A Fairley Poor Start
by sharksrog on Apr 24, 2009 12:24 AM PDT
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PrintAs I looked more deeply into Wendell Fairley's .138 start at Augusta this season, the picture got even worse. (Fortunately, we're talking about only 29 at bats, so Wendell has plenty of time to reverse this situation.)
Not only has Wendell struck out 13 times in those 29 at bats, he has yet to hit a line drive. Not one. He has yet to beat out a ground ball or have one find a hole.
Wendell's four hits in those 29 at bats have come on the five fly balls he has hit. My sense is that three of those four fly ball hits were balls that weren't hit hard, but merely fell in.
Why do I feel that way? Only one of the four hits went for extra bases, a triple. Clearly that ball was hit hard enough to get past the outfielders. The other three? With Wendell's speed, if they had been hit hard at all, wouldn't he have been able to convert them into at least doubles?
So it may be that in 29 at bats thus far this season, Wendell has hit the ball hard in fair territory only once.
Ouch!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Well, minor league FB/LD/GB rates aren’t terribly reliable iirc, and it’s also possible that he hit a few balls hard that were caught.
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Fairley injured his shoulder in the second game of the season...
While he missed only two games, he did appear to be playing through the pain. He said as recently as Monday he felt ‘fine’ (and had a two-hit game on Tuesday), but clearly this has affected him.
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by howtheyscored on Apr 24, 2009 7:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Wendell is a GAMER
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on Apr 24, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't say "clearly"
He didn’t hit for any power last year either.
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I hope.
Thanks
Thanks for that, Brute. His being injured gives me more comfort than the possibility that some of his ground balls have been hard-hit. I guess we do know that three of them were hard enough hit to turn into double plays, although none off them combined the velocity and direction to get through the infield.
Looking more closely at Wendell’s season to date, he went one for five with a walk before being injured — without a single strikeout. Since returning to action, he has only three hits, while striking out 13 times in just 24 at bats.
Wendell has struck out seven times in his last nine at bats, although he did get the two hits you mentioned in his other two trips. He has also struck out nine times in his last dozen trips, although he did hit his triple the day before that streak started.
Wait
Is it the same shoulder he injured last year?
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I hope.
That I do not know.
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by BruteSentiment on Apr 25, 2009 2:22 AM PDT up reply actions
I really think it’s pretty ridiculous to worry about 29 at-bats from such a raw prospect like Fairley. He might not ever turn into anything, but it’s way too early to try and draw a conclusion from his 29 at-bats. That’s like 6 games.
yeah, I agree. Not only is he very young, but I think he played mostly football before he signed with the Giants. It’s way to early to give up on him, although early returns aren’t very good.
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Not that I'm aware
While he did play football, he both played and pitched well in baseball in High School, putting up good stats. That’s (pitching) always an option if his hitting never picks up (but not if his injuries don’t stop).
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Apr 24, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s not really just 8-9 games — it’s going on two years in which Fairley has done absolutely nothing to suggest he’ll ever be able to contribute to a AA club, much less a major-league team.
Every once in a while a lottery ticket comes in, I suppose. But that’s all he is at this point.
2 sporadic injury filled years!
OMG HUGE SAMPLE SIZE OF 222 CAREER AT-BATS!
Every once in a while a lottery ticket comes in, I suppose. But that’s all he is at this point.
This is most prospects.
Concern, not despair
I certainly don’t think we should give up on Wendell, but I do think he is worthy of our concern. As I mentioned originally, he needs to turn things around, lest he slip from the prospect category and into the suspect lineup.
Another way to look at it is that so far Fairley hasn’t met even the most basic requirement for a professional baseball player: He has to be able to take the field.
I don’t think most prospects are lottery tickets. Most non-blue chip prospects are guys like Joe Martinez or Mike McBryde or Scott Barnes or maybe Nick Noonan — guys have virtually no chance to ever become stars, but who have a decent shot at being contributors — one in ten, maybe? Wendell’s ceiling is higher than than, but his chance of succeeding is much, much lower.
Whoa, whoa, whoa!
Hold off there, hoss. Don’t go dragging Noonan’s name around there among the McBrydes and Barneses and Martinezes. Nick does still have the potential for stardom, or at least extremelygooddom. I could easily see Robbie Thompson numbers.
And I thought you should be our next GM???
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I don’t know about Noonan. He’s definitely on the high side of that range, but it would be quite a stretch to put him into the blue-chip category.
Blue chipper
I would considered Nick to be a blue chipper, but one which has developed a small crack. Hopefully it is capable of regeneration.
I was a bit disappointed when I watched Nick, although when he hits the ball hard, it sounds like it came off the bat of a hitter. And his nine homers at Augusta (in comparison to Angel Villalona’s 16) were somewhat impressive. He’s hit two out already in 2009.
And I’ll bet the two-error inning I saw him have 15 days ago was the worst defensive inning of his life.
