The Bengie Molina Paradox - or why the RBI totals don't matter
by Aadik on Jun 11, 2009 9:19 AM PDT
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There was an interesting discussion going on in this thread about the penalty of Bengie's base running, with the caveat offered by the original poster that he's still percieved Bengie as a good player and a good hitter. Suffice to say, I think this is broadly wrong, for a multitude of reasons, and I thought I'd bring it out here. Basically, much as we like Bengie, he's just not that great. In fact, I venture that Fred Lewis is a significantly more valuable player than Bengie Molina to the 2009 SF Giants, a fact that makes the Damon Bruce crowd go broke.
First, DINGERS.EXE aside, I present to you the basic line, per ESPN:
.256/.264/.436, for an OPS of .700.
Ponder that OBP for a second; Bengie has the 4th lowest OBP in baseball amongst qualifiers; 168th out of 172 hitters. No matter how much you slug, its very very hard to overcome that hurdle, a lesson most people understood 10 years ago. Bengie's Slugging percentage (at .436) is slightly above league average, but on an overall basis, the value doesn't add up. Don't believe me by slash alone? Take the advanced stat of your choice; looking purely at offensive contribution.
wRC (from Fangraphs) - in simple terms, how many runs have they created this year? In raw totals alone, Bengie Molina has been less impressive than many of our (sometimes deserved whipping boys) such as Lewis and Edgar.
the second stat (also not position adjusted) is wRAA, how has this person performed as compared to the average hitter in the league; therfore, you can see why Juan Uribe has only contributed about 14 wRC to the giants, he has been a slightly above average hitter when he has played; once again, the only Giants regular who's been significantly worse than Bengie Molina is Manny Burriss.
Player Position wRC wRAA
| Aaron Rowand | OF | 34.7 | 8.1 | |||||||||||
| Pablo Sandoval | 3B | 30.7 | 5.6 | |||||||||||
| Randy Winn | OF | 30.3 | 1.8 | |||||||||||
| Fred Lewis | OF | 24.5 | 0.3 | |||||||||||
| Edgar Renteria | SS | 19.2 | -6.0 | |||||||||||
| Bengie Molina | C | 18.9 | -7.0 | |||||||||||
| Emmanuel Burriss | 2B | 15.4 | -9.3 | |||||||||||
| Juan Uribe | 3B | 14.1 | 0.6 | |||||||||||
| Travis Ishikawa | 1B | 12.5 | -2.7 | |||||||||||
| Andres Torres | OF | 4.2 | 0.8 | |||||||||||
| Rich Aurilia | 1B | 3.8 | -5.8 | |||||||||||
| Nate Schierholtz | OF | 2.9 | -5.5 | |||||||||||
| Matt Cain | P | 1.8 | -1.5 |
Okay, you say - what about positional adjustment? Surely Bengie's C as a C, has a lower baseline than that of Fred playing LF? Well, to again use the simplist positional adjustment metric, lets use VORP from BP; essentially, the value over a replacement scrub at the given position, offensively. VORP isn't directly comparable with wRC above because the baseline assumption isn't 0, but its still fairly low. Again, we see the same point; while BP's pitcher values for VORP may be insanely low (in fact, I think they may be 0) in fact, Matt Cain has contributed more offensive value to the Giants than Bengie, and Bengie's offensive value is essentially equivalent to that of Osris Matos (1 AB, a triple, is essentially 1 run of value above replacement). If that doesn't sum up his value, I'm not sure what does.
| Aaron Rowand | SFN | cf | 16.6 | |||||||||||||||
| 2. | Pablo Sandoval | SFN | 3b | 14.2 | ||||||||||||||
| 3. | Randy Winn | SFN | rf | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||
| 4. | Juan Uribe | SFN | 3b | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||
| 5. | Fred Lewis | SFN | lf | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||
| 6. | Matt Cain | SFN | p | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||
| 7. | Edgar Renteria | SFN | ss | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||
| 8. | Andres Torres | SFN | lf | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||
| 9. | Jeremy Affeldt | SFN | p | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||
| 10. | Osiris Matos | SFN | p | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||
| 11. | Bengie Molina | SFN | c | 0.8 |
Now clearly, there are 2 aspects I haven't measured above - baserunning and defense. Baserunning can be crudely estimated with a basic run matrix; using BP's statistics, it shouldn't surprise anyone that Bengie is the worst baserunner in baseball; last year, he was agout a -7 run player vs the average and this year, he's a -3 run player; conversly,Fred Lewis is a +3 runner this year. Over this year, the baserunning value differential between Fred and Bengie alone should be worth at least a couple of wins (~20 runs), and maybe more.
So that leaves us with defense;with the full caveat that its probably way too early in the season to use UZR's or your defensive metric of choice, Fred Lewis has a UZR of 0.8; his UZR/150 is 4.2, suggesting that he's about 4 runs better defensively than your average LF (IT was 3.5 last year, so I'm willing to accept this is a reasonable sample). Now C defense is brutal to measure (and many defense metrics just throw up their hands and pass), but I think anyone would be hard pressed to argue Bengie is elite at this; ignoring poor metrics like his CS% (which is 19.2%, per THT), let us assume optismitically that Bengie is at least as good defensively as Fred; ie, so far this year, he's been a +1 defensive player so we can take that off the tabel.
Fred Lewis has created more runs than Bengie Molina (wRC); when he's played, he's been a more productive player than Bengie Molina (wRAA), and even adjusting for positional scarcity, he's been a better hitter (by VORP), although not my much. When we further take base running into account, Fred Lewis is a better player.
The broader point here though is not that about Lewis; this is very simplistic, quick and dirty summary with reasonable holes to pick (ie, Fred sitting against LHP improves his wRAA, for example), but mainly to raise this point - whatever metric you use, Bengie Molina is probably the 2nd worst regular on the Giants; Manny Burris is the only guy who has done less. Adjusting for positional scarcity (but not for defense) even Edgar Renteria (he of the immortal .259/.330/.333 line) has been a better or equivalent offensive player to Bengie.
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Steve Holm!
Pablo to Catcher when his arm gets better? :)
Pablo Sandoval
if a catcher, making his first all-star game in July?
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
There's 3 ways to do something: the right way, the wrong way, and the Max Power/ Ginats Way...
by natteringnabob on Jun 11, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
FRED LEWIS IS THE PROBLEM WITH THIS TEAM
Yeah, it’s glaringly obvious at this point that Molina just isn’t very good this year, but I bet he’ll be hitting cleanup until at least August. And Fred will continue to lose playing time.
Now, this would be a time that I’d absolutely LOVE to trade him. I think he would still have some decent value since NL Catchers have been so bad. But of course we’re “contending” so it’ll never happen.
Question: IF FRED IS SO GOOD WHY DOES HE ONLY HAVE 8 RBIZZZZ? OBVIOUSLY MOLINA IS CLUTCH (.202 AVG W/ RISP) AND FRED SUCKS.
