Part 5/5 of our evaluation of the Giants starting pitching is a look at the big unit which I am sure will make you SWELL with anticipation. Johnson has proved something of a disappointment 1/3 of the way through this season. After all, at the time of his signing, many of us hoped for a repeat of his successful 2008 campaign in which he posted a 3.76 FIP. His FIP this season is a full run worse than last year (4.68). That said, little evidence exists that he has lost the ability to be an above average starter as he has maintained a great K rate (9.35/G) and experienced almost no change in his velocity.
How have Johnson's individual pitches changed since 2002? Read on to find out.
Pitch Type |
2002% |
2003% |
2004% |
2005% |
2006% |
2007% |
2008% |
2009% |
Fastball |
54.9 |
55.3 |
45.3 |
56.0 |
56.4 |
51.5 |
51.4 |
48.7 |
Splitfinger |
1.6 |
1.3 |
4.5 |
2.2 |
6.7 |
11.7 |
13.4 |
10.6 |
Slider |
41.9 |
37.9 |
43.6 |
37.9 |
35.5 |
36.8 |
35.2 |
40.6 |
Changeup |
1.6 |
5.5 |
6.7 |
3.9 |
1.4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Pitch Type |
2002 Value |
2003 Value |
2004 Value |
2005 Value |
2006 Value |
2007 Value |
2008 Value |
2009 Value |
Fastball |
.15 |
-1.19 |
.65 |
-.49 |
-.38 |
-.81 |
-.09 |
-.38 |
Spitfinger |
-.59 |
1.13 |
.16 |
-4.32 |
-.19 |
1.60 |
.23 |
-2.42 |
Slider |
2.84 |
.78 |
2.27 |
1.92 |
1.32 |
3.12 |
.51 |
.51 |
Changeup |
-2.24 |
3.09 |
2.47 |
3.80 |
3.25 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
Year |
Fastball Velocity |
2002 |
94.5 |
2003 |
94.3 |
2004 |
93.7 |
2005 |
92.7 |
2006 |
92.2 |
2007 |
92.3 |
2008 |
90.8 |
2009 |
90.7 |
Observations.
1. Johnson is the only Giants pitcher that, at least from a historical perspective, I would have loved to see data extending back beyond 2002. Johnson clearly was a very different pitcher in his earlier years and this data set fails to capture his prime. Since 2002, Johnson's major change has been a not unexpected drop in velocity. From a terrifying 94.5 MPH in 2002, he has since declined to a much more human 90.7 in 2009.
2. Much like Jonathan Sanchez, Randy Johnson personifies the benefits of being a left-hander who can break 90. Similar to Sanchez, Johnson relies on a fewer number of pitch types than his right-handed brethren requires. He, in fact, only throws 2 1/2 pitches (his third pitch, the split finger, is really just a variation on a fastball).
3. The value of Johnson's fastball really surprised me. For the past 5 seasons, his fastball has actually been a slightly below average pitch. Now some of this can be attributed to his decline in velocity; however, even in 2002 (94.5 MPH) this pitch was shockingly mediocre.
4. Once again the data, at least ostensibly, supports subjective evaluation. As a spectator, I have noticed hitters absolutely crushing hanging "fastballs" left up in the zone by Johnson. I suspect these pitches are splitters that fail to sink.
Well, I hope you enjoyed our tour of linear weight pitch values made possible by fangraphs. It was a blast to write and, for me at least, quite enlightening.