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Plate Discipline and Josh Willingham

 


A quick note before moving to the main point of this post.  I was going to create a fanpost that numerically proved what we have all been watching since the season began (and then some, for players who have been on the team the last few years): The Giants swing at an inordinate amount of pitches outside of the strike zone.  But, since this is a Captain Obvious type of observation, I thought I'd just post some stats that shed light on the problem, make a few observations, and then move on to something that might elicit some reader response.

The following stats are taken from FanGraph's Plate Discipline page and are based on a minimum of 30 PA's and highlight the Giants' O-Swing %.  For those of you unfamiliar with this stat, O-Swing % is the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.

 

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Name O-Swing% 
Bengie Molina 48.00%
Pablo Sandoval 45.70%
Kevin Frandsen 39.30%
Barry Zito 38.50%
Nate Schierholtz 37.40%
Juan Uribe 33.50%
John Bowker 32.70%
Eli Whiteside 31.20%
Rich Aurilia 30.30%
Eugenio Velez 30.00%
Aaron Rowand 29.80%
Andres Torres 29.00%
Emmanuel Burriss 28.90%
Randy Winn 28.70%
Tim Lincecum 28.60%
Travis Ishikawa 27.50%
Edgar Renteria 26.00%
Matt Cain 25.70%
Matthew Downs 21.70%
Fred Lewis 19.40%

 

A few observations:

 

  1. The average O-Swing % for the NL is 24.48%.
  2. Bengie and Pablo rank dead last and next to last of all qualified NL players.  Alfonso Soriano ranks 3rd at 36.7%. 
  3. Only 9 qualified NL players have an O-Swing % higher than 30%.  Therefore, based on their O-Swing %, the Giants, on a nightly basis, field a lineup of some of the least disciplined hitters in the NL.
  4. Matt Cain is better at recognizing a strike than almost every other player on the team and has been performing at a similar rate for his entire career.
  5. Kevin Frandsen swinging at nearly 40% of the pitches thrown outside the zone may have played a large role in his demotion and Down's promotion (especially, given the fact that only Lewis swings at less pitches outside of the zone than Downs). Also, Frandsen's career O-Swing % is 32%.
  6. If Fred Lewis could make more contact, he would be a very dangerous hitter.  Unfortunately, his 82% Z-contact rate (Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone) puts him in the bottom 10 of qualified NL hitters.  
  7. Only Renteria ranks in the top 35 (#34) of qualified NL hitters for Z-Contact %.
  8. The Giants, as a team, have the highest O-Swing % (32.3%, the only team above 30%) and, consequently, see the least amount of pitches in the strike zone (47.8%) of any team in baseball.

Now to my main point, if you're still here:  If he's available, the Giants should trade for Josh Willingham.  

A quick look at his Plate Discipline numbers:
2009 O-Swing %: 16.4 
Career O-Swing %: 18.0

Some factors in his favor: 

  1. On a team desperate for disciplined hitters, Willingham would easily rate as the most disciplined player on this team.
  2. He bats RH and the Giants need a right handed hitter.
  3. He can play the OF and 1B.  Hell, he could even back up at C if absolutely necessary!
  4. He's only making 2.95 million this year and is arbitration eligible for the next 2 years. FanGraphs says he has been worth 9.9 million dollars this year.  Can you say value?
  5. He would have the highest OPS (.978) of anyone on our team.  His career OPS (.852) would be #2 on this year's team, so even a regression would benefit our team.

With all of the talk of the Giants going after Dunn and Nick Johnson, this seems to me to be an incredible no-brainer. Though he is an injury risk, this is a risk the Giants should take. I can't imagine that the Nationals would want that much in return for him, but given that his name hasn't been brought up too much (mark me down as very surprised that Hank Schulman didn't mention him at all here) maybe he isn't available. I don't know what the Giants would offer in return for Willingham, but I think he could be a great value for this team and it would be shrewd of Sabean to pluck him from the NationaLOLs.

Ok, that's all I've got.  Clearly, I value disciplined hitting and think the Giants would be better off with more players like Willingham.  Few things are more frustrating than watching hitters swing at bad pitches. Disciplined hitters swing at better pitches and force pitcher's to throw more pitches, both of which are good things.  Please comment on any of the above. Disagree, submit counter-arguments, etc... Just show a little R-E-S-P-E-C-T, Aretha style.  
GO GIANTS!

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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I wanted Willingham before reading this Fanpost anyway, so you’ve got my support. He’d be a nice pickup.

by Natto on Jul 24, 2009 1:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Nice post. Willingham has been #1 on my wish list all July.

by oneflapdown on Jul 24, 2009 1:34 PM PDT reply actions  

Thanks for the info. Great stuff there.

by jctGamer on Jul 24, 2009 1:37 PM PDT reply actions  

Been wanting Willingham since May.

by Hobbes2d on Jul 24, 2009 1:37 PM PDT reply actions  

I remember him getting some flack for not being “interested” in the game.
That said I would take him in a heart beat.

Minor White > Ansel Adams

by say hey nation on Jul 24, 2009 1:40 PM PDT reply actions  

isn’t that Adam Dunn?

by jctGamer on Jul 24, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

hard to get interested in a Nationals game

"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."

by i did my job on Jul 24, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

SWOOOOOOP (not being sarcastic)

Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...

by rotorueter on Jul 24, 2009 1:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Freddie is the only guy with a modicrum of patience

and keeps getting yelled at for it.

Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.

by Aadik on Jul 24, 2009 1:43 PM PDT reply actions  

It’s not his patience we yell at. It’s the looking at strike 3 and playing soccer out in LF.

My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman

by Goofus on Jul 24, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bend it like Lewis?

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!

by Lyle on Jul 24, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bend it like Beckham

Lose it like Lewis

Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).

by EliminateMe on Jul 24, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Goofus, UZR has him as an above-average LF

His range makes up for a lot of those mental errors. I just think its Jeter syndrome; we’d rather see a guy not get there in the first place, rather than get there and make an error; net effect is the same.

Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.

by Aadik on Jul 24, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Do want

God this team is a bunch of hackers

Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)

by CB30 on Jul 24, 2009 1:44 PM PDT reply actions  

Nate Schierholtz sucks

by superk1ng on Jul 24, 2009 1:48 PM PDT reply actions  

You take that back!

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!

by Lyle on Jul 24, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Do also want

Willingham would be a near perfect fit.

Everybody loves money

by fwoty oz on Jul 24, 2009 1:56 PM PDT reply actions  

and probably not that expensive

Everybody loves money

by fwoty oz on Jul 24, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I remember discussing Willingham for Lewis prior to the season

And a lot of people that was a horrible idea because Fred Lewis was the better player. (it was actually Molina and Lewis for Willinggam/Gaby Sanchez)

How times and consensus have changed.

Truth be told, while I still like Willingham, I wouldn’t necessarily want him now because of cost. Henry Sosa? Sure, why not. But WAS would probably want something from the Sanchez/Neal/Rodriguez/Barnes pile, to which I would say no.

by NeifiChicken on Jul 24, 2009 1:59 PM PDT reply actions  

As for the plate discipline thing...

I think that speaks a great deal about Sabean and his flaws. I would almost go as far as to say Sabean might purposely look to win with hitters that don’t have Plate discipline just so he can prove all those “no good, uppity young stats kids” wrong.

That’s probably not true, but if there was one GM in baseball that would do such a thing, it would be Sabes.

by NeifiChicken on Jul 24, 2009 2:05 PM PDT reply actions  

Funny I didn’t know Sabes and Bengie Molina were the same person.

by Hobbes2d on Jul 24, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

I can’t imagine Sabean would actually have that type of approach, but it definitely begs the question, what sort of analytical tools does he employ to evaluate free agents, prospects, etc.?

by boolemaster on Jul 25, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

hammer time

  i’d love to stick willingham in left for the rest of the year. while we’re at it, we could probably get kelly johnson for relatively cheap at 2b.

by giantdonkey on Jul 24, 2009 2:07 PM PDT reply actions  

Johnson and Willingham both seem like players the Giants could get for cheap. Especially Johnson, considering it seem like he’s deep in the doghouse right now.

by boolemaster on Jul 24, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Nats asking price may be too high. The Redsox wanted Nick Johnson but the asking price was too high so they settled for LaRoche. I don’t think they’re going to trade any of their guys away unless somebody blows them away with an offer.

and for anyone wondering
Nick Johnson: 14.7 % this year(4th best in baseball), 13.5 % for his career

by superk1ng on Jul 24, 2009 2:10 PM PDT reply actions  

Good post.

On a related note, Carney Lansford walked 7.2% of the time. While not Bengie territory, it’s still low, and another indication as to the organizational philosophy.

by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Jul 24, 2009 2:14 PM PDT reply actions  

Carney also hit .300 + a lot of the time. Not many guys on the Giants are capable of that other than Pablo and Winn.

by Hobbes2d on Jul 24, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Question re O-swing (which I hope to god is totally unrelated to the O-face)

Does it mean the percentage of all pitches the guy swings at are outside the strike zone, or rather does it mean that of all pitches outside the strike zone, the guy swings at this percentage of them.

