Second-Half Ramblings
by NateisGreat on Jul 13, 2009 12:58 PM PDT
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Well, the break is here, and we've got 49 wins!!! We've got 2 of the best starting pitchers in the NL , one of the best bullpens in the game, and a baseball-clubbing Panda manning third base! But now I think it's time for the brass to make some tough decisions.
First off, there's the trade situation. Everyone knows what our biggest need is: Johnny Cleanup Hitter. Problem is, he's not available right now. We've heard small talk of Dye, Victor Martinez, Uggla and Holliday. But it doesn't appear to me that any of those 4 will be suiting up for us this season. Rod Brooks is on the radio right now talking about a Sanchez for Holliday deal, but I don't really see that happening either.
Right now, the only rumors I'm seeing are the scenarios with the Pirates. But I'll say this: If our only trade partner is Pittsburgh, I'm hanging up the phone. I really like Juan Uribe... the dude can play ball, and he hasn't disappointed in his starting role. I think he's a find candidate to man second base in the second half. I know Freddy Sanchez hits for average, but so is Juan right now, and lately he's been absolutely clubbing the ball. He's also much cheaper than Sanchez. As for Zach Duke, I don't think I really need to adress him. A good rookie season is all he's got on his resume. Yes, his numbers are good this year, but I ultimately see him putting up Barry Zito (Post-Oakland) numbers for most of his career. I wouldn't trade any prospect of even moderate value for him.
I know there are plenty of people who think we need to make a move in order to make some noise, but I just don't see anything out there right now that would really strengthen this team... now if a guy like Holliday REALLY becomes available in the next couple weeks, then maybe we get in there and see if we can't put something together. But I (like most of you) am not trading MadBum, Posey or Angel V. If I'm Sabean, I'm really promoting the names of guys like Thomas Neal, Brandon Crawford, Scott Barnes, and Henry Sosa. All very talented players.
Now, for the players who currently wear the orange and black. We start the second half on a 10-game road trip that could really set things up for the deadline. Big Unit is down for a while, but we've still got Timmy and Matty. But we've also got a kid with only 3 starts under his belt (Sadowski), Mr. Up and Down (Zito), and a very inconsistent pitcher coming off a no-hitter (Sanchez).
How the latter three hold up will decide a lot of things. All three of them may very well crap out... leaving us in BIG trouble. If Sadowski falters, we can possibly plug in Joe Martinez, but are there really any other good options available right now to start? Yes, but we won't see them. I doubt Kevin Pucetas will see the bigs this season, and that's on team management for not placing him on the 40-man before the season. Guess he's not as valuable as Brian Bocock????
Currently, we've also got 6 outfielders on the roster, and one of them has to go. If I'm in charge, it's Freddy. I know we'd probably lose him if he went on waivers, but at this point I can live with that. We know Bowker can destroy AAA pitching, and although he looked very bad in his first few games up this season, his bat did start to come alive yesterday. I think he needs to stay on the roster, and split time with Nate. They both can help the offense, as can Andres Torres. Rowand and Winn beat their bodies up on a nightly basis, and will need some days off in the second half. With those 5 guys, every combination we throw out there should be competetive. I just don't see a spot for Fred in the mix. Very tough decision for management to make on this one, though.
Do I believe the team we have right now can stay in contention? Yes. They have proven they can be competetive with the just about every team in the NL. Our biggest competition is within our own division, and the games with LA and Colorado will probably decide the outcome of the season. But I like this team, and I think they can keep a level head throughout the second half. With Tim and Matt pitching the way they are, and Pablo literally getting better every night, things could really be looking up. Hope everyone enjoys the break, and here's to a successful second half. Go Giants, and BEAT LA!
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A lineup of Rowand, Sanchez, Panda, Holliday, B-money, Winn, Ishi, Renteria would be legit.
Bench could be Torres, Uribe, Nate, Bowker, and Whitesides – would give us a couple righties, a couple lefties, and a switch hitter.
BOWKERMANIA WASN'T MADE FOR THE BENCH
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 13, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Bowker could sub for Holliday and Ishi a couple of days a week. I’m a Bowker believer but in a pennant race and in the playoffs I would love to go to battle with Matt Holliday. He just went to the world series and I think he could give us a huge lift for the second half. Not to mention the fact we play Colorado head-to-head a bunch and you have to think Holliday would be especially motivated to beat his old team.
Next year if we sign Holliday, Nate and Bowker can compete to start in rtight field with the loser backing up both corners. If Holliday walks we get a couple of draft picks and go into next year with Bowker in left, Rowand in center, and Nate in right. Either way I think our outfield looks much better moving forward.
Holliday is not a consideration - look elsewhere
1. Sabes will not trade for a player that will be a FA at the end of this season.
2. The only scenario that Sabes would even remotely consider to go against rule #1 is if the team was giving the FA away for next to nothing, or if they take Barry Zito’s contract off of our hands. Since the A’s believe that they will at the very least receive 2 high round draft picks if they let Holliday leave as a FA, then they will not give him away to Sabes. Not to mention the enmity between Sabes and Beane makes big deals very unlikely between the 2 teams.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I think you need a point here for Holliday’s general meh-ishness, too.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
In the world of logic you would be right, but I was writing mainly from the point of view of Sabean. Unless Holliday was hitting like the 2nd coming of ManRam, I don’t believe it would make a difference from Sabean’s POV.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Haha – with no baseball today I guess all I have is rosterbation to keep me entertained. I think it will take a good package to land Holliday because the A’s will get draft picks if they don’t deal him. We would have to give up at least the amount of talent that they could get if they offered him arb.
Sanchez, on the other hand, is mostly salary relief for the Pirates. There is no way they want to pay him 8 million dollars next year. I really hope the market dries up for him a bit, we can offer them a pitching prospect that can jump into their rotation, a replacement at second base, and a major league reliever.
I agree that it’ll take a lot to get Holliday, I just don’t think it’s worth it. Frandsen and Pucetas are pretty much just roster filler, so all you’re really offering Pittsburgh is a 27 y-o reliever who has a lot of potential but has yet to really pitch well in the majors. They do need salary relief, but I think there has to be some team out there that can offer more than that.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
I think the Giants will – and should – trade for a second baseman. I’m not sure how much they’ll do beyond that. The team would be much stronger with Uribe as the infield super-sub and someone like Sanchez manning second base every day.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
You got me thinking of the story about the Young Bull and the Old Bull...
(as featured in “Days of Thunder”, I think).
All this trade hysteria neglects the long overdue plan of rebuilding and evaluating the unknowns on our own roster. Remember how happy many of us were when Boch started letting the kids play this year? (some of you will obviously claim otherwise, but I digress…)
We weren’t supposed to contend… but we are, and that’s AWESOME!!! But I still haven’t yet seen a realistic trade scenario (where both teams benefit, sorry dreamers) that doesn’t A) trade away a valuable piece of the future, and/or B) upgrade our current team significantly.
We are not 1 bat (for power or avg) away from flipping or evening out our road record (which IMHO, is the nut that needs to be cracked). Next year at this time, we could potentially be way out in front like the Dodgers are now if we DON’T give away our top kids.
We are on a great ride right now, and the Giants will definitely be dangerous in series matchups if they make the playoffs, but…
LET’S WALK DOWN THE HILL AND FUCK ’EM ALL!!!
faux bullet/grammar fail
that doesn’t A) trade away a valuable piece of the future, and/or B) upgrade our current team significantly.
that A) doesn’t trade away a valuable piece of the future, and/or B) upgrades our current team significantly.
by KrazyKrabMeat on Jul 13, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Can Jesus play second base?
I like cats. Wings is the greatest show of all time.
Tyler Graham is my favorite San Jose Giant because he has smart balls.
So one would think, but then we haven’t yet traded our other DH, Eddy Martinez-Esteve.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
I know the reports on EME’s defense aren’t good, but compared to Guzman, isn’t he a gold glover?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 13, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
To an AL team
He’s perfect as a DH for them.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I have heard this many times – send a bad glove, good bat guy to DH in the AL, as if that player will have value in the AL, but it just isn’t terribly feasible.
Guzman’s MLE from minorleaguesplits.com is .285/.328/.440 for a .768 OPS. That’s not terribly good, but for the sake of argument, let’s say that he could hit for an .850 OPS, give or take park factor, for an AL team.
How good is that? There are only 14 AL teams, so assuming there isn’t a rotation or platoon situation, only 14 spots are available for such a player in baseball. To make a player like Guzman valuable to an AL team, the guy would have to A) be a better hitter than a team’s current DH, or B) be a good enough hitter that a team would consider moving its DH to a defensive position to open the DH spot. Plus, in B, the DH would have to have a passable enough glove to make the switch worthwhile.
How many AL teams appear to have any such need?
BOS – has Papi, who looked done but was hot in June. Even if they dump Papi, they probably move Jason Bay to DH.
NYY – too many OF who are already better hitters than Guzman. Can afford better anyway.
TBR – Not with Burrell there.
TOR – Unlikely with their 4 OFers – Guzman is not better than Lind. Maybe if Rios is traded.
BAL – Luke Scott and Nolan Reimold. No.
