Dan Runzler - the 2010 SF Giant closer?
by Fla-Giant on Jul 23, 2009 1:33 PM PDT
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PrintThe Giants have a lot of good young pitching in the minors - both starting and relief. You already know the big names, but I want to highlight a guy that's flying under the radar and putting up the best numbers of any pitcher in our system.
Dan Runzler has been virtually unhittable so far this year. When you delve down into his stats they're shockingly impressive. He's only given up 2 runs and 12 hits in 43 innings pitched this year - less than 3 hits, and more than 13 Ks, per 9 innings pitched!
Here are his stats for this year (split between Augusta and SJ), you can see that, except for Ks, he's actually gotten better after being promoted to high A:
Augusta: 0.68 ERA / 0.8 WHIP / 19 games / 26.1 IP / 2 runs / 8 hits / 45 K / 13 BB / .093 BAA
San Jose: 0.0 ERA / 0.42 WHIP / 15 games / 16.2 IP / 0 runs / 4 hits / 18 K / 3 BB / .070 BAA
This guy looks like one good option to allow us to trade Brian Wilson this offseason, or sometime next season, while his value is still high. Runzler is a 24 years old (DOB = 3/30/85) lefty, so he's old for an A+ league. I'd like to see him promoted to AA soon to see if he continues to impress - maybe he can go up with our other A+ stud, Thomas Neal.
He's a big, strong guy at 6'4" and 215 pounds, so he should have no problem handling the load. Has anybody seen him pitch, or have a scouting report on him? What's the velocity on his FB? Does he have any good secondary pitches? What's his out pitch?
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I saw him hitting 94 in SJ about a month ago. He was regularly around 91-93.
and lol your avatar.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 23, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I posted a little blurb on Runzler about a month ago
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2009/6/17/912048/notes-from-san-jose-6-17-09#comments
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 23, 2009 1:43 PM PDT reply actions
Thanks for that
I remember reading that post, but for some reason the blurb on Runzler didn’t stick in my mind. I guess that’s because he was flying under even my radar back then.
As a lefty, if he can consistently pitch 92-94, with movement, out of the pen he might not need a great secondary pitch. If he can throw an average high-70s curve or changeup that is at least around the plate it would be tough to handle given the velocity on the FB.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
If we were going to deal Wilson, wouldn’t Affeldt be a better choice for the closer role than a 24-year old in High-A ball? I think you’re getting a little out of hand projecting him as a closer next year, although it does seems he has a chance to turn into something.
by AngelWillSaveUs on Jul 23, 2009 2:00 PM PDT reply actions
Not a bad idea
I wouldn’t be adverse to Affeldt being the closer to begin next year. I just think that he’s been much more valuable as the one guy we can count on to come in at any time in the game and get 2-6 outs while rarely letting the inherited runners score.
Don’t forget that Jeremy is a FA after next year, and if he continues to pitch like this he’ll command a huge salary increase that we can’t match – so we need to groom our own cheap closer next year. Besides, if Affeldt is the closer then we need another lefty in the pen to take over his role. I would think that Runzler would be the best choice for that, unless you believe Espinelli has found some magic down in Fresno.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yep. Trading Wilson is a great idea if we can get some legit talent for him.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
by rotorueter on Jul 23, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s way too conservative a demand for an idle rosterbation. There are lots of guys on that team that I’d like to have in addition to BWood (Morales, Maicer, Juan Rivera to name a few).
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
He’s very impressive in single-A, but so was Henry Sosa.
I DON’T WANT TO BE HURT AGAIN
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Apples and oranges
1. Sosa’s 2007 numbers in SJ weren’t nearly as good as Runzler’s, so far.
2. Sosa is a starter, Runzler’s a closer. You basically only need 1 ++ pitch and a 2nd average pitch to be a good closer in the majors. Starters need at least 2 + pitches and a 3rd average one. That, and stamina issues, is why good relievers move up much faster than good starters.
3. As I stated, Runzler needs to be promoted to Conn. soon so we can see how he performs there.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Tell that to Groug’s feelings.
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Jul 23, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions
To be fair, Sosa went downhill because he got hurt. It’s always a possibility with pitching prospects, hence the reason I won’t get too excited about guys unless they’re clearly something special. Injuries are also the reason we have the term TINSSAANAMBLA.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
it’s guys this this that make me wonder why we even have AA and AAA minor leagues…
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
That's easy
We have a AA team to crush the spirits of our hitters.
We have a AAA team to stockpile all the over-the-hill veterans and washouts that won’t fit on the big league roster.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Sigh...
This, sadly.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
I think all of them can fit on the big league roster, though.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
Wilson is good friends with Timmy,
That being said, do you want to mess with the chemistry CH3CH2OH
The best chemistry comes from winning titles
I think many on the team are quietly fed-up with Wilson’s antics. But, IMO, that’s beside the point. I want to trade Wilson after this season because:
1. I believe that the Giants will be a legit contending team beginning next year all the way through at least the 2012 season.
2. I don’t believe that Wilson ever will ever develop the temperament to consistently close out high-pressure, high-value games in September and during the playoffs – leading to several years of pennant chase heatbreak for Giants fans.
3. I think his trade value will be at it’s greatest over the next 6-8 months, since he won’t be put in many high-value games between now and then.
4. I believe that Wilson is the one expendable player currently on our MLB team that would be most in-demand by other teams. So, he’s the most likely to yield back a major upgrade at 2B, 1B, or corner OF. To get the best return we might have to package him with a lower-tier prospect or 2.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Not that I disagree, but...
I honestly don’t see Sabean trading Wilson anytime soon, what with the terrible situation we had at the closer’s position before Wilson came along, and the fear that we could go through that again if we got rid of Wilson.
Of course, if Sabean ends up being gone after this season, then who knows what will happen. But as long as Brian S is here, so is Brian W, methinks.
by The Double Deuce on Jul 23, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions
2. I don’t believe that Wilson ever will ever develop the temperament control? to consistently close out high-pressure, high-value games in September and during the playoffs – leading to several years of pennant chase heatbreak for Giants fans.
I really don’t believe in the magic closer temperament. Also, Runzler is a reliever. “Closer” is a specific job for a reliever. That’s like saying a batter is a “cleanup hitter” – as in “Molina is a cleanup hitter, and Whiteside is an 8th hitter.” No, Molina and Whiteside are catchers and hitters. Where they hit in the lineup is a decision for the manager, not a description of the guy’s position as a baseball player.
Also, I hope Runzler succeeds at higher levels, but I would be perfectly happy if he could become an effective major-league LOOGY. Anything better is gravy.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 23, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions
are Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, and Sergio Romo going to die or something?
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jul 23, 2009 3:08 PM PDT reply actions
Slow down.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jul 23, 2009 3:22 PM PDT reply actions
you’re asking questions about Runzler like u don’t know that much about him, yet you’re ready to trade Brian Wilson to make him our closer. As for Wilson’s trade value being high, it will ALWAYS be high because he’ good.
Proud new dad of Edgardo errr Edgar Renteria!!!
by rxmeister on Jul 23, 2009 3:26 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I want to trade Wilson no matter what Runzler does. IMO, he’s just not the type that we can rely on in the heat of a pennant/championship chase. I was merely proposing Runzler as a prime option, among several, in our system to replace Wilson. I admit that I’ve never seen him pitch and was going purely on his stats, but his numbers across 2 levels of A ball this year are ++ fantastic, and I did state that we need to see how he does in AA this year and wouldn’t trade Wilson until the offseason.
In my defense, I don’t believe more than 1 or 2 people on this site had ever seen MadBum pitch last year, but that didn’t keep anybody from annointing him the next great starter in SF for 2010 or 2011. In the end, stats and scouting reports are pretty much all anybody on this site can go by in evaluating prospects. One other thing, it’s much easier to project a reliever from the minors to the majors because they don’t need as deep of a repertoire. Just look at how much heat Drew Storen is generating already. His numbers across A and high A this year aren’t as good as Runzler’s, yet many talent evaluators are already projecting him as being in the Nat’s pen some time next year.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yeah but...
…the Nationals bullpen is currently anchored by Mike MacDougal, Julian Tavarez, Joe Beimel and Ron Villone. It doesn’t take too much to qualify for that pen.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
Huh, so he did.
Even so, you’ve gotta admit “be better than Julian Tavarez” isn’t a real tall order.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
CRAP!
