Poll: Pablo's Defense
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 6:25 AM PDT
134 comments
One of the biggest topics of discussions during the offense was the propspect of Sandoval manning the hot corner this season. Opinions ranged from "he'll be fine" to "he'll suck". In my opinion, we optimists are looking fairly smart so far, but it's still a subject of debate.
Pro-Pablo Argument:
According to the mlb stats, he has no errors. (I thought he had one.) He's made a few nice diving stabs and, with his low center of gravity, is able to return to his feet quickly and throw. While his range on grounders is not that great, he appears to have adequate left and right quickness and a sure glove on sharply hit grounders. He has a smooth transer from glove to throwing hand and his arm is both strong and accurate. The most pleasant surprise with Pablo so far has been the agility he has shown charging bunts and throwing out runners at first. He's shown an ability to throw off-balance and his decsion-making has been good.
Anti-Pablo Argument:
(I'll guess at this since I'm not in this camp.) His range is a joke. He doesn't have a body that can play 3B regularly. I don't care what you've observed, the defensive stats show him to be a full run below replacement value. Did I mention he's fat?
The Future
As we've discussed before, Pablo at 3B has important long-term ramifications for the Giants. With Molina at the end of his deal and Buster progressing nicely, Pablo's value to the team will be high if he can catch or play 3B next season and beyond.
How comfortable are you with him at 3B? I've tried to give a range of opinions that cover the possible gambit.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Wow! As of this writing, 100% of us think I’m smart and cute. Thanks everyone!
/blush
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 6:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
sorry-
3 way tie now with “you’re ugly and stupid” and “is that dancing or conniptions”.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
"the plan was to put our regulars out there as often as possible to get off to a fast start."- Bruce Botchy
by natteringnabob on Apr 30, 2009 6:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pablo
I don’t think he looks horrible out there, which is a great testament to his abilities as a ballplayer and athlete. See “Russ Davis”.
I’m more concerned these days that he might be a very good catcher going to waste at 3B. Just for the sake of argument, wouldn’t former shortstop Buster Posey be a better 3B? He doesn’t seem to have the same weight challenges, and if he can be the next Johnny Bench, maybe he could be the next Brooks Robinson instead. Pablo seems to have done a nice job “handling” Zitoooooooo, and I’ve seen several stories about Posey working to learn the ins and outs of calling pitches and other aspects of catcher.
Also, IIRC Pablo looked OK at 1B, at least compared to the previous occupants of the position. So if he’s not going to catch, to me the logical thing would have been to put him at 1B. He’s not what a 1B bat is supposed to look like, but assuming he keeps hitting as he is he’ll be the best bat over there since…. well, in a long time. This also solves the “Ishikawa/Niekro/Ortmeier/Bowker” problem, also known as “I thought 1B was the dumping ground for immoblile old sluggers”.
So if I were king GINATS BRAS would trade Molina for a prospect and an AAAA 3B (McPherson, if he gets healthy) and let Pablo catch for now. If Posey doesn’t pan out as a catcher but can still hit, move him to 1B or 3B and leave Pablo there. If he does become a ML catcher, give Pablo a 1B mitt, and try to find a real 3B.
Maybe the statheads can enlighten us in a few months with Pablo’s offense + Pablo’s defense< Happy Pete’s “offense” + Happy Pete’s defense.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
"the plan was to put our regulars out there as often as possible to get off to a fast start."- Bruce Botchy
by natteringnabob on Apr 30, 2009 7:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Terrible Idea
The whole SS Buster Posey thing is overblown. He was never projected to actually be able to play SS at the major league level at all. Even if he was decent at 3B, you lose so much value because his bat doesn’t play nearly as well at 3B (and even worse at 1B) as it does at C. Plus, Posey is projected to be a gold glove caliber catcher. Basically, what I’m saying is if Posey lives up to his potential he can be a nearly Joe Mauer quality player, and moving him off C takes a lot of that away.
I would love to see us give Pablo more time at C this year, see if we can trade Molina for something at the break and give Pablo the full-time C job for the last couple months of the season, and then for the first couple months of next season. Even if we bring Posey up some time next year at C and move Pablo back to 3B, showing other teams he can handle backstop duties will greatly increase his trade value, and who knows, maybe he ends up being valuable enough at 3B to keep.
by Missing Barry on Apr 30, 2009 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Inevitable idea
Even Joe Mauer will have to eventually move to another position, assuming he continues to be an elite hitter. So why not move Busty now and skip the year or two of “let’s teach him to call his own game”? I don’t want our best hitter to be ruining his knees at age 22 or whatever. We can always find Yorvit-level catchers.
