Lincecum Pitch Values
by kenshin1 on May 20, 2009 11:46 AM PDT
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PrintWe all know Tim Lincecum is totally ridiculously awesome. He legitimately deserved his 2008 Cy Young and one can make a legitimate argument that his 2009 season has been better so far (1.85 FIP vs 2.62 FIP). However, have you ever wondered how Timmy is so good? Well, the best baseball website on the planet, fangraphs, has the answers for you. I present below the value of each pitch type per 100 pitches lincecum throws for 2008 and 2009 as well as the % of each pitch he throws.
Credit to Xanthan for posting a similar fanshot 2 hrs earlier than my post. I will keep mine up because I have a better format (and I spent 15 minutes on it)
|
Pitch Type |
2008 % Thrown |
2009 % Thrown |
|
Fastball |
66.1 |
60.3 |
|
Curveball |
13.7 |
18.4 |
|
Slider |
1.7 |
3.8 |
|
Changeup |
18.5 |
16.7 |
|
Pitch type |
2008 run value above average per 100 pitches |
2009 run value above average per 100 pitches |
|
Fastball |
1.11 |
-.38 |
|
Curveball |
1.25 |
1.84 |
|
Slider |
6.66 |
-1.13 |
|
Changeup |
1.23 |
4.59 |
NB: The 2009 values obviously have a relatively small sample size compared to 2008
1. For those of you wondering how the decreased velocity (about 2 mph) has effected Lincecum's success with his fastball, it has transformed it from a very good pitch to a below average one.
2. Ignore the slider. Lincecum throws far too few of them to glean anything from the above info (although he has increased the number he has thrown in 2009)
3. Lincecum Throws a lot of changeups. His changeup is awesome.
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nope...
the hair is what lets him pickup high school girls as he tools around mainstreet in his Camaro
Flossing a dead horse
too nerdy; didn't read
Haven't been to The Examined Life? No wonder your life feels so empty.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 20, 2009 11:53 AM PDT reply actions
But seriously, folks...
I thought he was throwing more curves this year, but I didn’t realize he was throwing so many less fastballs.
Haven't been to The Examined Life? No wonder your life feels so empty.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 20, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
looks like time to pimp (mixed with some buttkissing)
…the best baseball website on the planet, fangraphs….
3rd best
1) McC
2) Giantsboard.com
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Lincecum Throws a lot of changeups. His changeup is awesome.
Gotta love it, especially when he throws it back to back to back….
he’s the Anti-Nuke Laloosh
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Can any of you nerds answer/speculate on either of these questions:
1) Why has Lincecum lost a couple miles off his fastball? By choice (wants to transition from “thrower” to “pitcher” as Kruk might say), or is there something else going on, i.e., fatigue from being worked too much last season?
2) If his changeup is so effective, shouldn’t he be throwing it more, not less than he did last year?
"Are we bad? No. But right now, we are." Boulderskull, 4.16.09
1) I can’t imagine why he would want to thow his fastball slower. He was a good enough “pitcher” last year to win the Cy Young.
2) I’m wondering if the lost fastball speed would make his changeup a little less devastating.
by chilibean_3 on May 20, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
2) I’m wondering if the lost fastball speed would make his changeup a little less devastating.
According to the charts above, his changeup is much more devastating this year.
It looks like with the decreased fastball velocity, he’s getting more movement on the pitch, so that might be the goal.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
I just think it would be reasonable to believe that with the gap between fastball and changeup velocity closing, the changeup would lose some effect.
The charts don’t show it and it might not hurt the pitch at all but it is something I’ll be keeping on eye on for a bit.
by chilibean_3 on May 20, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed, and his success with the change this year could just be sample size issues. I don’t know how quickly these numbers stabilize.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
it's probably control
perhaps lincecum just feels he has much more control by throwing it a little slower. I’m hoping as time goes on he will get the feel back and resume his overwhelming dominance
by Giant Voodoo on May 20, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
1) Why has Lincecum lost a couple miles off his fastball?
Maybe throwing so many changeups. That’s supposedly what happened to Frank Viola — his change was so effective, he began to throw it more and more, which led to decreased velocity on his fastball. This, in turn, led to his changeup being less effective. I hope and pray this is not what’s happening to Lincecum — it’s still a small sample size, and I be surprised to see it effect him so much in such a short period of time.
2) If his changeup is so effective, shouldn’t he be throwing it more, not less than he did last year?
See above. If the fastball is slower, and Molina or the Giants Brass© think his growing reliance on his change is the culprit, they may be asking him to throw it less.
Of course, this is all total supposition. But this is a blog, so it’s right at home.
Haven't been to The Examined Life? No wonder your life feels so empty.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 20, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
That’s supposedly what happened to Frank Viola — his change was so effective, he began to throw it more and more, which led to decreased velocity on his fastball.
How?
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
I would guess that consistently throwing a 96-MPH fastball keeps your arm in pretty good condition, while consistently throwing an 85-MPH changeup keeps your arm in worse condition (not to say that the ability to throw a baseball 85 means you’re weak or anything…).
But training is all about consistency and intensity; you lower the intensity, even a little bit, and you’ll start to lose muscle mass, which makes it much harder to throw that hard again.
