Buster Posey: A Pretty Good Hitter
With the 2009 draft approaching, I was thinking back to the early picks last year. We all know Buster Posey's been hitting pretty damn well, despite a May slump (which he seems to have broken out of). But I was wondering how he's doing in comparison to other early first round hitters. The results are encouraging:
1) Tim Beckham: .284 / .331 / .403, 2 HR, 1 SB, 4 CS
2) Pedro Alvarez: .232 / .335 / .444, 8 HR
3) Eric Hosmer: .243 / .358 / .330, 1 HR
5) Buster Posey: .307 / .388 / .520, 7 HR
6) Kyle Skipworth: .167 / .221 / .292, 2 HR, 38 SO in 105 PA
7) Yonder Alonso: .285 / .360 / .472, 5 HR
8) Gordon Beckham: .294 / .366 / .487, 3 HR
10) Jason Castro: .267 / .345 / .447, 5 HR
11) Justin Smoak: .331 / .457 / .518, 6 HR
12) Jemile Weeks: .297 / .422 / .405, 1 HR, 6 SB
Now, I realize this is a limited look at how these players are doing, and that it's not really fair to compare players with different ages, skill sets, positions, etc., in this way, but as a quick glimpse, it's clear Posey's doing pretty well. His line is clearly better so far than any of the other players except Smoak, who he's not far behind. Despite questions about his power, he has the best slugging percentage of any of them, plus the most homers. He has the best OBP of any but Smoak and Weeks, and he's clearly head and shoulders above Weeks in other categories.
So, I'm feeling pretty good about young Geraldine.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Good post. I love me some Posey.
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou. "He has some bat speed and the ball comes off the bat pretty well" - K.Law.
Also, nice touch on the Busters’s underaged sister and the Sabes not drafting Smoak tags.
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou. "He has some bat speed and the ball comes off the bat pretty well" - K.Law.
I love Buster.
But wow, Smoak is good too. Why can’t we have both? :(
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Trayd Aldersen or Kane. Rangers need pitching! Get er Dunn Giants brass!
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou. "He has some bat speed and the ball comes off the bat pretty well" - K.Law.
For Alderson I actually would as well. I’m not sure I’d part with Cainer though.
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou. "He has some bat speed and the ball comes off the bat pretty well" - K.Law.
ZOMG that is terrrible. 38Ks in 105 PAs? Jesus.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Smoak and Gordon Beckham are at AA, Weeks, Tim Beckham, and Skipworth are at Low-A. The others are High-A.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
I think Smoak’s in the Texas League and Beckham’s in the Southern League.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
I always thought Texas was a hitters league
At least it was long ago when we had a club there, from what I recall
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
"He got his pitch; he did not miss it" - Cainer
"Kung Fu Panda don't get hurt" - Cainer
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 22, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
It always amused me that Shreveport was in the Texas League when it’s not in Texas and there’s also the Southern League, and Shreveport is in the south.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
posey should be in fresno in about a month and half
Bobby Evans said on the radio that they want to give Posey about 300 ABs and then they’re going to move him to triple a. He’s at 150 right now so I guess we should expect him there in about a month and half.
That's good info
Thanks for reporting!
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
"He got his pitch; he did not miss it" - Cainer
"Kung Fu Panda don't get hurt" - Cainer
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 22, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
But SJ is a pitchers park
So that is a negative effect on this stats that needs to be accounted for too.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
"He got his pitch; he did not miss it" - Cainer
"Kung Fu Panda don't get hurt" - Cainer
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 22, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
There was a study on MiLB a couple of years ago
Showed that strikeout rate was highest at San Jose across all of the minor leagues. They even interviewed Bowker and he noted that the background there makes it really hard to see pitches.
Don’t think that makes them great hitting prospects, but that was what was noted in that study, and thus need to be adjusted for.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
"He got his pitch; he did not miss it" - Cainer
"Kung Fu Panda don't get hurt" - Cainer
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 22, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh, so we shouldn’t ignore the home stats and just focus on what they did on the road?
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
One game in Lancaster makes up for that…
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on May 27, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions
“Rosterbation” is the most popular tag according the the McC stats. It has been used 33 times.
by Lars The Wanderer on May 22, 2009 2:32 PM PDT reply actions
Considering Beckham's at AA
I’d think you’d have to consider him doing “better” than Posey. And obviously Smoak too.
Their MLEs are pretty similar. Beckham’s are a bit better, but that includes a 40 point difference in BABIP, too.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
None of those 3 have to learn how to call a game on top everything else.
Original member of the Van Buren Boys
by NuschlerFace on May 22, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
And Smoak is playing at the least premium position, and I seem to recall there being some question as to whether Gordon Beckham can stick at short.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
I wouldn’t mind having Smoak, mind you. I think I’d take Posey over Beckham, though
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
I recall that too
But according to defensive stats (very small samples though) on minor league splits, he was above average defensively at SS last year. My understanding is that the White Sox thinks he can stick at SS but could move him to 2B if their current SS Ramirez establishes himself there.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
"He got his pitch; he did not miss it" - Cainer
"Kung Fu Panda don't get hurt" - Cainer
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 22, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Now that I think about it, I think it was xanthan who didn’t think Beckham would stick at short. That’s why xanthan hates him, along with his hair.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
But according to defensive stats (very small samples though)
Yeah, umm, “very small sample size” would be, say, 50 games’ worth of the best defensive stats out there (UZR, PMR). 12 games of TotalZone, which is the stat that Minor League Splits use, isn’t a small sample size. It’s a nothing.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
Food for thought
Beckham’s now hitting .280/.361/.467/.828 for Birmingham-AA, and the MLE according to Minor League Splits is only .234/.295/.360/.655, with 1 HR in 111 AB. While that is better than Posey’s current MLE of .216/.266/.338/.604, with 4 HR in 148 AB, I think you have to account for the fact that Posey is dealing with learning how to catch, all the details of that, while also learning how to hit in the pro ranks. Plus as jcb9 noted, Beckham’s BABIP appears to be accounting for much of the difference in OPS, if not more.
However, Posey, despite the HRs, has hit for a lot more groundballs than Beckham, thus less flyballs, and Beckham has hit a lot more linedrives. Wow, but when Buster does hit a linedrive, he’s almost invincible thus far, 17 for 19 with 1 HR. He’s also not bad when hitting flyballs, batting line of .382/.1.029 with OPS of 1.411! 5 HR in 34 AB suggests he is lucky so far, on average hitters flyballs go out for homers 10% of time, though each hitter has their own level, much like BABIP.
In addition, not sure how much park factors are included into above MLEs, but according to BP’s 2009 annual, Birmingham is a pitcher’s park, 932 (out of 1000) in 2008, 848 in 2007, while San Jose is an extreme pitcher’s park, with 874 in 2008, 873 in 2007. That could account for the difference between the two.
I would also note that Beckham take walks a bit more than Posey right now, relative to strikeouts, which is a positive for him relative to Posey. And while he has only 1 MLE HR, he has more doubles than Posey, so he could develop more HR power as he adjusts and develops.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
"He got his pitch; he did not miss it" - Cainer
"Kung Fu Panda don't get hurt" - Cainer
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 22, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I love me some Buster
Not so proud adoptive parent of the set-up man.
This is definitely not Howry do it!
This comparison is practically irrelevant without leagues and park factors. For example, how many of Buster’s HRs did he hit with a 30-MPH wind blowing out to LF at some pitcher’s hellhole like Lancaster? Until we get a better sense of that, I won’t get too excited. OK, a little excited. But not too excited.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
maybe that is why SF likes to send pitchers to Connecticut yet have some of the hitters bypass the league
Poor EME. He’s a Connecticut lifer. He could run for office against Mike Cervenak.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on May 27, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, like I said, I know it’s not really a fair comparison. But it’ll do for three minutes of research.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
IT'S NOT ENOUGH
I want a thorough and precise hand-written analysis on my desk by 5PM!!
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
Workin’ in a coal mine
Goin’ down down down
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
most of his hr haven’t come in such godforsaken places. Instead, most of the HR have come in relatively fair parks, in terms of the cal league.
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson
Anyone here prefer to have Smoak over Posey at this point?
don’t get me wrong, I’m glad we took Buster, and still can’t believe Smoak lasted until the 11th pick, but I can’t help but think that Smoak will have a longer career and hit for more power in the majors.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on May 22, 2009 4:00 PM PDT reply actions
Smoak looks like he could be a special hitter. I’m pretty happy with Posey, though.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
Given our situation, I think I’d rather have Smoak, if he really does hit for power in the majors. We have Pablo for catcher. We’re desperate for a 3B and a 1B with some power.
But I’m glad we at least got Posey instead of Tim Beckham.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
Buster or Smoak?
Either way you end up with “Hot! Hot! Hot!”
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Wow
Weeks looking good too
Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, or John Wall. A Warrior in 09.
With the 6th Pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, the SF Giants pick Donovan Tate.
Andre Smith in Silver & Black in 2009.
I wouldn’t get too excited about anything a college player does in 74 at bats in low A.
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 22, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions
BP
Here are a few MLEs from Baseball Prospectus: (In other words, apples-to-apples comparisons)
.273/.341/.455 Buster Posey
.197/.237/.347 Pedro Alvarez
.252/.287/.408 Yonder Alonso
.285/.370/.444 Justin Smoak
.276/.318/.447 Gordon Beckham
Smoak is the best hitter so far, but he also is playing the least-demanding position.
whoa that’s a sweet fucking MLE from Buster.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I wouldn’t get too omgwtfbbq about these, though. There are so many assumptions that go into minor-league translations that little differences can produce big discrepancies among the various systems.
by Dan from NM on May 22, 2009 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Assumption 1: This player will not play for a team that sucks all the ability out of its hitters
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
I think the Gigantic Ineptitude Adjustment Factor is built into the calculation.
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on May 23, 2009 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I should have called it the Giants Inevitable Aptitude Normalization Trend or something else that has a clever anagram and makes sense…
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on May 23, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
OMGWTFBBQ!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I’ll take that every season for 20 years, please!
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Wallace
His Double-A numbers are .231/.309/.366.
by Dan from NM on May 22, 2009 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Man that is an unattractive dude
He means the MLE for his AA numbers is that line.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
the best moment from the ESPN draft coverage; they are interviewing Wallace by phone a few minutes after he is picked and Karl Ravech says “now, you have a big lower half…”
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 23, 2009 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions
He looks like he should be in an emo band.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
Sadly, the Cardinals are not nearly as emo as our offense.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
.400 OBP in the Texas League don’t buy what it used to.
Haven't been to The Examined Life? No wonder your life feels so empty.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 22, 2009 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Crawford’s San Jose MLE:.266 .304 .413
and from Connecticut so far: .277 .306 .404
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
Best infielder on the Giants TODAY (taking defense into consideration).
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Brandon Crawford...
…is in AA and is a product of last year’s draft as well, I know this conversation is related to top picks, but that aside…considering his raw abilities and his current performance, I wonder if you asked a bunch of GM and aGm (“I’m the assistant to the Assistant GM in Tampa!”) off the record to choose straight up between G. Beckham and Crawford…I guess what I’m saying is maybe we have the equivalent of another top ten from the 08 draft in Crawford…Sorry for the rambling, I just got home from the Giants game (live outside Seattle) and my mind is fried by our awfulness.
Don't play a dangerous game.
I love Brandon Crawford, but 10 out of 10 GMs would take Gordon Beckham
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 23, 2009 1:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, there aren’t really many questions about Beckham’s bat, while it’s still just 2 hot months out of the last 2+years for Crawford.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
probably 11 out of 10
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou. "He has some bat speed and the ball comes off the bat pretty well" - K.Law.
by BrianBokake on May 26, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
By the way, I didn’t mention him, but Brian Matusz (the fourth pick) is looking pretty good, too. He didn’t debut until this year, but so far he has a 3.11 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, and 60 K vs. 17 BB in 46 2/3 innings in the Carolina League.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
Hmmm… the K rate is mighty fine, but it isn’t as if he is dominating, and he’s a college pitcher in high-A. Granted, not everyone is going to be Timmy or Timmy II or MadBum, but he was the 4th pick.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on May 27, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Hence “pretty good.”
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
Of course, in the subject line of this fanpost, I used “pretty good” as a deliberate understatement and I used it literally here. Consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, etc.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that pie > cake, that Bochy is endowed by his creator with certain undeniable traits, that among these are veteran man-love, a gigantic skull, and the pursuit of the double switch.
Adopted Giant: Fred Lewis, who can still draw a walk.
Buster Posey is hitting really good...
and not to mention, he’s a catcher.
by JackofAllTrades on May 24, 2009 3:23 PM PDT reply actions
But who is better between him and Carlos Santana?
I can’t believe how much Colletti gave up for Casey Blake haha.
All his solos sound the same
ohh… gotcha.
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou. "He has some bat speed and the ball comes off the bat pretty well" - K.Law.
by BrianBokake on May 26, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Smoak is for real
He’s playing just around the corner from me & I’ve seen 3 games so far. I’ve seen him crush a HR, hit an opposite field double and lace a line drive the opposite way with RISP. The guy knows what he’s doing at the plate.
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
"Nothing important ever happened without me."

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