Sabean in talks for a bat
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PAWarrior
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also from baggs
The club also is actively scouting other position players who could be available closer to the trade deadline.
Arrgh.
1) The Giants are really too far back for any reasonably possible trade to make up the difference. 5.5 games out of the playoffs, at any point in the season, has historically proven to be virtually insurmountable.
2) If the Giants were to have any shot what so ever, they’d have to make a move NOW, not at the deadline. Deadline deals are for teams that are on the cusp of of the playoffs, or gearing up to go deep into the postseason. A team that need to make up serious ground needs to make their deal as early as possble to have any chance of success.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
5 games out, at any point of the season, being virtually insurmountable?
That is crazy talk. But maybe you just chose the wrong words: it does mean that you are unlikely to make the playoffs. Yet there is nothing ‘virtually insurmountable’ about it: perhaps your eyes have magically added a 1 before the 5, so you read it 15.5….
Yet if you do mean it in the words you chose, you might want to look at that history again…or pay more attention to your words.
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by haverecords on May 23, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmm.
I’m depending on this site, which organized it’s list by playoff odds rather than game back. Anyway, you are correct insofar as it’s not terribly uncommon to see a playoff team which was 5 or more games out of the playoffs at some point. I found 17 from the WC era on that list above ( about 20% of all WC era playoff squads).
However, I’m pretty sure that the odds of any particular team facing a 5-game deficit making the playoffs are quite slim. exactly how slim, I’m too lazy to look up right now, but here’s a guesstimate. Just checking the last 3 seasons, it looks like 18-19 teams finish 5 or more games out of the playoffs in a normal season (note “finish,” the number that were that far back and closed the gap is a bit higher). 18*14 seasons since the WC = 252 teams. Add the 17 teams 5-game-back that made the playoffs and you get 269. 17/269 = 6.3%, about 16:1 against. Whether you consider that “virtually insurmountable” depends on your definition of “virtually”, It’s not worth trading prospect for a one year rental in any case (unless he’s Albert Pujols or something).
Of course, I’m pretty well buzzed and depending on alot sloppy research and back of the envelope calculations, so I could be completely off base (for one thing, the site I linked to above doesn’t seem to include playoff odds calculated before June 1).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I could name two teams that had a 10 game deficit and overcame it: 1978 Yankees, 1993 Braves. The 1995 Mariners were down a lot in September of 1995. 1964 Philies were 6 (?) games up the last week of September and blew it to the Cardinals. Who can forget the 2007 Mets blowing 6 games the last 2 weeks?
Yes, but how many teams that were 5 games back or more haven’t made the playoffs?
Almost all of them. And we’re probably one of those.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
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Wouldn’t it be more useful to look at how many playoff teams (as a percentage) were more than 5 out.
Not that the Giants are going to the playoffs even with Nicky J.
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by Johnny Disaster on May 24, 2009 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Because that's not directly addressing the question.
Let me use an extreme example. We know that people do win the lottery, but looking at a list of lotto winners does not tell us the odds that the ticket I bought at 7-11 last niight will pay off. To do that, we also need to know the list of lotto losers. Granted, the odds of the Giant making the postseason are significantly better than my odds of making the lottery, but the principle is the same: you have to look at the successes stories in relation to the failures.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Probably more useful to look at teams that were 5-10 games back (to make the sample smaller and more relevant) and then made the play-offs. Unfortunately, to make the study useful at all, you’d have to have all kinds of qualifiers. I think the most useful set of teams you could use for our current circumstances would be 5-10 games 40-80 games into the season.
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When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
No, it’d be useful to see what percentage of teams that were 5 games out or more made the playoffs.
Remember, we’re looking at the odds from our current position. There is no advantage to looking at playoff teams here.
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The problem with that sample body is it way to bottom heavy over generalized. Every season has 4-6 teams that are going to lose 90+ games. And it is not unheard of for 90+ win teams to get in because the division they are in is stack or a second place team has like 3-4 90+ loss teams to inflate their record on.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
You're assuming that the Giants aren't one of thosse 4-6 teams.
It’s unlikely, but no more unlikely than them making the playoffs.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Actually I was not. I am just saying it has to weighted and tradional bell- like curve would apply.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 24, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, presumably if you actually looked at it you’d just look at teams that were similar to the Giants this year. So, pretty much do what cornball suggested above.
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I mean in terms of record and games back.
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No
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
I liked this part
Sabean is not ready to pull any plugs on Fred Lewis, saying he still believes in the player.
FRED IS NOT THE PROBLEM!
Giants Seeking A Bat
By Tim Dierkes [May 23, 2009 at 8:26pm CST]
According to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, Giants GM Brian Sabean held court today. Baggarly learned that Sabean is actively seeking a bat on the trade market, and the GM has even begun considering hitters who are headed toward free agency (a change from his earlier stance).
Baggarly believes Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson has to be near the top of the list. Johnson has been linked to the Mets and Red Sox, the Mets perhaps more in a speculative sense. Nats GM Mike Rizzo has to love the multiple suitors, but he might want to move Johnson while his stock is high.
The Giants are nine games out in the NL West, so the sooner they add offense the better. The team is dead last in the NL in both OBP and SLG. Speculating on other acquisition targets: Aubrey Huff, Dan Uggla, Mark DeRosa, Paul Konerko, Matt Holliday, and Felipe Lopez. Other ideas? One factor to consider is that the Giants are not willing to trade their top prospects.
Wouldn’t mind getting Uggla or even Konerko. With Johnson being the main target.
This joke is past its prime
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McCC = McClain Chronicles
by Useful_Idiot on May 24, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
This is McCovey Chronicles
That has never stopped us before.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
It seems like every other post has something to do with “GINATS BRASS!!!!!!1”
Wall-E for Best Picture 2008
McCC = McClain Chronicles
by Useful_Idiot on May 24, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
3rd best MCC meme
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by EliminateMe on May 25, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
note this is because
every other post involves trading some random Ginats player for some guy no team would actually move in exchange.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
card carrying Bochy Hatter
by natteringnabob on May 26, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know if it was in there originally, but the link now includes a blurb that Whiteside is up for Misch and will start today. Pablo is also getting an MRI.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Schulman's "Trade Chatter"
indicates that they’ve inquired about Dan Uggla, no to Holliday, refuted shopping Cain
really not much else to article.
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