Zito's start last night...

by FairweatherFan on Jun 16, 2009 12:15 PM PDT Comment 40 comments

Not as bad as it looked.

7 ER in 3.2 innings for a wonderful ERA of 17.18. That looks pretty bad. However, watching the game last night I thought he was generally pitching pretty well - so I decided to look a little deeper.

3 K's, 0 BB, and 2 HR's. FIP of 8.65. Still really bad, but not nearly as bad. Factor in the .770 BABIP and frankly, Zito kinda got screwed. On a night where ATT park turned into pre-humidor Coors field, Zito gave up a pair of gopherballs and got both completely screwed by BABIP as well as sequence of events. After he gave up that last HR, he also looked PISSED... yelling on the mound - etc. I've never seen mr calm and cool like that before.

He didn't walk anyone and he was striking guys out. He was really not noticeably worse in this start than he was on the 24th against Seattle or the 19th against Washington. In fact, Matt Cain had almost as poor of a start on the 9th at Arizona and an even WORSE start on May 2nd at Colorado (10.70 FIP).

So what's my point? Don't flip out. Zito had 6 starts last year that were in the same catagory of suck as this last one, so it's hardly a surprise.

Zito got shelled last night - baseball is a funny sport and these things happen. Johan got shelled the other day, too. I still think Zito is doing pretty well this year.

It would be great if someone can look at pitch F/X and see if there was anything out of whack with his movement/location/velocity, or if he truly just got unlucky.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Also, Zito isn’t that great and a 4.50-4.75 ERA is probably as good it gets for him.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jun 16, 2009 12:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What pissed me off the most

Was the crap he was serving up on 0-2 counts.

by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 16, 2009 12:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

This

And the AB to “french fried potaters”.

Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.

by marcello on Jun 16, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t recall many details from Zito’s start last night, but the two curveballs to strike out Figgins (one swinging, one looking) were pretty filthy.

by deuce deuce on Jun 16, 2009 12:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He was really locating his curveball in the first inning. In fact after that inning I had a pretty good feeling about the game. Problem is when he throws that fastball down the middle of the plate it gets hit hard. He needs to locate that pitch down and away or on the inside corner.

Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.

by WilliamVanLandingham on Jun 16, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

87mph fastballs over the middle of the plate get hit hard.

No one here gets out alive.

by Bond16 on Jun 16, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

is this Mike Krukow?

I kept thinking while watching the game yesterday “it’s too bad Krukow is on vacation, I would love to hear what the ultimate Zito apologist would say about this.”

by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 16, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I am Krukow

You’ve figured it out.

McC's Outstanding Newcomer '08.

by FairweatherFan on Jun 16, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought that was Athletic.

Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear

by Natto on Jun 16, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ATHLETIC WUZ RONG

Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ

by Zetsuboushita on Jun 16, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like it better when he was right ;(

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jun 16, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, weird he hasn’t poked his head in to admit he was wrong.

Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.

by marcello on Jun 16, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And then thank the “cool” Giant fans

and that would be me

NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?

by victor frankenstein on Jun 16, 2009 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

last year, a skipped start helped Zito’s velocity a bit. I don’t think he handles too many starts in a row on a strict 5 day rotation. Somebody may have gotten stats on that last year.

cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"

by foothillsfan on Jun 16, 2009 1:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Shake it off, forget it about, get ’em next time…

No, really, I have updated my blog this year: http://skaldheim.livejournal.com/tag/baseball

by Skaldheim on Jun 16, 2009 1:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

If Zeets had kept things even slightly under control, the G-Men may have had the comeback of the year but instead we get a total loser outing…

He gets the Gen (Giants Entertainment Network) “Doosh of the Night” award

To be fair to Zito however, I will say the rest of the team looked like a sack of shit until KFP stirred thier collective loins

by GeeEssDub on Jun 16, 2009 1:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I did some research

and decided Zito isnt very good

The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.

by GrahamCrakalaka on Jun 16, 2009 2:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

However much time you took, you spent too long.