Example: Big Momentum has an O-swing of 48%. Is that saying that 48% of his swings are at pitches out of the zone, or that he swings at 48% of all non-strike pitches he gets?

Thank you, though. Very interesting post. Sobering, in fact. (Which I don’t appreciate!)

Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.

by Mayor of 311 on Jul 24, 2009 2:15 PM PDT reply actions  

O-Swing% – Percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone

Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ

by Zetsuboushita on Jul 24, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

To clarify, it’s the percentage of pitches, so it’s the second one in your example. If it was the first one, it would be percentage of swings.

Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ

by Zetsuboushita on Jul 24, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Question re O-swing (which I hope to god is totally unrelated to the O-face)

…for Bengie and Pablo, it is absolutely related to the O-face

by KrazyKrabMeat on Jul 24, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

The median O-swing % is Eugenio Velez.

Yep, Velez has average discipline in the Giants org.

/sobs.

Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?

by tedfordfan on Jul 24, 2009 2:20 PM PDT reply actions  

lol…

/joins in sobbing

by KrazyKrabMeat on Jul 24, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

This post makes me sad.

Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.

by WilliamVanLandingham on Jul 24, 2009 2:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Very wary of trading for Willingham as he’s having a career year & would likely cost more than he’s worth. He’s a decent player but he’s likely to be a 2 – 2.5 win player going forward which isn’t a bad thing but it’s not worth giving up a lot of value for.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Jul 24, 2009 2:30 PM PDT reply actions  

Great post.

Thanks for explaining all that—it’s helpful. One thing that surprised me was where Frandsen was at. I always thought of him as a high-contact, hit ’em-hard-right-at-the-fielder kind of schwinger. This kind of blows that out of the water and makes me think I wasted precious nanoseconds defending him at his most recent (last?) demotion.

by Duelling Brandos on Jul 24, 2009 2:36 PM PDT reply actions  

to be fair, Frandsen has been treated like crap this year. He’s called up for only a few days at a time and been under a lot of pressure to show something quickly. I wouldn’t put much stock in any of his numbers this season.

Proud new dad of Edgardo errr Edgar Renteria!!!

by rxmeister on Jul 24, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

oh, definitely, he’s been ill treated. No question there. It was more that he’s been as hacktastic as the rest of the crew, SSS nothwithstanding.

by Duelling Brandos on Jul 24, 2009 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

If nothing else...

pick him up just to measure how bad Carney fucks up his discipline.

by KrazyKrabMeat on Jul 24, 2009 2:44 PM PDT reply actions  

Carney Lansford

is 100 times the hitting coach Joe Lefebre was.

by Unitard on Jul 24, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

So the solution is to platoon Matt and Timmy in left on days when they aren’t pitching? Got it!

by snafu on Jul 24, 2009 2:45 PM PDT reply actions  

Good, good post

by good I mean depressing, but also good

I think Willingham would be great, but I would rather get an infielder

Congratulations and Thank you Jonathan Sanchez.

by GrahamCrakalaka on Jul 24, 2009 3:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Willingham is actually a 1B thrust into an OF role.

by Natto on Jul 24, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

you said thrust. heh.

by jctGamer on Jul 24, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you’re saying he’s the anti-Ortmeier. Wait…What am I saying? Who the fuck is Ortmeier?

Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ

by Zetsuboushita on Jul 24, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

So we could play him at first base?

SO WE COULD DFA RICH AURILIA?

DO IT

GROUGTHINK ALERT

by groug on Jul 24, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Rosterbation

had to log in to post this, I usually just lurk…

If the Giants could get Willingham and Johnson from the Nats would people be willing to include Alderson?

hear me out before everyone tells me I should have never bothered logging in…

theoretically help is on the way from the Minors, especially a few guys with some power, like Neal and Villalona. But the Giants shouldn’t rush those guys. Willingham and Johnson (if they resigned him) would ably fill those positions through 2011 (at least for Willingham). At that point Neal will only be 24 and he may even be ready before that, but at least we won’t be pining for him as often.

The deal I am thinking of would be Willingham and Johnson for Alderson, Lewis, Ishikawa and a C-grade arm, like maybe Jesse English. Some might not be that impressed by that group, but as of preseason there are 3 of the Giants top 20 prospects (ishi was listed by Sickles).