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by Lyle on Apr 30, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There’s a reason the Twins will wait as long as possible to move Mauer off of catcher. At catcher, he’s as valuable as any other player in major league baseball. At 1B, he becomes a nice player. I don’t think the whole “calling a game” aspect is going to slow Posey’s promotion down a single day, so I don’t think that’s any reason to move him.
by Missing Barry on Apr 30, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buster appears to be athletic enough to play something beyond 1B. We’re talkiong about him playing SS, where his offense could be god-like if he can handle the defense.
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by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I’m a scout or have ever seen Posey play or anything, but everything I’ve read from people like Baseball America/Keith Law and what not has more or less flat out said he’s not capable of playing middle infield at the MLB level, which basically puts him at 1B or 3B. That said, if anyone has any evidence he really can play middle infield, the idea is a sound one. His bat would play well at SS, it would probably come down to whether his D was better at SS or C.
by Missing Barry on Apr 30, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should have signed Arod
Apparently, he called pitches from shortstop in Texas.
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by Bhaakon on Apr 30, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless you’re a Yankees fan—and really, who is?—A-Rod is the Unintentional Comedy gift that keeps on giving.
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by Kitspool on Apr 30, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Define 'eventually'
When he’s 34? Sure, there aren’t a lot of 36 year old everyday catchers, but you’re talking about potentially 10 years into a major league career. Why wouldn’t you want an elite hitter playing a high skill defensive position as long as he is capable?
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by EliminateMe on Apr 30, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I fully agree that Pablo is most valuable at catcher. He’s got a great arm and he seems to be a committed, focused student of the game; which is what one needs to call a good game. Not to mention his bat plays great their. I like Pablo at 3rd, his d is adequate, but we shouldn’t lock him out of his best position for a prospect that won’t be playing till next year at the earliest.
by shaolinironlion on Apr 30, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why I like the idea of Buster and Panda catching and playing a corner infield spot. Say one catcher 3-4 days a week the other 2-3 days and they get the rest of their play time at the weakest corner on the squad. It would increase the longevity at catcher for both players and raise the production bat not just at catcher but at the corner infield spot until a truly good- great player comes along for 1st and/or 3rd.
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by daveinexile on May 1, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since this was my exact reasoning when I prosposed it, I’ll assume you think I’m smart and cute.
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by Goofus on May 1, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would have voted for “Yes- But would I prefer he was a regular catcher? Also, yes. Does it matter at this point? No. Then I’m cool with him at third.”
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Apr 30, 2009 7:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I voted “Yes – He’s showing he can hang there and I wouldn’t mind seeing there beyond this season.”
He’s serviceable. The Buster Platoon theory is choice 1B, but I’m still scared by Feliz’s shuffling and what it may have done to him mentally, so I’d prefer to keep Posey at one position and Pablo at the other. I suppose the two positions/players are interchangeable given Buster’s experience at SS, but I’m just not comfortable with the unsettled defensive routine it would subject them to.
Stupid is as Ruben Rivera does...
by bkrhater on Apr 30, 2009 7:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
with his low center of gravity
Stupid is as Ruben Rivera does...
by bkrhater on Apr 30, 2009 7:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's really too early....
to make a solid assessment using the defensive stats. However, for the sake of argument, let’s presume that UZR is accurate and he is a -10 run<X<-5 run 3rd baseman (BTW, it’s runs below average, not replacement). That’s certainly not good, but it’s not avert-your-eyes horrible either. The truly terrible defensive players (Jeter, Young, Ibanez, Etc) who shouldn’t be playing their current positions are all worse than that.
Clearly, Pablo has demonstrated the ability to play 3rd base “well enough” to not embarrass himself at the major league level (which is pretty impressive if you think about it). In my mind, the main issue really stems from how much his below average diminishes his value.
