Next to 300
by Hobbes2d on Jun 5, 2009 1:37 AM PDT
122 comments
Everytime someone gets their 300th win, we hear the same old bs that that person is going to be the last guy to ever win 300 games. Now while it might be awhile (10 years or so) until we get anyone who comes close again, I think it's stupid for someone to say that it won't happen again. With that being said, I do think one of the following players will end up winning 300 games. Who do you think has the best chance to do it? Or do you think it will be someone who hasn't even played in the majors yet and it might be longer then 10-15 years before the next 300 game winner?
Here are some names of some guys who I think have the best shot, starting first with guys who are in their late 20s to early 30s and who have a lot of wins, and then a list of younger pitchers who if they get into a really consistent groove could end up their one day.
The consistent winners:
Roy Halladay (32) 140 wins
Roy Oswalt (31) 131 wins
Javier Vazquez (32) 131 wins
Mark Buehrle (30) 128 wins
CC Sabathia (28) 122 wins
Johan Santana (30) 116 wins
Carlos Zambrano (28) 99 wins
Josh Beckett (29) 95 wins
Jake Peavy (28) 91 wins
Brandon Webb (30) 87 wins
Dan Haren (28) 69 wins
Young guys:
Felix Hernandez (23) 44 wins
Justin Verlander (26) 52 wins
Zack Greinke (25) 42 wins
Matt Garza (25) 23 wins
Jon Lester (25) 31 wins
Matt Cain (24) 37 wins
Chad Billingsley (24) 42 wins
Tim Lincecum (24) 29 wins
Yovani Gallardo (23) 14 wins
Or none of the above?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Sabathia's got the best chance...
But it’s not very likely. He’d have to stay healthy and pitch effectively into his 40s.
by sfmaynard on Jun 5, 2009 1:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not Really.
An average of 15 Wins for 12 seasons would get him to 302 in the year he turns forty. CC just needs to stay healthy and effective.
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2009 1:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s exactly what sfmaynard said…
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by Natto on Jun 5, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And how many pitchers do that?
Not very very many.
by DesertFox on Jun 5, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially guys who look like CC. He’s gonna have to work EXTREMELY hard to keep that body in shape into his thirties and forties. I could see him breaking down at some point.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 5, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
body bias
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How injured was David Wells?? He weighed like 650lbs.
by SFGuy on Jun 5, 2009 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really
he would have to stay healthy and effective……..
Thing A
by sam23 on Jun 5, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely.
But playing for the Yankees certainly helps his chances. With their resources, Sabathia will likely get a great deal of help from his offense for the foreseeable future. He’s not going to have to be much better than average to match or even surpass the 15 W pace as long as he’s in NY.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Jun 5, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doh, should have read the next post.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Jun 5, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like CC too. He plays for the Yankees who are going to have plenty of offense over the length of his contract. He’s had 2 Cy Young caliber seasons in a row, and if he can stay healthy I can see him winning more then 15 games consistently over the next 10 years or so that will get him really close to getting 300.
by Hobbes2d on Jun 5, 2009 2:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The only two pitchers with over 100 wins that have a chance are Halladay and Santana.
by StickRat on Jun 5, 2009 2:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Halladay’s chances a lot more if he gets traded out of the AL East.
Bruce Bochy would like you to look at the career numbers and stop complaining.
by cheno on Jun 5, 2009 2:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s still doing pretty well being in the NL East. Other than an injury shortened season in ‘04, he’s averaged 10 wins a year since 2002.
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by Natto on Jun 5, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even including his ‘04, he’s averaged more than 15 wins a season from 2002-2008.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
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by groug on Jun 5, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would say CC, if he can get 18-20 wins over the next 5 seasons, which is very doable with the Yankees offense, he can easily get to 200 wins then he has to get 7-8 decent seasons to get to 300 wins.
by NinjaCat on Jun 5, 2009 2:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I was playing around with some numbers. Assuming CC pitches as a starter until he’s 40, he’d need to average 15 wins a year for the next 12 years including this year to make it to 300 by age 40. I threw out 40 because it’s not implausible for a starter to keep going to that age. Even though the Yankees aren’t winning every game this year, he still has a potent offense behind him. I think the 15-win years aren’t implausible, either.
Zambrano, lol. If he can keep from punching stuff and confronting umpires, I’d say he has a shot. He risks missing starts because he’s getting suspended for his shenanigans.
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lincecum, because his 30 year/300 million dollar extension will have him pitching into his 50’s. When he’ll still throw 92.