Probably much less
From my draft study, by the third-fourth round, around 2% became good, 5% became useful players/contributors. Except for Noonan, those guys were selected much beyond 3rd/4th round, so I would think the odds are much less than the numbers above.
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"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Apr 24, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but they’re not draft picks anymore; they have conquered the lower levels, shown some ability. So their odds are better.
Makes sense—-sort of like life-expectancy numbers. If a society’s life expectancy on the whole is 80 years old, then it is going to be much higher among the people who have already lived to the age of 5, and even higher among those who have lived to 18.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Particularly
Life expectancy become particularly high among those over 90.
Although after 123 years or so the life expectancy drops dramatically.
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Kevin Frandsen should be with the big team.
Are you sure?
Hey, young whippersnapper. Are you sure about ……………….. (dial tone)
And I thought I was having a bad week.
Imagine having your “bad week” out there for everyone to analyze: “I’m really worried about Mrs. Jones, she stepped on a nail while walking out to check the mail. What was she thinking? Put some shoes on woman!!!”
It’s unlikely Mrs. Jones was selected from among thousand of applicants, and paid a considerable sum of money, precisely for her ability to walk out to check the mail while simultaneously not injuring herself.
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I mean, the deal could have gone down like that.
by Lars The Wanderer on Apr 24, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Perhaps Mrs. Jones was a first round pick in the marriage draft. I read her Kitchen Zone Rating is +15.
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Apr 24, 2009 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions
He knows something is happening, but he doesn’t know what it is.
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I don’t think that sharksrog is really worried over 29 at bats so much as he’s astounded by them. He doesn’t seem to be expressing serious concern, anyway, and he does acknowledge the sample.
And it is an astoundingly poor start.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
After all
Willie Mays started his MLB career 1 for 24, with, of course, that one hit being a homer. Not sure how many K’s he had.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Apr 24, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
The point of the comparison is its ridiculousness. He’s contextualizing the usefullness of 20 odd at bats.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Apr 24, 2009 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions
And they’re both athletic, black center fielders from the deep south. That’s enough evidence for me, Fairley is a HOFer!
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I hope.
Second story
When the Giants called up Mays from their AAA farm club in Minneapolis, he was watching a movie. They stopped the move and announced, “Mr. Mays, you have a call from a Mr. Leo Durocher.”
The fans of Minneapolis were so devastated by having their superstar leave the Twin City for the Big Apple that the Giants ran a full-page add apologizing to the fans there.
This made me giggle.
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Apr 25, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
First of three stories regarding Willie's call up
I was telling my nephew a couple of funny stories today about Willie Mays’ call up. You just brought to mind a third.
That one hit Willie had was crushed over the left field roof off Hall of Famer Warren Spahn. Spahnie later said, “If I handn’t given up that homer to Mays, maybe we could have gotten rid of him.”
Over a decade later, Spahnie no-hit the Giants on a Friday night. Two days later, Willie had a record-tying four-homer game. And of course it was off Spahn that Willie hit his walkoff home run in the 16th inning to win that epic game 1-0. The blast enabled Willie to become the only player in history to homer in innings 1-16. And it contributed to Willie’s holding the record for most career extra inning homers.
Al Dark wanted to take out his ace Juan Marichal as the game went further and further into extra innings, but Juanito told him, “I’m not coming out as long as that old man (Spahn) is out there.”
Third story
Sorry I got these out of order, but when Willie spoke to Leo Durocher and Leo told him the Giants were going to call him up to play center field, Willie said he didn’t think he was ready.
“What are you hitting?” queried Durocher.
“.477,” Willie answered.
Durocher than asked Willie, “Well, do you think you can come up and hit two-f-ing-fifty for me?”
When Willie struggled so badly at the plate at the beginning of his career, he went to Durocher crying, saying he wasn’t ready.
“You’re my center fielder,” Leo told him. And sure enough Willie played some of his best ball for the fiesty Giants manager, winning the Rookie of the Year Award in his first season, then winning the batting title when he returned from light Korean War duty and leading the league in homers the following season. I’m thinking the year after that he became the first player to hit 20 homers, steal 20 bases and hit 20 triples in the same year. In fact, isn’t he still the only player to do so?
Willie had great instincts for the game, but early in his career the second baseman asked Willie after a double if he could step off the base so he could brush off the dirt. Willie obliged — only to find out the keystoner still had the ball and tagged him out.
It was also in New York that Willie caught a fly ball in deep right center, running away from the plate. The Dodgers’ Billy Cox, a runner fast enough to have a career high 10 stolen bases in one season, was tagged up on third. Only one person in the park even expected a throw home, since the ball surely was deep enough to score Cox easily, especially with Mays’ momentum carrrying him away from the plate.
But Willie made a 360-degree turn and fired the ball to the plate, somehow catching the stunned Cox with the throw no one believed could be made.
