OT: Amare to GS rumored trade thoughts
by Fresburg on Jun 28, 2009 8:03 PM PDT
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So obviously this rumor had a lot of momentum prior to Nelly proclaiming Curry being off limits, but I'd bet on it being more posturing to try to either get more or give less for Amare. It's been rumored that the trade is being held up by some bonus that hits Biedrins on Wednesday.
For those of you following the trade rumor, what is your perception of it from the GS point of view? Here in Phoenix it seems like the fans would be thrilled with a package of Curry, Wright, Biedrins, Belineli, and/or Azuibuke. The feeling is that Amare is going to opt out after next season and doesn't want to be in Phx. It doesn't seem like anyone here would miss his lack of defense and selfishness on offense.
So do you see this trade still happening, and as a Golden State fan, do you want Amare for that haul?
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I only want an Amare trade under 2 conditions
1. No Curry or Randolph in the trade
2. Amare signs a long-term extension before the trade
then it won’t get done…… I strongly doubt the Suns could find an offer better than Biedrins+Wright+Belinelli for Amare. With the size of the extension Amare will command, his lack of effort on defense and below average rebounding ability I’m not certain that 3 for 1 is a good deal for the Warriors, I am certain any 4 for 1 or any deal involving Curry and Biedrins for Amare is a very bad deal for the Warriors. The Warriors smartest move would probably be to look elsewhere for a trade that won’t require they give up quite so much. (Kirilenko? Prince? Love?)
Thing A
yea him too. I’ve always really, really liked Camby. He’s not much of an offensive upgrade, but he can hit the elbow jumper. The Clippers obviously want to clear some frontcourt room so I don’t think they’d have a whole lot of interest in Biedrins or Wright……maybe Sterling still has his man-crush on Maggette? I’d absolutely love a deal like that, but I doubt it would happen.
Thing A
There continually have been rumors of Baron coming back to GS for Maggette since last year. I wonder if we could get Camby too, probably have to give up Biedrins to make it happen for the salary, but Baron and Camby for Mags and Biedrins (and probably 1 other player) I’d do it.
Never going to happen though. :(
The Sixers are also rumored to be trying to give away Elton Brand. I think he’d be a lot cheaper then Amare, and he comes with the same injury concerns, if not more so. Also is signed for 5 more years.
i don't know
I’d have very mixed feelings about Baron coming back. I love him here, but he was really pretty awful last year. It just be Dunleavy and the Clippers aura bringing him down but he does seem to have a lot of interests outside of basketball and his body has been breaking down for years. There’s a lot of money and a lot of years left on his contract….its pretty Rowandesque. I’d probably swap Maggette for him and even throw in Belinelli or the favorable contract of Speedy or Law, but I don’t think I’d sweeten the pot by exchanging a good 23 year old center for a slightly better, but much more banged up, 35 year old one.
Thing A
Eh
Im on the fence. I have a feeling this trade doesnt go through.
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I for one like Biedrins better than Amare, but not too many share my opinion. Amare’s talent lies predominantly in his physical explosiveness, which I don’t see lasting beyond two or three more years. I also like my centers to play defense, which Andris does well.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jun 28, 2009 8:18 PM PDT reply actions
Andris does not play good defense, too many times he is caught just standing to try not to foul (which he ends up fouling anyways). He is a good rebounder, but also, in the games when he did not play, the Warriors as a team rebounded just as well as they did when he played (mostly due to Randolph, but also I know that Andris takes at least 3, or 4 rebounds away from his own team).
BUT, I don’t want Amare if it’s going to take Wright, Curry, Ellis, or Randolph (especially Randolph).
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
his defense is above average
Our centers look bad(Turiaf and Biedrens) because our guards don’t know how to defend. Dribble penetration will do that…thank god Crawfords gone.
Quite true, and they don’t look bad in any case. Andris does struggle with the pick and roll, though, often getting caught in no mans land.
I liked crawford, but as has been said, he couldn’t defend a couch. I wish Monta played defense; he can, he did under montgomery…but he certainly doesn’t now.
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by haverecords on Jun 28, 2009 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I disagree, Turiaf looks fantastic defensively, Biedrins looks bad.
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
Statistically the defense was slightly better with Biedrins in the lineup than it was with Turiaf in the lineup. Turiaf is a better one on one defender but he chases the blocked shot far too often. Biedrins’ elite defensive rebounding numbers and thus the ability to limit the number of extra possessions the other team gets more than compensates for his lack of defensive ability.
Thing A
How many times does other teams back up centers have to put up 15-10 against the Warriors for people to realize Biedrins doesn’t play good D?
Biedrins makes people like Greg Oden and Marcin Gortat look like All-Stars
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
Greg Oden and Marcin Gortat are both very good centers. I said that Biedrins doesn’t play great d, but you really can’t argue that his elite rebounding ability makes his defense acceptable. Again, the defense was statistically better with Biedrins in the lineup than it was with Turiaf. Obviously anyone who watches can see that Turiaf is a better one on one defender, but rebounding is THAT important and Turiaf doesn’t do it well at all.
Thing A
Gortat and Oden are far from very good centers. Gortat doesn’t even start, and even if he weren’t playing behind Howard he still wouldn’t start on most teams.
no other center in the league would start over Howard so that part of your argument is totally ridiculous. The guy averaged 11 pts, 13 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per 36 minutes while shooting 57% from the field. Thats pretty damn good. Thats better production than the Celtics, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Knicks, Sixers, Hornets, Spurs, Raptors, Nuggets, Bulls, Cavs, Pistons, Pacers, Thunder, Jazz, Bucks, Bobcats, Heat, Kings, or Wizards got from their starting centers this season. That’s most teams in the league.
Thing A
It wasn’t part of my argument, that’s why I said “even if he weren’t playing behind howard”.
The per 36 minutes stats are flawed. Use them all you want but they are not realistic expectations of what someone would do in regular minutes against starters. You can make quite a few crappy players look great by their 36 minute stats. The dude was in the D-league in 2008. He’s not a “very good center”.
He’s not starting over Perkins, Damp, Marc Gasol, Dalembert (maybe), Chandler, Duncan, Kenyon Martin/Nene, Brad Miller, Shaq, Okur, Bogut, Jermaine O’neal (who played the 5 for Miami), Spencer Hawes.
This
Gortat doesn’t even startwas part of your argument, no?
Per 36 minute stats are actually extremely accurate and given a decent sample size, they provide a very, very good idea of what someone would do. If you don’t believe this I suggest you look up jae over at Golden State of Mind, he’s got all kinds of data to support that notion that he’d be more than happy to share with you. I didn’t used to believe it either.
Honestly, given a few weeks I’m fairly certain he’d start ahead of almost half the guys you listed and start next to almost all the rest.
Thing A
Turiaf defends the pick and roll better, but because of his single minded desire to block shots, he doesn’t rebound. Personally I like Andris and Turiaf together, because they both work hard, but this argument is moot. Amare is a bottom 5 defensive big in the league. He is horrible.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jun 29, 2009 6:16 AM PDT up reply actions
That is a good point that Amare also doesn’t play D, but I think people are overrated the fact that Biedrins plays good D in this trade.
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
That’s a good point, because all I hear from Phoenix is how great a defender Biedrins is because he grabs rebounds.
great? no, he’s not great. But as can be seen with our team last year, his elite rebounding ability does make him a better defensive player than many players who are better one-on-one defensive players. As much as some people are overrating Biedrins defensive ability, you guys seem to be underrating the importance of rebounding at least as much.
Thing A
He should rebound in that system. More shots = more rebounds. That doesn’t mean you’re a good rebounder.
Fans defended the Suns’ poor defense for years in D’Antoni’s system because they always lead the league in defensive rebounds. But when you allow the team you are playing to shoot more shots than they average, they’re going to miss more, and create more rebounds.
the “system” had virutally NO effect on Turiaf’s rebound rate. The idea that rebound rates vary as players move from “system” to “system” is a myth, it just doesn’t happen. Rebounding is the most consistent statistical category in basketball. Guys usually either are good/great rebounders or they are not, once they get into their early/mid 20s their rates do not change much with age or a change of teams. Biedrins is one of the most elite rebounders in the league.
Even if your theory were true (and its not) it wouldn’t matter because the difference between the two players in question would be the same. Stoudemire would be one of the worst rebounding big men of our time as his rebound per minute rate never even came close to Biedrins’ despite the fact that the Suns were hoisting up more shots than anyone in the league. As it is Stoudemire is simply a slightly below average rebounder (assuming no Shaq) and Biedrins is truly among the league’s elite.
Thing A
He is a good rebounder..
