Giants are NL's Luckiest Team
Given the performance of the offense relative to the record, I think on we all recognize this on some level. Interestingly, tonight's opponent, the Nationals, have been the NL's unluckiest. Let's hope mean-reversion holds off for at least one more series.
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wouldn’t those few 10+ run outliers have a large impact considering the relatively small amount of games we’ve played?
by kingofthacove on May 11, 2009 5:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There’s a lot of talk about team’s BABiP.. Wouldn’t you think some teams defensively would be under 300 while other’s over just because they have better defense?
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
by Azmanz on May 11, 2009 5:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We’re the second worst team in the NL by expected performance, huh?
SUCK IT, ASTROS
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by groug on May 11, 2009 5:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
wait, wouldn’t a 3 game swing make us 1-2 games under .500? the horror!!
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PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on May 11, 2009 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously like every other bad team in the NL is supposed to be 1 game under .500
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by groug on May 11, 2009 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's better to be lucky than good...
though it would help to be lucky and also good.
Formerly Revolution1 || Status: Worried that Giants are going to sell my wall of Ks to Johnsonville Sausages || Barry Zito: Throws Canyons Mildly Half-OK
by GiantBrass on May 11, 2009 6:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This is why games are not played on paper
It is played on platpanel television screens
by jctGamer on May 11, 2009 6:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
PLATPANEL!!
TELEVISION FOR DUCK BILLED PLATYPUS!
by Lars The Wanderer on May 11, 2009 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Way to go, Matos. Without that 3-run homer, our Pythagorean projection would be a third of a win better. I hope you’re proud of yourself. Good day.
I Said Good Day.
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by groug on May 11, 2009 11:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wait, so thats how this works?
A blowout in one game can effect what our projection is? God is that dumb.
Formerly Revolution1 || Status: Worried that Giants are going to sell my wall of Ks to Johnsonville Sausages || Barry Zito: Throws Canyons Mildly Half-OK
by GiantBrass on May 11, 2009 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t it a pretty simple formula? Like (Runs Scored)/(Runs Against + Runs Scored)
Brandon Crawford: Your 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
by Azmanz on May 12, 2009 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't winning by a blowout imply the team is better than if they win by a couple runs?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 12, 2009 5:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Statistical data does have an effect on statistical models.
Just because it’s an outlier doesn’t mean that it’s without validity. But understanding the context and realizing the existence of the outliers helps to shed light on the limits of the formula.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2009 7:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would have went with
Your mother’s dumb!
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
"Nothing important ever happened without me."
by ResDog on May 12, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to Small Sample Size theater!
A blowout in one game can effect what our projection is? God is that dumb.
Right now stats for the season will show who is hottest, who is coldest, and who (if a veteran) might be currently performing outside their career norms. All served with a huge side of head scratching chuckles.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 12, 2009 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s something like (Runs Scored)^1.8/(Runs Against + Runs Scored)^1.8
There’s definitely some number between 1.5 and 2 that they’re taken to the power of.
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by groug on May 12, 2009 1:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
reply fail
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by groug on May 12, 2009 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You should just leave before you screw things up again.
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on May 12, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just realized
it’s mid May and 3/8ths of the Giants starting lineup still doesn’t have a home run. Bengie molina accounts for almost half our homers. that can’t be good.
by Change Up on May 12, 2009 1:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that must make us the NL’s luckiest fans!
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on May 12, 2009 8:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Now say that with a drawl.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 12, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah
SSS applies. We’ve been blown out in a few games and then hung tight in the rest. That is gonna skew the pythag a lot when there are so few games to consider.
I’ve never been a huge fan of Pythags. I think it is a little too simplistic to be hugely accurate.
And I know that it is in general pretty accurate, but it often misses hugely in specific cases.
by FairweatherFan on May 12, 2009 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The one thing I like about it is as thumb nail estimate to a team’s overall 25 man roster talent level compared to its division mates over a good stretch of time (say ¾ a season -2 years).
After that I feel a lot a fans make assumptions that play out as long as most of the league is playing a mid 90’s- to mid ought’s style of game { station to station and wait for the train ( HR) then go Righty/Lefty madness in the final 3 innings}. As the game style moves away from that those assumptions are not necessarily going to valid.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 12, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the main problem w/ Pythags
Is that it can be seriously skewed by bi-polar performances.
If you have 3 great starters who hardly ever give up runs, and your offense only needs to score 3-4 runs to win those games the vast majority of the time combined with 2 really bad starters who give up a disproportionate shitload of runs your pythag is likely to very different from your actual record.
In a hypothetical extreme, a team could lose 0-10 for 10 – 15 games sprinkled across a season (Say, 5th starter issues / throw away days) and then go on to play ~ .600 baseball for the remaining games. Their Pythag would then suggest that they were extremely lucky, which I would argue is wrong. It’s just that they had a bipolar talent distribution and they either won games or REALLY lost.
Likewise, a team like the Giants can put up a 11 spot on someone as shitty as the nationals a few times and really help even out their pythag, even tho it’s really not representative of their true talent.
by FairweatherFan on May 12, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
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by haverecords on May 12, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not the problem with Pythags
It’s the whole point of Pythags. The whole idea behind Pythagorean records is the assumption that a team that wins 4 games by one run and then loses one game by four runs is, overall, an average team. If you disagree with that assumption, then you have no reason to use them.
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I hope.
by Cookyman on May 12, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Extreme examples don't really work with Pythag, though, because teams aren't really built like that.
You don’t see teams with three 2.50 ERA starters and two 8.00 ERA starters.
If the Giants put up an 11 spot against the Nats, but other teams don’t, isn’t that some sort of signal that indicates the Giants have some talent?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 12, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The whole " bi polar thing" is why I like a fairly large sample body (more than half a season) with them before I move them out of my Small Sample Size Theater box. Over time the weird just tends to even out (or in grumpy old man speak, " The worm turns") . I can accept people like Sky, or Xanthan, Coockyman , Marcelo etc ( even you FWF) here might be adept enough with the formulas to feel comfortable drawing conclusions with a smaller sample body but I don’t.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 13, 2009 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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