Randy Johnson Pitch Value

by kenshin1 on Jun 1, 2009 6:14 PM PDT Comment 12 comments

Part 5/5 of our evaluation of the Giants starting pitching is a look at the big unit which I am sure will make you SWELL with anticipation. Johnson has proved something of a disappointment 1/3 of the way through this season. After all, at the time of his signing, many of us hoped for a repeat of his successful 2008 campaign in which he posted a 3.76 FIP. His FIP this season is a full run worse than last year (4.68). That said, little evidence exists that he has lost the ability to be an above average starter as he has maintained a great K rate (9.35/G) and experienced almost no change in his velocity.

How have Johnson's individual pitches changed since 2002? Read on to find out.

Pitch Type	2002%	2003%	2004%	2005%	2006%	2007%	2008%	2009%
Fastball	54.9	55.3	45.3	56.0	56.4	51.5	51.4	48.7
Splitfinger	1.6	1.3	4.5	2.2	6.7	11.7	13.4	10.6
Slider	41.9	37.9	43.6	37.9	35.5	36.8	35.2	40.6
Changeup	1.6	5.5	6.7	3.9	1.4	0	0	0

Pitch Type	2002 Value	2003 Value	2004 Value	2005 Value	2006 Value	2007 Value	2008 Value	2009 Value
Fastball	.15	-1.19	.65	-.49	-.38	-.81	-.09	-.38
Spitfinger	-.59	1.13	.16	-4.32	-.19	1.60	.23	-2.42
Slider	2.84	.78	2.27	1.92	1.32	3.12	.51	.51
Changeup	-2.24	3.09	2.47	3.80	3.25	NA	NA	NA

Year	Fastball Velocity
2002	94.5
2003	94.3
2004	93.7
2005	92.7
2006	92.2
2007	92.3
2008	90.8
2009	90.7

Observations.

1. Johnson is the only Giants pitcher that, at least from a historical perspective, I would have loved to see data extending back beyond 2002. Johnson clearly was a very different pitcher in his earlier years and this data set fails to capture his prime. Since 2002, Johnson's major change has been a not unexpected drop in velocity. From a terrifying 94.5 MPH in 2002, he has since declined to a much more human 90.7 in 2009.

2. Much like Jonathan Sanchez, Randy Johnson personifies the benefits of being a left-hander who can break 90. Similar to Sanchez, Johnson relies on a fewer number of pitch types than his right-handed brethren requires. He, in fact, only throws 2 1/2 pitches (his third pitch, the split finger, is really just a variation on a fastball).

3. The value of Johnson's fastball really surprised me. For the past 5 seasons, his fastball has actually been a slightly below average pitch. Now some of this can be attributed to his decline in velocity; however, even in 2002 (94.5 MPH) this pitch was shockingly mediocre.

4. Once again the data, at least ostensibly, supports subjective evaluation. As a spectator, I have noticed hitters absolutely crushing hanging "fastballs" left up in the zone by Johnson. I suspect these pitches are splitters that fail to sink.

Well, I hope you enjoyed our tour of linear weight pitch values made possible by fangraphs. It was a blast to write and, for me at least, quite enlightening.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Comments

Not to jinx it..

But how many other teams have only ran out 5 starters?

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by Azmanz on Jun 1, 2009 6:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA I CAN"T HEAR YOU LA LA LA LA LA OUR PITCHERS WILL NEVER GET INJURED

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by TexasRanger on Jun 1, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, I can think of a team that ran out thirteen different starters and still won 100 games.

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by antinous on Jun 1, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I had no idea he threw his FB so infrequently. At least that seems like a pretty low ratio for a power-pitcher.

by SeeingStars on Jun 1, 2009 7:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Watching him pitch this year I’ve seen the slider a lot it seems.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jun 1, 2009 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He throws his slider way more than any other NL pitcher. 40% of the time, according to Fangraphs.

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by MonkeyChow on Jun 1, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well some days he can’t throw a strike with his fastball so he’s forced to throw the slider.

Brandon Crawford: Your 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
Wilriv21: "Your" as in your SF Giants.

by Azmanz on Jun 1, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yet, he has been throwing the slider around 40% of the time since 2002. He’s thrown some fastball strikes in those years.

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Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.

by kennv on Jun 2, 2009 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Kenshin

Cool stuff.
I wanted to add something, you might find interesting.
I noticed a release point difference a few starts ago between the slider and fastball. Looking at pitchfx “release point” data (50 feet from plate), you find about a 7 inch difference between the slider and fastball. Going back through 2008, you see this difference was there pretty consistently, but was wasn’t consistent was the release point. He had a higher arm slot for the Mets start than he had shown the last couple month of last year.
I tried to correlate a bunch of variables (you can click link for detail), but the bottom line was the only correlation with game score I could find was vertical release point. I got a correlation coefficient of -0.37.

I am theorizing that the higher overall arm slot, might make the difference more noticeable than a lower arm slot. For arguments sake consider this…..If the fastball is thrown virtually sidearm, and the slider is thrown 7 inches lower, the shoulders and head can be square. If the fastball is thrown 7 inches above sidearm, his shoulders and head start to tilt, which is much easier to see than an arm slot.
Since that Mets pounding, he has lowered his arm slot down and done pretty well comparatively.
I don’t know if any of this is real or my imagination, I submit for thought

1 on left) Last Start vs Braves: Fastball and then Slider
2 on right ) Start vs Mets (where he got pounded): Fastball and then Slider

More detail/ data/ photo’s here

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by merkin on Jun 2, 2009 11:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

certainly interesting...

but release point has been looked at before and, essentially, concluded that it’s almost impossible to generate sound conclusions from it. Is it possible that a higher vertical release point accentuates the difference between his fastball/slider? Sure, in fact, it may even be plausible. However, correlation is not causation and your sample is pretty tiny.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Jun 2, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, thanks for the feedback

I am not convinced by the data either.
I did take as much as pitchfx could give, which was about 38 starts worth of data. For the sake of ruling out bias, I took the pitch types as pitchfx identified them, which is certainly flawed.
All that being said, we can do an “anecdotal field test” with our eyes, trying to judge a fastball v slider in real time. I have tried this sporadically the last two starts without much success, only to find that his release point data had dropped back down from early season.

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Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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by merkin on Jun 2, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it is more than just simply release point. In the right picture his whole upper torso is at more of a tilt whereas he is more upright in the other pitch (still right side pic). That’s a pretty big tell for MLB hitters that are able to pick up on these small differences. Yes, small sample but interesting nonetheless. I am sure Randy is aware of this, as it seems he is a video guy (I believe, from what I’ve read).

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by Giant among Angels on Jun 2, 2009 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs