Consistency, Matt Cain's Virtue in 2009?
by jctGamer on Jun 2, 2009 11:45 AM PDT
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PrintMuch has been made about Cain's loss of velocity on his fastball. I went to look at his average / range on fastball velocity and started exploring what I have noticed more often this year : throwing change up in a fastball count. He's doing that this year, and taking advantage of the hitters aggressiveness with runners on base.
Something else he is doing : Throwing curveball to steal strike one.
Season Fastball Slider Curve Change
2007 64.6% 19.3% 6.3% 9.3%
2008 65.9% 14.1% 10.1% 9.3%
2009 62.7% 9.3% 15.5% 12.0%
Looking at this fastball velocity graph, it appears he is being a lot more consistent with both average and range on his fastball this year compared to the last 2 years.
Moreover, his horizontal movement on his fastball is also more consistent (on the good side) compared to last year and the year before. Averaging -4.3 this year compared to -3.1 last year. I would assume this means he is more effective to right handed hitters than years past
Overall, Matt Cain is pitching just as well as years past, he is just doing it with more consistency, and pitching to contact more while going deeper into games. He has pitched into the 7th innings in every single one of his starts this year. Is this his greatest strength in 2009? Consistency?
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Personally, I think his greatest strength has been his OBP of .368, which ranks him 3rd on the team (among those with 10 or more plate appearances).
by Bay Area Sports Guy on Jun 2, 2009 12:19 PM PDT reply actions
Is that a joke?
He has a .618 OPS in 21 PA’s, whereas he is number 3(!!) in ERA in the National League.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
j/k
He’s a tad more valuable as a pitcher than a hitter.
by Bay Area Sports Guy on Jun 2, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I can’t wait till Molina starts talking about his contract situation and how it’s the reason he’s falling off a cliff.
Frankly
I think the reason Molina is falling off a Cliff is entirely BABIP related. Off the top of my head, his peripherals look consistent w/ what we’ve come to expect.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Makes sense. His stats have been more or less batting average-driven for years.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
If by more or less, you mean completely.
Molina right now is a prime of example of what happens to a pretty good player who doesn’t walk when they run into a string of bad luck.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, there has been some legitimate power/line-drive ability thrown in there. That’s why it’s just more or less.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
power/line drive ability
Is still BABIP dependent. Players who consistently show patience at the plate tend to keep walking through BABIP slumps – hence maintaining a much more constant OBP and value to the team.
Hackers who fall into BABIP slumps become automatic outs, and it hurts the team a lot.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Not really. His BABIP is definitely low – .253, but his career BABIP is only .281 (pretty easy to guess why), so he has’t been that unlucky. His BB% is 1.1%, a career low, while his K% is 12.7 % – the highest it’s been since 2001. His BB/K is 0.09! In other words, opposing pitchers have a 11.1 K/BB against him. Pedro Martinez’s career high was 8.88.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
Well, certainly
But that is still a pretty significant drop in BABIP.
Also, look at his split. In may, his BABIP is .189.
His overall line is bad because of both very few walks as well as disappearing BABIP in May. However, our memory and perception is primarily the product of that .189 BABIP in may.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, FWIW
SSS on the Walks. Career % of 4% is only 5 or so more walks than he currently has over 200 PA’s. It’s not impossible to envision a scenario where Bengie had walked a few additional times so far this season due to natural fluctuation.
But certainly, the combination of BB%, K%, and BABIP = uguly.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Month to month BABIP splits are always funky.
He is posting the worst K/BB of his career by far. I don’t think you can dismiss it with SSS, since K% and BB% are the two stats that normalize the quickest, so neither one requires a very big sample size.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
Well, I'm not trying to dismiss it
I’m just stating that if BM had a career normal BABIP this month, we probably wouldn’t be complaining right now.
In other words, normalize his stats to career k% and bb% and his line still sucks.
Just did it, and it comes out to .272/.284/.454 OPS of .738.
Not bad for a catcher, I guess – but still pretty bad. Only thing saving him is the power this season (which is well above what one might expect)
Bengie is a funny player when it comes to career #’s, cause his performance in recent years has been so dissimilar w/ his career.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
In other words, normalize his stats to career k% and bb% and his line still sucks.
Just did it, and it comes out to .272/.284/.454 OPS of .738.
I normalized the BABIP and kept the BB% and K%, and got /277/.287/.430, pretty similar. So let’s say that it’s 50% bad luck and 50% crappiness.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
I can agree to this!
So now what if we normalize both, is he actually good?