Yep.
Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.
by MonkeyChow on Jun 5, 2009 4:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
His dad threw 88 at age 52!!!!!1
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lincecum
Because he’s always the correct answer.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
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Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Jun 5, 2009 5:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Unless the question is..
Who should the Giants trade to get some dingerz.
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
by Azmanz on Jun 5, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lincecum is the correct answer to that, too.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Jun 7, 2009 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He doesn’t know how to win! How could he possibly get 300 of them?
THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME (for 3 days in 1995).
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Jun 5, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're living in the past, man...
Live in the Now!
by The Double Deuce on Jun 5, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now Zito doesn’t know how to win. Cain stole his winner’s attitude.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
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by raisingcain on Jun 6, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabathia’s the only pitcher who’s really in good position to get 300, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Beckett or Halladay made it.
I imagine that a couple of the younger guys will pull it off as well.
by Evan on Jun 5, 2009 6:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Jamie Moyer
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by ResDog on Jun 5, 2009 6:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Also wondering why Barry Zito (31) 124 wins didn’t make the list.
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
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by ResDog on Jun 5, 2009 6:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Because as he gets older, he might lose his fastball.
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You can ridicule me in 2009 if you like...
by ThrillisGone22 on Jun 5, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moyer lawl. I assume you are being sarcastic.
No Zito for obvious reasons.
by Hobbes2d on Jun 5, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t be surprised if Halladay did it. Flies under the radar at times, but he’s so durable, consistent, and just flat out good.
Why are we even talking about Lincecum getting 300? That’s a shoe-in. All I’m saying is Cy Young better be watching his record…
by Missing Barry on Jun 5, 2009 7:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
Halladay could if he pitched into his forties.Hes a really durable guy, and usually pitches late into the game
The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jun 5, 2009 7:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Matt Cain
right. on this team? you’re dreaming.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Jun 5, 2009 7:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
After
we trade him for Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy, then the Giants will have the bats to support him, so I think 300 is in reach.
Leading the Pro-Aaron Rowand contingent on the McC!
You can ridicule me in 2009 if you like...
by ThrillisGone22 on Jun 5, 2009 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But he’s gonna hit the free agent market for the first time at age 27. He’s really going to be a hot property out there.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jun 5, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And we’re going to sign him, so this isn’t an issue.
by Missing Barry on Jun 5, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a Giants’ fan I’d like to see that, but if I were Matt’s agent I sure wouldn’t be recommending it.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jun 5, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he’s been kinda injury prone. I’d be surprised if he lasted long enough.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 5, 2009 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2009 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually thought he was younger.
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by Azmanz on Jun 5, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Santana
I can see him pitching into his 40s. plus, he’s a lefty, so even if he bounces around, he can Moyer on to 300 wins.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 5, 2009 8:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it’s unlikely that anyone will reach 300. If I had to handicap the race at this point, I’d say:
1. Steve Strasburg
2. CC Sabathia
3. Tim Lincecum
4. Josh Beckett
5. Johan Santana
6. Justin Verlander
7. Matt Cain
8. Yovani Gallardo
9. Justin Verlander
I don’t really think CC can do it because I don’t see him lasting long enough. The same for Carlos Zambrano. And of course we don’t know which teams will have helpful offenses in the decade to come. And yes, this assumes that Strasburg leaves the Nationals via free agency and signs with a powerhouse club. Who knows – by then that could be the Giants!
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by Lyle on Jun 5, 2009 9:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
One of these things is not like the others…
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by Johnny Disaster on Jun 5, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn, not only is he going to sign a $50 million dollar contract (according to Scott Boras) before he throws his first pitch as a professional, he is already at the top of Lyle’s most likely list of pitchers to win 300 games. Them some high expectations.
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.
by WilliamVanLandingham on Jun 5, 2009 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No joke
I don’t think Stephen Strasburg at #1 is a joke. Remember, we’re talking about something that might NEVER happen again. Strasburg could hurt his arm and never reach 25 wins, but he could also continue his collegiate dominance on a somewhat lower level and have a shot at 300.
Right now I would probably give Roy Halladay the best shot. He can pitch deeply into game and has stayed reasonably healthy. C.C. Sabathia fits the same description except for the health.
Tim Lincecum can have a shot if he achieves longevity. It is possible Tim can pitch for a LONG time, and in a couple more years, the Giants will be a higher scoring team. The Giants havce actually given Tim good run support, though, as he has stolen run support from first Matt Cain and now Barry Zito.