Last season when he was awesome at the plate (which he cannot reasonably be expected to repeat), he was 4.2 offensive runs above average in 154 plate appearances. Multiply that number by 3.5 to get roughly 540 plate appearances and he would have contributed 14.7 runs above average over an entire season of great hitting. Now factor in his current defense. Let’s call Pablo 6.5 runs below average at 3rd base over the course of a season. Add in a 2.5 positional adjustment and that comes to -4 defensive runs. Pablo, while having a stellar offensive year, would be worth about 1 win more than a league average player (which is pretty good).
Let’s extrapolate this season. Pablo has been OK at the plate (.4 RAA in 75 AB’s). Multiplying by 7.5 to get 560 PA, he would contribute 3 runs above average over the season. Factoring in his defense (same calculation as above) he would be almost exactly a league average player (-1 run below average).
League average players have a lot of value (roughly 10 million/ year on the FA market) and consequently, I am fine with Sandoval playing third. However, if his defense and offense don’t improve, he’s not a burgeoning star.
Flossing a dead horse
by kenshin1 on Apr 30, 2009 7:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
(the above is a really long winded post saying Sandoval should continue to play 3rd)
Flossing a dead horse
by kenshin1 on Apr 30, 2009 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
but with math! Me likee.
I’ll be curious to see a comparison with Feliz later when more precincts are reporting.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
"the plan was to put our regulars out there as often as possible to get off to a fast start."- Bruce Botchy
by natteringnabob on Apr 30, 2009 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
replying to one self is mental masturbation
I just wanted to point out that I am not making an assessment of Sandoval’s defense. The only subjective evaluation I have been able to make with any confidence is that he isn’t terrible and he isn’t Pedro Feliz.
Flossing a dead horse
by kenshin1 on Apr 30, 2009 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lies. We are all Pedro Feliz
by Lars The Wanderer on Apr 30, 2009 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some of us are Feliz, but few of us are Pedro.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Apr 30, 2009 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
not Uribe, Aurilia, or Edgardo Alfonzo.
But reports are still trickling in.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
"the plan was to put our regulars out there as often as possible to get off to a fast start."- Bruce Botchy
by natteringnabob on Apr 30, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
replying to one self is mental masturbation
And since you’re replying to my thread, it’s safe to say you’re thinking about me when you’re doing it.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's safe to say we all think about you when we do it.
Forsan et heac olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Apr 30, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have that in common
I think of me when I do it too!
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
replaying to one self twice is like having a threesome.
…with yourself.
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by WalrusMan on Apr 30, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you ever had a threesome?
Nearly.
What do you mean “nearly”?
I’ve had a twosome.
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I hope.
by Cookyman on May 1, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let’s extrapolate this season. Pablo has been OK at the plate (.4 RAA in 75 AB’s). Multiplying by 7.5 to get 560 PA, he would contribute 3 runs above average over the season
I think extrapolating what he’s done this season puts waaaay too much weight on his slump through the first 11 games of the season (.195./.250/.268).
I see four things to that support his ability to hit at a high level:
- What he did in the minors
- What he did after being called up last season
- What he did in Spring Training
- What he’s done in the last nine games (15 for 34)
It’s obvious that Sandoval has made adjustments and is doing a MUCH better job of laying off bad pitches. I think the early slump was just a matter of being too eager to meet expectations. (This ability to make adjustments sets him apart from Feliz.)
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s obvious that Sandoval has made adjustments and is doing a MUCH better job of laying off bad pitches
No. He looks like the same hitter as before.
by xanthan on Apr 30, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You haven’t seen ANY improvement in pitch selection since is hitting took off in the last nine games?
He’ll always be a free swinging hack, but to me it was really pronounced at the start of the season.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still see a lot of hacking, which is fine it’s who he is, but I don’t think it’s “obvious” that Sandoval has made some adjustment over the last 20 at-bats. It just unrealistic.
by xanthan on Apr 30, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I should have said he corrected an extreme hackiness that was plaguing him early in the season.
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by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I concur
Hey is laying off pitchers Pump Fakes
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
/wry, but nevertheless fairly big, smile
Forsan et heac olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Apr 30, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and pickoff attempts.
Please Jesus, don't let us be like the Cubs.
by SimpleJaquez on Apr 30, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I don’t think we’re seeing an adjustment so much as the natural tendency for hitters in general and freeswingers in particular to be extremely streaky.
At least, insofar as the former implies that he’ll hit ~.340 the rest of the way and the latter implies that he won’t.
