Crazy Draft Talk: Tim Wheeler?
Alright, I'm going to go out on a limb and make a fool of myself once more, but I think this question should be asked.
The Giants are in a rough draft position right now. With the number six pick in the draft, there are a lot of pitfalls around them. But I have an off-the-wall suggestion for them: Tim Wheeler, center fielder from Sacramento State. Now, hold off on bashing this idea for just a moment, and hear the reasoning.
Truthfully, there will be a number of talented players available. From high school stars (Tyler Matzek, Zach Wheeler) to college aces (Kyle Gibson) to post-college pitchers (Tanner Scheppers, Aaron Crow), there will be a plethora of pitching likely available, even if some of those guys are taken.
The problem is...pitching? Now, I’m not one to jump on ‘Draft a hitter only!’ bandwagon, especially in a year as down on hitting as this year, but another pitcher may not help the Giants much. The rotation is loaded right now, with three young pitchers and another in a long-term contract. Behind that, the team has two pitchers who are among the best in baseball (Madison Bumgarner & Tim Alderson), and a strong amount of second-tier guys. The Giants’ system had the ERA leaders in five of the six leagues it played in, as well as the full-season ERA leader in any league, and currently has six-man rotations in Connecticut, San Jose and Augusta. It was indicated the recent release of pitching prospect Adam Cowart was partially due to the fact the team did not have the room to develop him as a starter, and was to give him a chance to catch on elsewhere.
While a team can always stockpile, prospect-for-prospect trades are becoming ever harder to make, and the Giants have not been exemplary at doing this in the Sabean reign. That makes drafting another pitcher more likely to cause a logjam than make a trade easier.
Add in that none of the pitchers have an intangible feel like Lincecum or Bumgarner. Sure, the Giants may be able to see what few others do (such as they did with Alderson), but to do that for the third time in five drafts, pulling a top pitcher out of a mid-level pick? That's not likely at all.
Even so, clearly the value at the Giants’ pick will be pitching, and if one were to go for the best player available, it’d be a pitcher. But what about the hitters?
Dustin Ackley, the top college hitter in the draft, will likely be going #2 overall to the Seattle Mariners. Behind him, there are some questions. One is USC shortstop Grant Green, who has underperformed mightily and been rated by some as a power-plus player after a strong Cape Cod league last summer. In a lot of ways, he sounds a bit like a higher-ceiling but less-dedicated Brandon Crawford, who slipped to the fourth round in a strong all-around draft. He has a lot of talent, but has had enough struggles to be scaring teams off. Still, he may even be drafted before the Giants get their chance.
The other main position player is Donavan Tate. The consensus top prep prospect, he is this year’s toolsy, raw prospect. The thing is, there’s no denying his athleticism, but he’s no guarantee to develop all his tools, notably his power. For every Jason Heyward drafted like this, there’s three or four guys like the Giants’ Wendell Fairley, who starts very slow and will take very long to develop. No one disagrees that Tate is a project at best, and that’s before discussing that his agent is Scott Boras, and no one is really sure that he’ll choose baseball over football.
Both of those players seem to have as much, if not more, bust potential than chance to actually reach their potential, and both seem to duplicate recently drafted players. But is there another option?
That’s where Tim Wheeler comes in.
Wheeler finished his regular season with Sacramento State by batting .385/.494/.765 with 16 doubles, three triples and 18 home runs, 15 stolen bases in 17 attempts and 29 walks against 28 strikeouts in 200 at-bats.
Wheeler has been rising on draft boards. In Baseball America’s recent draft, he was at #15 overall, and was the fourth position player taken, behind the three listed above (BA had the Giants taking Tate). That’s a far cry from #6, but not as far as some might make it out to be.
Wheeler has been a hidden commodity, partially from playing at a small school in one of the smaller west coast leagues, the WAC conference. But few disagree he’s now the fourth best position prospect out there. While BA doubts his ability to stay in center, Keith Law and MiLB.com indicates he should be a good center fielder. He makes good contact, and he’s answered some doubts about his power between a good Cape Cod League and a strong junior season. That, and he’s one of the draft’s more accomplished base-stealers.
Wheeler’s playing on the left coast and being a bit of a hidden player may account for some underrating, but that is countered by moving up simply in a weak hitting draft.
So, is it worth it to take Wheeler in what few would disagree is a reach?
Well, in baseball, there isn’t as much value in draft position as in other drafts, where you can trade down to try and get a player you want. With no trades in baseball, you need to take who you want where you want.
But the key to Wheeler is that he’d bring a different look to the outfield prospects the Giants have, particularly in center field. Where the current batch the Giants have are either raw athletes who are having problems adapting (Fairley), or under-tooled speedsters who don’t have the discipline to use their speed (Timpner, McBryde), Wheeler brings a guy who already has the basic tools to succeed. Assuming he stays a center fielder, he’s got the defense, the base-running, and an ability to get on base both with hits and walks. And the fact he has questionable power does nothing to differentiate him from most of the class, including Green and Tate, who both have power that needs developing and that is no sure thing.
If it were to come to position players, I’d rather the Giants take Wheeler and sign him at a reasonable rate, and use the money saved that might’ve been spent on Green or Tate and use it for the July 2nd signing period of Dominican prospects, such as Angel Salome.
As I’ve said, taking Wheeler would not be taking the best player available. And Wheeler has a bit of work to do on his own swing. But he appears to have a better chance to succeed on his talent than the other hitters that would be available, which is no small thing, especially considering the bonuses that Boras-represented clients will demand. I have no doubt I’d prefer Wheeler over Tate or Green. The question will be more about Wheeler versus the available pitchers. And, to that end, I do think Wheeler might be the better fit for this Giants team.
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Comments
Wheeler vs Trout
In Jonathan Mayo’s mock draft he believes the Giants will select OF Michael Trout with their pick. How would you rate the two OFs?
Reviewing Mayo’s 2008 mock draft he was very accurate.
by wilriv21 on May 24, 2009 6:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know if I’d say he was “very accurate.” He got half the picks in the top 10 and was wrong on the other half. He had Tanner Scheppers going #10, and he didn’t end up getting picked until the second round as I recall.
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by jcb9 on May 24, 2009 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The mock was about a month prior to the draft
When reading the picks he also makes comments about the Rays liking Beckham, the Giants loving Posey, etc. Scheppers got hurt and fell to second round. Also mentioned Jason Castro could sneak into the top 10.
Taking into account that the mock draft was dated 5/14 and the draft was 6/7 he pretty much nailed it.
by wilriv21 on May 24, 2009 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, I missed that Scheppers wasn’t hurt yet at that point. That does make a difference.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
by jcb9 on May 24, 2009 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really the only picks he was way off on was Tanner Scheppers at 10, Posey at 1, and Tim Beckham at 5. But considering Posey probably should’ve gone #1 if not for money concerns, he still did pretty good. And it was also considered unlikely that Smoak would even fall to #9.
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by boonitez on May 24, 2009 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
He had the Giants looking at Posey or Smoak with their pick in this pre-draft discussion: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080603&content_id=2830274&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp
In his final draft prediction he listed (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080604&content_id=2837388&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp):
1. Tim Beckham – correct
2. Pedro Alvarez – correct
3. Eric Hosmer – correct
4. Brian Matusz – correct
5. Buster Posey – correct
6. Kyle Skipworth – correct
7. Gordon Beckham – wrong, but had them picking Alonso in prior list
8. Yonder Alonso – wrong, but had them picking G-Beck in prior list, not bad swapped positions
9. Justin Smoak – wrong, first one really wrong, he had Crow going instead to Rangers though…
10. Brett Lawrie – wrong, but I don’t blame him, he had the right position ©, who knew the Astros would go mental and select Casto instead? (though to be fair to them, he’s doing as well as Posey is in Advanced A-ball offensively, so they obviously saw something most other people didn’t; Brett Lawrie is doing OK, but at one level lower, and he’s playing 2B, not C; look like Stros were right thus far)
11. Aaron Crow – wrong, but included to show that he got 10 of the first 11 players correctly, with the first 6 exactly correct (he also got 12th correct too and 14th correct too))
All in all, I would call that very accurate, particularly for a draft.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 26, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know Trout's been climbing...
…but I just don’t see him as a Top Ten pick. He’s raw, and though he’s raw in a different way than Tate, I’d take Tate above Trout due to ceiling. I’m very wary of players trying new things with their approach before a draft, and trying to learn switch-hitting is as big a new thing as it gets.
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by BruteSentiment on May 24, 2009 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One other thing...
I’m not saying we should, but how would this be for a second-round pick?
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=cain
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by BruteSentiment on May 24, 2009 6:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
has the big sturdy size Sabean likes for a workhorse pitcher. Like that he is a competitor.
Go with Green (if Crow, Scheppers, Miller gone) at #6 and then go fishing for pitching
by wilriv21 on May 24, 2009 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is how my mind works:
In that scouting report, he’s compared to Greg Swindell. So I looked up Swindell on b-r, and was amazed at how long he stuck around for. I saw he was the #2 overall pick, so I looked at everyone who was taken in the first round that year. Jeff King and Greg Swindell went first and second, with Matt Williams, Kevin Brown, and Gary Sheffield shortly after. #8 was Patrick Lennon, who was a guy who never really got a chance and I wasn’t quite sure why. He never showed much of any power in the majors, but he was an OBP machine. Maybe he was just one of those guys who came along too early for his own good. He also spend like 20 years in the minors. Dang.
Colton Cain to Patrick Lennon in three moves. whee.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
by jcb9 on May 24, 2009 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brute, any thoughts on Matt Davidson
Seems like off-the-charts power; any chance he lasts till the 2nd rd?
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
by Aadik on May 24, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Davidson a lot...
…and you are right about his power. But if he’s there at the second round, either he’s a steal or he’s not going to sign with anyone….though a California team might be able to talk him into the pros. That said, that California team that would try should be the Angels, with literally any of their five picks between 24 and 48, or the Dodgers at 36.
If he’s there, I’d want him, but I doubt he’ll be there. I’ll honestly be surprised if he lasts into the supplemental round.
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by BruteSentiment on May 24, 2009 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
With a name like Cain, how could you go wrong??
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by Mordy From Monsey on May 25, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hornet!
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on May 24, 2009 7:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d prefer either Green or a pitcher, mostly just because we’re good with pitchers and Green is polished and may well just be underperforming. I would love to have Tate, but I really don’t trust us to develop an unpolished HS position player.
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by boonitez on May 24, 2009 7:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This year is really making me wish there was trading allowed in MLB Drafts. Other than Crow and Ackley (and of course, Strasburg) I’m not that enamored with the top picks this year. I’d much rather trade down and get a guy like Wheeler or Storen (yes, I’m biased towards the Stanford guys… sorry), but as it stands I think we need to just suck it up and go BPA, even if that’s a high school arm.
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by Smoke on the Water on May 24, 2009 8:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'm gonna call BS on the trading-prospects problem.
Although I think we’ll see a year or two stall as prospects become even more valuable for cheap service time, I’d remind everyone that the tenet of Moneyball is to find an overvalued commodity—and at the moment, prospects are wildly overvalued commodities. I’d go so far as to argue another GM (not Sabes, who is probably ludicriously gun-shy after Liriano—who, needless to say, never displayed any of the injury problems that the front office thought he had and has successfully led Minnesota to several World Series titles while the remaining Giants pitching has been awful OMG WORST TRADE EVER SLIT SLIT BLEED) could probably make a lethal killing off dealing Alderson or the MadBum, although I think Sabean, being a bit reactionary, probably buys into the prospect overvaluation.
So that being said, honestly, I’d be pretty happy with Zack Wheeler. I think good things will come of him, and even if not—TINSTAAPP. I will place money on oone of Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Bumgarner, or Alderson dying of measles or something rather than having a 15-year career.
My son is Madison Bumgarner, the Spacebat of pitching prospects. My other son is a Porsche.
by multiphasic on May 24, 2009 8:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d go best player available. If it’s a pitcher, and it probably will be, so be it.
Determining whom to draft is difficult enough without putting new constraints on the decision, like “we’re looking for a good hitter who won’t cost more than x.” You’ve got to take what the draft gives you.
I don’t think we’ll end up with too many pitchers. Injuries, attrition, inconsistent stuff, moves to the bullpen — almost no one ever ends up with too many pitchers. And if you do, you trade ’em.
Having said all that, though, I’m not opposed to Tim Wheeler. If the Giants really believe in his bat and think he can stick in center, then he just might be the best-available player at six. I probably wouldn’t take him that high, but I’d keep an open mind about it.
by Dan from NM on May 24, 2009 8:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Tim Wheeler would not be a good pick 6th overall
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 24, 2009 9:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I am pulling for Tim Wheeler simply because I want to be able to say I had a college English class with the center fielder for the Giants. Now that being said, taking him so early would probably not be the best bet despite the fact that I believe he will be a legit major leaguer.
by sfgiants114 on May 24, 2009 11:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
As you say, he would be a reach. I wouldn’t mind it that much, though.
After Ackley, the question marks abound.
I’d still go with Green over Wheeler, if available. I think….
I’m completely mixed on Tate (and as I recall, Heyward had a good bit more polish than Tate does, especially when it comes to Power). From what I’ve heard, the football as still a possibility is mostly just a leverage ploy by Boras; put the requisite money up and the problem disappears. I like all his tools….but, like everyone else… the contact question is a major concern. And that is a scary concern to have about a player who will cost that much.
So I say go with the best Prep pitcher. There will be a spot at Augusta for him next year.
And avoid Crow like the plague (his motion looks like an arm injury waiting to happen). But I haven’t seen much of either of them…so maybe not.
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by haverecords on May 24, 2009 11:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree that football is a leverage ploy
I think he’s shown which sport he’s most interested in by selecting Boras as his agent, Boras would not waste his time with a prospect who is serious about football as his future career, I would think. Or is there a football player he’s been an agent for?
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"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
"He got his pitch; he did not miss it" - Cainer
"Kung Fu Panda don't get hurt" - Cainer
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 26, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As much as I like Tyler Matzek and Zach Wheeler, you’ve made a good case for Tim Wheeler. How do you think his power would translate to wooden bats and better pitching, Kevin? It’s hard not to pull for a Hornet.
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by Lyle on May 25, 2009 6:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, Green hit six home runs in 151 at-bats in the Cape Cod League, which had people talking about his power potentials with wood. I can’t find the number of at-bats for Wheeler, but he had four in what had to be a similar number.
His power has obviously begun developing this year, which does make it a risky trend to follow, but most people feel he’ll have average power for a center fielder.
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by BruteSentiment on May 25, 2009 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any argument based on the needs of the big league club or the depth of the system I disregard. Almost any player selected in the draft is going to contribute 2-3 years in the future, minimum. Lincecum is a complete anomaly and Cain/Bumgarner/Alderson is rare. What the team will look like at that time is almost completely unknown, so basing any decisions on future speculation is absurd.
Just take the best player. If, after development and injury attrition, you have a surplus of talent at a position (and it’s very difficult to have a true surplus of pitching, which is why I suggest going this route in the upcoming draft given that pitching is deep this year), you deal with it through trade.
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by tedfordfan on May 25, 2009 6:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with what you’re saying but there are certain commodities the league, as a whole, is almost always starved for:
Top of the Rotation Starters, good SS & good CF. I really have a hard time thinking of teams so stacks at the MLB level in any of those 3 spots that a talented kid goes to rot on the farm of the bench. Off the top of my head the closest I am getting the current Ray’s SS. Frankly the Rays might be holding on for just the right type of player to be avilible in the next 6 months.
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by daveinexile on May 25, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
with Aki Iwamura going down for the season today I think they are a lot less likely to trade one of those extra Shorstops
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 25, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i can agree with that.
I was just trying to come up witha situation that was counter to what I was saying ( that good T.O.R, SS, & Cf never go to waste). And that was the closest example i could think of.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 25, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright, I'm going to go out on a limb and make a fool of myself once more,
Thx fro the insight Brute. Always look forward to reading your comments…The only fools here are the ones that thing you might be a fool!!
"Buy High-Sell Low"--The Brian Sabean Method Of Trading
by Mordy From Monsey on May 25, 2009 11:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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