Uh, I was going to go look at Fred’s splits w/ RISP on bb-ref but apparently the splits page thinks he’s only played 17 games this season.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
maybe he’s only had RISP in 17 games?
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
No, the splits page appears to be messed up for everyone right now. I’m sure they’ll fix it up.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I was wondering why Randy Johnson started 5 games this year
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Considering Bochy can barely give him a rest because he thinks it will hurt the Giants chances of winning
I don’t think there is a chance in Hades that Molina is getting traded. Ditto with being moved out of the cleanup spot. Apparently, GI-Ants Brass thinks that Molina is the best hitter on the team.
"Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense."
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's [no, make that Rowand's] contract.
Adoptive father of "Poncho" Villalona: This Angel don't fly. Nothing about him is light.
Christ almighty, and Bengie wants an extension
Ay dios mio
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
He's going to be a type A free agent
I see no reason for the Giants to sign him to an extension when they can simply offer him Arbitration.
Even if he's only a Type B
I’d still hope to get the picks and run.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
well
Posey won’t start next year, and I’d rather have Bengie than any other catcher on the roster for a year.
I’d rather put Pablo back there. I think Posey will be ready by June or July of ’10.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Posey is more of a September 10 guy
I don’t want the Giants to start his ML service / arbitration clock.
Here is a list of those who played the shortest amount of time in the minors:
Player Games
Matt Wieters (BAL) 169
Chris Iannetta (COL) 236
Ivan Rodriguez (HOU) 271
Chris Snyder (ARI) 281
Yadier Molina (StL) 297
Brian McCann (ATL) 304
Kurt Suzuki (OAK) 314
Nick Hundley (SDG) 316
Joe Mauer (MIN) 346
Wieter was rushed. He sould have done better as a September callup this year. Posey is no different. He needs to learn to call his own game, and then he needs to learn to hit with a wood bat.
Posey in 2011. until then, I want Pablo at 1B because his bat is so valuable and there is no reason to develop him at the catcher position.
Well
This is a good argument, though I don’t really think Wieters was rushed. He’s off to a slow start but he’ll start hitting soon.
We’ll see how Bengie looks at the end of the year. If he’s still at current levels (or even slightly better… or worse), I don’t think it would make sense to bring him back at the kind of money he’d be getting.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I agreed with you until you said you wanted Pablo at 1B. Why not at 3B? It appears he can handle the more-challenging defensive position, so why not 3B? Also, he’s too short for 1B!
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
BODY BIAS
Seriously though, I’m fine with eitehr first or 3rd. I just think the Giants long term has to be looking at Gillaspie / Frandsen / Crawford for 3B in 2010, and that leaves Sandoval at 1B. If he can stick at 3B and we get another hitter for 1B? great.
Time for Bowkermania?
Villalona is a much, much better prospect than any of those guys.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
No doubt
Villalona also ain’t going to be sniffing MLB for 3 years. At least. When Villalona comes up Pablo will be into his arbitration contract already.
I’m already thinking Crawford ends up at 3B, assuming his hitting maintains pace and assuming Chris Dominguez doesn’t just blow up this year and next.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
Crawford is a plus defensive SS, someone else will play 3rd.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Agreed, if Crawford’s contact issues don’t prevent him from playing in the majors, it’ll likely be because his SS glove kept him there.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
If we bring up Crawford..
We move Rent to 3rd
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
But what if he accepts and gets PAID? Yikes.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
One year of Bengie
is a good thing for the Giants (if he is not batting cleanup). Somebody has to hold this together.
sandoval will wear down as a catcher because he is simply too big. I want to save his knees at 1B or 3B.
Did you not read the OP? Bengie is NOT good for the Giants. He hurts them offensively and that is compounded by Bochy insisting he is a clean-up hitter.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 11, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
he is the cleanup hitter
he bats fourth in almost every game
therefore
Bengie Molina is the Ginats cleanup hitter.
Botchy knows all, that’s why his head is fat.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
There's 3 ways to do something: the right way, the wrong way, and the Max Power/ Ginats Way...
by natteringnabob on Jun 11, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Molina had a 29.3 RAR last year
and 19 RAR the year before that. I believe we are cherry picking the worst point in his season to make judgement.
All I’m saying is, one year of Bengie Molina is better than one year of Eli Whiteside or Steve Holm. Now if somebody wants to give me a first round pick and a sandwich pick? More power to them.
I’m trying to make the argument for offering him arbitration.
On the other hand, Bengie is 34 now and catchers have been known to fall off pretty quickly around this point. Especially if they’re overweight catchers with a lot of mileage.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
A valid point
Not dismissing that, I just think that should not discourage the team from offering him arbitration.
They have to offer him arb
It would be foolish not to, unless he COMPLETELY falls off a cliff before the end of the year. They could offer him arbitration, but let him know that there is the possibility that he could lose playing time to Posey once he’s ready. Odds are, some other team will offer him a starting gig anyway.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 11, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't disagree fyi
I think it may not be a bad gamble, as I could see other teams looking at this like Sabean, but I have to believe an OBP of .260 at year end would scare anyone with a brain off.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
sandoval will wear down as a catcher because he is simply too big. I want to save his knees at 1B or 3B.
I’ll never understand why people think Sandoval can’t catch. Because he’s big? So? He’s been a great catcher whenever he’s been allowed to play back there.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
I think the point is that smaller catchers hold up better — guys like Bengie Molina.
by Rick Parker (Lewis) Can't Lose on Jun 11, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
golf clap
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
There's 3 ways to do something: the right way, the wrong way, and the Max Power/ Ginats Way...
by natteringnabob on Jun 11, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
from Basball America
One of the other problems Sandoval’s size presents is the strain it puts on his body. Starting behind the plate for a full season takes a toll on any catchers’ knees, and Sandoval’s size means his knees might take more of a beating than usual.
“He could catch, but he’s not going to do miracles there,” said one scout. "He might develop into an average major league catcher, but my concern is how well he keeps himself in shape. He can play third base a little bit, but his range is going to be limited because he’s going to get bigger, and as his body matures, he’ll be a heavyset kind of guy.
“He’s a good offensive player, but if he plays first base, he could be a great offensive player,” the scout added. “If he goes to catch, that’s probably going to hurt his offense. He could pull it off, but I just have the feeling that it might hurt his chances on offense because it gets tiring squatting and getting up all the time; it’s a very demanding position. But the guy can definitely hit.”
So one scout thinks he might take more of a beating on his knees. I’m sold. From that same article:
Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen that Sandoval has ranked as one of the game’s best at erasing base stealers the last two seasons and only committed nine passed balls per 120 games in 2008. And that’s despite playing only one game at catcher between 2005-2006
Before 6-foot-4 Cal Ripken Jr., there were only a handful of shortstops in baseball history who were at least 6-foot-3. Since then, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez have come along.
Scouts say Sandoval has trouble physically crouching down low enough to get into proper catching position, and his size limits his agility. Yet so far he seems to have been able keep the ball in front of him. Was it the pitching staff in high Class A San Jose making him look good? Sandoval and Jackson Williams each caught around 50 games for San Jose, yet Williams committed 11 passed balls compared to Sandoval’s four.