DET – Marcus Thames is getting old, but they have multiple guys to fill in who are probably as good or better than Guzman. Maybe a possibility.
CHW – Maybe when Thome retires?
MIN – Kubel, Cuddyer, Morneau all better.
KC – Maybe? Would be a good platoon partner with Jacobs, but they also have Billy Butler, who is a poor defensive 1B.
CLE – not with Pronkey Kong there.
LAA – probably not with Abreu and Vlad there.
TEX – Michael Young is a DH playing 3B. Plus they have Andruw Jones. By the way, can you believe Hank Blalock is only 28? Doesn’t he seem like he’s 38? Maybe it’s because his name is “Hank.”
SEA – they could use the bat. They could use any bat. But they have Branyan, Lopez (a bad defensive 2B), Jeff Clement in the minors, and currently the rotting corpse of Ken Griffey Jr.
OAK – they didn’t keep him when they had him. Plus they have Giambi and Jack Cust, two of the finest fielders in the land.
So how many teams even remotely have a need for Guzman this year or next? Boston may have some need depending on Papi, but there’s just no chance they get Guzman. Maybe Detroit? Maybe Seattle? Maybe Kansas City? That’s not a lot of options, plus, Detroit can sign someone better.
Also, there are other guys out there who fit Guzman’s profile but are better. Jake Fox of the Cubs is one – .325/.401/.645 1.045 OPS MLE (!!!) (raw numbers – .407/.495/.846 for Iowa – are you kidding me?). Fox is currently hitting .313/.356/.550 for the Cubs at the big-league level in 90 PA. There are just too many guys with suspect gloves who can hit, both in the minors and the majors, to make a guy like Guzman have any value.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 13, 2009 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hold on there
I appreciate the in-depth analysis, but you’re taking the original point a bit too far.
1. All I was saying is that at this point in his career Jesus would have more intrinsic value to an AL team as a prospect because if they fail to find a permanent position for him he can always spend a large chunk of his time as a DH.
2. I wasn’t touting Jesus as the centerpiece of a trade deal, and I never said that he was ready to step in and take over right now. I was just saying he would be a possible enticing part of a package for an AL team looking for a cheap young bat close to MLB-ready, with a high ceiling.
3. You have to also remember that nowadays teams want to dump large salaries and find young, cheap players with potential high ceilings that they can control for 4-6 years before they earn the big $$$. Jesus fits that bill now, while the vast majority of the DH’s on your list do not.
4. You are discounting Jesus’s upside with your minorleaguesplits.com stat line. That’s hardly a statistically proven prognosticator of future production. Rather, it’s a backwards-looking computer model like the ones people have been trying to create for stock market and climate predictions for years now. All of these modeling systems have 1 thing in common – they have abysmal records of predicting future results for anything beyond about 7 days. One thing that we do know is factual is that since the beginning of last year Jesus has been a hitting and slugging machine. He won his AA league batting title last year, then almost won the triple crown in the Venezuelan Winter League (a league full of MLB players and highly-touted minor league prospects. This summer he was lighting it up in the PCL until he got sidetracked by a minor injury and a short stint with the Giants – he’s just gotten back in the swing of things and his one of the hottest hitters in the PCL for the past 3 weeks.
5. Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Eric Hinske, Bobby Abreu, Vlad Guerrero, Giambi, Nomar, Kevin Millar, Dave Dellucci, Ken Griffey, Endy Chavez, Russell Branyan, Mike Sweeney, Aubrey Huff, Blalock, Andruw Jones, Gabe Kapler, Coco Crisp, Mark Teahan, and Jim Thome. What do they have in common? All have played anywhere from 1 to all of their games for an AL team this year as a DH – and all will be FAs at the end of this year. In all, 4 of the AL teams are losing their main DH, and over half will have big question marks about their DH position, at the end of the season. Are you going to tell me that Jesus wouldn’t look good as a young, cheap, and improving potential future DH with a high ceiling who should be MLB-ready to go at the start of next year as part of a trade package between now and the beginning of next year?
6. With Derrick Lee getting old and his contract expiring at the end of 2010, Jake Fox is not going anywhere.
7. Detroit has money issues, they don’t have millions to tie up in a FA DH. They will either have to produce one from their Minor League system, or find a cheap alternative.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
It’s been extremely rare for a NL team in the wild card era to fail to reach the playoffs after a regular season in which they allowed an average of less than 4 runs per game.
Giants ’09 3.72 RA/Gm
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
It's happened 4 times .
Dodgers thrice (2003, 2002, 1997) Mets once (1998). 15 teams have finished with a RA under four since 1995, only one (the 2003 Dodgers) finished with a lower RS/G than the Giants have right now.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
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