Barry Zito Pitch Value (AKA none...ZING!!!!!)

Next up in my look at the pitch types of the Giants starter is Barry Zito.  Apologies to those of you who dislike this stuff.

Barry Zito has us Giants fans in something of a quandary these days as he currently sports a shiny 3.6 ERA.  After all, we have derived such masochistic joy in hating him over the past few years.   We have hated his contract.  We have hated his seasons.   We have hated his attitude.  We have hated his ex-girlfriends (OK, that last one is not true.  Alyssa, CALL ME).    I initially intended my typical Gibbonesque Thesis-Antithesis statement here to the effect that despite his ERA  Zito has not been an appreciably different pitcher this season (4.7 FIP in 2008 vs 4.4 FIP in 2009); however, as you will see later,  Zito HAS been a different pitcher this season.

Observations:

1.  What the hell happened in 2006?   Although his effectiveness had declined following his (undeserved) Cy Young in 2002, Zito had remained largely the same pitcher from 2002 through 2005.   In 2006 (bolded above), he lost velocity and started throwing fewer fastballs and curveballs and more changeups.  Throwing more changeups when your fastball has lost a step (or three0 may seem like a pretty silly idea; however, the changeup actually was his best pitch that season.

2.  Sometimes the common wisdom gets one right.    Traditional baseball  thought attributed Zito's decline largely to his lost velocity.  As you can see from above,  Zito has a directly proportionate relationship between fastball velocity and FIP.

3. Zito is no longer a curveball pitcher.  In fact, in 2009 he has thrown fewer curveballs than any other pitch.

4. Zito has been a different pitcher in 2009. He has increased his velocity and is throwing significantly more sliders.   Additionally he has had more success with 3 of his 4 pitches than at any other point during his Giants tenure.  So why is Zito still so resoundingly mediocre?  The answer lies in his fastball and his changeup.  Zito's fastball has become a league average pitch with the increased velocity.  Zito's changeup is the real problem.  He throws a ton of them (18.2%) and they are not very good (-.3).   When 70% of your pitches (fastball + changeup) are average or not very good, you are going to be a mediocre pitcher.