San Francisco Giants Draft Preview, Part V: Hitters
by Grant Brisbee on Jun 8, 2009 12:49 AM PDT
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PrintIt's been about twelve hours since anyone's linked to this thread. This time the point isn't to highlight how mortified a lot of us were at the thought of another high school pitcher, but rather to show how hitter goofy most of us were just two years ago. We talked about Beau Mills like teenage girls talk about "The Hills." Did you see what Beau Mills was swinging today? Ohmigod, he hit another home run for Lewis-Clark State. He is so going to be our pick.
Now? Not so much. There's a ton of high school pitching on the board, and, well, okay. That's cool. We can wait. The 2013 championship team will have a ton of talent -- Lincecum going for his sixth straight Cy Young, Buster Posey chasing .400, and John Bowker putting up a .450 on-base percentage from the leadoff spot -- but there's always room for a 22-year-old rookie pitcher just getting his feet weet. Sure, take a high school pitcher, Giants brass. That sounds swell.
Forgotten in the strange calm regarding Giants' personnel decisions: There just might be a few good hitters in this bunch. Are toolsy raffle tickets your bag? Donavan Tate's your man. Preseason favorites who might slip to the sixth pick because they only had a good-not-great season? Grant Green should be around. Looking for a hitter -- any hitter -- to turn into the Giants' version of Matt LaPorta, who was widely perceived to be an overdraft when the Brewers took him? Keith Law thinks the Giants are hot 'n' heavy for Tim Wheeler, and I've received two different random e-mails hinting that the Giants might be hotter 'n' heavier for Brett Jackson.
And when the Giants spring for one of these hitters, almost everyone's going to yelp "OVERDRAFT!", and wonder about the teenaged flamethrower who was not to be. Hot dang, I love the draft.
Quick capsules on the top three:
Donavan Tate
The top high school bat in the draft, Tate isn't going to be cheap. And he's one o' them raw hitters that the Giants have historically used to line bird cages. If the Giants want to give $6M to a playdate for Angel Villalona and Rafael Rodriguez, they can get a couple of the best Dominican propects for the price of one Tate. In ten years, maybe this will be a joke of a post as Tate closes in on his 250th home run. There are just a ton of picks that are more in the Giants' comfort zone, though. I'll be excited with a Tate pick, but it would worry the heck out of me.
Underwhelming MLB.com video
Whelming YouTube video
Another one.
A profile from a site named after a famous Giants' first-round bust. That has to mean something.
Grant Green
Green represents the most jarring departure from the Mills-or-bust mindset from two years ago. Here's a middle infielder who entered the season as a top-five pick, started a little slow, and now he might be available at six. His detractors make him sound like a Kevin Frandsen clone -- questionable ability to stick at short and minimal power. Maybe, but that would sure mean a lot of very smart folks were waaaaaay off on him for the past couple of years. I have absolutely no idea what to think about Green. His swing doesn't scream power potential, and if he can't play short, that's a one-way ticket to Grudzielanekville.
Worth noting: Dude already has a bar named after him here. Also worth noting: When you can spell "Grudzielanek" without looking it up, you probably need a month-long break from baseball.
MLB.com profile
Project Prospect profile
Prospect Insider profile
YouTube video
Tim Wheeler
If you have ESPN Insider access, you're probably aware that Wheeler is Keith Law's pick for the Giants in his mock draft. Law also grades Wheeler as having slightly above-average tools in every respect. That isn't the aerosol can of excitement that an organization should want with #6, but in a thin college draft, there's no way he'll be around for the Giants' second-round pick. If someone is enamored of Wheeler and really thinks he's the best player available at six, go for it. If someone thinks the reason to draft Wheeler is that he'll reach the majors soon, forget it.
MLB.com profile
Some guy yammering on and on about Wheeler
Baseball America profile
Notable omission: Dustin Ackley, who's been #2 on my draft board for months. These johnny-come-latelys have futzed everything up and put him at #2 on everyone's board. Not fair. Ackley's like a John Olerud who can play center, even grading out at a 70 with his "fake Rickey Henderson anecdote"-tool. If he falls for some crazy reason, the Giants' decision will be easy, and oh, goodness, Bartolo Colon is even fatter than I remember him. Sorry. I was just watching MLB Network while typing. I should know better. Where was I?
Oh, right. Amateur hitters. Times have changed, and the lunatic fringe just might be fine with another young pitcher. Comment starter: What do you think Beau Mills is totally doing right now? Also, do you think the Giants should go for a hitter with the sixth pick?