I went to mlbtraderumors right after typing that and look what I find. The bottom part makes me :-(
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?&entry_id=44124
Eh, that’s just speculation by Schulman.
Also
I think that Brian “the loser” Sabean proves beyond a reasonable doudt that he is the worst GM in the majors. The Giants were 8 games out last week and Sabean sat on his but and didn’t pull a trade. I think if the Giants skid it is time to oust Brian “the loser” Sabean from the GM box and quickly replace him with Sandy Alderson. I’m not impress with the way Sabean has handled the trade deadline and thus this team is fadduing away. If the Giants lose I think that it is time for the team to get rid of Bruce Bochy too. I think that the Giants need to promote bench coach Ron Wotus. What a car wreck? How can you lose 4 in a row? This team has no hitting oither than The Killer Panda and Molina.
“The Killer Panda”? OK. And Molina is our only other good hitter? Uh… sure.
Judgment Day is coming
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Yeah, I especially liked “How can you lose 4 in a row?”
First, because the Giants haven’t actually lost 4 in a row.
Second, because among the teams that have lost 4 (or more) in a row this season are: Phillies, Cards, Cubs, Rockies, Astros, Braves…in short pretty much everyone in the NL other than the ducking Fodgers.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
I doudt that’s true…
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Jul 23, 2009 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions
You’re just like Sabean, sitting on your but while the team is fadduing away.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
I don’t believe more than 1 or 2 people on this site had ever seen MadBum pitch last year, but that didn’t keep anybody from annointing him the next great starter in SF for 2010 or 2011.
Um…
MadBum: tearing up low A ball as an 18 year old.
Runzler: tearing up low/high A ball as a 24 year old.
Huge difference. Runzler’s age is a big caveat to his performance. You’re right in saying we need to see how he fares in AA. (And AAA.)
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
I get what you're saying...
And it certainly is a good point that he’s about 2 years older than normal for High A. But, he’s more than dominating as one would expect for that age difference, and in this case we’re talking about a relief pitcher that we want to fast-track , so it’s actually better that he’s older and mature enough to be in the big leagues some time next year. Besides, this is ony Runzler’s 2nd full pro season – he was drafted and signed in the middle of the 2007 season – so it’s not like he’s been scuffling around in the minors for years trying to put it all togehter. If you look at his stats he’s been very good everywhere except for the 9 weeks he spent in Augusta last year.
The other thing is that Runzler is not just “tearing it up” – he’s off the charts (even beyond what MadBum did last year). In over half of a season he has a 0.42 ERA and a BAA of .084 – that’s insane. If he were a BoSox or Yankee prospect every media outlet would be trumpeting his assured future greatness by now. It’s not common, but it’s not unheard of a player putting things together and making the leap from A to the majors in one year (especially a relief pitcher) – Pablito did it for us last year in less than 1 season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Most likely
But did you notice that his BAA has actually dropped after arriving in the Cal League (down to .070)? So even if he gets 3 times worse he’ll still be at .210 – which is slightly better than what MadBum achieved in his 24 innings of work at SJ!
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
But look — you’ve got an older player with a small sample size performing the easiest job in baseball, relief pitching. It’s a situation that’s just ripe for flukes.
Joe Bateman had a monster year as the San Jose closer in 2005. Justin Hedrick had an even better year as the San Jose closer in 2006. Where are they now?
Runzler looks like a great find, and I’m glad he’s in the system, but personally I’m not going to even consider a reliever as a potential contributor till he gets to Fresno.
Funny – check minorleaguesplits.com for Runzler’s MLE – it actually predicts that his BABIP, which is .103 at SJ, will become .095 in the majors.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 23, 2009 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions
‘I want to trade Wilson no matter what Runzler does. IMO, he’s just not the type that we can rely on in the heat of a pennant/championship chase.’ What are you basing that on? All the pennant races the Giants have been involved in since Wilson has been here? Based on what I’ve seen of Wilson so far, (more effective in one run games, not effective in non save situations, nice job in his one all star game, not letting a bad outing affect him mentally) I would think he would be at his best in a pennant race. He was an all star last year, could have been an all star this year, and he’s young and cheap. Yet everyone wants to get rid of him. Last month everyone wanted Romo to replace him as closer, and how’s he doing lately? Wilson can put this team in a position where they won’t have to get a closer for the next decade, and that’s a good thing to have .Want to be forced to go back into the closer’s FA market and find another Armando Benitez?