Is it too much? maybe, but how much would the Giants miss those players? Clark and Barnes are probably equal prospects to English. Alderson would be hurt a bit, but the Giants sort of just replaced him with Wheeler.

I think the value to the Giants offense would be greater, as has been documented in this post. Everyone keeps saying the team needs two bats, there are two bats that bring an approach that is sorely lacking.

by bendito on Jul 24, 2009 3:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Worth considering.

Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.

by Mayor of 311 on Jul 24, 2009 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Willingham and Johnson for Alderson, Lewis, Ishikawa and a C-grade arm, like maybe Jesse English

This sounds like way too much to give up, to me. N.Johnson has cooled off considerably since his hot start, and he has less power than Ishi. His OBP is great, but with no speed and no one to knock him in, he’ll end up stranded on base a lot.

Personally, I think Willingham would be a solid add, but I’m not as sold on Johnson. He’s an injury risk, he’s pretty old, and he has no power for a 1B. The only thing he has going is his amazing OBP.

by The Double Deuce on Jul 24, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Johnson also isn’t close to Ishikawa defensively.

by Hobbes2d on Jul 24, 2009 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Freaking This ! Ishi may not be the prototypical 1B power bat, but the dude’s defense is smooth as silk.

I kind of miss the time when the Giants had one of the best defenses in the NL year after year.

My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!

by nvsfg on Jul 24, 2009 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

+1

Just concentrate on Willingham. Why muddy the water by adding Nick Johnson to the trade. Johnson’s too injury-prone, his D has deteriorated dramatically the last few years, and there’s no way he would re-sign with us in the offseason unless Sabean goes crazy and breaks the bank with an outrageous offer. If we really want Johnson we can wait until the offseason and try to sign him to a reasonable 1 or 2 year contract if he’s a Type B or less.

Getting .Willingham would not require Alderson – and I wouldn’t want him if it did. The Nats biggest need is in the bullpen, and we have plenty of excess there in the majors and minors. A package like Merkin, Joe Paterson, Ben Snyder and Bowker (or Lewis) would most likely get the job done, although they might want to sub Clayton Tanner for Paterson or Snyder. It’s not like the Nats value Willingham very highly. He’s not an everyday starter this year (he’s only played in 75% of their games), and if you check the stats you’ll see that he has 160 ABs less than Zimmerman and 120 less than Nick Johnson. To be fair, some of this is due losing about 12 games to a bad virus and a bereavement stint.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 25, 2009 12:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Naw. Alderson is untouchable unless you get something amazing in return. Willingham would be a great pickup, but isn’t in the amazing category. I’m not terribly enthusiastic about Johnson and never have been. He’s not a bad hitter, but even without the injury history, he’s never really had the power numbers you need to see from a corner infielder. Yankees weren’t terribly sad to let him go and he ended up as the number two part of the package that brought Vasquez to the Yankees (Juan Rivera was #1, and they got that part right.)

One thing to keep in mind about Willingham though – he’s in arbitration year #2, which make him a bit more expendable than he’d otherwise be since the Lerners aren’t exactly wild about spending money and he already got bumped up to $3M this year.

What also intrigues me about the Nats as a trade partner is that they are one of the few teams that match up extremely well with the Giants strength, which is lower upside-but-still potentially decent pitching. Throw in a Sadowski or Pucetas to their rotation and it’s an immediate upgrade to their staff, Valdez is better than anything they have in the bullpen, and ex-A/B the arms at AA are better than what’s left in Syracuse since anyone that can throw a strike has already been up for months (except for poor JD Martin, who finally got his chance and promptly got shelled by the Mets.)

By definition means the Nats are going to have to at least think seriously about taking a few of the 40 man arms off the Giants. They may decide they’re getting ripped off and not do a deal, but they’ll listen more closely than most.

by HaroldS on Jul 24, 2009 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I can’t see Sabean giving up Alderson for Willingham. My guess is Alderson only goes if Sabean gets someone back he can control for at least a year, preferably longer.

by boolemaster on Jul 24, 2009 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

hmm

Alderson is untouchable unless you get something amazing in return.

Why? I mean, it’s obvious that you want to get something awesome for every trade. That being said, does he really belong in the Bumgarner/Posey tier?

On 5/7, the best part of waking is up LOLDGERS in my cup.

by GameSix on Jul 27, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

No but he’s in the pretty damn good tier! He may not be in the Bumgarner/Posey tier but then that’s the elite top 10 prospects in baseball tier. Alderson belongs in the next tier, the top 50 (conservatively) prospects in baseball tier & that makes him a very good prospect who shouldn’t be traded unless you’re getting something amazing in return.