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Grant Green scares the bejeezus out of me as a prospect. I’m struggling to find one person who thinks he’s a superstar in one area— either in the field or at the plate, but so far, nothing. Maybe some team strikes gold with him, but that seems pretty unlikely to me. Tate or Wheeler… I’d be ok with either of those I guess, though I think I’d rather have Matzek, Zach Wheeler or Crow.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Jun 8, 2009 1:19 AM PDT reply actions
Hey, Smoke
We’re still meeting up tomorrow to build a time machine and go back to last June so we can draft Justin Smoak, right? And if I’m running a bit late – who cares? It is a time machine, after all.
Seriously, if the Giants pass on Smoak in 2008 and then choose Grant Green in 2009, I’ll…. I’ll…. be very depressed for a very long time. I’ll probably start posting here more often, starting random threads about emo musicians, or Russian literature, or poodles. I’ll be wearing all black; you won’t see that, of course, but I’ll type in black, too. I’ll ask TakeAGiantStepAndGo for advice on topic starters.
It’s too horrible to contemplate.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
Not really interested in any of the hitters available this year so would rather one of the pitching options.
Tate’s clearly a player with good tools & would be a perfectly decent selection here. So i won’t be annoyed if we picked him but i wouldn’t be very confident of him turning out well or us developing him effectively so I’d be very wary were we to go in his direction.
Grant Green is someone i can’t get enthusiastic about as he seems to have too many question marks. A player with questionable power potential that probably won’t be able to stick at SS just isn’t that interesting & you’d have to be confident about him doing 1 of those to make it a good pick here.
Wheeler i just can’t get interested in, he’s clearly a good prospect & will probably be a good selection for a team selecting later in the round but he just doesn’t seem the quality of prospect I’d be looking for as there will be better prospects available to us.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Grant Green and questionmarks
Where did all these questions about Grant Green come from? Coming into the year, he was the consensus #2 overall prospect behind Strassburg. He got off to a slow start, performing to his previous standard after the first month or so. So, where did his bat suddenly become suspect? Why did his power suddenly evaporate? When did his defense at shortstop become weak? Not sure I’d pick him at #6, but he was being compared to Tulo and Longoria not long ago and nothing really changed other than one bad month and severe overanalysis of his game.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
Well, he has made eighteen errors this year at short. That’s a lot for fifty-four games. Granted, most of those came at the beginning of the year, but remember Ryan Braun, college third baseman? He was actually a decent defensive 3B at Miami and then shat the bed at the hot corner after he was drafted. And Green has still not been playing great defense lately. The pro game really is faster and I just don’t see a mediocre defensive college SS being able to stick in the pros. As far as the other aspects of his games, I’m not really an expert, but his defense really does worry me.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Yeah, but here’s the thing: There’s no consensus about his defense. Some see him as an athletic shortstop who could be a Gold Glover, according to Baseball America. Others see him as a third baseman waiting to happen.
Sure, he’s risky, but I’d be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt if John Barr, Dick Tidrow and company decide he’s the guy at six.
If we picked him at six, I’d be worried, but I really do have faith in the scouting staff. If they think he’s the guy, I’m not going to be bitching and moaning.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Well i’m not the best person to comment as i’m not an expert on Green but i can give a couple of thoughts.
Firstly, as a draft prospect, like a minor league prospect, he’s supposed to be developing & so putting up a similar performance when repeating a level isn’t necessarily good enough. Also his stats actually went down from his previous year as he hit for lower average (may have just been a poor start as you mentioned) and for less than half the amount of HR’s (4 compared to 9 the previous year) That can lead to questions that last year his power spiked & wasn’t the sign of a developing skill that they had believed coming into the season. Defensively i’m not sure, perhaps his defence wasn’t as good this year or that when they looked more they questioned whether his defence will be good enough at a higher level. I think Keith Law is particularly critical of his defence.
Ultimately a players final year can have a big effect on a players draft standing as our draftees from last year can attest. Posey shot up the rankings because he had a great final year & Crawford who was actually rated higher than Posey going into the year plummeted into the 4th round on the basis of a poor Junior season.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Final year
True, but sometimes people overreact to a player’s final amateur year. Ryan Howard dropped like a rock, for example, the year he was drafted.
True, i wasn’t saying it’s correct to put that much emphasis on it, in fact last year i was delighted with Giants drafting a few players who’d fallen (such as crawford), i was simply saying that a lot of emphasis is placed on it by people. Also i’d imagine there’s also a case that the players are looked at far more deeply in their junior year as they’re soon to be draft eligible.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Every time I see Green being compared to Tulowitzki and Longoria I think, OK, which is it? One guy is a glove man with a dubious bat who can’t stay healthy, and the other is one of the very best players in the game.
