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sandoval adjustments (courtesy of fangraphs)

I was looking at pablo's fangraphs page recently and found some of the numbers pretty interesting. I thought I'd try to see how the league has adjusted to him since last year. Of course, the 2008 sample size isn't ideal, but it's not terribly small either. Here are some of the more interesting things I found.

Star-divide

Plate discipline: Not surprisingly, pitchers are throwing a lot fewer strikes (47% to 38%). The difference is even more pronounced on the first pitch strike %, going from 71% to 59%. However, pablo is swinging at less pitches outside the zone (54% to 45%). I didn't check this earlier in the season, so I don't know if the change happened over the offseason or during the season. While it's still not a good number, it's nice to see improvement. Also of note: pablo is swinging at slightly more strikes, but swinging less overall.

Pitch selection and values: The biggest difference here is the increase in fastballs thrown to him, by over 6 percentage points. I would have expected pitchers to try to get him to chase more junk, but I guess they chose the high or inside fastballs. They are throwing a few less changes, curves, and sliders, with more cutters (another fastball, interestingly). The strange thing is, pablo has been hitting fastballs better this year, with his wFB/C (runs above average per 100 fastballs) slightly higher than in 08. He has improved even more on the cutter (still below average), the curve (good), and the change (fourth in the majors in wCH/C). So while pitchers have adjusted their gameplan against him, pablo has actually improved against most pitches.

Meanwhile, his walk rate and k rate are both up. So is his isop (slg - avg).

Batted balls: His line drive% has come down from 25.9% to a more human 19.5%. Virtually all of the "lost" line drives have moved over into increasing his fly ball%. (As a result of the more fly balls, his GB/FB ratio has dropped from 1.56 to 1.25.) He's hitting fewer popups, though, which is nice. Another change is on hr/fb: it has nearly doubled, from 8 to 16%. Now, I'm no stat expert, but I believe that is believed to be in the players' control, correct, not something that regresses to the leaguewide mean? As for his babip, it's still a lofty .358, although that's actually .009 less than last year.

 

So the line drives have tapered off, unfortunately, but the patience and power seem to have improved. I would say the trends are generally positive. Hopefully we don't find out later that the relatively small sample sizes involved here don't make all this worthless. (And yes, this could have been a link in a fanshot, but isn't it easier when some of the numbers are highlighted for you? I hope so.)

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

1 recs  |  Comment 23 comments

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hr/fb

generally stays close to a player’s historical averages, but that’s not helpful here. 16% is high (the average is somewhere around 10-11%), but not unsustainable for a huge power hitter. For example, Pujols has an average of 20% or so and has never been lower than 15% or higher than 25%. Ryan Howard has an ungodly 32.3% career hr/fb ratio, and Prince Fielder is around 20%. I’m not ready to say Pablo’s power is equal to any of these hitters’, but he’s close enough that it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll sustain it, or even increase that number over time.

"Snow woulda had it!!!"
Self appointed president, ruler, dictator, czar and potentate of the Free Gerald Society. As of... right now.

by beat_la_25 on Jul 14, 2009 4:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A third of Howard's fly balls are homers?

That’s crazy.

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Jul 14, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

he does play in a little league field though

Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis.

by j14 on Jul 14, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

half his games, remember. but yeah, that’s ridiculous. 4.6% higher than Thome, who’s the next highest in the last 7 years (fangraphs only has fb data since 2002). Lamar is 3rd, at 25.1%

"Snow woulda had it!!!"
Self appointed president, ruler, dictator, czar and potentate of the Free Gerald Society. As of... right now.

by beat_la_25 on Jul 14, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

roughly .260 avg with 50 homers every year for the past 3 years? Thats bound to create some kind of a funky stat.

Thing A

by sam23 on Jul 14, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He is a true two outcome hitter (I think thats how they describe it) HR or K
The games I have been to at the “bank” he has smashed the ball, I think the bank would only had 5-6 hr a yr for him

Minor White > Ansel Adams

by say hey nation on Jul 15, 2009 7:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This data may not even exist, but it would be interesting to see which pitches outside the zone Pablo is laying off of. Obviously Pablo is never going to be selective at the plate, we just wanted him to lay off the extreme balls – pitches at his head and feet, or 2 feet off the plate. It would be great if the 9% drop in swings at balls have mostly been from him laying off of the essentially unhittable pitches while he continues to offer at balls that are near the strike zone that he can square up on.

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Jul 14, 2009 9:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It exists as PFX data.

Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ

by Zetsuboushita on Jul 14, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did not understand a single word of this, but cool!

by shanghaijim on Jul 14, 2009 9:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

did anyone

get a distance on that jack he hit during the no-hitter? hittrackeronline hasn’t updated since 7/10.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Jul 14, 2009 9:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Kruk and Kuip mentioned during the broadcast that it was around 450 feet.

by deuce deuce on Jul 14, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Est. 805,343 feet.

by Natto on Jul 14, 2009 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only?

GROUGTHINK ALERT

by groug on Jul 14, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You’re msising a few zeros at the end…

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Jul 15, 2009 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m guessing “true” distance around 450.

Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.

:-(

by Cookyman on Jul 15, 2009 5:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

young age means likely to make positive adjustments

I expect him to continue to make positive adjustments, and hopefully with maturity he will gain additional patience at the plate, unlike Bengie.

by bradleybear on Jul 14, 2009 10:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Pablo already has 10x the patience that Bengie does.

by Natto on Jul 14, 2009 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lincecum and Cain have 33% more patience than Bengie does.

by deuce deuce on Jul 14, 2009 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the incredible hulk has more patience than bengie

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Jul 15, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

PABLO FEVER IS CERTAINLY CATCHING!

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Jul 15, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m loving all the national outrage over Panda getting fuc$#d by Charlie Manuel for the ASG. It’s nice to know that the rest of the baseball world is loving this guy almost as much as we are.

by tyrannoman on Jul 15, 2009 5:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The daily Pablo flamewars at FanGraphs are pretty amusing.

by Grant on Jul 15, 2009 11:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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