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Cain is not pitching as well as he ever has
His K/9 is down, while his BB/9 is constant. That’s generally not a recipe for improvement.
He is benefiting from an extremely low BABIP with runners on base. This has resulted in an unsustainable 89% strand rate.
That is going to regress, and if he doesn’t start striking out more batters or walking fewer, they are going to start scoring.
Is it possible that the lower k/9 is by design? Certainly. Perhaps he is pitching to contact trying to get deeper in games, and that is certainly worth something. It’s also possible that his K/BB will increase as the season progresses – it has historically.
But he’s just not this good ( 2.31 ERA, no shit!). He is still, however, very good. I am still expecting this to be a career year for him, and if his luck holds out he may possibly be in Cy young discussions.
I expect him to regress to his career norms or slightly better for the rest of the season, resulting in a season ERA somewhere around the mid – low 3’s.
His K/9 will improve. i KNOW IT WILL. :(
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I think it will
It’s reasonable to expect his K% to improve about 3% over the season…
Problem is even after doing that, it still won’t be where it was the last 2 seasons.
I hope this is due more to a change in approach than a loss of effectiveness. The results would somewhat indicate this.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions
FWIW
It’s also possible that Cain, being not likely Saber-enlightened, is quite enamored w/ his new shiny ERA.
Perhaps he has tried to pitch more to contact, and is looking at that ERA and thinking “It’s really working, why fuck with it?”
If that is the case, once that starts to regress one can only hope he says fuckit and starts striking guys out again.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions
But if he’s throwing consistently slower than he did last year, how is that a good thing?
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
Matt Cain has finally learned to be consistent. Consistency is a very important thing in a consistent game like baseball, which is a game of consistency. In years past Cain was not consistent and that led to a low rate of consistency. What I am trying to say is that since he learned to pitch consistently he has become much more consistent.
sincerely j.m.
Proud leader of the Lunatic Fringe breaking off from the Lunatic Fringe of McCovey Chronicles
not seein' it
Your graphs do not demonstrate consistency.
I suppose you could calculate Standard Deviations, but it doesn’t look like you have enough data points to bother.
Also, since his FIP, K/BB, and other numbers are all somewhat WORSE than the rest of his career, I think you are looking for an explanation where none is warrented. He has stranded more baserunners (87+%)., and gotten more run support, so he looks like he is having more success, when actually, he’s the same ol’ Matt Cain – solid no. 2 starter.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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He's actually not the same old matt cain
He’s a worse Matt Cain who isn’t striking as many players out.
See above.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Joe Morgan Says
Matt Cain is clutch!
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Also
He learned how to win. Brandon Webb taught him during the off season.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
disagree
sample size.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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eh, I don't know
his K/BB rate is definately lower than his career #‘s (or 2008 #’s) and the sample isn’t that small…
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Considering his BB rate is consistent w/ his career
Holding that constant, he would have had to strike out 9 more batters across his 10 games to get up to his 2007/2008 K/BB ratio.
I don’t think you can easily dismiss a 20% decrease in strikeouts as random fluctuation at this point.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
are you kidding me?
Look at this one:
I see big ol’ chunks of of 60 innings in the 6.x K/9 range…
What’s the SD on K/9 across major leaguers?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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You're lovin the graphs...
I’m still not sure I agree with you. ’08 only shows a drop in K/9 at the end of the season – which would not be unimaginable due to fatigue. 07 half a season of low K/9 combined with a strong second half. Do we all remember 07, when Cain started out so meh, but ended incredibly strong?
The beginning of ‘09 looks a lot like the beginning of ’08, but with a negative 1.2 k/9 shift. I don’t see anything in his past performance that suggests that will suddently jump to 9k+/9 in the last half of the season, returning him to career averages. I do think he might improve his K/9 as the season goes on, but not enough to make up for what he’s done.
If you want to look at it that way – look at this graph compared to your K/9 offering. When Matt’s K/9 drops, his ERA goes up.
Except this year. BABIP fluke. He’s getting hitters out on BIP that he used to be striking out (well, and more). That’s luck – so lookout.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t see anything in his past performance that suggests that will suddently jump to 9k+/9 in the last half of the season, returning him to career averages. I do think he might improve his K/9 as the season goes on, but not enough to make up for what he’s done.
Why should he make up for it? If you flip a coin and it lands on heads 5 times straight, would you then expect it to land on tails 5 times straight?