Green’s probably a better hitter than Tulo, but no one thinks his glove is in the same league. Hard to get excited about that. It’s worth noting that he’s a year older than Tulo and Longoria were when they came out of college.
I think we’ll take Zack Wheeler at 6.
"The dreams ain't broken down here now, they're walking with a limp" --TW
DUSTIN ACKLEY COCAINE DUSTIN ACKLEY HEROIN DUSTIN ACKLEY DRUG PROBLEM
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Dustin Ackley does cocaine?
Jesse Foppert: I Still Believe
"I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen." ~Bob Lemon,
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Jun 8, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Fucking fantastic.
Jesse Foppert: I Still Believe
"I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen." ~Bob Lemon,
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Jun 8, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
He’s Eddie Milner’s love child.
"The dreams ain't broken down here now, they're walking with a limp" --TW
Be careful
Sabes: I read on the intertubes that Ackley has a cocaine problem.
/selects Wheeler
by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 8, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
No way
Sabes doesn’t know how to use the internet.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
You know what's bad?
My USER PROFILE is the #4 hit on this list.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
UNC TAR HEELS DUSTIN ACKLEY COLLEGE WORLD SERIES COCAINE DUSTIN ACKLEY COCAINE COCAINE COCAINE DUSTIN COCAINE ACKLEY
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
I’d take Grant Green at #6 if Ackley or Crow isn’t there,… or any of the other pitchers rated above him.
I think all of these guys would be considered overrated at #6, but I don’t like the idea of taking a High School kid who can’t hit a curveball, has a big ego already, and is considering going to play football/baseball at USC. If that happens, we get NOTHING at the #6 pick.
I think if we get one of these pitchers, we could always package him up and trade him for a hitter. He would probably have a lot more value than a hitter…. OR, we trade one of the guys we have now, (not named Bumgarner, Cain or Lincecum, or even Alderson)… then the pitcher we pickup now will replace the guy we just traded away. What we are left with, is (hopefully) a decent hitter, and our pitching staff will remain dominant.
Oh, and this theory doesn’t work when you see reports of a Jonathan Sanchez for Mark De Rosa trade. I’d rather have Sanchez in the bullpen and take our lumps this season.
…considering going to play football/baseball at USC. If that happens, we get NOTHING at the #6 pick.
We’d get the number 6 pick again next year if that happened. Plus a mid-first round pick (assuming our record stays around where it is for the rest of the season).
by The Double Deuce on Jun 8, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
We get the number 6a pick next year. Probably means the #7 pick, but if one or two teams ahead of us don’t sign their guy either it moves us down to 8 or 9.
by Missing Barry on Jun 8, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
My choices, in order
1. Tyler Matzek – I loves me a MadBum clone
2. Jacob Wheeler – I loves me another Matt Cain
3. Donavan Tate – I loves me some delayed gratification
Flaxseed oil dependent
LOLINEUP
CF Rowand
SS Renteria
RF Winn
C Molina
1B Sandoval
3B Uribe
LF Torres
2B Burriss
P Johnson
by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 8, 2009 2:08 PM PDT reply actions
This is frustrating
Why isn’t Nate getting the start instead of Torres? The 31 year old journeyman, or the 25 year old bat?
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
People who don’t need a day off: Winn, Renteria, Molina, Uribe, Burrriss
People who do need a day off: Fred Lewis
Of course.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
I think Lewis is officially being platooned.
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
When is Sandoval going back to 3rd?
"Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense."
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's [no, make that Rowand's] contract.
Adoptive father of "Poncho" Villalona: This Angel don't fly. Nothing about him is light.
I haz a sad...
panda
"Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense."
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's [no, make that Rowand's] contract.
Adoptive father of "Poncho" Villalona: This Angel don't fly. Nothing about him is light.
You know, a Grudzielenek clone wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. I know we all want a superstar out of the #6 position in the draft, but I’d rather get an unspectacular but decent middle infielder than a bust.
"Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense."
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's [no, make that Rowand's] contract.
Adoptive father of "Poncho" Villalona: This Angel don't fly. Nothing about him is light.
You can tell a lot about someone by their name
Im sorry, but Tyler Matzek just sounds like the name of a middle reliever
I think Tim Wheeler sounds like an above average starter, but Zach Wheeler sounds better
Mike Trout, that names sounds like a sloid OF, but not a superstar
Im having trouble with Tate
so theirs my analysis, without actually doing any research!
The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.
Uhhh
Thanks Bill Simmons
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Jon Heyman just said that we're look at Miguel Tejada as a solution at 3B
heard it on MLB network
he and Renteria can disintegrate next to each other!
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
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