Proud new dad of Edgardo errr Edgar Renteria!!!
1. I never called for Romo to replace Wilson, but I also think that people are overeacting to Romo’s recent bad outings.
2. If Wilson is as good as you say he is, we won’t control him for the next decade. He’s eligible for arb after next season, and he can be a FA at the end of the 2013 season. There’s no way we’ll pay him as much as he thinks he’s worth if he remains near the top of the saves list. Most of our $$$ will be tied up in the starters (Timmeh, Cain, Zito, …).
3. I don’t think that we’ll be forced back into the FA market for a closer. We have very good candidates in the minors now that should be ready in 1-2 years. Guys like Runzler, Edlefsen, Otero, Paterson, Sosa (I don’t think that he’ll stick as a starter), Yourkin, and Turpen, to name the most likely. That’s the way to win – promote from within as much as possible and don’t go gonzo on the big FA signings.
4. I don’t place much stock in saying that someone was selected to the All-Star game by the World Series team manager. Every year there are a few pitchers and subs that make it on the team excel for another year or 2, then sink back to oblivion.
5. I’m basing my opinion on his inability to consistently throw strikes with anything but his FB (even that comes and goes), his penchant to put a lot of runners on base (even in 1 run games), and the fact that he always falls back on his FB in high-pressure situations. He has yet to be in a high-value game in his short career because the Giants have sucked up until the last 9 weeks, so this is all conjecture. But it’s been obvious that he has trouble against smart, patient teams – like the ones that consistently make it into the playoffs. I want to win a World Series, not just make a playoff run, and I don’t believe that Wilson will survive against the playoff teams that we’ll likely meet. Teams like the Dodgers, Phils, Yankees, BoSox, and Angels will just wait him out, clog the basepaths, put runners in motion, and drive a guy like Wilson crazy. Even the Mets whipped-up on him in the series at AT&T 2 months ago using that MO.
6. It’s not that I’m saying it’s a certainty that Wilson will struggle in the future. What I do know is that we have great SP and RP that are ready to compete for a title right now, and are well-stocked in the minors at both positions for the future. However, everybody agrees that we need much better hitters at at least 2 of the following postions: 1B, 2B, SS, LF, RF, and C. When I look at our farm system the only one that I see possibly being filled within the next 1.5 years is C. Therefore, I come to the conclusion we need to go to the FA or trade market to fill our need(s). There appear to be no FAs this offseason that would be a good fit, that we can afford, and/or that would choose to play at AT&T. That leaves the trade market. In order to get anything good in return we’ll have to give up somebody that other teams want. I don’t want to trade our top 4 prospects (Posey, MadBum, AnVil and Neal) or our best starting pitchers (Timmeh, Cain, and J. Sanchez). That pretty much leaves us with Wilson and Alderson (and perhaps Affeldt) as the main chips we have to land an impact bat that won’t be gone after next year. IMO, it would be dumb to trade Alderson now, unless some team really steps up with a good offer, because his perceived value is low now. On the other hand, Wilson’s perceived value is high now, and is likely to remain that way unless he implodes over the next 2 months as we struggle to make the playoffs, or he implodes while we’re in the playoffs.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Closers don’t generally bring back an impact bat. And if you have noticed all of Wilson’s flaws, do you still think GMs will ignore those flaws, or be ignorant of them, and give us an impact bat?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 23, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t share the Wilson hating on the board. Bottom line is not as much his lack of control but lack of a real secondary pitch to get batters off his fastball, which makes his control problems far worse than they should be. With a real change of speed he’d be getting swing throughs on those pitches rather than foul balls when he pulls his best imitation of he-that-shall-not-be-mentioned-from-Game-6-in-2002.
A couple weeks ago Krukow finally said what I’ve been arguing for a while, which is that the only way he becomes a truly elite closer is to develop a changeup. Personally, I’d settle for anything consistently in the strike zone offspeed, but I’ll trust the pros on his delivery being set for the changeup more than anything else.