You throw the ball just as had on a change up and you do on a fastball. The grip is what reduces velocity.
On the run from Johnny Law, aint no trip to Cleveland, or San Francisco.
Exactly. Otherwise they wouldn’t be change ups, just slower fastballs. And it would be pretty easy for hitters to hit them.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
From my understanding, you throw a changeup with just as much force as a fastball, but because of the different grip you use different muscles to exert that force.
Haven't been to The Examined Life? No wonder your life feels so empty.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 20, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Possible explanations
Possible explanations for Tim’s dip of 2 mph on his fastball this season are:
. All those pitches last season did indeed take something out of his arm.
. His lost weight due to the illnesses he suffered this spring has cost him some speed.
. He is searching for better control (and, indeed, his walks are down).
. Taking a little off his fastball further equalizes his arm speed between the fastball and his secondary pitches, making them even harder to pick up.
. Tim’s heavier off-season schedule could have meant he wasn’t able to do as much as usual of his routines to improve the strength and flexibility of his core.
. His timing is still slightly off, costing him velocity.
. Tim has sacrificed velocity in an effort to pitch more complete games.
. Tim isn’t worried about the velocity of his fastball, since he is using it mostly to set up his secondary pitches, anyway.
. Even Tim has little idea what the cause is.
TIm’s strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, and his home run rate is WAY down. His bases allowed per hit are down. His FIP is way down. His strand percentage is down.
His line drives are up, his BABIP against is up, his average against is up. His ERA is up. His WHIP is up.
His infield fly ball (popup) percentage and infield hit percentage have both mushroomed. The former helps, of course, and has contributed to his lower home run rate. That latter hurts and has contributed to the high BABIP against.
It appears opponents are barreling up the fastball better this season, although not with a noticeable power increase. It also appears that a higher than usual number of ground balls are getting through, although my feelings there might be prejudiced by the high number that found holes late in his last start.
Batters are swinging at more balls and fewer strikes — but are making more contact with each type of pitch than last season. Tim has thrown fewer pitches in the zone, and has a clearly lower first-strike percentage.
What does it all mean? I’ll let you know if I figure it out. There are indications Tim is pitching better this season and that he is pitching worse. One thing I can find nothing to indicate, though, is that his ERA should be 50% higher than last season.
. All those pitches last season did indeed take something out of his arm.
I choose you, stupid pitching management!
You Are Blinded By Your Anti-Sabean And Anti-Bochy Bias
There is nothing wrong with the way the Giants used Tim Lincecum. If their was, the Giants would not have used him that way. Because they did use him that way, they’re is nothing wrong with it.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
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If you throw a changeup with the same amount of force as a fastball, would that mean that the “lost” mph ends up as force on your arm and body? That sounds somewhat plausible, especially since I’ve heard changeups are more stressful on the arm than fastballs. Thus, throwing lots of changeups might hurt your arm? Maybe?
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
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No idea. I just remember that’s what he and the Mets attributed his decreasing fastball velocity to. Maybe they were lying. Or playing an elaborate prank. Or smoking crack.
Haven't been to The Examined Life? No wonder your life feels so empty.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 20, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure Viola lost his fastball because the Mets lacked leadership.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
I’ll believe that when Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips tell me to, thank you very much.
Haven't been to The Examined Life? No wonder your life feels so empty.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 20, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
You actually hear that somewhat frequently about guys who’s major out pitch is the changeup. Trevor Hoffman was an extreme example that they used to talk about. I think Johan’s lost a few MPH, too.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
On the other hand, there’s no discounting the affects of his first long, full major league season. Look at the ups and downs of Justin Verlander’s velocity the last three years.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Has anyone noticed
Tim might still growing…
His face has matured dramatically from when he was called up,
this is especially noticeable when you look at his chin and jaw
Could be his whole body is still growing?
This could throw your mechanics off as you grow, right?
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I’ve realized the same thing, his face has really changed.
Perhaps he is growing and losing flexibility as well?
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Kevin Frandsen, back with the big team!
/me pulls Xanthan’s power cord
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
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ok so, I'm not crazy
If true, I wouldn’t worry….once he stops growing he should be able to adjust….
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
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Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!
completely unscientific proof
completely unscientific proof
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!
Got his overbite fixed
Got his teeth worked on. Always makes your face look different!
by SF Bay Area on Jun 10, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Left : “Hey , this is easy!”
Right: “Jeez , this sucks.”
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on May 21, 2009 12:00 AM PDT reply actions
unknown malady
I think he is probably trying to throw less pitches per inning if possible by having slightly better control and if his 93 mPH fastball is effective early in the count he can go to the change up or the 97 mph fastball at the opportune time. But sometimes I think he has a hitter set up for a 97 MPH paralysis fastball on the outside corner and he just does not seem to have it. A few years ago i was playing in a semi-pro Tennis league, and all of the sudden my serve speed dropped a few MPH. I felt fine, I never could figure out why. I was shown pictures broken down by the millisecond, and could find no difference. It took almost a year and suddenly for no reason, the speed came back. No explanation, no idea. Maybe LIncecum is ok, and it will just come back.
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