All Sandoval has done is show that he can catch when given the chance. This is the “Lincecum needs to be a reliever because he’s too small and will break down” arguments all over again.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
I accept your argument
I think it can be argued both ways, and with Posey ready to go in 2011, I’m more inclined to not risk Sandoval catching and damaging his long term value.
I wanted him to be a catcher, but he looks okay at third, he probably even has the bat for first, and Posey is coming up fast. Pablo as a catcher is a thing of the past.
This is probably the reality of the situation.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
The fact that Sandoval would be the heaviest starting catcher in MLB history doesn’t mean that he absolutely couldn’t catch, but I think it’s a factor worthy of serious consideration
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 11, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I doubt he'd be the heaviest starting catcher in MLB history.
MLB player weight reports are about as reliable as North Korean ICBMs. They claim that Sandoval weighs the same as David Wells, for god’s sake.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I wonder
How we have manged to win as many games as we have in the last month with an automatic out in the middle of the order?
How much better off would we be w/ Pablo batting cleanup and Molina batting 8th?
Remember those Padre games…we’d have won two of them, at least.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 11, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Molina batting 8th could be perfect. Think of those “expand the zone” situations. He’s already there, no adjustment needed.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Yeah, but imagine those poor pitchers trying to bunt him over to 2nd. You’d have to drop an absolutely perfect bunt every time to avoid a double play.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, coming soon to a minor league near you.
by EliminateMe on Jun 11, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh lordy, I didn’t even think of that. I don’t know if he could be sacrificed to 2nd ever.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
If you timed a pitcher 1st to home vs Molina 2nd to home, I am not sure there would be much difference
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At least Bengie has that 6th tool, leadership, that guys like Beltran and Wright sorely lack.
Judgment Day is coming
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Leadership would have given Wright a double past Werth yesterday. Only because he lacked leadership was that an out.
Exactly
That is why the Giants are winning.
It isn’t about “numbers” or “production.” High OBP just clogs the bases.
It’s about that special ability to will your team to victory.
Who incidentally usually posts high OBP’s
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
This post would have looked pretty different a month ago
I agree in general that some people value Bengie too highly, but I think it’s also fair to say that until very recently he was in the middle of a horrible slump. Let’s check back at the end of the season and see where he ends up.
A month ago he was in the middle of a horrible slump too…
I’d tell you about it but bb-ref is all messed up right now :(
But his numbers in May were pretty horrible, as have been the numbers in June so far.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I would LOVE it if they traded Molina
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
sign me up. He may not be healthy that much longer either.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 11, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Which is right about league average for a catcher.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, coming soon to a minor league near you.
by EliminateMe on Jun 11, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I think one of the big reasons that Bengie doesn’t raise as much ire from the fans, is that it’s pretty clear at this point that he’ll be gone after this season, and we have a promising young replacement already lined up. That, and it’s not like there’s an extremely better option for cleanup hitter just sitting around on the bench somewhere.
The thing that does bug me about Molina is just how much he slows down the rest of the team on the basepaths. I’d like to see him bat lower in the lineup, perhaps 7th (I’d say 8th, but I fear he wouldn’t be able to advance safely on a bunt), and just put as much speed as possible all in a row in the middle of the lineup. It’s not like we’re the fastest team around, but with how crappy our offense has been, I’d like to see them run more and get aggressive on the bases to make something happen.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 11, 2009 10:03 AM PDT reply actions
Well, there is Pablo. I think the current lineup should be something like:
Rowand
Lewis
Winn
Sandoval
Uribe
Molina
Renteria
Frandsen
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I’d like to give that a try for a while. I might swap Winn and Rowand, but it does look better than what we’ve been going with.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 11, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I know lineup order doesn’t really mean anything in terms of how well a player hits, but the Rowand thing is going so well I don’t want to screw it up.
I still can’t believe that since Barry retired, Bengie hasn’t started a single game batting anywhere other than cleanup.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I don’t think so. When Sandoval is batting cleanup, it’s a day off for Molina.
Judgment Day is coming
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Holy crap, is that true? You’d think they would have tried someone else at cleanup in at least one game, sometime, somewhere…
As for Rowand leadoff, I agree that I wouldn’t want to screw with it right now… I would just like to see some of those doubles he’s been hitting lately come with a runner or two on base. Oh well.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 11, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I looked at his splits the other day and was shocked. Every single GS came batting 4th the past two years.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
…and that sums up my case for the firing of Bruce Bochy.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 11, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Seriously
That just boggles my mind. Especially this year, where Pablo looks like a decent option for that spot (not great, but better than Bengie for sure).
by The Double Deuce on Jun 11, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
LURN TEH MATHZ!!!
Seriously, I think Bochy only looks at the number of homers. Nevermind the fact that Molina is literally swinging for the fences every single at-bat, which is not really the greatest strategy, cleanup spot be damned.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
I honestly believe Bochy doesn't understand
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
I'll tell you why he doesn't draw the ire...
AND why he bats cleanup. Ready for the biggest surprise of your life?
He’s the team leader in both DINGERZ and RBIZZZ.
Most people will look at those two stats and think, “Hey, he’s not much, but he’s the closest looking thing we have to a cleanup hitter on this team.” That’s it. The OP did a fantastic job of showing why he’s really not that valuable, but the majority of fans aren’t that into non-HR/RBI stats. Bochy should be, but… Apparently he’s not.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
This just in
Bat anyone else in the lineup in that spot, and they would probably lead the team in RBI.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 11, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
This is actually
very true.
A lot of the hits he gets are yoked, and worthy of doubles and clearing the basepaths, but he’s not fast enough to stretch it into doubles.
So his slugging percentage is kept down.
If he were faster, not only would the Giants score more runs, but his batting average would be way higher, as would his slugging percentage.
Strictly concerning his bat, he’s the best hitter on the team hands down.
But all offensive aspects considered, yeh, he’s not as valuable as the other players.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 11, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think he's the best hitter on the team
Bat only or otherwise. I consider Rowand, Sandoval, and likely Lewis to all be better hitters than Molina.
Probably Winn too.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 11, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Probably Nate too
But hell if we’ll ever know for sure
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Ladies and Gentlemen
A Nate Schierholtz Sighting
CF Rowand
RF Schierholtz
3B Uribe
1B Sandoval
LF Lewis
SS Frandsen
C Whiteside
2B Burriss
P Sanchez
Per bags
Shiny cleanup hitter is shiny
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
So Bochy thinks that Uribe is a better hitter than Sandoval? Huh.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Giants lineups are not like regular teams’ lineups.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 11, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I like that you posted this after they played the game.
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If Molina had the speed of Jeff Kent
His BA would likely be close to .280 (with his current struggles), and his slugging percentage would be pushing .500.
Last season his BA would have been well over .300.
This would help with his OPS as well, likely pushing it around .800 or higher the past 3 seasons.
But it’s been his speed alone that has hurt these numbers.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 11, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Also...
Let’s face it.
