Travis comes alive!
by FairweatherFan on May 26, 2009 9:11 AM PDT
62 comments
(Or how I learned to stop worrying and love SSS).
Currently, TI is batting .250/.327/.330 for a whopping OPS of .657 and a OPS+ of 72. The Giants as a whole have an OPS+ of 39 at 1b relative to the rest of baseball.
Ouch. Clearly the blackest hole in the lineup.
So after TI's big game yesterday, I thought I'd look at his detailed stats and see if I could figure out what was going on.
I mainly looked at HR related stuff, because I can remember several deep fly balls that he has hit this year that, if either in a different park OR different conditions would have certainly been out. He's seemed a little snakebit so far this year with the long ball. One in SD in particular was about 2 feet from landing in the short porch, but instead landed in Giles' glove.
I was right. While his FB % is high - 40%... his HR/FB is incredibly low. A measly 3.8%. His K rate and BB rate are essentially the same as last year, as is his BABIP.
In a similarly sized sample last year, TI hit .274/.337/.432. A line I think today we would all be happy with (and combined with his above average defense, a line that might make him close to a league average 1b and certainly not the teams biggest problem.)
If we go ahead and regress his HR/FB rate, it gives us approximately 3 HR's thusfar (which, coincidentally, is how many he had last year w/ approximately the same sized sample, and how many I would think is reasonable based on watching him play.)
If I then pretend that essentially 2 of his deep fly balls had eeked over the fence instead of being caught for outs, his line this year looks like .270/.342/.410.
OPS of .742.
Again, a line I think we would all be a lot happier with. What does this mean? I think Travis is who we thought he was, and his supressed line so far this season is due essentially to a lack of power (everything else looks identical to last year, K%, BB%, OBP%, Etc.).
Because of the size of the sample, his lack of power can be very easily attributed to a little bad luck.
This also means that I am less enthusiastic about making a trade for 1b, because I think TI is probably capable of doing reasonably well there for us, assuming we continue to have faith in him and maybe find a reasonable platoon mate (Jesus?).
Also: Warning on Nick Johnson, benefactor of a .395 BABIP so far this season.
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he asked for it
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
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Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!
by merkin on May 26, 2009 9:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Needs more hair.
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by Lyle on May 26, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But seriously,
Travis needs to get that K rate down from over 30% closer to 20% if we ever want a decent average from him. His major league sample size is so small, you really need to look at his minor league stats to get any idea of what kind of hitter he is.In 2008, he cut down his K’s and started putting the ball in the air, while maintaining a BABIP of about .315 or so. He had a .350+ BABIP in the majors last year, and currently has about the same, but I don’t believe its sustainable.
Stepping away from the stats, something strange is going on with Ishikawa. Ican’t remember seeing a hitter swing through so many pitches that he had timed perfectly. Seems like he is on that fastball and WHOOSH, right past his bat. He has his share of fooled swing throughs as well…..but I think he must be bouncing his head, pulling off the ball, or just plain going blind…..
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Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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by merkin on May 26, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
“I can’t remember seeing a hitter swing through so many pitches that he had timed perfectly. Seems like he is on that fastball and WHOOSH, right past his bat.”
Yeh, that frustrates me so much. It makes it seem as if he’s not seeing the ball AT ALL. It’s surprising when he actually makes contact.
by AmorVincitOmnia on May 26, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn’t it be great if we had a hitting coach who would/could point that out to him? As long as he takes a cut, Carney seems to be happy…
Actually, WTF? Why is Lansford not on the hot seat? I know most of them are kids, but aren’t they supposed to have a little more upside than this?
by KrazyKrabMeat on May 26, 2009 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously
don’t you think that Lansford has mentioned that once or twice? Quick rundown, hitting a baseball is really, really hard. I’m sure that Charlie Lau couldn’t get better numbers out of Ishikawa.
by tyrannoman on May 26, 2009 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The first thing i thought of when I saw the title of this thread
Proud leader of the Lunatic Fringe breaking off from the Lunatic Fringe of McCovey Chronicles
by TexasRanger on May 26, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His swing still looks loopy to me. Can he hit anything other than hanging off speed stuff?
Also, Buddy Carlyle kinda sucks.
by xanthan on May 26, 2009 9:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
killjoy
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 26, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Food for thought: THT has his PrOPS at .683 which is almost spot on to his current .657 OPS.
by xanthan on May 26, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s only based on regressing BABIP though, isn’t it? I guess FWF’s whole argument here is that he should have more HR than he does. Still, I don’t think there’s really much room for improvement with Travis if he can’t cut his strikeouts down.
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by jponry on May 26, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It still is. It doesn’t appear that he has fast enough hands to get around on fastballs up in the zone, or inside for that matter. It looks like he’s compensated for his lack of wrist-speed by lengthening his swing to generate power, but that only exacerbates his problems with high fastballs. I’d be interested to see someone breakdown his hits and swing-throughs by pitch-type. I just have a feeling that the loop in his swing is going to prevent him from substantially lowering his K-rate.
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by cornball on May 26, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
I have heard a few other casual observers voice the same opinion about Travis’ wrist speed/bat speed. Does anyone know if any scouts have written reports about this? Maybe some old information from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, etc. during Travis’ prospect days?
From what I always read, he was projected to be a 30 HR hitter if he reached his full potential. Would scouts, BA, BP, etc. say such things if his wrist speed was not quick enough?
I wonder if his stance could be adjusted in any way to help him? For a guy 6 foot 3, he looks awfully “short” at the plate. Maybe a more “upright” stance could help?
by Squire_Boone on May 26, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m going to watch more closely after reading this, but I haven’t noticed TI to have particularly slow hands.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on May 28, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was curious about something yesterday and thought I’d check it out.
Ishikawa’s home and away splits
Home: .361/.403/.492
Road: .077/.217/.077
I don’t put too much stock in home and road splits, but weeeiiiiiirrrrd.
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by Natto on May 26, 2009 10:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that’s bizarre.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on May 26, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There must be someting else going on here...
How big are the samples?
by FairweatherFan on May 26, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
about half as many ABs on the road as at home. .477 BABIP at home, .120 on the road.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on May 26, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah just saw that
I think the BABIP tells the story on both sides.
by FairweatherFan on May 26, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small samples + flukey BABIP = nonsensical splits
by FairweatherFan on May 26, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My guess...
Is that you’ll find quite a few Giants with crazy home/away splits so far this season (if I remember right Sanchez’s pitching splits are crazy as well):
Home Record: 14-8
Road Record: 7-15
by paboperfecto on May 26, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just looking at home/away splits in the majors, Padres and Twins are even more lopsided than we are. Also, what’s up with the NL East? Three teams have losing records at home and winning on the road. The Phillies in first place have a 8-13 home record. Weird.
by paboperfecto on May 26, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That probably explains his
lack of power numbers.
If it were switched (Away: .361/.403/.492 and Home: .077/.217/.077) he’d probably have about 3 or 4 HR by now.
by AmorVincitOmnia on May 26, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, and one less triple.
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
by kennv on May 27, 2009 6:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That must mean he sucks because road stats are the only true indicator of a player’s value, right OGC?
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by groug on May 26, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoa!
How about a Home/Away 1b platoon?
by KrazyKrabMeat on May 26, 2009 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love the creativitiness. Oddly, however, Aurilia’s splits are nearly as bad:
Home San Francisco Giants 12 23 1 5 2 0 0 8 7 2 3 0 0 .269 .304 .217
Away San Francisco Giants 13 39 2 6 0 0 0 2 6 1 10 0 0 .171 .154 .154
by tyrannoman on May 26, 2009 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn...
Both home and away stats suck for Aurilia.
by AmorVincitOmnia on May 27, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Incoming transmission from the Big Head...
So he is due!
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 27, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sandoval’s road numbers suck too
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by Goofus on May 28, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
TALK BOX!
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on May 26, 2009 10:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
.742 OPS is still miserable and unacceptable from a 1B.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
by rotorueter on May 26, 2009 10:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well
Sure, but this is the Giants we are talking about.
by FairweatherFan on May 26, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
But, you do have to allow for an “experience” curve. That is, one would hope that, with experience, Travis could put up better numbers. It takes time to adjust to major league pitching, sometime taking guys a couple years till they start putting up peak numbers.
Still, one would like to see decent production from 1B, and a .742 OPS probably won’t cut it, and probably isn’t the kind of basis point for improvement that one would want.
by Squire_Boone on May 26, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Motto for the ’09 Giants offense – Accept the unacceptable!!
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 26, 2009 10:46 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
reply fail
ment to rotorueter above.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 26, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see why we should regress his HR/FB, it’s not like he’s a pitcher. Hitters with little power have low HR/FB – otherwise they would have more power. That’s how it works. Either that, or Juan Pierre has some serious regressing to do. Also, his BABIP is .353, so I wouldn’t really call him unlucky.
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:-(
by Cookyman on May 26, 2009 12:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but
Travis isn’t a guy known to have “little power”. In fact, quite the opposite. My eyes also tell me that he’s hit numerous fly balls to the deepest parts of ATT w/o much reward. That’s different than a juan pierre type who’s FB’s consist of popups to the shallow outfield. League average hr/FB is about 10%, and given that what we know about TI is that he is anything BUT a Juan Pierre type hitter, I don’t think it is unreasonable to regress to that.
Certainly his BABIP will also regress, but that wasn’t really the direction I was going. I was mostly trying to point out that a little more wind here or there and we would be talking about how ok TI was doing instead of ZOMG WE NEED TO TRADE CAIN 4 A 1b BAT.
In short, the sample is still small. Don’t freak out. He probably is who we thought he was, a ~ .750-.800 OPS 1b w/ excellent defense.
Is that good? Eh, I dunno. I’d take it right now if it lets us focus resources in other deficient areas.
by FairweatherFan on May 26, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Travis isn’t a guy known to have "little power". In fact, quite the opposite
Not really. I mean, maybe he has power potential, but he also has a .454 career minor league SLG, which is pretty meh. He’s no Juan Pierre, but it’s definitely possibly that he just has warning track power.
I just don’t really see the point of regressing the HR/FB. I mean, if you think he’s got more power than he’s shown, I get that, but I think you’ve fallen into the circular logic trap. Basically, you say that he should have more power, so his HR/FB should regress. Then you show his regressed numbers as evidence that he should have more power.
My eyes also tell me that he’s hit numerous fly balls to the deepest parts of ATT w/o much reward.
Unless he’s changing a team, we should continue to see plenty of those.
By the way, I agree that he’s had a lot of deep outs. I’m just not sure if it’s a sign of bad luck and not of warning track power.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
by Cookyman on May 26, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My fundamental point
Is that merely changing 2 deep outs to 2 HR’s makes his line go from puke to meh.
That even after 100 AB’s, the samples are still small – so chill people.
I’m arguing that he is not an extreme – anti power hitter, so it makes sense to expect a HR/FB rate of approximately league average – because he probably has, at worst, league average power.
by FairweatherFan on May 26, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
League average power from a LHH pull hitter in AT&T should result in a well below average HR/FB, in my opinion.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
by Cookyman on May 26, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good points.
It worries me that Big Skull is talking about putting Pablo at first. Hopefully it is only temporarily. I’d rather have Pablo and Ishi in the line up, than Pablo and Uribe. I want to see what Ishi can do over 300 regular at bats.
Ishi in 103 ABs .252/.328/.330/ .658 9 BB, 1BB
In an even smaller sample Uribe (68 PA) – .288/.304/ .348/.653 – 2 BB, 0 HR
Both of their SLG and OPS should go up, but it’s the OBP that makes me prefer Ishi. With Molina in the lineup, I don’t know how many hackers the lineup can take.
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
by kennv on May 27, 2009 7:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ishikawa also plays stellar defense, and that has to be accounted for.
by tyrannoman on May 27, 2009 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It worries me that Big Skull is talking about putting Pablo at first.
It’s because he hurt his arm, isn’t it?
by xanthan on May 27, 2009 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup. Maybe he’ll throw lefthanded while he plays first.
by tyrannoman on May 27, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If his arm is hurt, they should just bench him for a while. First basemen have to throw the ball too.
by Evan on May 27, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
Or put him on the goddamn DL
by FairweatherFan on May 27, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pablo is ambidextrous.
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on May 27, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so is Aurillia
he can fake bunt/K from both sides of the plate!
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by zenbitz on May 27, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I highly doubt
He is ambidextrous enough to be able to play professional baseball using his off-hand.
by FairweatherFan on May 27, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
IIRC Sandoval is actually naturally left-handed.
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on May 27, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record, I don’t want Pablo playing at 1st.
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on May 27, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Continue the experiment!
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on May 27, 2009 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record
I’m with Natto.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on May 28, 2009 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Natto and Lyle sitting in a tree.......
not that there is anything wrong with it
by wilriv21 on May 28, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
THERE IS NOW
by FairweatherFan on May 28, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he learned to throw righty so he could catch.
From the ESPN article on him this year:
Sandoval’s hefty frame conceals a natural athleticism; he’s ambidextrous and can throw the ball accurately and with zip as both a lefty and a righty. But his range is limited at third, and the Giants are covered at catcher for the short term with Molina and the long term with top prospect Buster Posey. The consensus is that Sandoval will forsake both catching and third base for first base eventually.
I bet he would be fine. How many throws do 1B really need to make?
by xanthan on May 27, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have a lot of evidence that he is ambidextrous enough to play baseball with his off hand.
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on May 27, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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