The Differences I See In Freddie and Bengie 2009 Vs Their Careers
by giantsrainman on Jun 13, 2009 7:27 PM PDT
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We have already had plenty of discussion on the struggles of these two players thus far in 2009. But these discussions have (at least on my behalf) been focused on the contributions (or lack there of) they have provided to the 2009 Giants thus far. This time I want to look at it from the perspective of discussing the causes of both of their declines. In this fanpost I am not interested in discussing who's decline is worse or which decline has hurt the Giants more. I just want to discuss the causes and perhaps what can be done to address these causes.
First let's take a look at Bengie Molina. For this I am going to look at just Bengie's years as a Giant (likewise by the way for Lewis when his turn comes up). I am going to compare Bengie's K/PA, BB+HBP/PA, HR/PA, and BABIP thus far in 2009 with his combined average for these in 2007 and 2008.
07/08 Bengie was at .084 K/PA, .041 BB+HBP/PA, .032 HR/PA, and .286 BABIP
2009 Bengie is thus far at .124 K/PA, .022 BB+HBP/PA, .040 HR/PA, and .258 BABIP
If Bengie's HR/PA rate was not up I would give consideration to an arguement that Bengie's increased Ks, reduced BBs, and reduced BABIP is a sign that his skill level has begun to decline. But since his HR/PA is up and my eyes watching the game do not see a decline I am more inclined to believe that this is just normal varience and Bengie should return to producing at the talent level he showed in 2007 and 2008 without any changes. I do wish Bengie was more patient in his approach as I think this would indeed lead to more walks and better pitches to hit but alas I think Bengie is one old dog this new trick can not be taught to. What say the rest of the McCoven?
Now let's take a look and Fred Lewis using the same stats.
06-08 Freddie was at .223 K/PA, .103 BB+HBP/PA, .017 HR/PA, and .356 BABIP
2009 Freddie is thus far at .254 K/PA, .122 BB+HBP/PA, .015 HR/PA, and .344 BABIP
To me these stats too look like normal varience and not evidence of any change in skill level. However, my eyes watching the game tell me another story. I see pitchers pounding the outside corner on Freddie with fastballs and Freddie only being able to at best take the balls and foul off the strikes but much too often taking strikes and swinging and missing at balls. My eyes tell me that Freddie has developed a hitch in his swing and is consistently late on these pitches. Freddie pulls back his hands before he strides forward and thus is late in planting his front foot and therefore late in beginning his swing. This seems to me to be correctable but for whatever reason it is not being corrected. I think Freddie is only going to get worse until he corrects this. What say the rest of the McCoven?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Honestly, they’re both about league average players. The problem people here have, and I am one of them, is how much hate Lewis receives compared to Bengie.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Really? I thought Freddie was one of the most liked position players. I don’t follow many gameday threads, but outside of his early season left field debacles and the B-Money paradox, he doesn’t appear to generate too much hate (probably 8th behind Velez, Aurilia, Wilson, Sanchez, Burriss, Ishi, and possibly Howry).
by SeeingStars on Jun 13, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
See jponry’s comment below. I didn’t put my thoughts together well, but that’s what I meant.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Just Who Is Freddie Recieving This Hate From?
I don’t hate Freddie and I sure haven’t heard alot of Freddie bashing in fact I have heard here more Bengie bashing the Freddie bashing.
Every non-McCoven Giants fan I talks to seems to think Fred is horrible. The K-Fred nickname is unfortunately gaining popularity. And there’s an increasing number of people on here hatin’ on him too. (I mean, the fact that that stupid nickname has been used, in all seriousness, at all on here is more than enough for me.)
I agree with marcello that they’re both probably about average players for their positions, but the fact is that (it seems like, anyway) the perception is that Bengie is great, our best hitter, etc and Fred is bad (mostly because of the Ks and defensive miscues.)
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Yup, I still am upset having heard Fred Clueless. At least it’s clever, I still hate it though.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Fred Clueless is better than K-Fred but I agree that I hate it. I don’t really like negative nicknames for a guy who, all in all, has been a good Giant so far. :\
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Seriously, and that is where the upsetedness comes from, at least for me. Lewis hasn’t been amazing, but he is what he is, and that’s a solid, cheap player.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Beyond that
Considering their salaries, Lewis > Molina.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
I don’t hate Freddy. I dislike him playing for us though. Nothing personal. If he actually used the .400 OBP percentage that you all note that he so gloriously had for like a month, stole some bases, and created runs, and held on to the ball more, then I would like him. But he doesn’t, he strikes out 25% percent of the time and can always be counted on for a K with RISP, doesn’t steal bases, and makes me cringe when the ball is hit anywhere near him. If the Giants really want to get back to being a WS contender, then LF is one of the main positions that we are going to require offensive production from, and KFred ain’t cutting it. And as far as I am concerned, the nickname stays until he stops looking at straight fastballs over the plate for called third strikes
As for GRM, all TV and Radio broadcasts (and apparently message boards) have “homers” and then the people that aren’t. Part of the beauty of baseball is that we can argue about it 365 days a year, so lets have it. Everyone is welcome, even if they ruffle feathers once in a while
If he actually used the .400 OBP percentage that you all note that he so gloriously had for like a month, stole some bases, and created runs
FRED LEWIS IS FIRST ON THE TEAM IN RUNS SCORED.
NO ONE ON THE GIANTS HAS SCORED MORE RUNS THAN FRED LEWIS.
OF EVERYONE ON THE GIANTS, FRED LEWIS HAS SCORED THE MOST RUNS.
WHY IS THIS HARD TO UNDERSTAND?
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
So what you’re saying is that Fred Lewis is not, in fact, driving in runs?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 14, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
runs only count
if you are keeping score
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
There's 3 ways to do something: the right way, the wrong way, and the Max Power/ Ginats Way...
by natteringnabob on Jun 14, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but the game isn’t about scoring more runs than your opponent, it’s about playing it the right way.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
And waiting to poop until it’s between innings.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 14, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions
If you’re a pitcher, yeah.
Ir you’re a batter, you rub it on your batting helmet.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 14, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions
SOME GUY NAMED NYJER MORGAN HAS SCORED AS MANY RUNS AS FRED LEWIS. So has Jerry Hairston Jr. Just because you can come up with one good stat for the guy doesn’t make up for his shortfalls. He has the most runs scored on a team with a horrible offense and his numbers continue to fall. Pull the wool out of your eyes and realize that he is never going to contribute on a contender
what that should tell you though
is that he’s NOT THE GODDAMN PROBLEM ON THIS OFFENSE. BECAUSE HE PLAYS FOR THIS OFFENSE. THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 POSITION PLAYERS GETTING REGULAR STARTS YOU SHOULD BE MORE UPSET ABOUT
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
Plus I can think of some pretty horrible players who’ve been contributors on pennant winners.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
The Reds have scored more runs than us. So have the Pirates. Hairston was also worth 2.6 wins last year in 80 games. Comparing Fred Lewis to a guy who put up a 5 win pace last year, and hits in a lineup with Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Encarnation and co. should tell you something: Fred Lewis is kind of ok at baseball. He’s league averagish.
Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.
Truthfully, Neighter of them is this bad
The problem is that Fred has seemingly lost his position to committee whereas Molina gets every PA available.
Frankly, they both either need to play through the slump or sit down for a week and figure shit out. The problem is that The fanbase in general seems to think that Bengie should be playing while Fred should not.
At least Fred walks through his slump…
by FairweatherFan on Jun 13, 2009 10:53 PM PDT reply actions
Secondary skills always rule
I think that was the start of the batting average/saber wars.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Earth To FairweatherFan
Bengie has broken out of his slump and I guess you somehow haven’t noticed.
by giantsrainman on Jun 13, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Shennanigans!
You are not from Earth
by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 13, 2009 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions
He has been hitting better lately but Fred had a hot streak like a week ago too. I sure hope Bengie’s broken out of his slump though.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Yeah, He Ran In To A Pitching Staff Or two That Thought Breaking Pitches Were The Way To Get Him Out.
They were wrong. Freddie has always raked breaking pitches thrown for strikes. What Freddie struggles with and more and more team are figuring this out is fastballs on the outside corner.
by giantsrainman on Jun 13, 2009 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not sure what your point is here. Fred’s hot streak doesn’t count for anything because it was just teams that didn’t know how to pitch him right? But Bengie’s does and is proof of him coming out of his slump because… idk?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
btw, I'm not saying Bengie isn't hitting better lately
because he is. But I’m just saying that things can change dramatically in a week. It’s amazing how much a 1-19 streak can screw you up (or a 5-55 or whatever it was for Bengie).
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
You Obviously Don't Get It
The scouting report on Freddy is not understood by all teams, therefore his hot streak doesn’t count.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Never Said It Didn't Count For Anything Just Said He Is Still In A Funk With Regards To Hard On The Outside Corner.
by giantsrainman on Jun 13, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions
And Bengie is still in a funk in regards to pitches that aren’t strikes.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
And He Always Has And Always Will Be.
That said, he is still a damm fine offensive catcher and in my judgement still at least league average on the other side of the ball too.
by giantsrainman on Jun 14, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not going to deny that Fred is probably a below-average offensive left-fielder. He is a good defensive left-fielder. On the other hand, when it comes to pitching to these two, you are talking out of both sides of your mouth.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Ishi had a .293/397/(ignores SLG) May before his untimely demise. Unfortunately the playing time of most of our young guys is very very crappy.
by SeeingStars on Jun 13, 2009 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Bengie is right at his career numbers, with a little more power and a little less AVG/OBP, which sounds like the template for an aging player. Typically IsoD goes up, since the loss in bat speed leads to more pitches taken, but a player with no discipline like Bengie probably wouldn’t get that boost.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Bengie has
seemingly hit homeruns through his slump.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 15, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
GRM, here is my problem
You pretty clearly have some knowledge of the game and the stats. However, I think you completely ignore the scientific process (yes, I realize scientific process is over the top, but the point stands). It seems you decide on a conclusion, and then you go hunting through the numbers to find proof of your point, ignoring anything that disproves it. In my mind, the point of using the stats is to challenge the things you believe in/were told. I don’t know how many times I’ve been wrong, it’s a larger number than I know exists, but to me that’s the best part. Every time I realize I was wrong, I feel like I learned something.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
by marcello on Jun 13, 2009 11:45 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Baseball Is A Game Played By People Not Machines
Sabermetrics does indeed have great value and adds great understanding to baseball for those that care enough to check it out. However, it has it limitations in that it fails to understand and properly account for human interaction. Many modern baseball fans have fallen victum to this mistake but I am not one of them. I belive they is still much value in “old school” thinking and that the best answer is most likely somewhere between the extremes of pure Sabermetrics and “old school” thinking.
I am always looking to challange my thinking and learn more but I am not one to change my opinion easily. I have to be convinced and majority view is hardly enough to convince me. I am also 54 years old and have a life full of experiences managing and being managed by others and I understand more then those much younger then me just how complex this can be and just how useless a “scientific process” is in these interactions.
by giantsrainman on Jun 14, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions
This is the wrong forum for you
Post on baggs or Henry Schulman’s blog. Your audience will be receptive to your way of thinking. You will find a better audience than trying to butt heads here.
Why? What I Want To Here Is Different Points Of View.
I feel no desire or need to have my opinions agreed with. When I do go to these sites I think you will find that I am viewed there as a true believer in Sabermetrics.
by giantsrainman on Jun 14, 2009 12:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Honestly, I don’t want GRM to leave. I disagree with him a lot, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. You get nowhere by only having people agree with you. I’ll try to respond to his comment tomorrow, when I’m a bit more coherent.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Surely you jest
GRM is almost always at odds with the rest of the McCoven; even if you agree with him he’ll probably still find a flaw in your logic. However, I’ve learned a hell of a lot from his ramblings and the online screaming matches that generally result. The McCoven needs the GRM as much as the GRM needs the McCoven.
Justin Miller: More ink'd than an octopus on PCP.
by stealth snail on Jun 14, 2009 2:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't "need" him
But I do find his contributions to our discussions here as overall beneficial.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
And it seems to me that Fred (so far) is not making as much good, hard contact with the balls he puts in play compared to last season. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but that’s just how it seems to me.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
I agree on his presence being beneficial. I cannot say that for his use of the subject line in his comments, though.
Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball
"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson
-1
Not cool. McC would not be the same without GRM. He’s like my father-in-law; you can go crazy trying to debate with him, but he’s lovable anyway.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
All that I'm trying to point out is
If he is looking for agreement on the “i see it with my own eyes, stats lies”, he’ll find plenty on Baggs Board and Henry Schuman’s blog, but he will find no such sympathy here.
I’m not saying PERISH FOREVER, PEASANTS, THOU SHALL NOT SPEAK AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF GOD.
Actually, the general premise of use stats + observation is best is one I agree with.
I would rather see a player and look at his numbers before forming an opinion on him. That’s why I never form too strong an opinion on who the Giants should draft; I trust their due diligence more than mine since I’ve done none.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
GRM knows this:
Never go full retard!!!
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
But this is why it is nearly impossible to have a discussion with you. You bring out all of these statistics, and then when people point out flaws in your reasoning, or even just a different way of looking at things, you retreat into the “numbers aren’t everything” chant.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
this this this
Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball
"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson
by haverecords on Jun 14, 2009 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions
is anybody else shocked to learn that giantsrainman is 54 years old?
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 14, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions
He’s mentioned his age before.
Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ
by Zetsuboushita on Jun 14, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know what the deal is with Freddie, but I do know that his current slump is well within the bounds of the usual statistical variance, so I wouldn’t overreact. Just tell him to forget about hitting for power and focus instead on getting on base, and bat him leadoff every game vs RHPs till the end of the year. I’d expect him to return to his usual .280/.360/.430.
Bengie, though … Bengie’s season is no fluke. He has been getting more and more extreme at the plate for years. Here are the percentage of nonstrikes he has swung at for the last five years:
28.3%
35.1%
33.9%
40.8%
50.1%
At this point, he’s the hackingest hacker in baseball. What has kept him in the league is that he has also become one of the most extreme flyball hitters in the game:
38.1%
37.9
43.9
46.9
56.4
It’s a pretty smart approach when you’re as slow as Bengie. Groundballs are pretty much useless to him, so he might as well put the ball in the air and hope it makes it over the fence.
But he has gone as far as he can go in that direction. His true OBP is probably around .280 these days. If you can’t run and can’t play much defense and hit into a ton of double plays even though you almost never hit the ball on the ground … well, you need to hit a whole bunch of clutch home runs to stay in the lineup with a .280 OBP.
I doubt
his OBP is going to be at .280 by the end of the season.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 15, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree with your conclusions, rainman. Currently, Bengie and Fred are at about where we should expect them to be, discounting minor natural fluctuations.
It does seem that Fred is struggling; as someone who has never been a Lewis supporter, I don’t find that particularly surprising. I hope Carney can get his swing straightened out, or his approach, but I tend to be pessimistic about it.
Bengie should end up with a typical SF year for him, but age is surely catching up with him. As Evan pointed out, hitting the ball in the air is the logical thing for him to be doing. I do not think we should resign him after this year, and if we could trade him for something valuable in July, I would endure 3 months of Steve Holm & Eli Whiteside.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
GRM
I also appreciate the fact that, despite others sometimes being rude to you, you never resort to rudeness in you replies. Sometimes I agree, and sometimes I disagree, but I always read your postings.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
Really? I think he is kind of rude sometimes – when he accuses those of disagreeing with him of merely being “blinded by anti-Sabean bias”, etc.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Yeah, I’ve seen a lot of that too.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
Well, I don’t find his occasional statement that some of us are “blinded by anti-Sabean bias” to be rude at all. And I type that as someone who wanted Sabean gone years ago. GRM’s use of that phrase reminds me to check my biases; I may still come to a different conclusion, but the self-check is worthwhile.
I thought jctGamer completely missed what GRM said at the start: he doesn’t believe “I see it with my own eyes; stats lie.” He said he believes in blending stats and visual observation. Either can be misleading. And he believes that in Fred’s case, the stats don’t tell the whole story. I’m not a rhetorician, but it seems to me that jct’s mischaracterization of GRM’s view is an ad hominem argument itself; rotorueter, would you agree?
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
The problem is that, in his case, “blending stats and visual observation” means using stats to support his arguments, but reserving the right to dismiss all stat-based counterarguments on the account that stats don’t tell the whole thing.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
I absolutely don’t mean to be argumentative, but I want to understand what you are saying. Are you saying that you believe that stats DO “tell the whole thing”?
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
I never said that. Stats do not tell the whole thing. But, two things:
- Remembering that stats aren’t everything is good. Bringing it up only when the stats contradict your argument is not. It basically allows you to only use/believe in stats that back up your prior assumptions, in which case you’re better off not using stats at all. That’s for politicians, not for people who are actually trying to learn something.
- “Stats do not tell the whole thing”, is, in itself, not really an argument. If there is something you think they might be missing, or if there’s a flaw you see in them, that’s one thing. But if you just reserve the right to dismiss any stats-based argument on the account that they don’t tell the whole thing, then there’s no point in arguing with you.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
That was true for a long time, but there’s been a ton of ad hominem in his replies lately.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
to be fair
you can only get stuff thrown in your face for so long before you start flinging stuff yourself
Does that mean it’s ok for me to throw feces back at the chimps at the zoo?
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Well, turnabout is fair play.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 14, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Why should the chimps at the zoo be spared from your frequent feces throwing fits of rage?
by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 14, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
I was about to post a comment about how I don’t understand the hate for Fred, but this was much easier.
"One percent of ballplayers are leaders of men. The other ninety-nine percent are followers of women."-John McGraw, NY Giants Baseball Club
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
are you suggesting that maybe Fred Lewis is not as good as Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier?
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 14, 2009 2:56 PM PDT reply actions
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