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!

by Lyle on Jun 16, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't buy the theory that high BABIP = Unlucky

Why is it unlucky? Seemed like Zito made mistakes and the Angels pounded those mistakes. I just don’t understand why that means he got unlucky. The pitch to Aybar was hit exactly where it should have. That pitch was a homerun the moment it left Barry’s hand. Why is that unlucky?

LinceCain and pray for rain .... or for someone to take Zito off our hands.

by Lincecain on Jun 16, 2009 2:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Because, of the hundreds of pitchers in majors, maybe a handful have shown a real ability to consistently keep a low BABIP, and even their BABIP is only slightly lower than the league average.

Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.

:-(

by Cookyman on Jun 16, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it can show whats going on to some degree

But last night isnt one of those times, the Angels just craushed everything

and Zito isnt very good

The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.

by GrahamCrakalaka on Jun 16, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

It makes sense that the pitcher affects his own BABIP. The question is how strong of an affect he has on his BABIP. I’m not really sure what variables you’d want to look at to tease out the pitcher’s own effect on his BABIP, though…

by FPTV on Jun 16, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP depends entirely on where the ball is hit

and where the ball is hit has absolutely nothing to do with the pitcher or batters skill.

McC's Outstanding Newcomer '08.

by FairweatherFan on Jun 16, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know ...

it just seems kind of silly to boil it down to the idea that there is no skill involved from the batter.

LinceCain and pray for rain .... or for someone to take Zito off our hands.

by Lincecain on Jun 16, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Individual batters can to some extent make their “own” BABIP’s, because of how hard they hit the ball, not where they hit the ball. Pitchers really haven’t shown that skill.

Some days, you get rocked. Zito didn’t compound problems by walking things, he just threw bad pitches in the zone. My big worry is that this keeps him from throwing more strikes down the road.

Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.

by MonkeyChow on Jun 16, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did a quick google search...

…because I’m honestly not that familiar with most sabermetric stats. It appears there is some evidence that hitters have influence of their BABIP: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/ .

An analagous article for pitchers’ effect on BABIP, however, is not quite as conclusive: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-different-look-at-babip/ .

by FPTV on Jun 16, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There’s no doubt that hitters have some effect on BABIP. Line drives, high GB/FB ratios, opposite field hitting, speed, and other factors have an affect on BABIP. But the vast majority of players still hang around .300. If a guy BABIP’s .370 for one season, odds are it’s a fluke.

Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.

:-(

by Cookyman on Jun 16, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitter's styles does influence BABIP

But whether or not a line drive to the outfield get’s caught or not is a product of luck, not skill.

Everything hit off Zito last night went where someone wasn’t. That’s not skill of the batter OR lack of skill from Zito, that’s chance.

On another night, those all get caught and we are all sitting here talking about Zito’s great 7-2 win.

That’s baseball.

McC's Outstanding Newcomer '08.

by FairweatherFan on Jun 16, 2009 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, the outfielder's skill has some role.

Not really relevant though.

And while I agree with your main point, I think you are oversimplifying the issue here. It’s not that the balls caught/not are ALL luck, it’s that we can’t really say with any accuracy (yet) which are more “catchable”. I think one of the PBP places tries to put a number on it, like ‘95’ for 95% catchable… but it’s obvioulsly subjective.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Jun 17, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s because over the course of a season, the number of batters faced evens out to league average. Good players and fast players are going to have higher BABIP, and if that one player is faster or hits the ball harder or both, he’s going to have a higher BABIP for the season..

Sure, if a pitcher faced nothing but Pujols and Ichiro, his BABIP allowed would be higher. But the pitchers also get to face pitchers, Manny Burriss, Bengie Molina, etc.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 16, 2009 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because

Hit hard or otherwise, whether or not the ball ends up in someones glove or in a gap is largely due to luck.