We put Molina’s bat on Fred Lewis’ body, and we have a really good hitter.
Even with the lack of patience at the plate, it would be one of those Pablo Sandoval things… “It’s just who he is.” And we’d love him all the same.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 11, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
wrong
Pablo has, yes, more of an idea at the plate than 1-walk all season Bengie.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
2 walks!
Get it right or pay the price!
by The Double Deuce on Jun 11, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Okay...
Then we’d hate our guy who has an .800 OPS, .300 BA and .550 SLG and leads our team in HR.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 11, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
those numbers don’t quite add up right.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
They do if his OBP is lower than his average, which seems pretty likely to me!
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
And if I looked like Leonardo DiCaprio, I’d be dating supermodels.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
That begs the question
Jessica Alba, would you?
If it means Herpes? (and knowing that you got it 2nd hand from Jeter)
all those singles Molina hits that are really doubles still drive in more runs than your average single. His numbers don’t get credit for this (except for RBI totals).
Exactly.
Which is why I believe his bat alone is the best on the team, but his total offensive value is not as good as the others.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 11, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions
by definition
because he’s so bloody hard to drive in; he never has to drive himself in
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
There's 3 ways to do something: the right way, the wrong way, and the Max Power/ Ginats Way...
by natteringnabob on Jun 11, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
A point that I wish many others would get
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
np
Pet peeve of mine; I like Bengie, I think he’s a good guy, but compared to the hate that a Fred Lewis gets, I think he’s remarkably overrated.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
Really, Aadik?
I don’t perceive much hate for Fred Lewis here. In fact, I see irrational love for the guy (sorry, Jenny). It seems pretty clear that the NL pitchers have made the last adjustment to Lewis, and he has yet to make the adjustment to that adjustment. One could easily argue that sending him to AAA wouldn’t allow him to make that adjustment against ML pitchers. On the other hand, Mr. Bowker deserves his shot in the bigs and Fred is weighing us down. It is a decision the FO has apparently already made, although I would disagree.
In full disclosure, I’ve never been convinced of Lewis’ baseball ability. How many “late-bloomers” actually turn out to have decent ML careers? And should we assume that last year was the baseline and that this year is the aberration, or vice versa? Color me skeptical.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
what Cookyman said
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
+ Mayor
Although I would say that I am not terribly optimistic about Mr. Bowker.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Jun 13, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I would like to point out again that just a week ago he was at .790, he still leads the team in runs scored and he’s in a one for seventeen skid… I just don’t think it’s anywhere near time to give up on him. And the fact that both him and Schierholtz are out of options makes it more difficult to just call up Bowker… I mean, I sure hope that people aren’t so down on Lewis that they want to just get rid of him altogether.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
If this is true
Why aren’t people constantly complaining about Bengie taking time away from Eli Whiteside and Steve Holm?
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 11, 2009 11:14 AM PDT reply actions
Steve Holm isn't so bad... ML Career .333 wOBA
as opposed to Molinia’s current .296 and career .311
by FairweatherFan on Jun 11, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Pretty limited sample size, though.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 11, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but so is the sample in which Molina has been putrid.
Plus, Holm hit that home run once…
by FairweatherFan on Jun 11, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
But surely they could be better
than second worst on the team.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 11, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Probably not. Actually, I would mind Holm getting more PT than he’s gotten (all of 7 ABs this year?)
I would bet that a big part of why Bengie is struggling is that he plays every freakin’ game.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
*wouldn't mind
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Yeah, I wanted Steve Holm to get more starts when he was up with the ML team. I kept forgetting that he was on the team. I guess Bochy did too.
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
Also
I know what you’re getting at and
1) Bengie has a much better major league track record than Burriss (who doesn’t even have a good minor league track record)
2) Holm and Whiteside are both career journeyman minor leaguers. Whiteside has a career minor league OPS of .681 and Holm .716.
It’s not the same situation as Burriss vs Frandsen at all.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Indeed this is true
I however wouldn’t mind seeing Holm called up and given a bit more playing time. Maybe Molina is just worn out?
Ideally I would like to see Pablo playing C and TI back at 1b while Uribe stays hot.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 11, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
i like this idea
but what about the ELBOW!!!!!!?
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
in all seriousness
Bengie gotta go.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I hope they’re shopping him around, but I doubt it.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
FWIW
Molina is exhibiting even less plate discipline than Pablo this year – swinging at 49% of pitches out of the zone.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 11, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions
The Giants won't trade him because you don't trade your cleanup hitter
but I think the Mets, Phillies, Red Sox and Yankees all would have interest. Plus, he wouldn’t be hitting cleanup on any of those teams, so his suckitude would hurt less.
Of course, the team could take a chance that he doesn’t accept arbitration, but with his body and injury history and age, having him stay healthy isn’t guaranteed. Sell high (or as high as possible)
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 11, 2009 11:36 AM PDT reply actions
The average fan doesn't understand the difference
Btw, this morning Damon Bruce stepped in for Radnich and actually talked about trading Zack Wheeler or Jonathan Sanchez for a bat.
I nearly fell out of my car. I mean, how does someone in his position not know a player cannot be traded until 1 year after he signs? And the PTBNL rule only extends out 90 days?
If he is that ignorant, how do you expect the majority of the fans to react if we trade Bengie?
Damon Bruce proves his baseball ignorance pretty much every time I listen to him. It’s remarkable.
Same with Ralph. At least Tolbert realizes he doesn’t know a lot about baseball and keeps his mouth shut for the most part. Ralph and Damon, not so much.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 11, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
wow, that is awesome. Damon Bruce with more unintentional comedy
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 11, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
You don’t even need all those obscure rules to expose that level of stupidity — how can you trade someone who’s not yet a part of your organization?
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
tell that to Nate McClouth
"I would've been here sooner but I had to shake the Veleasels"
by The Gene Hackman on Jun 11, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
also take note of this
Entering Wednesday, here is where every major league team ranks in walks out of the No.4 spot:
Washington 46
Milwaukee 45
Tampa Bay 43
Chicago Sox 41
Boston 37
NY Yankees 37
NY Mets 37
Chicago Cubs 35
Cleveland 34
San Diego 32
LA Dodgers 31
Texas 29
Pittsburgh 29
Colorado 28
LA Angels 27
Minnesota 27
Arizona 27
Oakland 25
Baltimore 24
Detroit 24
Kansas City 24
Atlanta 24
Philadelphia 24
Cincinnati 23
St. Louis 23
Toronto 22
Houston 20
Florida 19
Seattle 14
SAN FRANCISCO 3
per Baggs.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 11, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions
And I think 2 of those are non-Bengie
He still has just one, right?
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
my bad
only 33% are non-Bengie (he has 2 walks, I have been told).
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
Unlike all those times when
He’s totaled his double!
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
Nice post....
As an aside note, RARP > VORP
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
It's almost worthy of being framed.
It’s the new “Baxter eats a whole wheel of cheese and poops in the fridge”
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
That is unbelievable.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
only because he learned how to win
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
BABIP.
I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..
He’s 20 points under his career average, it’s really not that much of a difference.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Lewis’ BABIP is like .355, and while this is somewhat in line with his career numbers, I doubt he has the same abnormal BABIP-defying skills that Ichiro has.. I’d expect it to be slightly lower since Lewis doesn’t have the advantage of being able to run toward 1B while swinging (I wish I could compare Home-1B times, but I don’t have them on me)
I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..
Great post. My only complain is that it contains too much irrefutable logic.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
In my mind FYI
The fact that Matt Cain’s offensive value exceeds that of Bengie is what really makes the deal, IMO. If we must play Bengie, it seems to me that he ought to be dropped to 8th in the order; he does have the 2nd highest ISO on our team and if he’s not going to show plate discipline anyway, might as well have the pitcher bat after him.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
I have nothing to back this up
but his defense sucks too. Our pitchers suck at holding runners on but Molinas arm is terrible. Even when the pitchers give him time, he air mails the throw or bounces it in front of the second basemen.
He did a better job at blocking balls this year but he’s been terrible overall, since joining the team. It would infuriate me seeing, what were really PB, turned in to WP by the official scorer because Bengie didn’t know how to block a damn ball.
Yeah, the defense is not so good. He definitely struggles with FBs up.
To be fair, the Giants pitching staff do a mediocre job of holding runners. The pitchers seemed to have gotten better recently, but still make it difficult for any catcher to throw out base runners.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Wronghanded Affeldt pitches right
by Giant among Angels on Jun 11, 2009 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Why You Are Wrong And Freddie (Not Bengie) Has Been The Worse Of These Two Thus Far
I did a little research and here is what I have found. Fred Lewis thus far has had 41 ABs or SFs with 47 runners in scoring position and he has only driven in 4 of them. This is less then 10% and could be historicly bad. This is what the Giants are so concerned about with regards to Mr Lewis.
Here are the numbers for the Giants with at least 20 ABs+SFs with runners in scoring position. Please note that RISP is number of runners on 2B or 3B in ABs+SFs while RBI is the number of these runners and just these runners (not runners on 1B or the batter) driven in. Also note that I combined the two backup outflelders (Schierholtz and Torres) to provide a comparision to what I see as the likely replacement for Mr Lewis’ suckitude.
Player————————RISP——-RBI———-%
Molina————————-84———-24———-28
Sandoval———————68———-17———-25
Rowand———————-61———-19———-31
Renteria———————-58———-18———-31
Winn—————————54———-21———-39
Burriss————————56———-12———-21
Lewis————————-47————4————9
Ishikawa———————-39———-12———-31
Uribe—————————39———-10———-26
Aurilia————————-38———-10———-26
Schierholtz/Torres———21————6———-29
By the way, ignoring this is why wOBA, wRC, and wRAA and flawed stats.
This whole in Fredie’s game is far larger then the OBP whole in Bengie’s game.
yes it's true
I have a theory that Fred Lewis is the victim of a gypsy curse that prevents him from getting hits with runners on base. The curse can only be used by eating Rich Aurillia’s heart. Raw. In front of 30,000 baseball fans.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
ugh used = cured
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
It's also quite possible
that he’s pressing in those situations.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 13, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Right
I’m just saying that it’s possible that he’s pressing in those situations this season.
I think he’s definitely skilled enough, and has the track record to eventually even out the flukiness of his lack of RBI.
But it’s just his fielding and hitting this season has been clumsy, as if he were incredibly nervous while performing.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 13, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s a fluke of small sample size FFS. 47 AB? COME ON.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
This is not to say ...
that Fred isn’t slumping. BUT THE RBI TOTALS ARE NOT THE PROBLEM. It’s the fact that his K-rate has increased and his power has mostly disappeared. The RBI thing follows from that, but Fred wasn’t having any problems back when he was hitting .300 with a .400+ OBP and his RBI totals were still poor.
And I still think it’s ridiculous that every single person who lambastes him for his poor RBI totals just sort of pretends he doesn’t lead the team in runs scored. Why are runs scored ignored while RBI are held up as super important? I will never know.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Here You Are Talking About Cause But I (and I think this thread) Am Talking About Results
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 2:04 AM PDT up reply actions
And clearly, runs aren't results?
Seriously?
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
The Discussion Is About Thus Far This Season
I am using all the data available. I acknowledged Freddie’s advantage in OBP thus far but in my judgement Bengie’s advantage with RISP thus far has (as I showed) been greater.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Bengie, for all of his “advantage” is still only hitting ~.200 with RISP.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
No, He Has A 19% Advantage In Driving In Runners In Scoring Position Which Is In Fact A Hugh Advantage!
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Grant?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Jorgan?
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Giantsboard Blog Because everyone needs a blog
Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!
ftw
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
There's 3 ways to do something: the right way, the wrong way, and the Max Power/ Ginats Way...
by natteringnabob on Jun 12, 2009 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions
wOBA, wRC, and wRAA are so flawed that those are EXACTLY WHAT YOU USED IN YOUR PRESEASON PREDICTIONS.
Wow, golf clap for GRM.
Also, those stats aren’t meant to measure context-specific contributions.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
There Is Zero Context In wOBA, wRC, and wRAA
I never said these stats are useless. What I said is that they are flawed and their lack of contest is why.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 1:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Context. Freddy Lewis > Bengie Molina.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Bah Gawd
Has Bengie been that bad? D:
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I guess what we've been saying all along is true
It’s near impossible to be a productive hitter when you OBP less than .300. As you’ve been saying, apparently on deaf ears (or I guess blind eyes), for some reason people who love RBI give no respect to runs.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Just saying “sub-.300 OBP” is being kind of nice… .267? Really? is that even legal?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Hey, ESPN has Bengie listed at 225
;)
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
This Is A Much More Valid Arguement
That said, to my way of thinking WPA makes a mistake in treating every team’s run environment as the same. In the Giants low run environment I think it hurts alot more to only cash in on 9% of these opportunities as Fred does compared to Bengie’s 28% then it does to has an OBP 10% lower as Bengie does compared to Fred.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
What?
You’re coming off as only caring what a player does in “RBI situations”. Bengie’s WPA is so low is because he’s been pretty horrible in almost EVERY situation after his hot start. Plus, I would bet you Fred’s “RBI%” will increase once he starts getting more opportunities in those situations.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
No, Bengie's WPA Is So Low Almost Exclusively Because Of His Low OBP.
Even using WPA Freddie does not have much of an advantage over Bengie as Lewis is at -.20 compared to Molina at -.56. I believe this would be reveresed if WPA adjusted for the Giants low run environment.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Again, your so blindedd by your rage that yuo can't see the FACTS that are in front of your eyes.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
WPA Is Also Position Nutural So If You Adjusted For Lewis In LF vs Molina At C
The advantage swings to Molina big time.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Didn't Say It Should Be.
Just noted that it wasn’t and therefore not very good at comparing the overall value of players that play different positions.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions
What if he doesn't improve much
if given the opportunity?
Still a coinkadink?
There’s absolutely no way that these stats could mean any flaw about Fred Lewis as a player?
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jun 13, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I never said that you said these stats are useless
What I’m saying is this: you CANNOT “blame” those stats for not being context-specific when THAT’S NOT THE POINT OF THOSE STATISTICS.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
I Didn't Blame The Stats. I Blamed The Autor Of This Fanpost For Using Them To Make A Point That Requires Context.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
By the way, ignoring this is why wOBA, wRC, and wRAA and [are?] flawed stats.
Umm, let’s let others be the judge of what you mean by this.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Once Again You Are Missing The Context.
They are flawed in the contest of this Fanpost as a valid way to measure the contributions of Bengie vs Freddie thus far in 2009.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Once Again
You try to tack something on after you say something.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Just so I understand, you think that hitting in an RBI situation is a skill? So, if we took Bengie and Fred and batted them 1,000 times with a player in scoring positions, Bengie would always be “%19 better” because of what both players have done in a tiny split this season?
I think he’s arguing that, purely based on results, Bengie has been better than Fred because of his better rate of driving runners in. I think. Which, I don’t think anyone disagrees that he’s done a better job of driving runners in. But I think rainman is essentially saying that Bengie has been a better overall player because of it. I dunno.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
GRM’s stats confuse me. I took it as a ‘true talent’ type of thing. That Molina will always hit better with RISP because of this wacky RBI% stat that he created from this season.
That's pretty bad
I think Mr. James just screamed.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
He shivered
And then said, “Something terrible has just happened.”
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
I Do Believe There Is Skill Involved But This Is Not What I Am Saying
What I am saying is that Freddie’s failures in these situations thus far this season have hurt the Giants more then Bengie’s failures to get on base. This is all I am saying.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Molina – 83 PA’s with RISP sOPS+ 76
Lewis – 51 PA’s with RISP sOPS+ 66
So, putting aside if hitting with RISP is a skill or not (it’s not), Molina has only been 10% better than Lewis as compared to the league average hitter with RISP. I really doubt that 10% is enough to offset nearly 80 points of OBP — ie: not making outs.
sOPS+ Is Not The Right Mesurement For Sucess In This Environment.
In Bengie’s 83 PAs minus his 3 BB/HBP in this environment he had 84 runners in scoring position and he drove in 24 of them for a 28% sucess rate. In Freddie’s 51 PAs minus his 10 BB/HBP in this envoronment he had 47 runners in scoring position and he only drove in 4 of them for (again an almost historically bad) 9% sucess rate.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Because it doesn’t prove his point.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
But how do your stats “prove” this? All they do is show that he’s been worse at driving in runs. They don’t prove the other stats wrong in any way.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I Haven't Claimed Proof.
What I have claimed is that in my judgement Freddie’s failures in RISP situations (just 9% sucess rate) is worse then Bengie’s failure to get on base (just .267 OBP).
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
But you haven’t given us a compelling reason why we should agree with you.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
THATS BECUAASE YOUR BLINDED BY YOUR RAGE AND CAN'T SEE THE FACTS
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
All That Means Is That You Disagree With Me.
I am fine with that. We don’t have to agree. I am satisfied with laying out my reasons for my position and leaving it at that even if you still disagree.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
This Is Not A Matter Of Fact But Rather A Matter Of Opinion.
I am very comfortable in my opinion and don’t care who agrees or disagrees with me.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
When you are the only who think your opinion is correct
it is no longer a valid opinion.
In a theory of science you can’t prove a null hypothesis (e.g., clutch hitting doesn’t exist). I understand that there is much noise in statistics, but the burden of proof is on those who believe in clutch skill.
Here is the trap you are falling into
http://statspeak.net/2009/04/why-you-think-clutch-hitting-exists.html
People strive to reduce anxiety and uncertainty breeds anxiety. It’s one of those iron-clad rules of psychology. And people are willing to do all sorts of things to reduce anxiety. (Consider how many people smoke! It’s not a secret that smoking is a really bad idea.) And believing in clutch hitting makes people believe that there is less uncertainty than there really is. All it costs is the willingness to fall for a couple of logical errors and psychological traps
I also suggest you read this excellent paper by Jim Albert of Bowling Green University.
http://bayes.bgsu.edu/papers/situation_paper3.pdf
And this quote from Bill James
"No one doubts that over the course of a season, clutch performance exists. When the scoresheets are available, and the issue can be studied for a year, we will most certainly find that some players have had an impact beyond what their numbers would suggest. What is subject to question is that this represents an ability. If there is such as thing as "clutch ability," then exactly what is it? We know what its signs would be, but what is it? How is it that a player who possesses the reflexes and the batting stroke and the knowledge and the experience to be a .260 hitter in other circumstances magically becomes a .300 hitter when the game is on the line? How does that happen? What is the process? What are the effects? Until we can answer those questions, I see little point in talking about clutch ability."
Actually Fangraphs Agrees With Me
Even with Fangraphs using wRAA to measure offensive contribution then conclude that Bengie is more valuable the Freddie.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
FanGraphs doesn't agree
Huh? wRAA is here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Giants&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=1&season=2009&month=0
And Molina’s wRAA is -5.5 runs to Fred’s -0.9 runs.
Not Sure Why The Value Section Is Slightly Different
It has Bengie at -5.7 and Freddie at -1.1 but it is using wRAA. The difference however remains the same.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
The link you linked to was the batting runs component of Fangraphs Win Values. It’s similar to wRAA (batting runs above average) but it’s park adjusted while wRAA is not park adjusted. That’s the difference.
In any case, both the batting runs component and wRAA state that Lewis has been the better hitter.
This I Already acknowledged In A Context Nutural Environment.
Here I am discussing the overall value of Bengie vs Freddie. Elsewhere I was taking the position that when the context I provided (RISP) is in taken into account I believe Bengie’s better sucess rate has been more valuable to the Giants the Freddie’s better sucess rate at getting on base.
These are two seperate and different arguements.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks.
I had not realized that Fangraphs used park adjusted wRAA as the offensive run value in their value section. I had indeed assumed that this was just straight wRAA.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions
It's only so because
Catcher doesn’t have a fielding UZR score in fangraphs, and they are assigning “position scarcity” to Bengie’s score, thereby making him artificially more valuable than Fred Lewis.
BTW, are you retreating to using stats now, or are we still having the “batting with runners in scoring position is a skill” debate? cause I have more links I want to dump on you if we are still doing that one, such as The Baseball Economist, pages 154-155, by JC Bradbury.
Btw I do feel sorry for you
I feel like you are that guy ambushed in the middle of the ring in WWF by 8 ppl, just tag teaming and pounding you into submission.
sorry =/
.6 to .4 is, for all intents and purposes, equal.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
how dare you use the right phrase and not “intensive purposes”.
Are you sure you are allowed on the internet?
I thought about using “intensive purposes” ironically, but was worried people would fall into the sarchasm.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
The sarchasm reversal!
Very sneaky
by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 12, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
For Projecting The Future Perhaps, But
for measuring the past no way.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
If I could choose one person to live a day as, it would be you.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
The awesome thing about this post is that I wasn’t sure till the very end whether it was GRM or Outside the Box Thinking.
“This whole in Fredie’s game” gave it away, though.
GRM
You are, again, wrong.
It has been shown, over and over, that a players offensive performance w/ RISP does not deviate meaningfully from his performance w.o RSIP.
Any evidence of that in 47 AB’s this season is 100% attributed to the small sample size.
Full stop.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 12, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions
You Are Not Accounting For The Possibility Of Gypsy Curse
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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I Am Only Talking About Results!!!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
*sob
can we trade GRM and Wilriv to KNBR or something?
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
Only if we get back Tom Tolbert and he proceeds not to talk about baseball
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Molina > Pie
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Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!
Not true. Many papers have been written to prove the elusive Theorem of Molina and the Pie. The result: “When Bengie Molina is in the room, there is no pie. We were sad to discover this.”
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Just To Provide Some More Context
This shows that when one adjusts for defensive position even using wRAA to measure offense Bengie has been a more valuable player then Freddie thus far in 2009.
Yeah, but that’s only because Molina is a catcher and he’s getting a big bump in value because of that. I thought your argument was that based on hitting ability, Molina has been better. Molina has been worth -5.7 batting runs this season vs. Fred’s -1.1 batting runs.
they're using a default 20 run positional adjustment between the two (+12.5 for C, -7.5 for LF)
You’re switching points again here. Are you conceding that offensively Fred has been better, or are you going to go back to your “RBI RULZ” tactic ?
Also, there’s no baserunning adjustment in here; Bengie Molina is fairly unquestionably the worst baserunner in baseball, while Fred is above average at least.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
I Am Not At All Conceding The Offense
I am adressing the relative value of the two to each other in a larger context. This is a seperate and different point. I still stand by my first point and firmly believe that Bengie’s advantage thus far with RISP has been more valuable to the Giants on a purely offensive basis the Freddie’s OBP advatange.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Do you believe in Santa Claus?
and the tooth faerie?
They have something in common with clutch hitting with RISP.
Once Again You Make An Arguement Valid Perhaps For Predicting The Future But
meaningless for measuring what has actually happened.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
What are you talking about?
How is clutch hitting with RISP = myth have anything to do with predicting the future vs measuring the past?
Fact - Freddie Has Driven In Just 4 Of 47 Runners In Scoring Position For A 9% Sucess Rate
Fact – Bengie Has Driven In 24 of 84 Runners In Scoring Position For A 28% Sucess Rate
In my opinion this difference matters in evaluating the past even if I were to accept an arguement that it does not matter for predicting the future.
by giantsrainman on Jun 12, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I refuse to believe you are this dense
So I will give you the benefit of the doubt here and say Small Sample Size.
Fact — Matt Cain has Driven in 4 of 16 runners in scoring position for a 25% Success Rate.
That does NOT mean he is more Clutch than Fred Lewis, it only means small sample size prevailed.
If you do not get this, that means you do not understand the first things about statistical analysis and there is no reason for us to continue having this discussion.
Your The One Being Dense. It Doesn't Mean He Has Been More Clutch
But it does mean he has been more sucessful and thus more valuable thus far. This isn’t an attempt to use a small sample size to predict future performance it is measuring actual performance thus far and when doing this sample size just does not matter.
by giantsrainman on Jun 13, 2009 1:54 AM PDT up reply actions
No, You are Wrong.
Just because Molina has more RBIs, does not mean he has created more runs for this team.
In fact, the model in this page exactly illustrated the reason why Fred has contributed to more runs the Giants have scored than Bengie Molina has.
There i no such thing as clutch. I can roll a 20 side dice and come up with 20 × 3 , I am not skilled at rolling dice.
I was simply LUCKY. Bengie molina has simply been LUCKIER THAN FRED.
You want to attribute this luck somehow as SKILL, and you are absolutely wrong.
There i no such thing as clutch. I can roll a 20 side dice and come up with 20 × 3 , I am not skilled at rolling dice.
If I were your DM, I’d make you roll a different die next time
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
There's 3 ways to do something: the right way, the wrong way, and the Max Power/ Ginats Way...
by natteringnabob on Jun 13, 2009 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m going to spend the next week relating everything to D&D.
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
I think people are misinterpreting GRM’s argument. I don’t believe he’s making a case for whose the better player going forward rather whose the better player thus far… small sample size is irrelevant. Now Fred does do a lot of little things that lead to runs (OBP/Base Stealing/1st to 3rd), but I’m assuming GRM is from the standpoint that a run isn’t a run until someone actually drives them in.
by SeeingStars on Jun 13, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
so technically both schools of thought are right.
by SeeingStars on Jun 13, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Bengie Molina has driver in more runs than Fred Lewis in RBI situations is an observation. There is nothing wrong with making an observation.
Bengie Molina is better than Fred Lewis in these situations because he is a better clutch player is a hypothesis. That hypothesis is WRONG, because there is no such thing as Clutch.
So no, both schools of thought are not correct.
I think this might illustrate GRM’s position.
Say you are trying to decide who the MVP should be.
Pablo Sandoval’s line: .300/.400/.500 with 150 RBIs and 100 Runs
Buster Posey’s line: .300/400/.500 with 165 RBIs and 100 Runs.
GRM is saying, I think, that Posey should get the award because his actions DID result in more runs scored—-even though creating RBIs are not an individual skill. The RBI’s in this situation are a product of luck, but they still DID happen.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
No, read his original post
“why you are wrong”
“This whole in Fredie’s game is far larger then the OBP whole in Bengie’s game.”
Let’s for a moment, assume he means “hole”. He is attributing the lack of RBI as a lack of competency in Fred Lewis game.
The observation is being used to support a faulty hypothesis, that somehow, Fred Lewis lacks “clutch” in his game in driving in runs with RISP. This assertion is WRONG and no amount of defense will change that, no matter how you read it.
His post is erroneous, and absolutely wrong.
I’m not as knowledgeable on stats as most on McC, but I don’t think hitting with runners on is all luck based. This is strictly opinion, but I look at hitting with runners on similarly to hitting with 2 strikes. In these situations, several things can occur that will change the dynamic of an at-bat. With runners on. you’re more likely to see pitches from the set/pitcher’s possible reluctance to throw balls in the dirt/different defensive positions. In a 2 strike count, most hitters will cut down their swing.
That said, I do think that RBI is a product of both hitter and runner so I don’t think Fred’s overall bat is the necessarily the problem.
http://bayes.bgsu.edu/papers/situation_paper3.pdf
We fit a random effects model to explain the pattern in the transition values for all players. This model said that players have different abilities and a particular outs/bases situation has the same additive effect to each player’s batting ability. The model appeared to be a good fit to the 1987 National League hitting data. In summary, it is likely that the reported Alomar batting average in the clutch situation for a given season does not reflect any meaningful ability of Alomar to perform better in clutch relative to non-clutch situations. Clutch hitting effects, if they exist, are likely small in magnitude and detectable using player data from many seasons.
Page 11
I only skimmed through it briefly, but was (alpha (a))i in the random effects model the only variable for a players hitting ability (or ability)?
I’m probably misreading but then I don’t necessarily think that’s a random effect. I.E. an approach by a player like Burriss should adversely affect his (M)ij because he has so much trouble getting balls out of the infield so he’s less likely to yield situations like page 6.
Just speculative on my part, but I’m curious on your take since you have a better understanding of your article.
You Are Still Being Dense
Your are reading of my original post is wrong and your have failed to understand this inspite of my pointing this out to you multiple times and now SeeingStars and rotorueter pointing it out as well. The “hole” in Freddie’s game (just driving in 4 of 47 runners in scoring position) like the "hole in Bengie’s game (an OBP of just .267) is a “hole” in the results they have contributed to the Giants thus far. In no way am I saying that either of these should be used to draw conclusions on the true skill level of either player or predict their future performance. What I am saying is that in my judgement Freddie’s failure has hurt the Giants more then Bengie’s failure thus far in 2009.
by giantsrainman on Jun 13, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
GRM
IF that is your point – I still think you are wrong.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 13, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I Have Acknowledged There Is A Valid Arguement For The Opposite Point Of View
JectGamer nor the original poster of this Fanpost have provided these arguements but I have no problem with you or the others that have. That said, I find these arguements unconvincing and I stand by my point of view and the arguements to support it that I have made.
by giantsrainman on Jun 13, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
No, You are still wrong.
Freddie’s “failure” is circumstantial.
Essentially, what youa re saying is “Freddie’s back luck has hurt the Giants more than Molina’s lack of baseball skill”
Just read that sentence again. How ridiculous is that?
What A Totally One Sided View You Have.
Freddie’s 4 of 47 runners in scoring positon is just bad luck because it is below his career norm but Bengie’s .267 OBP is a lack of baseball skill even though it too is below his career norm?
You try reading what you wrote again and I think you just might find that you are the one making rediculous statements.
by giantsrainman on Jun 13, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
No, you refuse to see the flaws in your argument
On Base Percentage is a skill. Driving Runners in is Not.
Your entire argument is that wRC and wOBA is not a true measure of player’s worth, because it doesn’t take into account of “hitting in the clutch”,
To extrapolate what you said, bengie can go 10 for 10000000000000, as long as those 10 comes with runners in scoring position and drive in 30 runs while Fred Lewis can go 80 for 100, as long as he is 0/20 with runners in scoring position, he is not worth as much as Bengie Molina’s.
THAT is your argument, and it is absolutely wrong.
Your Stawmen Of My Arguements Are Wrong
and you are no longer worth my time to debate this with.
by giantsrainman on Jun 13, 2009 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions
It never was worth the time to debate
because you were wrong on the getgo. I just wanted to see how you want to retreat in your argument. I had hope you would continue to reply and eventually, I was going to ask you to define exactly how much is hitting with RISP worth in runs created in your opinion, how you would weight it, and let’s take Lewis and Molina as an example. Knowing what you know today in the disparaties of the RBI between the two :
— What OBP or SLG does Lewis need to pose in order to be worth more than Molina’s “success” in runs driven in? Knowing he only has a 9% rate while Molina has 28%, what OBP difference between the two would be worth that 19%?
— If your response is : Null, then my argument above holds. If no OBP or SLG is worth it, then technically I can extrapolate to infinity right?
— If there is a number in mind, please let me know and share that with me. I’m interested in knowing just how much clutch is worth relative to other matricies in baseball, and once I have that number, I would like to plug it into the rest of the Giants lineup and see what they are worth relative to Molina.
Please, enlighten me. Otherwise, My extrapolation to infinity is the only choice that I can go by.
That does not include
1. Bengie’s defense
2. Baserunning
Though Aadik touches on these things in his/her post
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
“Never wrestle with a pig – you both get dirty, but the pig likes it.”
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
just want to point out
where Lewis has batted in the lineup a great deal this year – behind benjie, who is damn near impossible to drive in when he’s stumbling and bumbling around the bases . . .
however, even though you can’t prove clutch hitting exists with stats, doesn’t mean it isn’t a real phenomenon. if you’ve ever played baseball you know that certain people rise to the occassion when the going gets tough and certain people fall apart . . .
but if we’re talking about overall value . . . benjie has way more “wholes” in his game
1) he’s the slowest player in baseball and that essentially makes hitters 5-7 null and void in terms of driving in runs.
2) his defense isn’t that great
3) low on base, terrible plate discipline
the Giants’ lack of run production stems not from lewis, or benjie, or benjie and lewis, but the offense as a whole. if we can get something promising for benjie i’m willing to take that in a trade, and if we find someone better than lewis, then by all means put that guy out there. the giants are going to need upgrades up and down the lineup with exception to maybe sandoval, who is the only true impact position player we have
1) he’s the slowest player in baseball and that essentially makes hitters 5-7 null and void in terms of driving in runs.
Wrong, that would imply bengie actually gets on base
by FairweatherFan on Jun 15, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
1) he’s the slowest player in baseball and that essentially makes hitters 5-7 null and void in terms of driving in runs.
this is just insane.
I mean, I have been in the “trade bengie” camp ever since we got him (when I was in the “don’t sign bengie”. But he still scores from third on a single, and always on a HR. Not his fault the Giants don’t have anyone that can hit.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
however, even though you can’t prove clutch hitting exists with stats, doesn’t mean it isn’t a real phenomenon.
Why? It isn’t an off-field power, clutch hitting is something that would occur entirely between the lines, and be recorded in the statstical record. It shouldn’t be that difficult to find.
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I have nothin to say, jus feelin a bit left out lol
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by i love sports101 on Jun 20, 2009 11:16 AM PDT reply actions
Bengie more impatient than my pitbull
In my opinion MOlina could be a very good hitter, he has the raw ability to hit a well thrown baseball, but his plate discipline is so poor, and his misguided belief that he could hit anything thrown, on top of the fact that he knows if he takes a walk he would just clog up the bases. However, if he were more selective at the plate, he could 1. get better pitches to swing at, that might be in a zone where he could get more hits on balls he hits into play. higher BABIP. Being he does not K much and does get his bat on the ball, it would behoove him to try to swing at good pitches. His BABIP on ball he hits that were in the strike zone is much higher than his BABIP out of the strike zone. To me Bengie is a 300 hitter, whose stupidity makes him closer to a 250 hitter. Maybe he is just embarrassed to take too many walks, because of his snail like mobility, but it is just as embarrasing to hit a ball off the outfield wall and get a single.
I suspect that Bengie, like 99.9% of people in the world and a fair percentage of people in major-league baseball, simply lacks the god-given ability to recognize and react to the movement of baseball thrown at a high velocity. I doubt very much that there is a mental reason for his hackitude any more than there was a mental reason for the hackitude of the many, many hacktastic players to go before him.
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