Randy Johnson's Gopherball Struggles
by Grant on May 12, 2009 12:32 PM PDT
82 comments
If any of you are familiar with Baseball Mogul, you might know that some of the best values in the game are with Hall-of-Fame pitchers at the end of their careers. They don’t require huge contracts, and they’re easier to predict than the young pitchers. There were always a couple scenarios that would drive me nuts, though. It’d be 2050, and O'Conner Pitcherguy would be entering his age-42 season with a career ERA of 3.50 and a K/9 that’s consistently over 9.0. Then his career would fall apart, but not in the traditional way. He’d still strike out a ton of hitters, he’d still have the plus stuff, but all of a sudden he’d be averaging 50 homers for every 200 innings pitched.
This would frustrate me. I’d think, man, that’s not how pitchers go away. They succumb to nagging injuries, major injuries, or a complete collapse of their arsenal. They don’t just become magically gopher-prone.
Whoops.
Randy Johnson has the sixth-best strikeout rate among NL starters. His slider is just goofy good – it breaks down righties and lefties alike. His fastball is anywhere from 88-90, which is pretty good for a lefty, but he’s also releasing the ball a few inches closer to the plate than most pitchers. That might not read like much, but anything that shaves the milliseconds off a hitter’s potential reaction time makes a difference. With the exception of the two games in which Johnson couldn’t find the plate, there’s no question that Johnson is one of the most talented members of a talented staff, even at his advanced age.
And yet he’s tied with dooky-throwers like Jaime Moyer and Bronson Arroyo at the top of the home runs allowed list with ten. Seven starts, ten home runs.
Because Johnson is one of baseball history’s great outlier’s, there isn’t a good, pat answer. Maybe hitters know they can’t hit the slider, so they sit on a fastball, or a slider that hangs. The all-or-nothing approach might lead to a ton of whiffs, but it might also lead to more homers on the pitches the hitters make contact with. Maybe his fastball is good enough to complement his slider, but the extra dingerz are part of the reduced velocity package now. Maybe his spotty control thus far has made him groove more pitches than he’s ever had to in his life.
Or maybe, just maybe, we’re reading too much into 36 innings. Twenty-seven percent of the fly balls he's allowed are leaving the park, which is a crazy number. That screams "fluke." But the number of first-pitch strikes he’s throwing is down from last year, which lends support to the spotty-control-and-pitch-groove theory. "Spotty Control and Pitch Groove" was also a great Bootsy Collins solo project, which should count for something.
I’m not worried. Old-timers do tend to fall apart quickly, but it shouldn’t happen like this. If the swing-throughs are still there, the success should still be there (at least in part). He’s fun to watch, and once he gets a handle on the homers and the walks, he’ll be a top-tier pitcher. You know, just like every pitching prospect that’s ever come through the organization – once the walks and hittable pitches stop, the magic can truly begin!
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Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!
by merkin on May 12, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pie !
"One percent of ballplayers are leaders of men. The other ninety-nine percent are followers of women."-John McGraw, NY Giants Baseball Club
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
by nvsfg on May 12, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Donuts!
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
"Nothing important ever happened without me."
by ResDog on May 12, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mmmmm..Donuts
"One percent of ballplayers are leaders of men. The other ninety-nine percent are followers of women."-John McGraw, NY Giants Baseball Club
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
by nvsfg on May 12, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not worried
Yeah, 27% for a HR/FB rate is pretty absurd. I looked back over the past 4-5 seasons and the pitchers with the highest HF/FB’s tended to be between 15-18%.
The above is what Xanthan posted in the post-game thread. I agree with him. (which probably means he is wrong!)
by Lars The Wanderer on May 12, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"Spotty Control and Pitch Groove"
I never get tired of old band references. Or made up jibes.
"[Greg] Vaughn is in a funk so deep, George Clinton wearing a miner's helmet couldn't find him."