Everything they hit off Zito last night went into a gap. That’s no Zito’s fault, that is luck.

The HR’s don’t count against BABIP because they aren’t and never were in play.

How different would that game have been if Lackey’s bloop was hit right at Rowand and and one of those doubles hooked a little less and Sheirholtz was able to catch it?

The fact that those balls dropped instead of got caught was entirely due to chance, not anyone’s skill.

McC's Outstanding Newcomer '08.

by FairweatherFan on Jun 16, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The fact that those balls dropped instead of got caught was entirely due to chance, not anyone’s skill.

You don’t think the batters’ skill has anything to do with that? I’m pretty sure batters are generally trying to hit balls into the gaps. Zito’s pitches just allowed them to put it where they wanted to put it.

by The Double Deuce on Jun 16, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, Luck

I’d like to see ANY shred of evidence that any player can hit live pitching with any sort of accuracy.

McC's Outstanding Newcomer '08.

by FairweatherFan on Jun 16, 2009 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m guessing Tony Gwynn would disagree with you.

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!

by Lyle on Jun 17, 2009 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well it’s not completely luck, because a hard-hit ball is more likely to find a gap, but the batter can’t really hit a bloop single exactly where he wants it.

Some stats like LIPS (Luck-Independent Pitching Statistics) do take the type of hit into account (Fly, Liner, Fliner, Grounder, Infield Popup, etc).

Take Bonds for example – he just crushed the ball, but his highest single-season BABIP was .332 in 2002, and even when he was really fast his highest was .326 in 1993.

How about guys who aren’t sluggers, who hit more GB, and who actively try to direct where the ball is hit? Ichiro’s best BABIP was .401 in 2004, and his career BABIP is .357. Tony Gwynn’s highest was .394 in 1994, and his lifetime BABIP was .345.

There’s only so much you can do to “hit ‘em where they ain’t” when there are 9 fielders out there.

Think about when position players pitch. Sure they are bad, and they will allow runs, but it’s not as if they typically get pounded for 10 runs, and no matter what you think of Zito, the position players are not better pitchers. Even hard-hit balls from terrible pitchers will find fielders. That’s why you don’t want to walk guys. Even some of the most amazing guys like Ichiro and Gwynn managed excellent BABIP of .357 and .345, but that’s not nearly as good as the 1.000 OBP you’re going to get from a walk.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 16, 2009 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think when you look at BABIP over the course of less than four innings, there’s really next to nothing you can take away from it.

I think Zito’s fastball was just plain bad, which resulted in a lot of hard hit balls. The park itself turning into a one-night-only launching pad certainly didn’t help.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 16, 2009 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought the most interesting thing about Zito’s “performance” last night was he was pounding the strike zone. At one point he was 43 out of 55 pitches as strikes. I lost track after that as the more he got shelled, the angrier I got. I guess you chalk it up to the Angels making excellent 0-2 adjustments. I refuse to believe in the “unlucky” or “Zito got screwed” notions though.

LinceCain and pray for rain .... or for someone to take Zito off our hands.

by Lincecain on Jun 16, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Zito is the best pitcher you will see

up to 2 strikes. Watching Zito I have started to take bets on how many pitches he makes after he gets to an 0-2/1-2 count. He regularly gets hitters into pitchers counts and then gets “fine” on them. He starts messin around, getting too smart with his pitches and throws 3,4,5 more pitches before recording an out, giving up a hit, or walking someone.

Last night was the same, except his pitches were all up in the strike zone (rather than away or down) — that is why he got shelled. He always seems to be flirting wth last nights kind of disaster when he pitches. Last night was what can go wrong when you start to trick guys in pitchers counts and they arnt fooled.

Dont get me wrong, 0-2 is a perfect count to throw junk off the plate, but his finish pitch needs to be there for it to work. It wasnt last night.

by uber on Jun 16, 2009 4:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs