minor lines, 5/29/09
by steve S on May 29, 2009 10:47 PM PDT
in They Might Be Giants
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PrintLots of highlights tonight. The Giants top prospect (a) Madison Bumgarner won another start, although not as impressively as his past two starts. Each of the other three affiliates all received an impressive start, with (b) Pat Misch having five shutout innings, (c) Scott Barnes being rather unhittable, and (d) Eric Surkamp pitching into the 8th inning. Four Giants farmhands had a homer and a double among three hits: (e) Angel Villalona, (f) Nick Noonan, (g) Jesus Guzman, and (h) Mike McBryde. Finally, (i) Wendell Fairley and (j) Bobby Felmy both reached base four times.
AAA: Fresno defeated Portland 5-0
Fresno: 1B Jesus Guzman: 3 for 4, HR, 2B
Fresno: 3B Ryan Rohlinger: 1 for 3, HR, BB
Fresno: LHP Pat Misch: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K--1 HB
Fresno: RHP Ronnie Ray: 1.0 IP, 1 K
Fresno: RHP Osiris Matos: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K
Back in the minors, Guzman had a big game. With three of the Grizzlies' eight hits, including his 7th HR and 13th double, he improved his AVG to .373. Rohlinger added his 5th HR.
Making his first start of the year after fifteen relief apperances, including four in the majors, Misch was very efficient, throwing just 58 pitches (43 strikes) in five innings and facing just three batters over the minimum. He improved his PCL ERA to an even 2.00. With a perfect 6th inning, Ray improved his ERA to 2.66. Matos issued just his fourth walk of the season.
AA: Connecticut defeated Portland 10-3
Connecticut: SS Brandon Crawford: 0 for 5, 4 SO
Connecticut: LF Bobby Felmy: 2 for 3, 2 BB, CS
Connecticut: CF Mike McBryde: 3 for 5, HR, 2B
Portland: 1B Lars Anderson: 0 for 5, 3 SO, E
Connecticut: LHP Madison Bumgarner: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Connecticut: RHP Brooks McNiven: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 K--2 HB
Connecticut: RHP Waldis Joaquin: 1.0 IP, 2 K
Portland: RHP T.J. Large: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K
McBryde had his best game of the season. After just 2 XBH in his first 23 games this year, he his 1st HR and 2nd double of the season. In 33 AB since joining the Defenders, he now has a .303/.395/.424 line. Felmy reached base four times, but his OBP is still just .310. Crawford had his second sombrero against the Seas Dogs in the past week. He now has more strikeouts than hits since his promotion to the upper minors (21 H and 22 SO in 74 AB, .284 AVG). It was his second straight 0-for-5 game. The Red Sox' Anderson, whom a scout told BP's Kevin Goldstein earlier this week might be the most overrated prospect in baseball, suffered the oh-fer with the hat trick. He also has more strikeouts than hits (37 H and 41 SO in 159 AB, .233 AVG).
Bumgarner now has a 4-0 W-L record after four starts in the upper minors. Not so much tonight, but he has been hard to hit with 15 H and 24 K in 23.0 IP since joining the Defenders. McNiven made his first relief appearance after seven starts to begin the season. Joaquin had his second straight appearance with 2 K and no baserunners. T.J. Large, whom the Giants drafted in 2001 but did not sign, allowed three baserunners but is otherwise having a fine season with a 0.78 ERA through his first 23.0 IP over 20 appearances.
A+: San Jose defeated Visalia 10-2
(adding five insurance runs in the last two innings)
San Jose: SS Brian Bocock: 0 for 6, SO
San Jose: C Buster Posey: 0 for 5
San Jose: 1B Angel Villalona: 3 for 5, HR, 2B
San Jose: LF Thomas Neal: 3 for 5
San Jose: 2B Nick Noonan: 3 for 5, HR, 2B
San Jose: LHP Scott Barnes: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K--1 WP
San Jose: LHP Wilmin Rodriguez: 1.2 IP, 1 K--1 WP
Villalona and Noonan, who was dropped to the seventh spot in the batting order, had the big nights, each with a homer and a double among their three hits. Villalona had his 7th HR and 8th double; Noonan had his 3rd HR and 7th double. The three hits raised Villalona's AVG back above .300. Neal also had three hits, as the bottom five hitters in the San Jose lineup went a combined 13 for 25. Batting leadoff and cleanup, Bocock and Posey went a combined 0 for 11. Bocock's AVG dropped to .211, but Posey's AVG remains above .300.
Barnes had perhaps his most effective start of the year. At least he had a season-high 6 K and a season-low 2 H as he got his ERA back under 4.00. He pitched six full innings for just the second time this year in nine starts. Rodriguez had 1.2 perfect IP to lower his own ERA to 3.43, but he did allow one of three inherited runners to score on his wild pitch.
A-: Augusta defeated Lexington 8-5
Augusta: CF Dom Duggan: 1 for 3, 2B, BB, SF, SO, E
Augusta: 3B Charlie Culberson: 1 for 5, 2 SO, E
Augusta: PH-1B Josh Mazzola: 1 for 2, 3B
Augusta: DH Andy D'Alessio: 0 for 5, 2 SO
Augusta: RF James Simmons: 2 for 5, 2B
Augusta: LF Wendell Fairley: 2 for 3, 2 BB, SO
Augusta: SS Ehire Adrianza: 1 for 4, BB, SO, E
Augusta: LHP Eric Surkamp: 7.0+ IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K--1 HB
Augusta: RHP Shane Kaufmann: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 BB
Augusta: LHP Dan Runzler: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 3 K--1 HB, 1 WP
A few more lines than normal since I was at the game. Fairley smashed a couple hard-hit, line drive singles in his first two at bats, then drew a couple walks before striking out looking. He looked good, although his AVG remains below .250 in May. Simmons, the other GreenJacket with two hits, had perhaps his most impressive play defensively, chasing down a hard hit, deep fly ball in the right center field gap. This was the first time I had seen Adrianza, and he did nothing to impress me in this game. The error, his 12th error this year, was a throw into right-center field when trying to start a double play. Culberson's error, his 17th error, was charging a ground ball near the third base bag and then letting it go under his glove as he ran over the bag. The was the first time I had seen Culberson in person too, and he seemed bigger than I had imagined. He's listed at 185 lbs. Pinch hitting in the 6th inning, Mazzola provided the big offensive blow with a bases-loaded triple. I don't know if it was intentional or not, but Duggan faced a couple pitches that were way inside. His 3rd double was one of four XBH for the GreenJackets.
Surkamp pitched very effectively, better than his final line score would indicate. watching him warm up before the game, I thought he was struggling to locate his pitches. In the 1st inning, he allowed a couple singles, with a hit batter in between, to score a run with one out. After that, he settled in, retiring nineteen of the next 20 batters, allowing only a two-out double in the 5th inning before a two-out walk in the 7th inning. In the 8th inning, he was no longer able to locate his pitches and gave up three singles to the three batters he faced in the frame. Kaufman then entered and got a GiDP from the first batter he faced. He should then have gotten out of the inning, but the next batter reached on Culberson's error. After two more batters reached, Runzler was brought in. Another run scored on Runzler's wild pitch, before he struck out the final batter of the inning. In the 9th inning, Runzler put two runners on base to bring the tying run to the plate, but he struck out the final batter of the game to record his 9th save. Surkamp has the tall frame (6'4") that makes him look like a power pitcher, but his fastball topped out 85 mph from what I saw on the stadium scoreboard. In his final inning, it was closer to 82 mph. Based on previous experience and other information, I would surmise that the scoreboard gun was about 2-3 mph slow. The opposing starting pitcher hit 90 mph at least once on the scoreboard gun. Surkamp got a lot of swinging strikes in breaking pitches in the dirt that required the catcher to throw to first base for the out. On the season, Surkamp now has a very impressive K/BB ratio over 6.00 with 57 K and 9 BB in 44.2 IP. Kaufman showed a bit better fastball velocity, hitting around 88 mph on the stadium scoreboard. In the 8th inning, Runzler had his fastball around 87 mph but ramped it up to 92 mph, sitting more at 91 mph, in the 9th inning. If this turns out to be Runzler's final appearance in May, he had an impressive month with 2 H, 6 BB, 0 R, and 24 K in 12.1 IP over nine appearances.
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praise Him
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Wronghanded Affeldt pitches right
by Giant among Angels on May 29, 2009 10:50 PM PDT reply actions
Can we start worrying about Crawford's K's now?
Noonan. Nooooonan!
by Giant Fan in Singapore on May 29, 2009 10:56 PM PDT reply actions
Eh
I would but we knew he had that problem to begin with….
Honestly I would probably be pretty happy to get a plus defender at SS with 15-20 HR power, even if he K’d 165 times a year and only hit like .250. Which is odd because I absolutely can’t stand Khalil Greene and that sounds like a similar player, but me thinks Crawford projects to be a lot better on the defensive side than Greene.
Crawford’s K rate is absolutely terrible tight now. Way worse than anything Greene ever put up.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
Yeah, but he’s been very aggressively promoted. He’s less than a year out of college ball. Give him some time to settle in and adjust.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
OK, but that doesn’t mean that it’s not to be worried about. He was striking out in 27% of his PA’s in A+, now he’s striking out in 28% of his PA’s in AA. He needs to fix that.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
He can strike out a lot – he just can’t strike out at such high rates that he won’t be able to hit MLB pitching (28% is too high).
Still, tedfordfan is right, give the guy some time. He’s not ready yet, and the fact that he’s held his own while being pushed aggressively is a good sign. Give him time – the guy isn’t going to be ready this year.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on May 30, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey, even Chipper Jones stikes out 4 times in a game....
So Crawford is as good a Jones, right? Right.
I don’t think he really held his own. He’s hitting .284/.329/.378 with a BABIP of .392, BB/K of 4/22. That BABIP is the only thing that’s kept him from hitting .240. He did do well in San Jose, but his BABIP was crazy, and again, way too many strikeouts.
It’s not that it’s impossible to be a productive hitter while posting a high K/PA. There are some sluggers who do it – like Howard or Dunn, and, more importantly, also guys who don’t have that much power, but manage to remain pretty good hitters – like Fred Lewis, or the Upton brothers. But even those guys never approached a K/PA of 27% while in the minors – Justin Upton’s highest was 19%, Lewis’s was 22%, and B.J. hit 23.5% once – as a 19 y-o spending most of the year in AAA.
Also very important is that the players who post high K rates but remain productive all do it by taking a lot of walks. Lewis, the Uptons, Dunn, Howard, Pena, Swisher etc. are all very patient hitters. Crawford’s BB% between San Jose and Norwich is 7.1% – bellow average, especially for a minor leaguer. He’s pretty young, but not that young – almost all patient hitters put up good BB numbers by the time they’re 21.
The power he showed in San Jose was a pleasant surprise, but right now Crawford has a huge flaw in his game. He has to fix it if he ever wants to be a major leaguer.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
the sample size we are drawing conclusions from is too small
if his k rate at a level can go up 5 percent in one day, I think we should wait a little longer before we get over critical. still, considering his BABIP in San Jose, I wish they would have kept him there with Buster until we were absolutely sure he had the level figured out.
I didn’t say he’s never going to be good, just that he hasn’t been doing well so far. K rates normalize pretty quickly, too, so while we don’t know that his K rate will stay that high, we can pretty confidently say that Crawford isn’t good at making contact. We should wait until the end of the season before we draw conclusions, but it’s definitely something to worry about.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
Sure. I’m not surprised he has flaws. But that doesn’t change the fact the he has them. And I still think that promoting him was a mistake.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
Re: Crawford
Was surprised he began the season at Adv A ball. His play at San Jose was a very pleasant surprise. Thought the organization promoted the kid too rapidly (just over 120 ABs in minors). Especially with a high K rate.
The jump for Adv A to AA is regarded as the toughest of promotions. And then going from the hitter friendly Cal League to the pitcher friendly Eastern League adds another layer of difficulty. The organization needs to be patient with some of its promotions.
Spikes in power and k-rate
You’re pointing to “a huge flaw in his game” but are only presenting a flaw in his broad-based k-rate numbers; which as was pointed out, is a small sample size. Total number of strikeouts is not the end-all of surmising quality at bats. Notice when his k-rate spikes, so does his slugging percentage? That suggests he is getting production from a more aggressive swing. Also, eight of his 22 strikeouts in AA have come in two games, in which Connecticut won both by a combined score of 22-4.
You’re pointing to "a huge flaw in his game" but are only presenting a flaw in his broad-based k-rate numbers…Total number of strikeouts is not the end-all of surmising quality at bats.
No, but it is the end-all surmising of a player’s ability, or lack of ability, to not strikeout, which is the flaw I was talking about.
Notice when his k-rate spikes, so does his slugging percentage?
No. And this is his first year, so I don’t even know what that means (how could his K-rate spike if it’s his first year?).
Also, eight of his 22 strikeouts in AA have come in two games, in which Connecticut won both by a combined score of 22-4.
So?
I agree that it’s a small sample size in general, but K rates normalize way quicker than pretty much any other stat. 200 PA’s is decent sample size for that purpose.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
a & b
a – It means that his power at bats, meaning his doubles and homeruns, come during the stretches where he’s striking out most. With many high k-rates this isn’t an issue, because most players prone to striking out for (let’s say) 150+ times in a season will strike out on a fairly daily basis. This is not the case with Crawford. He strikes out in bunches within one game, but also goes strectches of two or three games where he doesn’t strike out at all.
b – So, that’s very important. It means many of his strikeouts are occuring in non-clutch situations. If he’s batting in a 7-0 ballgame, he’s swinging for the fences. If he’s batting in a one-run ballgame, he’s not.
Crawford has kiind of got two swings going right now. Nothing wrong with that, and if he’s got the ability to utilize a certain approach in a given situation, that can be a very effective skill. The point of playing in the minors is to refine skills. This is why a hitter like Crawford, two months into the season, is on pace to strike out 150 times; because he’s refining skills, and changing levels. He will likely normalize at a more digestable overall k-total by the time the season is over.
So, the 200 PA’s I cited are too small a sample size, which is why we should break them up into ridiculously tiny micro-samples. That makes sense.
(Did you really just use two games to “prove” that Crawford is clutch?)
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
Dude, I’m all filled up on dealing with people who talk down to others. “That makes sense.” I know what I’m talking about man. Take that however you want. I’m trying to assess the overall player. If you want to point to one statistical category and make a judgement based on that, that’s your business. Peace.
OK, I didn’t mean to talk to down to you. I just didn’t like the inconsistency in claiming that my sample size was too small, but then using much smaller ones to argue your point. It made it seem like you’re more interested in presenting the data in a way that makes Crawford look better, than in trying to actually learn something from it. There’s too much of that going on, both here and in general. That’s what I’m filled up on. But I realize that’s not what you were doing, so I’m sorry. My point was that right now, we’re dealing with incomplete data. 200 PA’s aren’t really sufficient sample size for evaluating a player, but that’s what we got. So we should focus on stats that are less sample-size-dependent, and we really shouldn’t break up the sample into smaller samples.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
Apology accepted. And the problem you’re encountering of those who using numbers in a house-of-cards fashion will always be a part of baseball. Numbers are quite useful when used properly. Small sample sizes are unreliable if all you go by is the numbers, but the more of an eye-witness account one has of a player, the more helpful a micro-sample becomes … if used properly. If you were to tell me Crawford is going to have a hole is his game because he keep chasing the same pitches, or he can’t make certain adjustments on various styles of pitching, then 30 K’s through 100 AB’s is very significant. If all you go by is the numbers though, then even 130 K’s in 400 AB’s doesn’t tell me very much.
There are three kinds of hitters when it comes to gap guys with power. There is Jeff Clement, who when he goes through strikeout bunches, he loses power production. That isn’t Crawford. Then there is Adrian Gonzalez, who strikes out a lot when he’s going good and when he’s slumping. That also isn’t Crawford.
Then there is Eric Chavez, who has the rare type of power that Crawford generates. Chavez strikes out a lot when his powew spikes. When he isn’t hitting homeruns, he strikes out less. The thing about Chavez is he’s an advanced hitter who can adapt to situations and varying pitchers with diffreent approaches at the plate. Chavez always had power, but when his skills hit their peak, he could make dramatic adjustments within games, and even within at bats. That kind of approach takes some years to refine, and of course Crawford is in just his first full year of pro ball.
Huh, I just noticed Wendell Fairley has 0 HBP this year. After having approximately 20,000 last year.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
Good night to be a Giants fan.
Especially if you like pitching.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 29, 2009 11:54 PM PDT reply actions
That stadium gun must definitely be off, Brute reported that Runzler’s FB was in the 93-95 MPH range…
I will say the gun I was reading was a scout’s, not a stadium gun (none in Augusta to read).
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
by BruteSentiment on Jun 1, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions
If I ever go back into porn, my professional name will be T.J. Large.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 30, 2009 12:12 AM PDT reply actions
How could a guy named Large NOT sign with the “Giants?”
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
As soon as I saw that name I was thinking “porn” or “sitcom produced by a Wayans”
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on May 30, 2009 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Good to see Guzie hit the ball out of the infield again
Crawford: AA too soon? AA too difficult? Dodd Stadium?
Good to see Big V getting over his slump.
What, no Jacks Williams news? Brother Jacks 1-2 with a couple of BBs and a ribbie. With the weather heating up so is Jacks as he raises his average all the way back to .235!
lol Bocock
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
nice outing for Steve S too. Always a good day when you see Giants minor leaguers.
Some guys need a few trips to the majors, then get it together. Misch—may just be kind of hittable by big leaguers.
cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"
He doesn't misch many bats, thats for sure
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 30, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I’ve been on the Surkamp bandwagon for a while, but he’s been fairly impressive, all things considered. If he can get K’s in the 6/9 range while keeping the walks to 1.5, he could be a very solid major league starter. it remains to be seen what he can do against a higher level opponent, however.
Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.
Everyone Wins
It is a good day/night when all Giants affiliates and the big club win – usually means good performances. Shoop is doing very well in AA and is still only 22 year old – I realize he was moved to third due to Crawford being moved up – does he still project as a shortstop? Looks like Surkamp may be someone to watch – only 21 and looks like a lefty with good control. Wonder if they will move him up sometime this season? MadBum is the bomb!!!
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