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by Bhaakon on Apr 30, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say pitchers adjusted to him by going further and further out of the zone and he kept swinging. He then counter-adjusted by “tempering his enthusiasm” for pitches way out of the zone.
Hitting .340 is not an all or nothing proposition. He could hit .325 and I’d be pleased as punch and call him a valuable asset.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not that it’s impossible that what you’re saying is true, it’s just that we can’t conclude that from these micro-samples. I mean, pick a random player, split his season into weeks’ worth of data, and you’ll find significant fluctuations in his numbers. That’s especially true for batters like Sandoval, who have so much of their value come from their AVG.
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I hope.
by Cookyman on May 1, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d like to see a mathematical proof of your denial of Goofus’ unsubstantiated assertion.
Hi, I am Johnny Disaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Apr 30, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not even close. Are you even watching the games?
by Nibbler on May 1, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can’t throw away his first 44 PAs and just focus on his last 34 PAs.
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by WalrusMan on Apr 30, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn’t suggesting that we ignore the slump I was saying that extrapolating a full season from merely the 20 games of current season isn’t fair when it includes a slump that looks to be a big outlier.
Since both this season and last are pretty small sample sizes, I’d propose combining his mlb numbers over the two seasons as more fair.
In 61 games and 220 ABs, Pablo is hitting .332/.355./.473 and has an OPS+ of 113, which already matches the career OPS+ of Aramis Ramirez. If Pablo can keep being Pablo, I’ll love him like a son.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isn’t really an argument just a question. UZR is runs below average because why? Don’t we always judge players against replacement, not average?
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
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by WalrusMan on Apr 30, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know the real answer
but I suspect that replacement level (ie:the quality of freely available talent) for defense is much, much closer to league average than replacement level for offense. There seem to be alot more players who are kept off of major league rosters for their bat than their glove (which would raise the replacement level), as well as a fair number of good-hitting major leaguer players who are kept at a position in spite of their defense (which would lower the average).
That, and defense and replacement level are both notoriously difficult to nail down, so much so that defensive replacement level might be a laughable concept at this point.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Apr 30, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
too much PIE
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Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
GIS for "body bias"
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on Apr 30, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My observations:
- Goes left well
- Goes right less well
- Goes back on popups/foul balls well
- Comes in on balls well
- Good+ arm
- Confident and athletic
These things, teamed with great work ethic—and obvious love of the game = room to improve
"The dreams ain't broken down here now, they're walking with a limp" --TW
by bgunn on Apr 30, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
- dots are cool
- bouncy
- better fielder than this guy
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!
by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that Walrus Man?
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
by kennv on Apr 30, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
found it. forgot who get's credit for it.
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by ResDog on Apr 30, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
howtheyscored
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on Apr 30, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn’t I actually get credit?
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Kevin Frandsen should be with the big team.
by WalrusMan on Apr 30, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
"Nothing important ever happened without me."
by ResDog on Apr 30, 2009 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was you? I could have sworn it was howie
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shmoo!
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 1, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pablo Schmoodoval!!
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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by merkin on May 1, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pablo’s been better than I expected but still needs to work on getting the ball out of his glove faster on throws to first. Otherwise even moderately fast runners are going to take advantage.
I’m actually much more concerned about Fred Lewis’ defense, which seems to have fallen off a cliff sometime since last season, than I am about Sandoval’s.
"Are we bad? No. But right now, we are." Boulderskull, 4.16.09
by Kitspool on Apr 30, 2009 10:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hasn’t Fred always been this way, though? I recall him making several atrocious errors last season, and there were a lot of stories about his slapstick fielding as he came up through the minors.
by Evan on Apr 30, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A “highlight” reel with “Cobwebs & Strange” by The Who would be fun.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fred often reminds me of a passage Bill James wrote about Lonnie Smith many years ago, which I’ve just now found again, thanks to the miracles of the googles:
I would try to tell you what a bad outfielder Lonnie is, except that I confess that I would never have believed it myself if somebody had tried to tell me. I will say, though, that the real cost of Lonnie’s defense is not nearly as great as the psychic impact of it. He makes you wail and gnash your teeth a lot, but he doesn’t really cost you all that many runs.
One reason for that is that he recovers so quickly after he makes a mistake. You have to understand that Lonnie makes defensive mistakes every game, so he knows how to handle it. Your average outfielder is inclined to panic when he falls down chasing a ball in the corner; he may just give up and sit there a while, trying to figure it out. Lonnie has a pop-up slide perfected for the occasion.
Another outfielder might have no idea where the ball was when it bounded off his glove. Lonnie can calculate with the instinctive astrophysics of a veteran tennis player where a ball will land when it skips off the heel of his glove, what the angle of glide will be when he tips it off the webbing, what the spin will be when the ball skids off the thumb of the mitt.
Many players can kick a ball behind them without ever knowing it. Lonnie can judge by the pitch of the thud and the subtle pressure through his shoe in which direction and how far he has projected the sphere.
He knows exactly what to do when a ball spins out of his hand and flies crazily into a void on the field. He knows when it is appropriate for him to scamper after the ball and when he needs to back up the man who will have to recover it.
He has experience in these matters; when he retires he will be hired to come to spring training and coach defensive recovery and cost containment. This is his specialty, and he is good at it.
by Evan on Apr 30, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Tough but fair.
I dunno, Fred was never gonna be a defensive wizard, but to my eyes he sure looked a lot more serviceable as a left fielder last season. Now he just looks totally lost out there. It’s depressing.
"Are we bad? No. But right now, we are." Boulderskull, 4.16.09
by Kitspool on Apr 30, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he will be more than servicible tell his speed starts to go. So give him a 2-3 more years then we get to see if he falls off a cliff , like say, Andru Jones has recently.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 1, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fred has always taken bad routes. Fred has always been extremely athletic. Fred is a fine LF.
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I hope.
by Cookyman on May 1, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s fine? Are you hitting on him?
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on May 1, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
by Cookyman on May 1, 2009 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thus I call him Skates which was Smith nickname.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 1, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can live with his range, arm, hands….all are at least passable
two things concern me
- decision making
- charging bunts and slow rollers
He has good instincts, so decision making will come with experience
Time will tell if he masters the slow roller, but I am optimistic
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Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 10:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I can recall one bunt he didn’t make a play on that maybe was makable by a top-flight 3B, otherwise I thinks he’s been good at charging the ball and making excellent throws.
What decisions of his have you not liked?
By the way, the catch made on Furcal’s swing bunt was pretty sweet. He reacted quickly, left his feet and made a nice catch.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve actually been pleasantly surprised by his handling of those plays, looking at him come in on balls in spring training is one of the things that got me on board with the Panda Experiment. That and drafting Buster Posey.
Of course, very small sample size and so forth…
Hi, I am Johnny Disaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Apr 30, 2009 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
one play in particular stands out in my mind
where he cut in front of the shortstop on a nubber past the pitcher
fast runner (I believe it was Weeks), caught with glove and never got it out
had no chance unless he barehanded the ball
I am with you though, I believe is more nimble than his body type would lead us to beliieve
He is just YOUNG
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just checked it was Cameron who hit that ball
I got most games on DVD
I just saw another play where he was caught in between hops and handcuffed himself
If he too too steps forward he would have had the short hop or taken on the downward path
He stood his ground and waited for the ball….and he had time…..
And again, I repeat….these things will iron themselves out with time
He has tools and instincts
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember that
and it was a very nice play for anyone, let alone a chubby kid who played catcher all his life
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
card carrying Bochy Hatter
by natteringnabob on Apr 30, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, woulda been a nice play
only chance was barehanded…maybe he grabs it, maybe he doesn’t…..but not making the attempt was the frustrating part
and thinking back on the bunt play that sticks in my mind
that was in early spring so perhaps its too harsh to judge of that
My memory tells me there was another bunt early season, but I honestly can’t remember the game and I don’t have time to search for it…….who knows if I remember correctly
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember a game
where there were several bunt attempts early on; maybe SD? Like they were just implementing a scouting report. I think the Giants got bombed for other reasons so it was blocked out of my memory.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
card carrying Bochy Hatter
by natteringnabob on Apr 30, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
rings a bell
I will check it out more when I have time
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
TIME OUT
Let’s just stop and keep this conversation in some context.
We’re starting to scratch our heads and search for plays this season (or ST!) where he didn’t make a play another 3B might have or where he was caught between hops or whatever. No infielder is going to make every play single play.
The larger point is, and I think most of us agree, that he’s been holding his own at the very minimum and has been somewhat of a revelation after some of the off-season doomsday predictions.