- Jim Baker, ESPN.com, May 2002
by achiappanza on May 12, 2009 12:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I literall could not be less worried
the guy is a monster, but he’s also 45. i was expecting dominance splashed with some struggling. I think that HR/FB number will normalize.
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 12:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
LiterallY even
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The guy is literally a monster.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, coming soon to a minor league near you.
by EliminateMe on May 12, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if you were high?
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
by Cookyman on May 12, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I was high
I’d probably be a LOT more worried, just not about baseball
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post on RJ at fangraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/week-six-trade-possibilities
Read the first comment
by superk1ng on May 12, 2009 12:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I was hoping the first comment would be “FIRsT!!”
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
by kennv on May 12, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm paraphrasing from memory here...
On the radio this morning, Kuip theorized that the high HR total might be because Johnson’s trying to focus more on throwing strikes and staying in the zone to help keep down his high pitch counts—which, along with walks, is what has knocked him out of games early this year. He didn’t walk anyone last night. Not like he likes the gopher balls, but maybe they’re a decent trade off for constantly putting men on base.
"Are we bad? No. But right now, we are." Boulderskull, 4.16.09
by Kitspool on May 12, 2009 12:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking of Kuip’s comments on the radio this morning while reading this post too.
What are we realistically expecting to get from RJ? He is a one year guy who is 45. He is a feel good story of a Bay Area kid done good, who comes back for his twilight tour and to collect his milestone. We are still rebuilding and if he gets us 10 wins I think we would all be very excited wouldn’t we? Especially from the perspective of where thought we were leaving Spring Training.
by toofruss on May 12, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he’ll end up around a 4.25-4.5 ERA, about average (with flashes of brilliance in specific starts). I’d be ok with that.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on May 12, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He needs to be better than Kevin Correia
there, I said it.
by jctGamer on May 12, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still...
the guy’s not going to be dominant until he’s 50. Even if the ERA comes down and the strikeouts stay up, I am worried about his control. After watching him in the early part of the decade, I really have to consider even the “fluke” HRs we’re seeing as the “beginning of the end.” This just wasn’t an issue for him when he was younger, and he’ll become more vulnerable to these problems as he loses more velocity over time. I say he’s got at least another year or two left in him, though.
by angryseals on May 12, 2009 1:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s not his fault he doesn’t get to face the Giants anymore.
by Bay Area Sports Guy on May 12, 2009 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wish I were joking...
Last year Johnson gave up 1 HR to the Giants over 26 innings. And even that 1 homer shouldn’t really count against him since it was hit by Randy Winn at Arizona. Can’t blame The Unit for that.
by Bay Area Sports Guy on May 12, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there are entire pitching staffs that have only given up 1 HR to the Giants last year.
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on May 12, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I heard Ron Wotus only gave up 1 HR in batting practice last year.
by Bay Area Sports Guy on May 12, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno about that
According to Kruk, every Giants player has a great BP session every game.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
by groug on May 12, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially pitchers!
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's our problem
Our pitchers should be the ones hitting.
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on May 12, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
HEY BRASS TRADE FOR MYCUH OWEENGS!!!
by Bay Area Sports Guy on May 12, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only if they can hit against each other.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
by groug on May 12, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Upcoming BP can be referred to as spotty control.
by chilibean_3 on May 12, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted "the ugly"
Assuming it had to do with Johnson’s facial features.
Not so proud adoptive parent of the set-up man.
This is definitely not Howry do it!
by CB30 on May 12, 2009 1:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t get it
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
"Nothing important ever happened without me."
by ResDog on May 12, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I must say, it’s certainly nice to have a pitching staff on which Randy Johnson is the biggest concern.
Right now Jon Miller is somewhere wearing a flamboyant tie and thinking about me.
by Norm Median on May 12, 2009 2:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Personally
I’m more worried about Sanchez. It sure would be nice if the dude could get some control and consistency.
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s a fluke. I’m ANNOYED, but not worried. Going forward he should be great.
Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.
by MonkeyChow on May 12, 2009 2:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not worried. I am more worried about Sanchez’ inconsistency. And that means its a good year if that’s what I am worried about in our pitching staff.
by scout6 on May 12, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I really should read before I post
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not worried at all. I would be more worried about his control or something, but I think he’ll get that in order as well.
by xanthan on May 12, 2009 2:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pick 5 great pitchers who eventually broke down near the end of their careers, and look at their numbers in their last few years. They were all losing the ability to strike people out. That’s what happens when pitchers break down. Johnson is striking out over a batter an inning. The last time he was doing this was in 2004, when he had one the best pitching seasons the game has ever seen. I’m really not worried at all.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
by Cookyman on May 12, 2009 3:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Lineup
2B Burriss
SS Renteria
3B Sandoval
C Molina
LF Winn
CF Rowand
1B Ishikawa
RF Schierholtz
P Cain
Winn to LF and LOLewis riding the pine.
by Lars The Wanderer on May 12, 2009 4:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
allegedly
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
card carrying Bochy Hatter
by natteringnabob on May 12, 2009 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
interesting that Lewis gets the night off. Any reason other than he’s been struggling?
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nate needs playing time, and Fred started the last 9 games.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, coming soon to a minor league near you.
by EliminateMe on May 12, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sore foot
Not the one that had the operation.
by bleacherbob on May 12, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OOTP is better than Mogul.
That’s all I have to say, really. :)
We don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks. - Calvin
by solace on May 12, 2009 4:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yes but
baseball mogul online was the BEST. i was addicted to that shiznit 24/7. my ootp league isnt as fun. too bad bmonline got cancelled. supposedly someone is buying it and reopening it, cant wait for that.
by projectmayhem713 on May 12, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that a solo league or online?
I’ve never tried online, I keep going fictional historical and enjoy that a lot.
I was invited to join a league, but felt that I couldn’t put in the time.
We don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks. - Calvin
by solace on May 12, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OT
but WTF this week’s House? They always end their seasons with the craziest stuff
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 4:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I haven't watched it yet
No spoilers please.
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on May 12, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No spoilers here
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on May 12, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Foreman shot J.R.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
by Cookyman on May 12, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
NOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on May 12, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Snape killed Trinity with Rosebud
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
by Viliphied on May 12, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
House defeated Misty by using an electric type.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They were going for a … wait for it … shocking ending!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That just makes my Bulbasaur!
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on May 12, 2009 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sayid killed Chase with the library with a pipe.
Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ
by Zetsuboushita on May 12, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
*in the library
Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ
by Zetsuboushita on May 12, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like it better the first way.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
After thinking he could stay away, House ends up boning a Vicodin bottle. It’s a love story.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
by groug on May 12, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Pat Misch sneezed on him.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 6:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
BTW, this would have seemed even more clever if I’d actually been able to post it when I thought of it, before Misch’s call-up got announced.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doubtful
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on May 12, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doubtful like you.
/pouts.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More clever than what?
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, coming soon to a minor league near you.
by EliminateMe on May 12, 2009 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More clever than you.
/pouts.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well that’s not saying much.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, coming soon to a minor league near you.
by EliminateMe on May 12, 2009 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers down 5-2 in the bottom of the 7th in Philadelphia.
Jayson Werth just straight stole home.
Happy Pete is 0-0 for 4 walks.
by non sequitur on May 12, 2009 6:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
WHAT THE FUCK IS HAPPENING
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Still with jokes. Now with updates.
by groug on May 12, 2009 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That park is a bandbox. You could practically walk four times on a popup to the catcher.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait. I think I did that wrong.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LET’S GO PHILLIES
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on May 12, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the HR's will go down eventually
But he’s throwing way too many balls in the middle of the strike zone.
I’m not overly worried though.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
by baetown415 on May 12, 2009 6:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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