Tim does need a little better bullpen support, though. I believe they have cost him 8 wins in the past season and a third and presumably double digits in his first two years.
In 2008 Tim, Johan Santana and Brandon Webb each left with the lead and a chance for the win in 23 games. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen blew only one such lead, and Brandon wound up with 22 wins. Tim and Johan had 5 and 7 games blown, respectively, giving them 18 and 16 wins apiece.
by sharksrog on Jun 5, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Same Steven Strasburg
That will be pitching for the Nationals?
(we assume)
The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jun 5, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
my point being
if the Nationals offense does score enough runs for him, the bullpen would still have to hold it
The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jun 5, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strasburg
As sharksrog indicated, it’s no joke. (Even RJ alluded to Strasburg in his post-game comments about 300). Remember, I said I don’t think anyone will reach 300. It’s all about average wins per year, and although it seems Strasburg will start out pitching for a lousy Washington team, their very lousiness may help him. They’ll be desperate to bring him up as soon as possible, thus starting his ML service time early and getting him that much closer to free agency…at which point he could choose to join a team that seems more likely to help him get wins.
It’s all a lot of ifs and maybes, but with his high talent level and unblemished (!) ML record so far, it could happen. For example, I could see Strasburg being, at age 24, at Matt Cain’s win level, or even at Chad Billingsley’s level. We could assume he won’t rack up a whole lot of wins between now and age 24 or so, but after that, he certainly could.
In retrospect, I should have included Felix Hernandez on my list, probably just above Santana. I totally overlooked his name and numbers. Then again, as long as he plays for the Mariners…
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Jun 5, 2009 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strasburg hasn’t even thrown a MLB pitch yet. To put him as #1 over guys who, at a young age, have already been very very good in the majors is a little bit out there. And by a little bit, I really mean is just insane. Lincecum has already had an entire season in the majors where he was the best pitcher in his league – all I’m saying is for all of Strasburg’s talent he has yet to prove anything other than he can dominate the Mountain West, so let’s hold off on putting him above established MLB stars.
By the way, a couple people have mentioned the 300 may never happen again thing…I don’t understand why anyone thinks that. Not a single person who thinks 300 may never happen again has given a reason why it won’t. We recently had 4 guys make it, what about their conditions were different than the conditions now, and why will that cause this generation to win less games?
by Missing Barry on Jun 6, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
my opinion
I can’t speak for others, but I see a downward trend in pitching robustness, if you will. These guys who have recently reached 300 either: (1) spent part of their careers in 4-man rotations, giving them extra starts per year, or (2) spent part of their career in an era when manly men pitched the entire 9 innings, and thus got more wins (and losses, presumably). Today, pitchers seem to break down much more often. And then when you look at the investments that teams have made in their elite pitchers, you can easily understand why they’d want to treat their star pitchers with kid gloves, medically speaking.
In short, these recent members of the 300 club were, at least partially, of a different era – and I don’t foresee that era returning any time soon.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Jun 8, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It should be
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
by baetown415 on Jun 5, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sharksrog : TIm Lincecum :: Lyle : Stephen Strasburg?
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on Jun 5, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Stress with Stras
Stephen Strasburg isn’t a bad horse to back.
by sharksrog on Jun 5, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate to say it..
But Billingsly has to be top 5/6 on the list
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
by Azmanz on Jun 5, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
banned
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
"Nothing important ever happened without me."
by ResDog on Jun 5, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Billingsley
I think Chad Billingsley belongs on the list ahead of Matt Cain. In Matt’s favor he is finally getting run suppor and, might have put together the pieces. (I’m not yet convinced, although his last rhree starts have done some convincing.) Matt has had excellent health throughout his career and seems to have a good build for durability.
Billingsley had a broken leg last year, but he has gone on as if nothing happened.
I saw Matt and Chad as being similar pitchers of about the same age. Matt developed a little more quickly, so I thought he might be slightly the better. In reality, the two have been close — but it has been Billingsley who has outperformed Matt by a bit.
by sharksrog on Jun 5, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt vs. Chad
Let the race to 300 begin!