But when he was hurt, the Warriors as a team rebounded at the same rate as when he was in the line up. Most of that was due to the fact Randolph had the same amount of rebounds/minute as Biedrins did.
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
yea both Randolph and Biedrins appear to have elite rebounding ability, but we haven’t seen them play together much. I’d like to see just how good a rebounding team we might be with both of them rather than depend entirely upon Randolph as the only big man who rebounds his position at or above an average rate.
Thing A
Well rebounding is part of defense, but I think your observation of “Team X’s backup center put 15 and 10 on Andris, therefore he sucks” is inherently flawed. Marcin Gortat put’s up career number against the Warriors because Jameer Nelson and Hedo get into the lane at will against the Warriors perimeter defense, forcing Andris to leave his man to help. This is not bad defense by Biedrins. This is bad perimeter defense. If Gortat was consistently thrown the ball in the post and beat Andris one on one you would have an argument, but I know that wasn’t the case because I saw the game.
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by Smotheredinhugs on Jun 29, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Warriors problem is defense
trading for a PF(who would be playing C for us), that doesn’t rebound or defend very well, is very dumb.
not really
the priority is getting better players. After that the focus should be on getting better defensively and certainly not getting worse on the boards. Stoudemire is a better player than Biedrins, so he would fit the bill there, but considering the financial price tag, the fact that the team would get even worse defensively and not rebound as well, and the price tag in terms of the young players the Warriors would be forced to give up he’s not the best trade target. Also, Stoudemire is an explosive scorer but I wouldn’t really describe him as a “low post presence.”
Thing A
Agreed
Firepower is never a Nelson team problem. This team needs Larry Smith again. And I can just see Stoudamire coming down with a series of injuries building on top of his old ones.
I’d rather not give up Biedrins or Curry.
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Firepower from outside is fun during the regular season, but it doesn’t work in playoff basketball. No matter how great the Magic are from outside, they don’t make the Finals without Howard inside.
I don’t know much about basketball but it doesn’t seem like it’d be a good deal.
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Amare is overrated..
He has good name value, and the Warriors would sell more tickets, but he isn’t a superstar. He’s not one of those players that can create for himself consistently, he needs a Steve Nash.
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
But he does have Ellis. And he’s probably the biggest offensive force in the post in the NBA. Fits right into Nellie’s system, a flawed as that system is.
Bruce Bochy would like you to look at the career numbers and stop complaining.
Ellis is a drive-and-kick two. He is not a play-making point. Playing him and Curry together would kill the defense, but you’d have two complimentary combo guards out there that, together, would be able to make some plays for the rest of the team.
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Pre-microfracture surgery Amare was one of the best and most talented players in the league. The biggest key to the deal is if he can get back to that level.
If the W’s think he can, I’d say pull the trigger on any deal not including Ranolph or Curry/Ellis (I might be willing to lose one of those to make the deal).
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Actually last year he was down five points/game of his pre-injury season and his blocks/game were his career low. You’re right about all his other stats though, which is why I’d agree that the Warriors should make the deal.
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BBk supports Sleepy's Law: "As a hoops discussion grows longer, the probability of an absurd trade proposal involving LeBron James approaches 1."
he definitely struggles with his back to the basket, or with a big 325 7 footer clogging up the lane, but I wouldn’t say he struggles to create his own shot.
He can create his own shot, but fails to do it consistently.. He will on occasion hit an outside jumper, or take the ball to the hoop, but he isn’t someone you run an offense through.
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
I completely disagree. He probably has the best jumper of any power forward in the league, and he can finish off the dribble with the best of them. If he’s not someone you run an offense through, then I don’t know who is.
To me, his defense and desire are his only question marks. I don’t know if there is a better offensive power forward in the league.
There isn’t a better one. Frankly I’m not sure why anybody would be against adding a legit frontcourt All-Star. Biedrins will never be one. Let the Suns have his contract for the next 4-5 years. We get at the least 1 year of Amare, and salary relief.
Anything we supposedly lose in defense with losing Biedrins and getting Amare we gain so much more in a low post presence who can actually score in the paint. Amare also is a threat away from the basket with his jumper. And he’s a huge threat in the fastbreak. He would open up the offense for Ellis, Jack and others.
