Harold Reynolds thinks OPS is dumb
Reynolds blog post on how lame OPS is cuz its dumb lol. Excerpt below:
"But what I've been witnessing while I've been a broadcaster is everyone using these stats to try and explain the game of baseball. Not all statistics work. Some do, some don't. And one of the stats that has become real popular is OPS. On-base plus slugging. All of a sudden, it's this stat that defines whether a guy is a good ball player or not. And the fact of the matter is, if you're a power hitter then the situation will dictate what a pitcher does with you - either walk you or pitch you real careful. So more than likely you're going to end up on base and therefore your on-base percentage goes up. This in my mind has become the stat the everyone thinks is the be all and end all. It is not. If you have a ball club that's a great offensive team then that changes everything. But if you have a guy like Adrian Gonzalez, for example, his OPS is going to be high - he's got a lot of home runs and walks a lot...because you're not going to pitch to him. Power guys like Giambi and Dunn have always had high OPS because no one wants to pitch to them. But it takes two hits to score them from first.
This is how the game has changed. Dick Williams is pulling his hair out. This is not something people have reinvented in the game. You can go all the way back to Dave Kingman. When Kingman was hot, you didn't pitch to him. If he wasn't hot, you pitched to him. Big power hitters swing and miss and strikeout. Or they hit home runs and walk. And at the end of the year their OBP is always going to be higher than most of the other guys on the team because they clog the bases."
Read the story URL for some more Reynolds gold.
over 2 years ago
GameSix
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OH Harold. :(
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 22, 2009 2:17 PM PDT reply actions
Poor Harold. Someone needs to give him a hug. Wait, maybe that’s a bad idea.
"Are we bad? No. But right now, we are." Boulderskull, 4.16.09
He’d appreciate it if you didn’t tell anyone about his busy hands.
On 5/7, the best part of waking is up LOLDGERS in my cup.
I AM WATCHING YOU THROUGH A CAMERA
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 22, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
but he thinks sexual harassment is smart
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 22, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions
This is a good analysis from Beyond the Box Scores
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/22/919854/defending-harold-reynolds
We should all remember this when using uber 1337 sabermetric speech amongst the casual fans.
But it takes two hits to score them from first.
’
And this is different from any other player how?
Sure, some guys can score from first sometimes on doubles, but still.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
it takes a lot more than two hits to score a guy who doesn’t reach base
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 22, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
if a player has SPEED he can stealz second
and then score on 1 hit.
And then he can go play DEFENSE and take runz away from the other team.
Nobody tell Harold Reynolds that there are power hitters with SPEED, though.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
On-base plus slugging. All of a sudden, it’s this stat that defines whether a guy is a good ball player or not. And the fact of the matter is, if you’re a power hitter then the situation will dictate what a pitcher does with you – either walk you or pitch you real careful. So more than likely you’re going to end up on base and therefore your on-base percentage goes up.
…
Power guys like Giambi and Dunn have always had high OPS because no one wants to pitch to them.
If nobody wants to pitch to you, that’s probably a good sign that you’re a good ballplayer. Hey, look – the system works!
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
That was tough to read. It was basically stream of consciousness.
My favorite part:
This is how the game has changed. Dick Williams is pulling his hair out. This is not something people have reinvented in the game.
"Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense."
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's [no, make that Rowand's] contract.
Adoptive father of "Poncho" Villalona: This Angel don't fly. Nothing about him is light.
God, these guys are just stupid
What they might as well say:
“I am just more comfortable looking at the traditional stats—BA, HR, RBI—than I am looking at these newfangled stats. When I played, they didn’t have these stats. NOW GET OFF OF MY LAWN!”
He has a valid point about walking a big, slow guy. Although I think he meant 3 hits to score them from 1st.(not 2)
Like how many more times would Bengie score if he actually walked more. One more run a month?
maybe.
but maybe we’d also see bullpens earlier, and score more runs that way.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
Bengie Molina is probably the slowest guy in all of professional baseball, so he’s not a very good example.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
Yeah, but a walk isn’t going to do that much for your OPS. You actually need, like, extra-base hits to get a good OPS.
I mean, walks don’t hurt, but srsly.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 22, 2009 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m convinced that Bengie refuses to walk because he doesn’t want to run the bases.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 23, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions
OPS or OPP or ABCs
not every player should be judged solely by OPS. Believe a 680 OPS by Manny Burriss could make him a very valuable player. SLG of 315 and OBP of 365 is more than sufficient.
Oh, that’s for sure. OPS under appreciates OBP, and it doesn’t say anything about baserunning or defense. Nobody thinks that Reynolds is wrong that OPS is an incomplete stat, they’re just making fun of him because he can’t write.
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
And because being right that something is insufficient doesn’t mean you’re not being dumb for being wrong about why it’s insufficient.
It’s like saying racism is wrong because soul food is delicious. You may have come to the right conclusion, but you’re still wrong.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 22, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions
OH SHIT!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 22, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not sure why he used Adrian Gonzalez as an example of why OPS is flawed. OPS says AGone is a good player because he’s a good player.
Jesse Foppert: I Still Believe. Maybe a little less now.
"I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen." ~Bob Lemon,
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Jun 22, 2009 4:14 PM PDT reply actions
it really is a stupid example, regardless of what stats one prefers everybody who knows anything about baseball would agree that Adrian Gonzalez is one of the best players in the game.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 22, 2009 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes but he also mentioned Adam Dunn. Who doesn’t even like baseball.
(just like Robin Yount)
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on Jun 23, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
not really about Reynold's thesis
but I like what Reynolds, or really, Dick Williams had to say about playing to the situation. Williams expected his players to be smart and know the situation and what it called for and (try at least) to do that. I think the Giants could use more of that instead of relying on the “see ball, hit ball” mentality regardless of the situation.
Given the team’s limited power and lack of excellent baseball players, playing smarter situational baseball would help to create more run scoring opportunities, and it would be less frustrating to watch.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 23, 2009 12:07 PM PDT reply actions
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