Honestly, I could see either one getting there. They both have strong, durable builds and can pitch a lot of innings. At this point, I don’t know which one I’d consider more likely to get there.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 5, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Cain is also in God’s favor by being a Giant, while Billingsly, as a Dodger, is clearly not.
by Missing Barry on Jun 6, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Between 1901 and 1981 7 people won 300 games and 4 of those are predominantly dead ball era pitchers (Matthewson, Plank, Johnson, and Alexander). In the 58 seasons between 1924 and 1981 3 people made it to 300 victories (two, Grove and Wynn ended with exactly 300). Then in 1982 the flood gates opened, 6 pitchers hit 300 in the following decade and in the next generation 4 more made it in the 00s. It seems pretty obvious to me that the current pitcher usage makes it easier, not harder, to accumulate big career win totals by extending careers. With one exception, the great pitchers of the 4 man rotation era all ended up with low 200 win totals because they were done by their mid-30s.
As for whose next, well here’s a snapshot of some recent 300 game winners mid-career:
Tom Glavine had 139 wins when he turned 32
Randy Johnson 111 when he turned 33
Nolan Ryan 151 at 32
Gaylord Perry 134 at 33
Phil Niekro 110 at 35!!!!
Warren Spahn 122 at 32
Don Sutton 155 at 32
Roger Clemens had won 192 games when he turned 34 but had only won 29 in the previous 3 seasons combined, all of which included time on the DL.
Now mid-career of the current group:
Tim Hudson 146 at 33
Roy Halladay 140 at 32
Roy Oswalt, 131 at 31
Javier Vasquez 131 at 32
Mark Buerhle 128 at 30
CC Sabatha 122 at 28
Johan Santana 116 at 30
John Garland 110 at 29
Jake Peavy 91 at 28
I’d be willing to put money up that at least two if not more of that group will make it to 300. And history tells us it’s not necessarily going to be the greatest pitchers out of that group, just the one’s who stay healthy longest (the Perry rather than Marichal, the Sutton rather than the Koufax, the Niekro rather than the Gibson).
And that’s not even counting Andy Pettitte (220 at 37) who probably could do it (if he keeps pitching for the Yankees) if he just wanted to. I see no reason he couldn’t keep doing what he does until he’s 44 or 45.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jun 5, 2009 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Fixed
Tim Hudson 146 at 33
Roy Halladay 140 at 32
Roy Oswalt, 131 at 31
Javier Vasquez 131 at 32
Mark Buerhle 128 at 30
Barry Zito 124 at 31
CC Sabatha 122 at 28
Johan Santana 116 at 30
John Garland 110 at 29
Jake Peavy 91 at 28
Hey, remember all the ranting & raving about how great he keeps himself in shape? Can he post a 4ish ERA over the next 15 seasons? It’s not like his fastball is his bread & butter.
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
"Nothing important ever happened without me."
by ResDog on Jun 5, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stranger things have happened. I’ll admit I edited him out out of spite.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jun 5, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Barry can win 300
I think Barry Zito can win 300 games. All he needs to do is keep pitching until he is 72.
by sharksrog on Jun 5, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Roger does like 10 minutes of research and basically proves how we’re likely to see more 300 game winners in the future, yet all we hear on tv or read in the newspapers is how RJ is the last one.
We're all basically Pedro Feliz.
by SF Pete on Jun 5, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most mainstream media writers are too lazy to do the research.
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on Jun 5, 2009 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing I don’t understand about the media, is not once have they said why “we’ll never see another 300 game winner”.
by Missing Barry on Jun 5, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing I don’t understand is why they insist that it was easier to pile up victories in 4 man rotation and finish what you started days, and ignore the fact that almost nobody who spent their entire career in that pitching environment was able to achieve high victory totals.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jun 5, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And the guys who have won 300 recently (Clemens, Maddox, Johnson, Glavine) all did it with 5 man rotations…so I don’t see how it’s even relevant. What difference is there in baseball now from any point in those 4’s career? I don’t see any substantial differences, except I guess guys starting now won’t get the chance to prolong their careers with PED’s (looking at a certain member of the 300 win group)…
by Missing Barry on Jun 5, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only things I can think of as differences, are the reliance on pitch counts, and salary issues.
Pitch counts weren’t nearly as worried about during the majority of those guys’ careers, and combine that with the fact that most “ace” pitchers these days are multi-million dollar investments, they are generally not going as deep into games. Of course, as long as they are on teams with solid bullpens, that could actually BENEFIT them, since they might not wear their arms out as quickly.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 5, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Longevity
Whether we see another 300 game winner will depend in great part on the longevity being enjoyed by today’s pitchers and those of the future. 300 wins is 15 years of 20 wins per year or 20 years of 15 wins per year. Clearly the latter is the more likely path, and the most likely path may wind up being 22 years of 14 wins per year.
Not only has Randy Johnson won at an impressive .647 pace, he has received a decision in over 76% of his games. By comparison, Tim Lincecum has a wonderful .725 winning percentage but has received a declsion in only 58% of his contests. I believe Tim has left with the lead and a chance for the win a dozen times in his 2+ years.
Tim will need to pitch well for a long time, he will need to continue to get good run support (which he has despite a woeful Giants offense overall) and to get much better support from his bullpen. It is likely, too, that as Tim continues to develop as a pitcher and becomes more efficient, he will pitch more deeply into games and receive a higher percentage of decisions.
But as well as Tim has pitched thus far, his bullpen has blown 12 of the 41 games he left with a chance to win, and he might have lost another chance or two by being left in too long.
But I think Tim’s career thus far shows just how DIFFICULT it is to achieve 300 wins. Tim has pitched fabulously, stayed healthy — and yet still won only 13.4 games per year. At that rate, he would need to continue winning at his present pace for 22.4 years. At that rate, he would reach 300 wins soon after the All-Star break in … 2031. Tim would have just reached 45 years of age.
I’m merely making these hypothetical to show how difficult 300 wins truly are. As I mentioned, Tim has actually gotten good run support over his career — but his bullpen has let him down.
Both Randy Johnson and Johan Santana have mentioned how many things are out of a pitcher’s control when it comes to winning. Fielders, hitters, bullpen — and even umpires, dimensions and weather conditions.
I would say Tim has pitched well enough to win 300 games in his career. I think he’s even gotten the necessary run support despite a weak-hitting team. The defense behind him has been adequate. But the Giants’ bullpen is killing his advancement toward 300.
Let’s put it this way: Tim has now pitched two years and a month. Tomorrow will mark the 25th monthly anniversary of his big league debut. He has pitched wonderfully well, with a career ERA lower than Randy Johnson’s. Yet Tim isn’t even 10% of the way to 300 wins.
Someone may well win 300 games before. But it isn’t likely to come easily. Other than Cy Young and Walter Johnson, I don’t think 300 wins have come easily for anyone.
by sharksrog on Jun 5, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Innings per game
Part of Randy Johnson’s ability to win 300 games has been based on his ability to pitch deeply into games. But Randy doesn’t enjoy a huge advantage over Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain in that regard. Randy has averaged 6.74 innings per outing, while Tim weighs in at 6.45 and Matt at 6.27. My guess would be that both Tim and Matt will increase their innings per game for at least another decade or so.
Of course, Randy has put up his numbers all the way through age 45.
On a side note, I think it is great that Matt is willing to come back on short rest his next time out so that the Giants don’t have to use an extra starter. Without the rain, I don’t think that would have been likely. (Of course, without the rain the night before, the Giants wouldn’t have NEEDED Matt to come back early.)
by sharksrog on Jun 5, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
People forget about Huddy
Hopefully he can find a way to stay healthy in the twilight of his career. He was always my favorite of the big 3 and if I’m not mistaken owns one of the best winning percentages of active major leaguers.
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list, n/a on a stat sheet.
BBk supports Sleepy's Law: "As a hoops discussion grows longer, the probability of an absurd trade proposal involving LeBron James approaches 1."
by BrianBokake on Jun 5, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LIVAN HERNANDEZ
Cheese will pitch 16 more season with 14 more teams and by some act of uncanny happenstance reach 300 wins. Whoops!
by satyricrash on Jun 5, 2009 10:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
300 will be against us.
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on Jun 5, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm picking Verlander
No injury history, started winning right away (and continues to win).
by jctGamer on Jun 5, 2009 11:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Verlander is a pretty good pick. I forget about him a lot of the time (same with Halladay) but he’s very good and he has time on his side.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other than the whole lost velocity and was not very good last year thing. At age 25 he was already pulling a Barry Zito. I’d call that a pretty big red flag for his future..
by Missing Barry on Jun 5, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His velocity is right back where it was this year though and he’s been probably the second-most dominant pitcher in the AL (after Greinke). I think last year was probably just a blip.
THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME (for 3 days in 1995).
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Jun 5, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Zito’s is back this year, too.
It might just be a random blip, and Verlander’s obviously been real good this year, but I’m just throwing that point out there because I think it should raise a similar red flag as a guy who missed half a season with an injury, you know?
by Missing Barry on Jun 5, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Verlander is 26. That would be one bad year for him. That’s certainly not a barometer.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Verlander had an issue with his mechanics, which now seems to be fixed as he’s back to being a very good frontline pitcher.
by Hobbes2d on Jun 5, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why isn’t Cole Hamels on the list of young guys who could win 300? He’s 25 and already has 42 wins.
"Are we bad? No. But right now, we are." Boulderskull, 4.16.09
by Kitspool on Jun 5, 2009 11:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
GRR! I knew I forgot someone. Thanks!
by Hobbes2d on Jun 5, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Coming off elbow surgery?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
by baetown415 on Jun 5, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he played on a good good team, Peavy would be my pick.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Jun 5, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
escape from SD
pesky no trade clause
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His fault at this point.
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list, n/a on a stat sheet.
BBk supports Sleepy's Law: "As a hoops discussion grows longer, the probability of an absurd trade proposal involving LeBron James approaches 1."
by BrianBokake on Jun 5, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Madison Bumgarner he is going to hit the majors at 20 and dominate for the next 25 years and get to 350 =)
by malarky on Jun 5, 2009 11:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like you.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Swoon.
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list, n/a on a stat sheet.
BBk supports Sleepy's Law: "As a hoops discussion grows longer, the probability of an absurd trade proposal involving LeBron James approaches 1."
by BrianBokake on Jun 5, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds good
As the blind umpire said, sounds good to me.
by sharksrog on Jun 5, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am shocked that Mussina didn’t hang around to get to 300. After last season he was up to 270 at 39.
by malarky on Jun 5, 2009 11:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
Lincecum, Hamels, and Strasburg can all do it. Will they? Who knows.
CC won’t because he’s fat and the Yankees suck LOL
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
by RDreamer on Jun 5, 2009 11:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Can we at least wait until Strasburg has thrown a major league pitch (or somehow made his way into the Giants organization) before crowning him?
by Missing Barry on Jun 5, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
Strasburg throw HARD
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
by RDreamer on Jun 5, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He couldn’t beat UVA and we’re crowning him the next 300 game winner?
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list, n/a on a stat sheet.
BBk supports Sleepy's Law: "As a hoops discussion grows longer, the probability of an absurd trade proposal involving LeBron James approaches 1."
by BrianBokake on Jun 5, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prior threw hard too. What’s your point?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
by baetown415 on Jun 5, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only thing standing in Timmy's/Cain's/MadBum's/Zito's(?!??!?!?!) way
is the Giants offense.
Best of Senator Clay Davis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI4-QyAzY64&feature=related
by cloudydays on Jun 5, 2009 11:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sadly...
They won’t all be Giants forever.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 5, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Run support
Tim has actually gotten surprisingly good run support over his career, and Matt is finally getting it this season, as well. The last two seasons Matt has averaged only 3.16 and 3.18 runs of support per nine innings, but he’s about two runs over that so far this year.
Matt’s pitching has improved greatly this season (at least in results), but his run support has inproved even more. I think over the past two seasons Matt has EARNED a little run support for the future.
by sharksrog on Jun 5, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jesus Christ almighty, King Felix has 44 wins at age 23, lets say he stays healthy and keeps pitching like this and gets 15 wins giving him 54 in his age 23 season. I f he averaged 15 wins a year until he was 40 he could do it. I could also see Felix averaging over 15 wins a year, the kid is already an excellent pitcher and he is still figuring it all out. Of the young slot, I say Felix Hernandez has an alright shot of making it. Of course this means he has to stay healthy which is always the caveat
Proud leader of the Lunatic Fringe breaking off from the Lunatic Fringe of McCovey Chronicles
by TexasRanger on Jun 5, 2009 12:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good
Felix is pretty good. And we may not have seen him reach his potential yet.
by sharksrog on Jun 5, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats what really made his win totals pop out at me, I think he could be a top 10 starter
Proud leader of the Lunatic Fringe breaking off from the Lunatic Fringe of McCovey Chronicles
by TexasRanger on Jun 5, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh how I wish this could be true.
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on Jun 5, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
King of the 130 club.
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list, n/a on a stat sheet.
BBk supports Sleepy's Law: "As a hoops discussion grows longer, the probability of an absurd trade proposal involving LeBron James approaches 1."
by BrianBokake on Jun 5, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cole Hamels anyone?
42 wins at age 25
The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jun 5, 2009 6:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2009/6/5/899727/next-to-300#16603983
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on Jun 5, 2009 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
links to this page……?
The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jun 5, 2009 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you read the comment to which it links?
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on Jun 6, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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