Matt Cain: 2nd Most Overrated Pitcher in Baseball

Matt Cain is rated.

"Are we bad? No. But right now, we are." Boulderskull, 4.16.09

by Kitspool on May 13, 2009 9:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Lazy analysis is lazy…

But the Giants also play in a stadium that’s friendly to fly ball pitchers, and Cain’s definitely a fly ball pitcher, meaning he’s also lucky in some regards.

Cain is a fly ball pitcher and he plays in a fly ball park so he is one lucky guy! Nevermind that his home and away splits aren’t really all that different.

by Lars The Wanderer on May 13, 2009 9:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You're going to compare one pitcher's home and away splits and call me lazy?

Read that with a winky face.

I realize different parks affect different pitchers differently and one overall park factor can be misleading. But you need to detect those differences with specific data, like L/R park factors, or an analysis of how far Cain’s fly balls travel compared to home and road fences. Just using splits will hide a lot of stuff. For example, how do we know the even splits can’t be explained by Cain pitching better on the road than at home, but the park hides that?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No problem...just poking ya with the silly stick

Although, you were the one that mentioned AT&T as a factor with regard to Cain’s performance. You then followed up with a sentence about career HR rate at home.

But you need to detect those differences with specific data, like L/R park factors, or an analysis of how far Cain’s fly balls travel compared to home and road fences. Just using splits will hide a lot of stuff. For example, how do we know the even splits can’t be explained by Cain pitching better on the road than at home, but the park hides that?

In a nutshell, it sounds like you need to take your own advice. =)

by Lars The Wanderer on May 13, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

analysis of how far Cain’s fly balls travel compared to home and road fences.

You’re treating baseball like a friggin videogame. Analyzing how far his fly balls travel at home and on the road? This seems ridiculous to me

Wall-E for Best Picture 2008
McCC = McClain Chronicles

by Useful_Idiot on May 14, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

And that’s not quite what I meant. I meant see how far his fly balls go everywhere. And then see in how many parks they would be home runs.

hittrackeronline.com

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 14, 2009 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course, they’re also ignoring the fact that Cain has in the past had poor K/BB ratios in April/May and improves as the year goes on.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 9:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Okay, I read the comments and I guess he kind of acknowledged it. Still, I think taking Cain’s current K/BB ratio and assuming it’s going to stay that way all year is a bit off. In his career, he’s improved month by month on that level. And he points out that the trend wasn’t true in 2008, but other than April and August, his K/BB was over 2 every month of 08.

Whatever, I feel like people have been talking shit about Matt Cain in every way forever and making him out to be something he isn’t (on both sides of the coin) when what he is (110-120 ERA+ pitcher who pitches over 200 innings a year) is pretty fucking good. I just feel like you’ve got the non-statheads getting on him for lack of WINZ and the statheads getting on him for the flyball tendencies and the low HR rates and it’s like.. good god, he’s not Tim Lincecum but that’s nothing to be ashamed of.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m just really defensive about Matt Cain.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, he doesn’t need to maintain a 2.00 to be friggin awesome. The guy even admits that a high 3 ERA is the OMG DOOMSDAY scenario.

Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...

by rotorueter on May 13, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Preach it. He’s an above-average starter that throws 200+ innings a year. That’s very valuable (+3-4 wins per year). I don’t think that BtB was necessarily saying that he’s bad, just that he’s outperforming his ERA.

I do totally agree that NO SWING THROUGH STUFF and WINZ! are pretty annoying when talking about Cain. And the over expectations of what he should be. I think a lot of it stems from the fact that Cain was one of the first young Giants to come up in recent times to be actually any good. So a lot of people probably pinned a lot of unrealistic hopes on him.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on May 13, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clumsy sentence is clumsy.

Edit:

I don’t think that BtB was necessarily saying that he’s bad, just that he’s outperforming his FIP/TRA in regards to his ERA .

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on May 13, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Swing Through Stuff

Cain talked about it in a recent (today?) article about Zito. Cain talks about how one of the biggest transformation for Zito is that he is pitching for contact now instead of trying to miss bats. One can inferred that he also learned the same thing since his rookie season (omg walks) and is trying to be a pitcher, not just a flame thrower.

by jctGamer on May 13, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn, I was hoping Cain had abandoned the pitching to contact thing. :(

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope it’s one of those things that players / management say but really don’t have any basis in reality.

IE: FRED IS GOING TO BE MO AGGRESSIVE (though he is striking out more this year)

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on May 13, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the Giants really seem to believe in that crap

Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.

by oldjacket on May 13, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So we aren’t actually going to the rule world with speed and defense?

Fun Fact: The Giants were the worst team in the majors in ’08 in regards to base running.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on May 13, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm.

I thought they believed in their pitchers nibbling and not throwing strikes, while hitters are aggressive to the point of brain death.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on May 14, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the quote

“That comes with trusting that you are going to take care of your job at the park,” Zito said. “I’m all business in here, but when you get away, you get away.”

Matt Cain, who has followed Zito closely since he first came to the Giants, said he can see Zito with a new attitude.

“He seems more relaxed,” Cain said. “He’s not worried about anything, not worried about living up to anything. He’s just going out and pitching, and he’s doing a great job of it.”

Cain added that it’s clear Zito is “pitching like he wants contact. He wants the guy to hit the ball. He’s not trying to miss bats. That’s when you pitch the wrong way. He’s letting it all hang out. That’s huge for him.”

by jctGamer on May 13, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zito has been doing this (allegedly) and he dropped his walk rate down by 2 while maintaining a K-rate of about 6… while Cain’s been allegedly doing this, he rose his walk rate by 1 and dropped his K-rate by about 1. The first is a recipe for success, the second – not so much.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the other hand

Cain has been a lot more consistent so far this year than in previous years, IIRC. He always seemed to have wildly bad starts sprinkled among the good-to-great ones. Last night ended up being about as bad as it’s gotten this year for Cain, and it wasn’t that bad, especially considering the lineup he faced.

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on May 13, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In terms of runs allowed, yes, but he’s been a bit uneven with his component stats, which is a concern, but one I’m confident he’ll fix.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any fans have scouting info on Zito?

Pitching to contact sounds nice, and it’s backed up by his lower BB rate. K rate has held steady this year. He’s giving up fewer HR, which is a combination of more GBs (so says Fangraphs) and a lower HR/FB rate, which doesn’t seem sustainable, at least to his current 4.9% degree. FIP is at 4.01, and that’s using the low HR rate.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Although, I guess for Zito becoming a 4.00 to 4.50 ERA guy would be a big deal.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I for one, would be happy if he turned into Doug Davis.

Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.

by oldjacket on May 13, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

His velocity is up and his control/command have been a lot better. I haven’t watched any games yet (less than one week to go!) but people on MCC have been talking about his curveball having more bite to it this year. I don’t think anyone’s expecting him to return to his early 2000s form but, yeah, at this point, we’ll take a 95-105 ERA+ and gladly.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My informal scouting report is that he’s nibbling less. He seems to be able to use the high fastball without it getting creamed this year. It seems to be inducing more pop-ups and less terror in me.

Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.

by oldjacket on May 13, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, like I said, it’s kind of an overreaction to the sort of things that get said about Cain a lot in both circles of thought. And I do think there’s been a sort of low-key stathead meme that Cain isn’t really all that good because flyball pitcher/high walk rate/XFIP/DINGERZ. It’s not huge or anything but it feels like an undercurrent whenever I read something written by someone from the sabermetric community about him and, man, a lot of it probably has to do with the park, but he’s bucked the trend for awhile now and he’s proven himself to be pretty useful.

And hey, I’m his adoptive parent, I need to be a bit overdefensive of him, right?

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just to clarify, he's rated second because...

His ERA-FIP shows the second largest disparity of anyone with at least 25 innings as of Monday morning. The commentary is an explanation for the disparity. A 2.61 ERA just isn’t a good summary of how he’s pitched so far. You’d agree he’s likely a 3.75 to 4.00 ERA guy going forward, right? If so, we’re on the same page.

Please continue to bring on the specific data for Cain or other pitchers, that’s what makes things interesting.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 9:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey, I’m sorry to go off on you a bit, it wasn’t you so much as it’s just a general reaction to people ragging on Cain. I understand the point of the article and why Cain’s on it. I agree he’s not as good as he’s pitched this year… though I’m going to be a fan and be optimistic and expect him to finish in the 3.5-3.75 range in terms of ERA. :)

It just seems like people have been pointing to his component stats (usually xFIP because yeah, those career HR rates are going to bite you in the ass in terms of xFIP) since 2006 as proof that he’s not actually very good, overrated, third starter at best, etc and sort of missing that, well, no, he’s not really an ace and he’s not going to be a HoFer or anything (not unless he fixes the command issues, which I think is still a possibility, but I’d be surprised) but he is very valuable.

And I do think his K/BB ratio will improve as the year goes on.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I hear you. People often confuse "isn't as good as you think" with "isn't good". It's annoying.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you look at Cain’s numbers throughout his career, you’ll notice that his FIP is significantly higher than it should be. So I guess I agree that the ERA is probably lower than it will be going forward, but the FIP is also much higher. A 3.50 ERA for the rest of the year wouldn’t be outlandish.

by Missing Barry on May 13, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cain’s FIP has been fine, his xFIP is always a bunch higher because it normalizes HR rate.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on May 13, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weren't you going to do that long-awaited study about properly regressing HR/FB rate?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One of these days! I still read BtB almost daily, I miss j00 guys.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on May 13, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

/suspects xanthan was fired from Beyond the Boxscore because he was looking up porn at work

by Grant on May 13, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fired because he wasn't.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

... all that.

Also, too much emotion

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on May 14, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What do you mean normalizes HR rate. His FIP so far this season is 4.83 compared to a 3.00 ERA, so there’s a huge difference there – his HR’s are up, walks are up and K’s are down compared to the last few years.

by Missing Barry on May 13, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was responding to this:

If you look at Cain’s numbers throughout his career, you’ll notice that his FIP is significantly higher than it should be.

That’s not really true. For most of Cain’s career his FIP and ERA have been very close. xFIP normalizes the HR rate for a pitcher — meaning that everyone gets the same rate HR rate. Cain has usually posted better than average HR rates in his career. FIP doesn’t normalize HR rate, so he usually looks better by FIP standards and not xFIP since it’s penalizing Cain more for giving up a bunch of FB’s.

His FIP so far this season is 4.83 compared to a 3.00 ERA, so there’s a huge difference there – his HR’s are up, walks are up and K’s are down compared to the last few years.

You kind of answered your own question here. It’s a huge difference because of his decreased K’s, more HR’s and walks. Those are all things that FIP takes into account.

FIP is

Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on May 13, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When you say everyone gets the same HR rate, do you mean everyone gets a HR rate based on their FB%?

I know the rest of it, what I’m saying is based on what Cain has done in the past, it’s reasonable to expect his K’s to go up, BB’s down, and HR’s down for the rest of the season, producing a much lower FIP. Fangraph’s updated ZIPS have Cain at a 3.78 FIP for the rest of the season, so the point is if you’re making the argument his ERA should regress to his FIP, you need to keep in mind his FIP will likely regress to a “true skill level” much better than what it has been so far this season.

by Missing Barry on May 13, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Everyone gets the same HR/FB rate

So pitchers with high FB rates will be given more home runs under xFIP.

Regressing HR/FB is smart, although it shoudn’t be done 100% like BABIP (which really should be like 90%). But accounting for FB% and regressed HR/FB is better than straight HR/9.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is the HR/FB rate it’s regressed to? Is it league average – so it’s never static, or is it some static number? When looking at a player like Cain who plays in a home park that reduces HR/FB, should we think less of him for his performance given that all told, AT&T is pretty much a neutral environment?

by Missing Barry on May 13, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, HR/FB is regressed to league average, which is something like 11%, give or take.

How you adjust a player’s stats based on his ballpark depends on what question you’re trying to answer.

If you’re the GM of the Mariners and want to sign Cain, you need to adjust every specific little thing from one park to another. You see how far Cain’s fly balls tend to travel in each direction and map it out over your own ballpark, for example. And that gets complicated when you consider Cain’s probably pitching to his park somewhat.

If you’re trying to calculate past value, for an MVP or Cy Young award, say, then I think you don’t apply specific park factors (L/R homeruns, for example) and just use an overall runs park factor. Why? Because if Cain takes advantage of AT&T more than the average pitcher or Wade Boggs takes advantage of the green monster more than the average hitter, that’s real production and real extra wins for their teams.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We need to be careful, though, to make a distinction between Fantasy and real life. This guy is advocating that fantasy owners sell high on Matt Cain, because he his ERA is amongst the best in baseball, instead of being merely very good. He isn’t trashing Cain as a major league pitcher.

Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...

by rotorueter on May 13, 2009 9:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think that was fantasy related….

by jctGamer on May 13, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's no fine line.

Definitely applicable to fantasy, but more generally for anyone who judges pitchers by ERA.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but how many of those people read BtB?

Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl

by Viliphied on May 13, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heck, I look at ERA a lot (maybe because it's so prevalent?) and I wrote the thing ;)

ERA’s everywhere. You have to take the time to look up FIP or tRA, even if you know it’s what you should care about.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah

I took your “judges pitchers by ERA” to mean “judges pitchers solely by ERA and WINZ!”

Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl

by Viliphied on May 13, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've enjoyed reading "WINZ" in this thread. I'm going to use it going forward.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

DINGERZ

Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.

by oldjacket on May 13, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You'll find that we've got a unique little clique going here

Lots of fun memes over the years.

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on May 13, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

His ERA will probably go up, but so will his K:BB.

Really his walk rate is the product of a couple of flukey innings.

Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.

by oldjacket on May 13, 2009 9:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Also re: the ballpark issue.

Is a right-handed pull-hitter less valuable if he plays in Fenway, or his he just well-adapted to his environment?

Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.

by oldjacket on May 13, 2009 10:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

There have been arguments about guys like Rice, Boggs, etc about whether or not they would have been HoFers if they didn’t play in baseball. I don’t think it’s fair to penalize a player for taking advantage of his home environment though.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh, *if they didn’t play in Fenway.

I would imagine they wouldn’t have been HoFers if they didn’t play in baseball.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL fo realz

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on May 13, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s not fair to totally write them off, but park adjust the numbers and see where you stand.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on May 13, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don’t, however, take their road stats and hold them up as proof of what they’ll hit if they don’t play in that park anymore.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

I just neutralized Wade Bogg’s career stats to a 750 run environment and his OPS went up.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The default neutralization also ups his OPS.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jim Rice, however, loses about 20 points :(

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I hate using splits like that.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on May 13, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol OGC

GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.

by groug on May 13, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m a little more okay with using that to assess a guy’s overall career.

But if I were the Giants, I would want a whole pitching staff full of flyball-strikeout pitchers. They really are more valuable then other pitchers while the Giants play where they do.

Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.

by oldjacket on May 13, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Especially at the moment, when we have a pretty good defensive outfield and a pretty not mediocre defensive infield.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

that’s what I mean. Luck =/= operating in circumstances conducive to success. The Giants FO (despite other failings) has made Matt Cain’s “luck”.

Come to think of it, they’ve also made his bad luck (poor run support).

Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.

by oldjacket on May 13, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, there’s a certain confidence-building factor at work. Perhaps Cain has been “lucky” early in his career with home runs, but that’s the sort of thing that can teach a pitcher to trust his stuff.

by Evan on May 13, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The story of Matt Cain is really quite amusing. For years, while pitching very well, he was considered a “bad pitcher” just because he didn’t have the sparkly W-L record that other “good pitchers” tended to have. Now that he’s pitching very well and is starting to get the run support to aid in his W-L record, people are starting to call him overrated. The poor guy can’t catch a break.

by deuce deuce on May 13, 2009 10:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

And yet he's still good

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on May 13, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah, he sucks.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on May 13, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

FIELDAR FOR KANE!!!!

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

by baetown415 on May 13, 2009 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice consolation prize. That, and being a big leaguer on a winning team making millions of dollars.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on May 13, 2009 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can’t imagine he’s listening to people calling him a bad pitcher at this point.

Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou. "He has some bat speed and the ball comes off the bat pretty well" - K.Law.

by BrianBokake on May 13, 2009 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Overrated, underrated, second, third, fourth starter at best….it doesn’t matter. I want Matt Cain on the hill for my team..

by Norm Median on May 15, 2009 1:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I realize the ATT is a "pitchers park" but...

Do they take into account the really small foul ball area? Pitchers at ATT get very little help in the pop foul department.

by Sigualicious on May 15, 2009 10:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yup, "they" do.

It’s actually not that much of a pitchers’ park overall, perhaps because of the foul ball issue.

Now, the outfield fence definitely helps prevent home runs, helping fly ball pitchers (again, you’d need a more detailed study to see if it’s all fly ball pitchers or some more than others), but I wonder if I and others aren’t giving back enough credit to fly ball pitchers because they can’t take advantage of foul territory as much. Might be worth tracking down some “batting average on fly balls that don’t leave the park” park factors.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 16, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It isn't really a pitcher's park.

But is suppresses home runs pretty well, especially for left handers, and lost bombs tend to stick in a hitter’s mind (and cut in to his future earnings).