9 million per year for a guy who will average a strong double double is not the kind of contract you want to unload for salary relief. Especially when, unlike most NBA contracts, it doesn’t increase at all, its 9 mil every single year. Especially when the player is 23 years old. Amare is a far superior offensive player. Superior enough to outweigh Biedrins’ substantial edge in rebounding, Biedrins’ slightly better record of health, slightly better play at the defensive end, and probably enough to even outweigh the financial cost (keeping Amare would cost almost double what Biedrins makes) But don’t get too distracted by, or place too much importance on the “All-Star” title. That really just means he’s very good at scoring points, and ignores the other aspects of the game where Biedrins is a much better player. (another thing not discussed much is Biedrins’ passing ability which seems to improve consistently every year, and his ability to pull down the rebound and put the ball on the floor once or twice to start the break-only one or two other centers in the league can do that, Amare isn’t one of them.) Like I said Amare’s offensive value is so great that it probably outweighs Biedrins’ advantages in other areas, but not nearly enough to make me willing to include Wright (per36 his numbers are quite good) AND Curry.
Thing A
I’m not saying Amare isn’t better than Biedrins, I’m just hesitant to give up Biedrins AND Wright.. Wright is still very young and raw and could become a player just as good as Amare in a couple years. Plus Amare will be more expensive after this year (if they can even keep him)
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
I'd do the trade under these conditions
-No Curry in the trade
-Biedrins, Belli, and Wright for Amare. No Buike unless we get someone back
-Amare agrees to sign a contract extension beforehand
The Suns at this point have no leverage, they know Amare is gone after next year, so trying to extract Curry in the deal shouldn’t work (then again, we are talking about the Warriors FO.) They can try and make the deal work with another team, if they find a better offer, great, but I highly doubt they will find much better than AB,BW, and Belli for a guy who is definitely not in their future plans. The best option would be to see where the Warriors are at with the current roster to start the season, if things are going well, forget about it, if not, re-visit the deal at trade deadline when the Suns will be desperate to get SOMETHING.
On a side note, can the Warriors trade these guys to the Bucks and get Prince Fielder (some sort of cross sport trade that gets the Giants the power bat they desperately need. ) The Giants, in my opinion, would be a lock for the Wild Card this year, and maybe even NL West Champs next year with that lineup. IF ONLY…sigh
Agree 100%
Suns have zero leverage…
Yes, Amare is a top 5 PF in the league, but he is coming off a freak injury (detached retna) and he can easily opt out next year if he is traded to the Warriors. All indications are he will opt out next year anyways so the Suns can basically lose him for nothing. To demand Stephen Curry when you already are potentially receiving a Starting Center (Biedrins), and a young PF with huge potential (Wright). Throw in Belli and/or Buike and you have yourself two guards that will likely play a role on your team in the future. Biedrins, Belli, and Wright definately seems like a good deal for both sides.
I’ll go with this, but Azubuike isn’t a deal breaker. He’s nothing special.
by microwave donut on Jun 29, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I say no Wright either..
I still don’t want to give up on him.
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
I'd gladly trade Curry and Biedrins
I don’t see why people love Curry so much. Still, I guess if we don’t have to trade him, I’d prefer not to.
The key is the extension
I was a Curry skeptic also
He could be a special player like Randolph could
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Curry will be a star for years to come
He comes from good stock and won’t be intimidated by any player or team.
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by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Jun 29, 2009 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Not sold on Curry
He is a 6’3" combo guard. He’s unproven at point, and his shot could be seriously affected by the length in the NBA. To me, he has just as good a chance to be JJ Reddick.
why would a guy with a good chance to be JJ Reddick not being included be a dealbreaker for you then?
Thing A
Because of what he represents for the Phoenix fans. Although I’m not sold on him, that doesn’t mean that fans won’t get excited about having him—just like Warriors fans are.
The suns can’t afford to trade with GS without included either Curry or Randolph. The fans will just view it as another salary dump and there have already been too many of those.
the fans will view it as a salary dump because if he’s moved thats what it will be. Again, as explosive of an offensive player as Amare is I don’t think you can expect to get more than one really good young player in return for a guy who has some injury concerns (though I tend to think those are overstated) is going to command a max money deal that will take him well into his 30’s, doesn’t rebound well, and is pretty bad at one-half of the game. The only way I see Curry’s name working its way back into these negotiations is if they start talking Maggette, Curry, Claxton/Turiaf
Thing A
I agree that the Suns shouldn’t have any leverage. I don’t see Amare signing long-term with anyone he gets traded to.
However, the Suns can either dump him for expiring contracts, or trade him for young talent. Any expiring contract will send the message of a salary dump and will go over terribly. They’d be better off keeping him and letting him opt out. So if they trade him it has to be for rebuilding through young talent—unless it’s for Bosh or Al Jefferson.
which is my point, even getting just Biedrins for Amare would be better than watching him walk away. Good 23 year old centers locked up on very reasonable contracts aren’t all that easy to find. Because other teams know this and the concerns about Amare that I expressed above I don’t think its reasonable to think that the Suns will get one of the most coveted rookies from this draft, a good young center locked up, and two other nice young pieces. I know they were probably just hoping that a shiny new athletic PF who scores in bunches and incredibly efficiently would distract other teams form thinking the move all the way through, but iIt actually seems pretty outrageous that they would expect that kind of return.
Thing A
I’d trade for Amare. I don’t even care if he doesn’t sign an extension here. Having him for this season will give the Warriors a shot at making the playoffs as an 8th or 7th seed. Trading Biedrins for Amare also frees up cap space, as Biedrins is locked up for like another 5 years, as good useful as he is, I’d rather pay someone that kind of money who can actually score points in the post.
I don’t want to trade Curry and don’t think the Warriors do either. Curry I think would be better then Ellis is. Ellis is more explosive but he has the I.Q. of a rock and clearly isn’t ever going to be able to play PG effectively. Curry could IMO. He also projects to be a better shooter, I like that he has a really quick release on his shot.
Amare for Biedrins, Belinelli and another player is fine by me. Like Wright. Randolph isn’t going anywhere. If we trade Curry, the Suns better send Earl Clark in the trade.
I'm not that familiar with the mysteries of the NBA luxury tax
But I’m pretty sure that 1) Amare will demand a max contract, or very close to it, and 2) a team on which Amare is the best player probably isn’t a very good team.
So if the Warriors have the financial flexibility to extend Amare and still go out a get a better player (preferably a distributing point guard with enough strength to cover for Monta’s defensive shortcomings), then I’m for it. I don’t think the W’s are going to get anywhere with the current makeup of the team (after all if #2 above is true, where does that leave a team on which Amare is clearly better than the best player?). If acquiring Amare would financially hamstring the Warriors, then I don’t see the point. It would be the basketball equivalent of the Arod in Texas (I’d say Zito, but I doubt Amare would bomb that obviously on the court). In a league where half the team make the playoffs and the bottom seed so rarely advance, I don’t see the point in tying up the payroll long-term just to scrape in as a 6/7/8 seed.
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a team on which Amare is the best player probably isn’t a very good team.
Great point, I agree that we have assets to trade, but I just don’t think Amare is the answer. I still would like the Warriors to explore a Chris Bosh trade.
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
Don't trade Curry
Shooting is a lost art in the NBA. It’s a rarer skill than being 6’11".
I’d consider trading for a true center, but the Warriors aren’t so in need of a PF or a Victor Alexander-sized center that they can sacrifice an excellent guard who will step in and possibly be their best point or shooting guard right away.
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Well… some of the best shooters in the league are jj reddick and jason kapono. Neither of them are any good.
With that said, I dont like the Curry-Reddick comparisons. Curry was triple teamed just about every night with noone decent to take the pressure off of him, posted very high assist numbers, added good dribble penitration ability.
http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/5/15/875835/curry-and-redick-pt-i
btw I or any warriors fan would salivate if curry+wright was all it took, and Im a big fan of both of them
by lincypoo i wuv u on Jun 29, 2009 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Trading for Amare would be a mistake for the Warriors. He will opt out after next year and try to get himself with his old coach in New York who will have cap space in 2010. Curry will be a star in this league for years and the Warriors would be smart to hold on to him. You better fire Nelson right now, because he doesn’t have much time left and he’s going to do something stupid for the short term that will hurt the franchise long after he’s gone.
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by say hey nation on Jun 29, 2009 10:57 AM PDT reply actions
Bring Amare
trade Biedrins Belinelli and Wright maybe also a 2010 first rounder
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by i love sports101 on Jun 29, 2009 5:33 PM PDT reply actions
pretty sure
the Warriors can’t trade a future 1st round pick until they give up the pick they owe NJ in that awful Williams deal.
Thing A
For what it's worth
I heard this morning that Jason Richardson worked out with Curry and claims on his twitter that Curry is legit and that GS fans should be excited.
Why he would say that in the middle of trade negotiations though, I know not. Man am I regretting approving of the J Rich trade to the Suns.
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