Then again, by definition most relievers end up as such because they are one or two pitch guys and can’t go through a batting order more than once. You can either change sightlines or speed, and he’s too wild to do the former, so he’d best learn to do the latter.
I don’t think he’s beyond redemption by any means, and in the next couple of years if he does what he really needs to could end up moving from a nerve racking but decent closer that reminds me more than a little bit of Brantley with a mohawk, a better fastball, and a ’tude to someone ranked in the true elite of the game. Not bad for a 24th round pick with a blown out arm.
That said I’d agree with one part – if he could develop into what I think he might, it’s unlikely the Giants could really afford to keep him since closers always get paid far too well on the FA market, and more importantly there’s more than enough pitching talent available to develop a replacement. Of the frontline MLB pitching staff, he’s the most tradeable piece for the organization, but also as has been said it’s rare for closers to bring back comparable trade value.
Fair enough
We both agree that Wilson needs to develop at least an average secondary off-speed pitch that he can throw for strikes more often than not – or at least make hitters think that he can so they don’t sit on his FB. What we don’t appear to agree on is the likelihood this will happen. He’s supposed to have been working on this for almost 2 years now (including the past 2 offseasons), and I don’t see much progress, if any. Not to say that it couldn’t still happen – maybe he just needs the confidence to throw it in game situations.
I also agree that the history of trading closers hasn’t often yielded back a cornucopia of talent. However, I think this case is different, because we would be trading a young, top-of-the-line closer that would be comparitively cheap, and under team control through the end of the 2013 season. I’ve racked my memory and I can’t think of any closer in a similar career situation that has been traded in the past. So, IMO, the demand for Wilson should be higher than what has been historically the norm. Another thing I would add is that I never said that Wilson would be the only one in the trade package – just the prime component. I think that we’d probably have to add a tier 2 prospect, and maybe a tier 3, in order to get back an established impact position player. If we wanted to go after a MLB-ready prospect the package would probably be less.
The teams that I believe we should target would be (in no particular order):
1. Rays – closer by committee now, they need a dedicated guy now that Price is a starter. They have to do something to close the gap between them and the Sox and Yanks.
2. Yankees – Mariano will be 40 in November, I’m sure that they’d love an heir-apparent to use as a setup man until Rivera walks off into the sunset. Then they would have the flexibility to move Hughes back into the rotation.
3. Marlins – they basically heve nobody now, I think a Wilson-for-Uggla trade would be mutually beneficial.
4. Brewers – Trevor Hoffman will be 42 this year, and is a FA at the end of this season. They’re paying Hoffman $6M – they might want to replace him with Wilson for < $1M and use the savings to sign (or re-sign) other players. Do you think they’d take Wilson and a prospect for JJ Hardy?
5. Cubs – I don’t think that they’re comfortable with Gregg as their long-term closer. What about Wilson and prospects for Jake Fox?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The Brewers would probably send someone with Hardy for Wilson. They are frustrated with him and have top prospect Alcides Escobar waiting for his shot.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 26, 2009 3:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Everyone wants to get rid of him because he is a douche. There’s no logic there, just good old douche-hatin’. Can’t argue with that.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 23, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Wilson is not in the league of RIvera, K-Rod and Hoffman, but to send him packing to try out a guy who has never been to the bigs for the closer position is quite ludicrous.
However, if some team wants a closer with a mohawk and sweet tats so badly that they are willing to trade a proven major league hitter for him (preferably 1B/RF/LF) then by all means sayonara B-Weeeeez.
Mo'ped Money, Mo'ped Problems
It may be time to promote Runzler to AA, which is something I mentioned yesterday in the minor lines comments, as well as noting every time he throws another scoreless inning; keeping in mind he is 24 his stuff is obviously working. I saw him a week and a half ago come into the game with the bases loaded and get out of the jamb and then throw another scoreless inning. I wasn’t in a position to tell what kind of “stuff” he had, but it worked.
If he’s 24 and that good, he should be able to handle AA or AAA, right?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 26, 2009 3:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Sadowski Runzler threw (fill in the blank) scoreless innings! He is awesome!
Minor White > Ansel Adams
It’s different in this case since Runzler actually strikes people out and keeps his walks low.
Judgment Day is coming
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