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
He’s always been better in the second half of the year though.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
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Maybe, but that’s not what FWF was saying. He was saying that if Cain’s below average K/9 is a fluke, he should have an above average K/9 from now on, to return to his career averages. That’s not how it works.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
No, that is not what I am saying
But that is Zen’s arguement – he’s had patches of 6k/9 before, and then patches of 9 + kk/9 which “balances” him out and gets him back to his career average.
I was refuting that as much as you are. He’s had an extended period of 6 k/9 and that’s not gonna get undone.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he was just trying to show how small the sample size is, by showing how unstable Cain’s K rate has been in similar sample sizes.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
right
I am not trying to say that he will end up the year with 7.XK/9… just that he has had 60 inning stretches of 6 before.
It’s not that you are wrong, it’s that you are overinterpreting the data. Note that his ZIPS projections (better than you or I eyeballing graphs) at the beginning of the season gave him 7.39K/9. Considering year-to-date, he projects to 7.04. Which would be lower, for the season for sure, but It’s not like you would say ZOMG! K/9 has dropped 4.7%!
But of course he’s going to “on average” be lower for the season if he starts out in the hole 10Ks.
And if he goes out next week and Ks 16 Nationals, he’ll be right back on track.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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ok,
enough with the squiggle gazing.
If you are going to say that the sample is significant, put it into excel, grab the SD for all RHP K/9 and show the p-value or something.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Reminds me of a story....
Way back in corporate life, our division head was fed up with rejected product and down time. He shut the entire division down for 3 days and we got classes in statistics. The end result, we calculated we would need 170 years worth of data to get anything “statistically significant.”
All that being said, often times in life we get pockets of data from which to make a call. The smart ones know when enough is enough, and can move forward on instinct.
Now here, my instinct says…….1) not enough data 2) not enough change
We get more of either/ both and I think we may be able to say something
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Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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This reminds me of a story
Way back in my corporate life….our division leader was getting fed up with manufacturing variations leading to unacceptable defect levels.
He shut everything down and we got a 3 day course in statistics.
The end result…. we would need about 170 years worth of data to have anything be “statistically significant.”
Point being, sooner or later you need to draw conclusions from insufficient data…. and the people that know when enough is enough and can make a the correct gut call are the smart ones.
Not offered as a commentary to either side of this argument, just a commentary to baseball stats in general. Either they make sense or they don’t. This isn’t chemical engineering…and even there you don’t have enough data.
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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well,
they are either smart or lucky. Hard to tell, eh?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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Hard to tell
Unless you have a statistically significant sample
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
The end result…. we would need about 170 years worth of data to have anything be "statistically significant.
Point being, sooner or later you need to draw conclusions from insufficient data"
Only if you don’t have the time to wait until you do have sufficient data. When you need to wait 170 years, you have a problem. When you just need a couple more months, you can afford to wait.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
How the hell did I type that twice?
dang it, I refreshed…didn’t see it…typed it again!
shoulda waited 170 years
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
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this one time...
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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Looking at his K/9 on a month-by-month basis over the last two years, his current K/9 doesn’t look that crazy. This is a guy who had 5.9 K/9 in August 2008 and April 2007, 6 in June 2007, and had a K/9 in the 6 range in two other months. So two months of 6.2 K/9 doesn’t seem ridiculously crazy to me. This is a guy who will go out one week and strike out 11 in 7.1 innings (August 3rd, 2007), then follow it up in his next start by striking out 3 in 6 innings (Aug. 8, 2007).
So is June 2nd really the time to panic?
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
No one is panicing
I’m just saying he’s not pitching all that well, despite the results.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
ironically
that I agree with.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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June 2 is the time to picnic.
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Jun 2, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I lived in Pacifica long enough that I have very generous standards.
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Jun 2, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I think so too. He looks like the same pitcher as ever to me. If his periphs are still wonky in a month, I’ll start to take them seriously.
It's really hard to dismiss more than 1k less per nine
after 10 starts as SSS IMO.
I think he is physically doing something different. Whether it is on purpose or as the result of lost effectiveness is the more important question.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
How about for Scoring Environment?
I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess that the basement is a very low scoring environment.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Consistency
Looking back on it, I didn’t do a good job of pointing this out in my post. I was in a hurry to head out to lunch.
If you look at the game by game comparison from 08 to 09, Cain is throwing closer to his average velocity in 09 than in years past. To put it in layman’s term, Cain has all but eliminated fast balls below 88MPH this year. He is consistently in the low 90s, where as before, he is between 85-95 MPH and everywhere in between.
One interpretation from this is that his mechanics has improved, allowing him to throw the same pitch over and over with similar results.
So why is he walking as many batters as before
As well as striking out less?
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
and you too!
If you are going to say that Cain is more consistant, put it into excel, show that his SD on fastball velocity is significantly declining.
I swear, I love fangraphs, but it’s no substitute for actual math.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
You've got the wrong job
I can only do so much work at work.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 2, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I can only do so much non-work at non-work. Woo.
by lincypoo i wuv u on Jun 2, 2009 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions
At first I was worried about Cain’s K rate, but he really does seem to be making an effort to pitch to contact and be more economical to get deeper into games. I’ve seen him be able to dial it up and get the K when he really needs to. I also like that he’s tried to use his changeup and curve more then just pitching straight off the fastball.
A different look at velocity
cut and paste from something I posted elsewhere
Well, lets look at a couple pitchers who’s velocity loss is fresh in our minds….
Jason Schmidt
2002 = 93.0 MPH
2003 = 95.0 MPH
2004 = 93.5 MPH
2005 = 91.8 MPH
2006 = 92.4 MPH
2007 = 86.9 MPH
Cain looks like a model of consistency compared to Schmidt, and add the known arm troubles he had as far back as 2002 he was pulled from a start with Shoulder Tightness…..
Barry Zito
2002 = 87.1 MPH
2003 = 87.5 MPH
2004 = 86.9 MPH
2005 = 87.3 MPH
2006 = 85.8 MPH
2007 = 84.5 MPH
2008 = 84.9 MPH
2009 = 86.5 MPH
Again, Cain is a model of consistency compared to Zito who lost his magic touch after smoking too many unicorns……
Lets throw in one more pitcher just for fun
Johan Santana
2002 = 91.0 MPH
2003 = 91.7 MPH
2004 = 92.4 MPH
2005 = 92.4 MPH
2006 = 93.1 MPH
2007 = 91.7 MPH
2008 = 91.2 MPH
2009 = 91.0 MPH
He Gained 2.1 MPH and then over the same years in question for Cain, lost 2.1 MPH……you think Johan is worried?
My point? Well, don’t stress out about the velocity data…..you need a lot more evidence about velocity drop than that to get worried, variations happen and it would take more than a 1.6 MPH drop to get me excited……
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Cain's average FB velocity
for reference
2006 = 93.4 MPH
2007 = 93.2 MPH
2008 = 92.4 MPH
2009 = 91.8 MPH
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!
Those guys were all in their late 20’s-early 30’s. Cain is 24, he’s not supposed to be losing velocity.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
He's not
Space is expanding
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!
no
you cannot have my nerdliest comment ever trophy!
Good try, though!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
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Has Cain or the coaching staff ever talked about it? You’ll sometimes hear that a pitcher won’t try to throw as hard in order to gain better control of his fastball. I’m curious if that might be more what’s going on than simply losing velocity. I know, the BB/9 rate would say otherwise, but I’m still curious if anyone from the team has ever addressed this.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
This is a great thread. Very informative.
However, including “Matt Cain’s Virtue” in the title was very misleading.
by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 4, 2009 8:04 AM PDT reply actions
come on now
Cain is not throwing less sliders. What happenned is that his fastballs below 88 mph previously were sliders that did not break. Now when he throws the slider he is getting a consistent break so none of them go over to the fastball column. That is why 1. he is throwing less sliders, and 2. why his fastball is more consistent. Why is he throwing more curves now? 1. Because he can as his control of the curveball has gotten better.
Why is he still walking guys? He is but more consistently.
I find this difficult to justify
1. His slider speed, according to fangraphs, stayed consistent at 85.2 MPH. If the lower fastballs (86-88) really are counted towards his sliders, that would drive up his slider speed, which it didnt.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4732&position=P
2. His slider has decreased from 19 to 14 to 9%. I find it hard to believe that more and more fastballs are being counted towards his sliders.
3. The # of fastballs have stayed consistent from year to year. It is the number of curveballs and changeups that have gone up.
It just doesn’t make sense.
Gone somewhat unnoticed
It has gone somewhat unnoticed that since July 28, 2007, Matt’s consistency has really improved. I’m not sure exactly where he was over his career on quality starts at that point, but it was easily below 60% and may have been closer to 50%. Since that time he has gone over 70% and is just behind Tim Lincecum over the same period. The last I looked (perhaps a start or two ago) Tim was at 73% quality starts over that period, while Matt was at 71%.
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