I was talking to a friend yesterday and we both agreed that Pablo is now our favorite Giant. He’s showing ability at the plate and at multiple positions. More importantly, he’s easily the most fun Giant to watch as he enthusiastically bounces around the field. I’m trying to think of a player in the past who’s brought as much fun to a team at such a young age as Pablo.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on May 1, 2009 5:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
….he’s been holding his own at the very minimum and has been somewhat of a revelation after some of the off-season doomsday predictions.
I would fall into that camp
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
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by merkin on May 1, 2009 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ummm he played a lot of 3b in the minors
The absentee father of Edwin "Cue Ball" Quirarte, now that he is doin well in the minors, its time to get back in his life, and in his checking account!
by TexasRanger on May 1, 2009 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t call 91 games in short short season A and low A “a lot”
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on May 1, 2009 5:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's make a list of MLB 3B
that are GOOD at charging and mastering slow rollers.
I think an ex-Giant might be on it. Not Charlie Hayes.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
card carrying Bochy Hatter
by natteringnabob on Apr 30, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are all not Charlie Hayes.
"The dreams ain't broken down here now, they're walking with a limp" --TW
by bgunn on Apr 30, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
mastering?? how many players MASTER anything
GOOD at…..I would say at least 75% of the majors
you need to be able to make that charging barehanded play to survive at 3rd
either that or you play 45 feet from the plate all day long
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
merkin said
Time will tell if he masters the slow roller
How about just in the division?
Mark Reynolds? Not so much.
Kouzmanoff? Maybe.
Atkins? Great hitter!
Scott Hairston’s bastard bearded albino cousin in LA? Holy glove, Batman, he’s crappy.
I think Pablo might be able to do as well of any of these characters.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
card carrying Bochy Hatter
by natteringnabob on Apr 30, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My impression of Reynolds is great tools and error prone.. I seem to think he would be pretty slick at bunts
Kouzmanoff, decent
Blake, DH/1B playing 3rd……i doubt he’s that good
Atkins……I think thats some diet fad
Problem is, decent 3rd baseman don’t get challenged by average runners unless they are playing short left field…only speedy bunty types….and with a nice bunt…..its hard to nail those guys…….
or perhaps I have just been spoiled by M Williams, Bell, and Feliz
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Might as well throw Mueller in that group as well and in fairness those were all well above decent gloves for 3rd baseman.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 1, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beltre is a master of the slow roller
The absentee father of Edwin "Cue Ball" Quirarte, now that he is doin well in the minors, its time to get back in his life, and in his checking account!
by TexasRanger on May 1, 2009 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
there really should be a 4:20 joke in here somewhere….
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 1, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can’t think of a play this year where he made a bad decision so far. I am not sure he has had the opportunity to make a mental mistake, though I have missed 2 games this year. IIRC, all of his assists(and everything else) have been throw ball-catch ball plays.
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Wronghanded Affeldt doing it right
by Giant among Angels on Apr 30, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I seem to recall
Fat slob/former NL MVP Terry Pendleton played third base. No reason Pablo can’t be as athletic as him.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
by RDreamer on Apr 30, 2009 3:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
As you can tell from my OP, I like Pablo at 3B, but Pendleton was like 30-40 lbs less than the Panda
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 30, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted No, but I have been pleasantly surprised by hit at 3rd…so far. I was very worried about his ability to handle the position, but I hope he can prove me wrong for the remainder of the season.
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Wronghanded Affeldt doing it right
by Giant among Angels on Apr 30, 2009 8:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I voted yes
,…..the kid will be fine….maybe never gold glove….but he has the tools to be solid
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
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by merkin on Apr 30, 2009 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This year? He is fine at 3B
Future? Not so much.
If Ishikawa doesn’t stick, Pablo will make a fine 1B. In any case, the Giants need his bat in the lineup.
by Lars The Wanderer on May 1, 2009 8:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What’s going to happen over the off-season that’s going to take him from “fine” this year to “not so much” next year?
I hope Sandoval can stick at 3B or catcher since if Ishi doesn’t stick at 1B, Guzman can play 1B until AnVil is ready.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on May 1, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, apparently he is going to be catching when he is not at 3rd. Additionally, he is going to slow as he gets older. Neither will do much for his mobility.
by Lars The Wanderer on May 1, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just what bar are we measureing against here?
Yet he does seem to have the reflex speed for third and that is one of those things I don’t think can be taught. I can agree he will not be a Mike Schmidt, Brooks Robinson type but the Panda is not even 23 yet.
That last 2 farm raised Giants 3rd baseman worth anything ( Mueller & Williams) were not setting the world on fire at 22 either. Williams posted MLB line of 205/251/410 in 170 P.A.’s starting in June. Sure Williams showed flashes of what was to come but he had other moments as well. Mueller was not drafted tell June of his age 22 year.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 1, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's 22
I really doubt he’s going to slow down next season.
Unless you you meant to say “Short term? Fine. Long tierm? Not so much.”, I still don’t understand your original post.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on May 1, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
/sigh
I definitely didn’t communicate clearly…
Yes, a year or 2 at 3rd? Fine. Long term? No. He is not going to stay as mobile as he is now. He will probably put on even more weight as he ages and his catching responsibilities will inevitably kill his legs.
If other options appear in the next couple of years at a corner position? Maybe he is trade bait. Ultimately, he is no going to spend the majority of his career at 3B.
by Lars The Wanderer on May 1, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know I would have said the same about this guy 6-7 years ago. Coming into this year he has 5K+ innings at third and 3K+ innings at Catcher. And he only played 1 game at 3rd in the minors.
I am not trying to pick on you Lars just I think this discussion underlines 2 things.
1) The difference between the top level of talent (4-6 players) and the field at 3rd base might very well be the widest of all 8 positions.
2) At some point soon we might be getting at a point where us (McCoven and Lunatic Fringe types) need to reassess what we expect from 25 & 40 squad.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 1, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Inge is listed as 5’8" 185. Pablo was probably that size at 15 years old. I know people want to minimize the weight thing with Pablo. And for the most part, they have been right to do so….for now. I just have the feeling that it is going to be more of an issue as he ages.
by Lars The Wanderer on May 1, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, and Inge manned the hot corner once before age 27. It was not meant to be a template to Panda’s future but to show how the rest of league lives when it does not have a Schmidt, or Williams or Beltre.
If you want “credit” for body type (leave aside there is not “perfect body type” for either 2nd or 3rd base) you have to grant “credit” for speed of reaction reflex skill as well. Most players don’t have the later to the degree needed for third base on regular bases. All our knocks on Pablo are range, approach and repetition based. At least 2 of things have the potential to be fixed. The speed of reflex reactions can’t be. You either have it or you don’t.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 1, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think catching 30 games a year or turning 28 are going to kill his mobility. So 4-5 years are in the picture.
Plus, why is it automatic that he will put on weight? If he ever insituted any kind off season workout/diet program he’d be an excellent candidate to LOSE a significant amount of weight. Like 20-30 pounds.
by hammystyle on May 1, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more thought
Pablo establishing himslef as a viable 3B as well as C is actually a pretty significant development for the team. If we assume Posey won’t be ready next season, the team will have a hole to fill with Molina’s deal expiriing. Pablo’s ability to play either 3B or C will give the team more flexibility as they shop the FA market, explore trades or look to advance someone from the minors.
It also certainly would increase Pablo’s trade value (but I certainly don’t want that to happen, nor do I certainly think it will.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on May 1, 2009 12:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm coming around
I had up close seats to a game last year and thought he didn’t have a chance. It looked to me like he was taking plays off his hips that an average 3B would be easily in front of. Making the easy plays look hard instead of the opposite.
However, I might just have a warped view of what a 3B shoud be. Defensively its tough to beat Williams, Mueller, and Feliz over my fanhood lifespan.
by hammystyle on May 1, 2009 2:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pablito
The Giants actually have five diffferent options for Pablo:
. C
. 1B
. 3B
. All of the above
. None of the above, since he will be traded.
Pablo’s bat would play best behind the plate, making catcher an attractive option in a vacuum. The vacuum doesn’t include Buster Posey, likely the Giants’ starting catcher from 2010 through 2025. So catcher probably isn’t the best option.
Pablo’s has a good bat, but not one that is likely to play well at the power-potent position of first base. Plus Angel Villalona will probably seize the position in about 2011 or 2012. Let’s not choose door #2.
Pablo’s bat plays OK at the hot corner, and thus far his glove has been at least adequate. This is a good option, although not exactly an inspired one. Plus, Pablo looks kinda funny with his mouthpiece.
Since Pablo can play three positions, why not use him at each one as is appropriate? That might mean he’s a third baseman until Conor Gillaspie is ready, or it might mean that it wiill last forever, leaving Conor to demonstrate his four-error games elsewhere. It might mean that Pablo shares catcher and third base with Posey. It might mean that Pablo gives AnVil the occasional rest against the right-hander with the devastating curve ball. It could mean anything — and ain’t a bad option.
Or the Giants could continue to develop Pablo as a catcher (even if only part-time), making him an above-average option behind the dish and a particularly attractive one given the lack of left-handed bats behind the plate. That could make him very valuable in trade.
My personal thought is that one of the last two situations will eventually occur. If the Giants want to take advantage of the versatility of both Pablo and Buster, I would think it would be the former. If the Giants want Buster to play 140 games behind the plate year after year, I would think the Giants would need to trade Pablo to get the top value for him.
Pablo is a VERY popular Giant and will remain one as long as he hits. That would make it tough to trade him. But even if Conor Gillaspie fails at third base, Pablo’s value to the Giants will likely be higher in the long run as a trade-bait catcher than as an everyday third baseman.
Pablo is a good hitter for a third baseman, perhaps a VERY good hitter there. But he’s a dynamite hitter for a catcher. Not only that, Pablo has thrown out nearly 50% of those who attempted to steal against him in 2007 and 2008. You don’t think a fine left-handed (even better, switch-hitting) bat and a strong throwing arm coupled with the athleticism of an infielder would be an attractive option for a team trying to trade for a catcher for the next decade?
Pablo’s greatest value to the Giants would seem to be his versatility. To a team without Buster Posey, it would seem to be as a fine-hitting catcher with a great arm.
by sharksrog on May 1, 2009 2:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That’s assuming other teams see him as a viable everyday catcher. I’m not sure they do, and unless we gave him at least a full season behind the dish I don’t think they will. Could be they do that next year though.
Either way, I’m pretty happy with free-swinging versatile 22 year old Pablo and him being with the Giants.
by hammystyle on May 1, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best percentage
Do you know which catcher has the best percentage of runners thrown out stealing over the past two seasons in all the minor leagues? I’m pretty sure it is Pablito, who is close to 50% and has finshed fourth in the minors in 2007 and third in 2008.
by sharksrog on May 2, 2009 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
I remember reading JWilliams was #2 and Pablo was #3 in 2008
Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM
Cut and Pasted Blog redundancy can be a good thing
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by merkin on May 3, 2009 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pablo’s greatest value to the Giants would seem to be his versatility.
Versatile but not necessarily dominate at a defensive position. Kind of reminds me of talks about where is a team better off playing this guy. Of course Panda will never lead the league in walks like he did (but then to my knowledge catcher was never an option for him either) but the frame work of the discussion is similar. Man was he good and under sung (Bill James aside).
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 2, 2009 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how hard it was to write ten paragraphs without mentioning a certain Giants pitcher.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on May 2, 2009 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Merkin?
Botchy manages to write lineup cards every night without his name
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
card carrying Bochy Hatter
by natteringnabob on May 2, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would any want to mention Howry is beyond me? Yes i know it has not been 9 IP or even a 12 appearances but I am beginning to have strong distaste for him.
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 2, 2009 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't give up
Don’t give up on Bobby Howry. He has fashioned a very impressive 9/1 K/BB (non-intentional) this season. His problems are due primarily to a .453 BABIP. Bobby is getting more swings outside the strike zone than his career average and more taken strikes than his career mark.
I thought Bobby was a decent risk for one year at reasonable money. Whether that will pan out, we will see. But I do see some positive signs. I also see negative signs, but at this point I think the positive outweighs the negative if one digs deep enough.
by sharksrog on May 2, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say
that Pablo has done much better than I expected him to defensively at third thus far this season. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s made some excellent plays, has shown that he has a pretty good arm and overall has played relatively respectable D so far.
Fred Lewis on the other hand…
by ololo3 on May 1, 2009 4:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Update
Since I wrote this post, The Panda has turned in a number of gems , so I’m more convinced than ever he can play there.
Oh yeah, judging from the poll results, we’re a pretty happy group right now.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on May 8, 2009 2:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Clearly he is the best defensive third baseman, ever.
by xanthan on May 8, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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