Overperformers vs. Underperformers as of 5/29/09
by xanthan on May 29, 2009 4:16 PM PDT
38 comments
Yay, graphs! I posted something similar back in December.
RA/9 vs. tRA for the starters and relievers. The closer to the line a pitcher is, the better their RA/9 matches up with their tRA (tRA is also scaled to 9 innings like RA/9). If you're in the upper-left section of the graph, you've underperformed your tRA. If you're in the lower-right section, you've overperformed your tRA.
| Name | RA/9 | tRA | Diff. |
| Barry Zito | 4.02 | 6.14 | -2.15 |
| Matt Cain | 2.40 | 4.47 | -2.10 |
| Jonathan Sanchez | 5.02 | 4.86 | 0.13 |
| Tim Lincecum | 3.18 | 2.28 | 0.87 |
| Randy Johnson | 6.26 | 5.05 | 1.18 |
Good Stuff: Lincecum is super awesome. Jonathan Sanchez and Randy Johnson have pitched slightly better than their RA/9's indicate.
Bad Stuff: Matt Cain and Barry Zito have benefited from some good luck. Both Cain and Zito have outpitched their tRA's by +2 runs.
| Name | RA/9 | tRA | Diff. |
| Jeremy Affeldt | 2.57 | 4.47 | -1.90 |
| Brian Wilson | 5.57 | 3.33 | 2.24 |
| Justin Miller | 2.14 | 4.41 | -2.27 |
| Brandon Medders | 3.15 | 5.46 | -2.31 |
| Bob Howry | 4.00 | 2.61 | 1.39 |
| Merkin Valdez | 3.46 | 5.63 | -2.17 |
Good Stuff: Wilson's recent struggles have been hard to watch, but he's still most likely our best reliever in the pen. His tRA is sitting at 3.33. Bob Howry also got a surprisingly good tRA.
Bad Stuff: Parts of the bullpen have overperformed substantially. I was surprised to see Affeldt get dinged by tRA. Medders is probably ready to implode at any minute. Merkin Valdez hasn't been much better.
*SSS caveat for the data -- especially the relievers. Things can still change pretty quickly in terms of overall numbers.
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Where can I look up tRA’s? And how exactly does that stat work. Am I correct in assuming it’s a more finely tuned FIP?
Thanks for the graphs Xanthan, even if it does insult my son :(
Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.
by MonkeyChow on May 29, 2009 4:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You can find tRA, tRA+, and tRA* scores on StatCorner.com. Really cool site.
From StatCorner’s glossary:
Developed by Graham MacAree, the basic introduction to tRA is located here. tRA involves assigning run and out values to all events under a pitcher’s control and coming up with an expected number of runs allowed and outs generated in a defense and park neutral environment. tRA is on a R/9 scale and does not involve any regression of the rates so while it should be more useful at determining a pitcher’s true talent level, the best method for pitching projection is to use tRA*, the regressed version of tRA.
Read more about tRA, here. It’s like FIP, but it includes other events like groundballs, flyballs, etc.
by xanthan on May 29, 2009 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lincecum...Underperforming
It boggles the mind.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
by marcello on May 29, 2009 4:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
IF HE WAS SO GOOD HE WOULDNT UNDERPERFORM
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
by marcello on May 29, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steve Phillips has hijacked marcello’s account.
by xanthan on May 29, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not clutchy enough. And don’t give me that Cy Young hullabaloo. They give those out to everyone nowadays.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
by marcello on May 29, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cain is overdue for some good luck. I hope it continues.
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on May 29, 2009 4:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm sensing
20-game winner luck this season.
by AmorVincitOmnia on May 30, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
good stuff, dude… thanks
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on May 29, 2009 4:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thats depressing
Except for Lincecum, Johnson and Wilson
The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.
by GrahamCrakalaka on May 29, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I sort of get it
On the run from Johnny Law, aint no trip to Cleveland, or San Francisco.
by PAWarrior on May 29, 2009 5:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Fyi, BP had a nice piece on Cain's performance
He’s been lucky, but he’s also been smart.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8960
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
by Aadik on May 29, 2009 10:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't read it
But I hope their argument is better than the “he bears down in the clutch” which the free portion suggests.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on May 30, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They use Pitch F/X to show how he’s been better in the clutch, but they don’t really make a case for why we should expect him to keep it up.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
by Cookyman on May 30, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching from the stretch might have somthing to do with it
by FairweatherFan on May 31, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But why would he suddenly be better from the stretch after 3+ years in the majors in which he’d never shown such tendency? Fluke is still by far the most likely explanation.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
by Cookyman on Jun 1, 2009 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have no ide
Not trying to pretend I know, just throwing out the only obvious difference.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 1, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The samples are so small
But it’s weird. his K% this year is down overall (BB% constant), but he’s still striking more batters out with the bases empty than w/ men on, both in his career and 2009.
Likewise, he walks less w/ bases empty – career and 2009. That as much makes sense because you would expect him to challenge hitters more w/ the bases empty, resulting more strikeouts and less base on balls.
I think he is just benefiting from good (lucky?) defense personally. his BABIP in 2009 w/ runners on is like .150, wheras over his career it’s .270 ish in all situations (including men on).
What is especially strange is that Cain, over his career – has pitched his absolute BEST w/ the bases loaded.
24.5% K rate, 5.6% BB Rate (!!!) (That’s a 4.33 K:BB) and a batting average against of only .226 despite a career – normal .278 BABIP.
It’s a fairly small sample (58 Pa’s), but still interesting. It does seem to suggest that the guy can throw strikes when he needs to.
His BABIP w/ bases empty is .375, which is again a significant deviation from his career norms.
by FairweatherFan on Jun 1, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s a fairly small sample (58 Pa’s), but still interesting. It does seem to suggest that the guy can throw strikes when he needs to.
250 PA’s are a fairly small sample size. 58 PA’s can’t really suggest much of anything.
Anyway, the more I think about it, the worst this article seems. Before reading it we knew that Cain seems to have been pitching better in the clutch, and that there’s no real reason to believe it’s sustainable. The article showed that he has been pitching better in the clutch, but showed absolutely no evidence that it’s sustainable, not even a logical argument for why it might be. So now we know that Cain has been pitching better in the clutch, and that there’s still no real reason to believe it’s sustainable. Not really a big difference.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
by Cookyman on Jun 2, 2009 5:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, I disagree
If I were to throw 58 Pa’s, you would be able to conclude that I can’t pitch.
I’m not sure if someone like Sanchez has ever gone 58 PA’s in their career w/o issuing more than 3 walks, for example.
Also, 58 PA’s w/ the bases loaded is not the same as 58 strait PA’s. The bases loaded sample is taken somewhat randomly across his entire career, so it should encompass both hot and cold streaks as well as times when he is struggling with control or not. Selection bias would tend to make you believe that it is more likely these samples came from times when control was an issue – otherwise bases wouldn’t be loaded.
I think it is reasonable to look at that sample and conclude that Cain, for the most part, can avoid walking people when it is imperative that he does so.
Sanchez, for example – has walked 5 in 35 PA’s w/ the bases loaded. That’s a 14% walk rate, higher than his career walk rate of ~ 12%.
I sometimes think SSS is used a little to liberally to dismiss things. One has got to be as careful about dismissing data too easily as they are about believing data from too small of a sample.
Randy Johnson, for example – has 341 Career Pa’s with the bases loaded. He’s walked 19, for a rate of 5.5%. His career line is 8.7%. Is that a significant sample?
by FairweatherFan on Jun 3, 2009 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, 58 PA’s w/ the bases loaded is not the same as 58 strait PA’s. The bases loaded sample is taken somewhat randomly across his entire career, so it should encompass both hot and cold streaks as well as times when he is struggling with control or not.
I’m not sure I buy that. Is there really any evidence this is true? Even if it does, it still can’t make up for the fact that it’s 58 PA’s.
I think it is reasonable to look at that sample and conclude that Cain, for the most part, can avoid walking people when it is imperative that he does so.
Almost all pitchers can improve their control when they need to. The league average BB% when the bases are loaded is 7.3%, compared to 8.7% when they’re not. But we don’t have anything approaching a large enough sample size to determine that Cain is any better at it than the average pitcher.
Randy Johnson, for example – has 341 Career Pa’s with the bases loaded. He’s walked 19, for a rate of 5.5%. His career line is 8.7%. Is that a significant sample?
Yes, 341 PA’s is a better sample size than 58 PA’s. About 6 times better. I’m not sure I get the question.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
by Cookyman on Jun 3, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All Cain needs is to focus like the bases are loaded all the time, and he’ll pitch with a 4.33 K:BB ratio and .226 average against in all situations!
by Missing Barry on Jun 2, 2009 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly!
by FairweatherFan on Jun 3, 2009 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Xanthan, we had this conversation last time, but you need to draw that diagonal line differently. The average pitcher’s tRA <> the average pitcher’s RA/9, which means a pitcher with “average luck” will not be located on the line you drew. Re-reading the earlier thread, the line got shifted to the right by .45 last time, making all of our pitchers “luckier” than your graph portrays.
by cakes on May 29, 2009 11:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ve adjusted it this time. The differences between a league average RA/9 and tRA is pretty small right now. The difference between the two for starters was like .03 runs and for relievers it was like .06 runs. The lines are adjusted, but since the differences are so small it might look like they’re not.
by xanthan on May 30, 2009 6:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the bullpen has so few innings that a few solid performances, will bring the ERA in line with TRA. That’s less true of the starters.
I’m not sure Matt Cain’s Kirk Reuter trick of being more aggressive with runners on is going to work all season.
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on May 30, 2009 8:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
>:(
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
by rotorueter on May 30, 2009 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. The relievers will fluctuate much more depending on performances. The starters will too to an extent. After Cain’s game last night his tRA dropped to 4.16 which is still over his RA/9, but it’s closer.
by xanthan on May 30, 2009 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe a “typo” in the graph?
Name RA/9 tRA Diff.
Randy Johnson 6.26 5.05 1.18
I think the graph has Randy at 5.50 tRA.
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
by kennv on May 30, 2009 10:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, my SS was doing something funky. I’ve updated the graph.
by xanthan on May 30, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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