We’ve got spoilt by having such great prospects at the moment that we’re focusing on what Alderson isn’t (Posey/Bumgarner) and not on what he is which is a very valuable commodity.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed, Alderson is a valuable commodity. Which is why, if traded, it needs to be done with care. Let’s face it, if a realistic trade came along, Sabean would do it. Alderson has struggled at AA this year, which raises many concerns for the future. Remember Jason Grilli and Nate Bump? They brought back Livan Hernandez. So, how much value does Alderson really have?

by boolemaster on Jul 27, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good point about what he is versus what he isn’t. Still though, his stock will never be higher than it is right now. He won’t suddenly become a flame thrower w/super sweet control and jump to “elite” status. So let’s make a deal! The rotation is set anyway for the forseeable future, isn’t it? Lincy/Cain/Zito/Bumgarner/whatever

On 5/7, the best part of waking is up LOLDGERS in my cup.

by GameSix on Jul 27, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, and while I haven’t run the numbers since Sanchez was 3-9, I’m pretty sure “whatever” this year is like 5-12 (or worse). A .500 pitcher in that slot gets the wildcard lead back, and if Alderson projects out “whatever” is a 6 or 7 win improvement.

Not a lot of bats that can give you something like that in a trade, so I’ll stick with my something amazing comment.

by HaroldS on Jul 27, 2009 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes and no. I think some of the differentiation this year between the two – Bummy dominating, Alderson “struggling” – has been artificial based on Dodd and a couple other things. Bumgarner’s decision not to work on his offspeed stuff works for that level and that stadium (miss with a fastball, it ends up in someone’s glove in the outfield), but I’m not sure it’s wise longer term.

Small sample size, but my feeling is that Alderson is at a disadvantage pitching in a place where with the outfield back so deep he’s going to get dinked and dunked to death with his curve and change (39 H/31 IP home, 37/42.1 away) when someone makes contact, and at AA there are in fact more kids capable of catching up to a 91 mph fastball, so his strikeouts are down a bit too – .63/IP versus .85/IP last year. So basically, when he gets in a jam, people have scored a run or two they wouldn’t have last year. Hence, home ERA a full point higher than the road – on which he’s been 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA.

The good news about Alderson is that if anything his control is even better than it was last year – he’s projecting out to 28 walks versus 34 – and unlike Bummy he’s actually having to learn how to pitch now versus when he gets to the bigs.

Bumgarner probably has higher upside if he can develop a secondary pitch as a true #1 starter, but could also very well end up in the bullpen if he flames out. That’s the nature of the game with power pitchers; unless you’re a Maddux or Matthewson control pitchers aren’t your #1s. But at the same time, pitchers with laser control are a lot harder to find than some kid throwing 95.

Alderson may end up becoming a #4 if he can’t improve his fastball and change (and at 20, bit early to make that assumption), but with his control and secondary stuff is going to be in someone’s rotation for a loooong time. He may not end up being Maddux, but if his upside is David Wells and Mark Buehrle and his downside Brad Radke and John Lieber, I’d say you don’t trade him unless there’s one heck of an offer on the table.

by HaroldS on Jul 27, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Way too much if you ask me. You can argue that Johnson’s the better player than Ishikawa but he’s also injury prone & out of contract in the summer so i’m not sure i’d trade Ishikawa for him who’s under control for a while.

And there’s no way i’m giving up Alderson for Willingham, career year or not, i’m just not interested in giving up Alderson unless we’re getting a very good player (i.e noticeably above average) in return

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Jul 25, 2009 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Willingham to Giants

actually according to boswell from the washington post the giants have expressed interest in Willingham…

The rumor mill (no info from me) is that the Giants and Phils are interested in Wllingham and that the Giants are also looking at Nick. This is conventional wisdom.

link to boswell chat

Do they know to win the game a team has to actually score at least once?

by noahthek on Jul 24, 2009 4:19 PM PDT reply actions  

Meh. That doesn’t mean much at the moment.

by Natto on Jul 24, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Great post ! Thanks for the info. Made me sad and re-affirms what I thought was going on, but great work.

My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!

by nvsfg on Jul 24, 2009 8:22 PM PDT reply actions  

My surprise about the data is Rowand.

