More FanGraphs Goodies

No doubt many already know about the series Dave Cameron is doing over at FanGraphs. He assesses the top 50 players in baseball in terms of trade value. I've linked to the intro, but he's done from 50 down to 25 already.

SPOILER ALERT!
No Giants yet, but I wondered what folks thought about which of our players will show up in the top 25. Lincecum will be there (top 10, even if he will be super-2 arb), and I expect Cain as well (maybe in the next group). Sandoval? He is rather young, and rather awesome. What about Posey or the MadBum? Only one minor leaguer has made it thus far - Jason Heyward of the Braves. I kind of expect Posey to make it, but not MadBum. I didn't look to see what the trend has been in recent years he's done this.

4 months ago BigO 25 comments 0 recs |

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You linked the intro, but apparently you didn’t read it. Fail.

Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ

by Zetsuboushita on Jul 15, 2009 11:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

right – didn’t see the Pablo comment. any thoughts on Giants in the final 25?

by BigO on Jul 15, 2009 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tim should be between 5-10ish. Cain maybe in the low 20’s

Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)

by CB30 on Jul 16, 2009 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

there is a heated argument, worth reading (or skimming), about Sandoval in the comments section

by campanari on Jul 15, 2009 11:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

There are guys in the top 50 that Sandoval wouldn’t be traded for. He is fast becoming a face of the franchise with Tim.

Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)

by CB30 on Jul 16, 2009 12:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

As mentioned, Sandoval isn’t in it & so i assume the only Giants players will be Cain & Lincecum which is probably reaonsable (although an argument could be made for Sandoval).

The list itself is inherently subjective (which is fine as long as that’s what you take it for) but there’s a few strange choices. Heyward is clearly a great prospect but seems to be hugely overrated in this list & i’d easily trade him for a lot of players behind him.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Jul 16, 2009 12:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Cain won’t make it. He’s not more valuable than some pitchers who have already appeared, like Billingsley and Josh Johnson.

by Evan on Jul 16, 2009 4:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

But on the same note you could say that he’s more valuable than quite a few that have already appeared & so he should make it. I mean if he isn’t on this list, given some of the others that are, then that’s a frankly ridiculous decision.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Jul 16, 2009 4:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The rankings of the pitchers seem arbitrary, but perhaps that’s inevitable with young pitchers.

Pitchers like Buchholz and Hanson and Chamberlain are speculative plays. They’re not as good as Cain yet, but they have great upside and they have years of team control ahead of them. Cain is a very good pitcher with a cheap contract, but that contract runs out in two and a half years.

by Evan on Jul 16, 2009 6:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True, like i said it’s inherently subjective & arbitrary list (as mine or anyone else’s would be) & so it’s not worth reading too much into.

I think there’s too much emphasis on “potential” in the list that is downplaying the very decent chance that players don’t always reach that potential. There’s no way i’d trade Cain (or equally a similar player on another team such like Gonzalez) straight up for Bucholz, Hanson, Chamberlain or Gordon Beckham & i’d imagine most teams would feel the same. They are under team control for longer but there’s a very good chance they don’t turn out anywhere near as good. Also, there’s a question of linearity, would you rather a 4 win player under control for 3 years or a 2 win player under control for 6?

The worst example to me is Heyward as he’s clearly a great prospect but he’s hardly played above A ball & has a huge chance of not reaching his potential. To take a Giants example, i’d have a hard time turning down Bumgarner (who’s a similar level prospect to Heyward) straight up for most of the players on the list.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Jul 16, 2009 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depends on circumstances. I wouldn’t trade Cain now, since we’re in the race, but come the off-season, I’d probably deal him for Beckham or Heyward if they still look good. And that goes for other teams too: the Red Sox have plenty of starting pitchers right now, so they’d doubtless rather have Buchholz than Cain, but the Yankees would probably leap at the chance to trade Joba for Cain.

I do think he has jumped the gun on Heyward. Buster Posey, to pick a name, has a better translated batting line this year than Heyward does. Heyward is two years younger and has a lot more room for growth, but he has far less defensive value, so that’s pretty close to a wash for me.

by Evan on Jul 16, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Straight up or Beckham^Heyward + more = Cain Or Beckham^Heyward= Cain?

I would say true T.O.R. arms ( Cain ,Billingsworth etc) that is young and has stuck at the MLB level without injuries is just about a scare a commidty there is in the game.

That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.

by daveinexile on Jul 16, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

doh!

Billingworth= Billingsley

That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.

by daveinexile on Jul 16, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

haven’t looked at the numbers lately, but is he that far off these guys? plus, he has the same amount of time until FA as Billingsley, but because of his contract, will presumably make less money in that time, no?

by BigO on Jul 16, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s not far off, but when you look at FIP, fastball velocity, etc., you have to give them a slight edge.

I think Billingsley has an extra year before free agency, but I’m not sure.

by Evan on Jul 16, 2009 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

looks like you are right

21-25 just posted

by BigO on Jul 16, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree and I’m kind of pissed about it, but not really surprised. One of these days Cain’s xFIP will be his real ERA and then they’ll be laughing!

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Jul 16, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

WCW WAS RIGHT

Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...

by rotorueter on Jul 16, 2009 6:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Posting what I posted there

While you may be right that Sandoval will age well, it’s wrong to put Fielder on and Sandoval off if you’re excluding Pablo because of his weight. They’re similar body types, both surprisingly fast for their weight, but Pablo, while not a good with the bat, is close to him in WAR and has 2 more years of club control!

Putting Prince on and Sandy off is wrong in my opinion. Sure, Sandoval isn’t having quite as good of a year, but he’s younger and cheaper for longer.

Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.

by MonkeyChow on Jul 16, 2009 7:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

CALM DOWN!!!!!!

Minor White > Ansel Adams

by say hey nation on Jul 16, 2009 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can understand Sandoval not being included on the list, mainly based around the fact that he’s not proven himself over multiple seasons & so there’s some uncertainty going forward, but i agree the snarky reason they gave is pretty poor. He’s only 22 and so his weight is more an issue with the longetivity of his career which isn’t a factor in these calculations.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Jul 16, 2009 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do get the small sample sized aurgement but I find the whole body type tumps numbers aurgement very ammusing comming from a saber based crowd. Chunky = Fielder… maybe not… Mr Puckett’s baseball card would like a would word with those people. And CF is a much more demanding postion than 3rd.

That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.

by daveinexile on Jul 16, 2009 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fielder has a slightly longer track record of success…

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Jul 16, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zorbist at 49? This is a guy whose glove plays 2 premium defensive positions very well and team controlled for 3 more years? I get the feeling someone is using a weighted criteria system better geared to estimating farmhands at different levels of development and not to players that are "sticking" or established at the Big league level but still young. It will be an interesting read but I sense train wreck coming.

That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.

by daveinexile on Jul 16, 2009 8:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Timmy

rolling in at #9. All the guys above him are hitters, as Cameron has to take into account the inherent fragility of a pitcher’s health. I still can’t imagine dealing him straight up for Braun (#8) or D-Wright (#7), but there you go.

by BigO on Jul 17, 2009 1:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs