FanPost

Fun with Win Values

As many of you know, the win value stat represents the latest, and by far the best IMO method to evaluate players.   Using the best available offensive stat (wOBA), defensive stat (UZR) and pitching stat (FIP), win values literally allows one to assess how many wins a player has been worth compared to an equivalent minor league replacement (think Willie Bloomquest).  Additionally, since major league teams pay roughly 5 million/ win on the FA market, win values enables us to think of player value in monetary terms (which is ridiculously cool and intuitive).  Since MGL generously allowed access of UZR to fangraphs, win values are now updated continuously throughout the season.   So how have the Giants done throughout April?

 

 

Comments:

wOBA is a great stat regardless of the sample size; however, UZR has a lot of noise this early in the season and should be taken with a grain of salt.    There is a positional adjustment which I did not include in my chart (CF defense is worth more than 1st base defense for instance), and which is why adding defensive RAA and offensive RAA does not completely explain win value.

1.  Lincecum is unbelievably good.   To wit: as good as Cain has been this season, he has only contributed about 1/2 as much as Timmy.  Lincecum has earned many times over his actual salary this season.

2. Summation of the Giants 2009 offense:   Andres friggin' Torres has been the 3rd best position player this season (depending on how much you believe the defensive stats)

3.  Despite his admittedly awful offense, Renteria has been OK so far this season.  UZR likes his defense (which jives with my subjective visual evaluation).   The dude cannot hit but Worst. Contract. Ever. this ain't.

4.  Travis Ishikawa  YIKES.    Emmanuel Burriss  DOUBLE YIKES.      If the world was a meritocracy, these two would PAY the Giants 4 million dollars for their play this season.   That is how much worse they have been than AAA veterans.  FREE KEVIN FRANDSEN.

5.  Barry Zito- 3rd best Giants starter this season.   <Cue weeping and gnashing of teeth>.   I am quite frankly terrified and astonished.

6.  I was completely on board with the Randy Johnson signing at the time.   In reality, it has not worked out very well so far.

7.  According to UZR,  Aaron Rowand has no business playing CF.   I hate this signing more with every passing day.

 

Player

Defensive

RAA  (runs above average)

Offensive RAA

Win Value

Monetary Value (in millions)

Fred Lewis

2.6

3.9

.8

3.5

Bengie Molina

1.6

.5

2.3

Andres Torres

2.1

1.0

.4

1.6

Edgar Renteria

1.1

-2.4

.2

.8

Pablo Sandoval

-1.0

-.3

.2

.7

Randy Winn

.5

-1.9

0

.2

Aaron Rowand

-2.7

.3

0

-.1

Rich Aurilia

.4

-2.3

-.2

-.8

Eugenio Velez

-1.3

-2.2

-.3

-1.3

Travis Ishikawa

1.1

-5.7

-.4

-1.8

Emmanuel Burriss

-.2

-7.0

-.4

-2

Pitcher

Win Value

Money Value

Tim Lincecum

1.1

5.1

Matt Cain

.5

2.2

Barry Zito

.2

1

Jonathan Sanchez

0

.1

Randy Johnson

-.1

-.5

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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