The only reason he doesn’t swing at as many off the plate pitches as Bengie or
Pablo is that too many pitchers don’t realize that he will swing at ball in the dirt,
outside, which bounce 5 feet in front of the plate, or that would hit him, when he
has a 3-2 count, bases loaded, and the game is on the line. He gets more pitches
over the plate, except vs. the N.L. west where they know he will swing at anything.

by bradleybear on Jul 24, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I really do not want to know what my o-swing% is on MLB09 The Show. I have terrible pitch recognition. Especially with Adam Dunn (who I signed as a FA and is playing 1st for me).

by Fresburg on Jul 25, 2009 9:16 AM PDT reply actions  

it's okay

In most baseball video games I just go up and hack. I’m trying to be slightly more patient, but that isn’t hard since I used to swing at like 95% of the pitches. Pitch recognition seems harder than in real life.

VOTE SANDOVAL
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Jul 25, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Seriously

Im up by like 6 runs in the 7th inning and the starter has only thrown 42 pitches

Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)

by CB30 on Jul 25, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Use the predict pitch for fastballs, look at the other possible pitches to get a feel at what’s coming. Then unless there’s 2 strikes, you’ll be able to let some balls go.

Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!

by Azmanz on Jul 26, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Out of curiosity

What were BLB’s O-Swing numbers 2001- 2003? I can only imagine.

Once I adopted Tim Flannery. I've since left him outside a fire station.

by pme on Jul 25, 2009 10:42 AM PDT reply actions  

2002: 11.5%
2003: 19.9%
2004: 8.3% (!!!)
2005: 10.4%

No data for 2001.

As for contact on balls within the strike zone (Z-Contact%) Bonds was 89% to almost 94% depending on year.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 25, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

That dude was pretty good.

by Natto on Jul 25, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

He’s no Placido Polanco in the Z-Contact% category.

Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ

by Zetsuboushita on Jul 25, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

What does everyone think it would cost to acquire Willingham?

Perhaps a reliever like Merkin or someone like Henry Sosa?

Although, it is also impossible that Willingham falls in the newly created “Zobrist” category: a player who seems to be available, but who is, in reality, highly regarded by his current organization.

Who knows, maybe Sabean has tried to get Willingham, but the Nats want too much?

by Squire_Boone on Jul 25, 2009 11:49 AM PDT reply actions  

Probably Merkin or Bobby Howry plus a non-prospect. Seriously, they seem to hate him.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 25, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Pretty sure it would take more than that

I think we’d have to give up more than 2 guys for him, because he’s still cheap for 2 more years with a good chance of signing him to a reasonable 3 year deal if he produces this year. I do think that you’re on track with the idea that the main component will be one of our current MLB relievers, but Howry is way too old for them to even consider. Also, we’d most certainly send back one of our excess young OFs (we’d suggest Lewis, they’d want Schierholtz, and then probably settle for Bowker) and at least 1 real prospect (someone in our top 15-25).

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 25, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I wrote the following about this above (my thinking was they want bullpen help first and foremost.):

A package like Merkin, Joe Paterson, Ben Snyder and Bowker (or Lewis) would most likely get the job done, although they might want to sub Clayton Tanner for Paterson or Snyder.

It seems like you think that would be too much?

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 25, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, not necessarily

I just proposed a starting point. What you proposed is probably fair, although we may not have to give up Bowker.

by Squire_Boone on Jul 26, 2009 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t know if he would even appeal to them, I just thought they’d want a possible replacement for Willingham since they don’t have a great set of OFs to begin with, and I figured with Willingham here there’s no way we’d have room for 3 LHs in our OF. Maybe they’d want FLew instead, but I’d want to keep Nate.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 27, 2009 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nats don’t need an OF back, they’d just promote Dukes.

I think the only reason they sent him down in the first place was to showcase Kearns/Willingham

by microwave donut on Jul 27, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Do you really think they believe Dukes is a long-term solution? BTW, that’s not a rhetorical question. I thought Dukes has jsut about worn out his welcome in Wash. He just seems to unreliable and inconsistent to count on to play every day for the next several years.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 27, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow

That is more run production than the giants get in a week.
It just goes to show you if you have a team with the plate
discipline to load the bases, and a hitter with enough
plate discipline to get his pitch and hit the grand slam
you have something, too bad Washington has almost
zero pitching.

by bradleybear on Jul 27, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

You should post about this more.

by xanthan on Jul 28, 2009 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Bengie and Rowand could hit 300

They have the ability with balls hit into play that are in the K zone,
unfortunately both of these guys swing at so many bad pitches,
it drops their BA significantly.

by bradleybear on Jul 27, 2009 10:13 PM PDT reply actions  

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