With the Giants In San Francisco, Willie’s throwing nearly allowed him to throw for the cycle. He retired runners at home, third base and first base, and had a runner at second, only to have second baseman Tito Fuentes turn the wrong way, allowing the batter/runner to slide in safely with a double.
And it was also with the Giants while in SF that Mays hit a triple to deepest right center of which Chronicle beat writer Bob Stevens wrote, “The only who could have caught it, hit it.”
Oh, and despite that poor start in New York, the start that lead to self-doubt and tears, Mays went on to have a respectable career.
by sharksrog on Apr 24, 2009 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m thinking the year after that he became the first player to hit 20 homers, steal 20 bases and hit 20 triples in the same year. In fact, isn’t he still the only player to do so?
Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins both did it in 2007.
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21st century
The 21st century doesn’t count in baseball. :) Actually, I guess I did know that — but had certainly forgotten. (That’s what they mean when they tell us, he’s forgotten more about baseball than you know.)
Amazing, isn’t it, that it took players half a century to duplicate that feat — and then two different players did it in the same season?
Willie was the first 30/30 guy, but he never quite reached 40/40. He did say, though, that if he had know 40/40 was going to be such a big deal, he would have done it. And I suspect he was right. Willie could have stolen a lot more bases had he chosen to do so.
Bobby Bonds came oh-so-close to becoming the first 40/40 player. IIRC he had 39 homers and something like 35 stolen bases, when he suddenly stopped hitting homers. He reached the 40 steals, but fell one short on home runs.
When Willie was traded to the Mets, he was well over the hill, yet Hall of Fame teammate Tom Seaver still talks about how Willie used his long-time trick of slowing down to draw a throw so that the runnner or runners behind him could take an extra base.
The only time I ever saw Willie thrown out while slowing to draw the throw was when Roberto Clemente threw him out at third base at Candlestick, throwing a laser to Maury Wills, who played the hot corner in both 1967 and 1968 for the Bucs.
Roberto, probably the most exciting player of that era aside from Mays himself, was a great hitter, but not a great home run hitter (finishing his career with 228 jacks). But on August 13, 1969, I was fortunate enough to be one of the few (not big weekday crowds back in those days) to see him hit three homers at Candlestick. One was just crushed to center field, and although this had to be due to some sort of paint or metal irregularity, actually bounced UP as well as sideways off the flag pole, which itself was located some 425 feet from home plate.
I figured that was the only time in his career that Roberto hit three blasts, but he had at least one other, against the Reds. Not exactly a straight-up comparison, but hitting four homers in a game is sort of like pitching a perfect game, while three homers isn’t (or at least wasn’t prior to the steroids era) much easier than pitching a no-hitter.
I could sit around and listen to you talk about willie Mays all day.
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Apr 25, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah that Willie guy was alright
Why does Sabean always look constipated?
by TexasRanger on Apr 25, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
The reason
Willie Mays was the reason two players in different sports and different parts of the country — Rick Barry and Rickey Henderson — wore #24.
Rick Barry was amazing!
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Yeah, he really was. He is far too often overlooked in the national basketball consciousness.
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Amazing player indeed
Rick Barry was indeed an amazing basketball player, one whose legend was perhaps slightly diminished because he defected to the old ABA for several years.
But when Rick came up, he moved very well and was darn hard to stop going to the hoop. In his second season, he averaged something like 35 points, even though at that time he was more scorer than shooter. For a white guy, he could really go to the hole.
In the ABA, Rick suffered a serious knee injury. That changed him from a great player going to the hoop to merely a good-to-very-good one. So he worked on his jump shot (somewhat as the young Michael Jordan also did) and became one of the top snipers in the game.
Where Rick was even greater than as a scorer, though, was in his ability to pass. Aside from Larry Bird, I think Rick was the best passing forward the game has seen. Rick was great at going up for a jump shot, then spotting an open teammate under the hoop. He was also quite accomplished on the pick and roll, which he executed repeatedly with center Clifford Ray when the Warriors won the NBA title in 1974-75.
And while Rick often drilled his passes into a small hole, he also had a great soft touch on breakaway passes over the top of the defense. I felt with that kind of touch as well as the ability to drill the basketball, it would have been easy for him to be an NFL quarterback. Mobility to escape the rush, the ability to drill a pass and a soft touch. If he could do it with a basketball, think how much easier it would have been to accomplish with a football.
Back to Willie Mays, while many thought he could have been a great running back or receiver, I used to wonder how his great instincts would have played at free safety or his great reactions would have fared at cornerback.
Speaking of Willie’s reactions, he once played golf with a Chronicle sports columnist whose name I believe was Len Rosenbaum. Willie topped a grass-burner drive which hit the ladies’ tee and shot back at him. According to Rosenbaum, Willie casually caught the screaming rebound, placed the ball back on the the tee and re-hit his drive almost before anyone could realize what was happening.
For anyone who realizes how easy — yet at the same time somehow incredibly exciting — Willie could make playing with a ball look, this story isn’t at all hard to visualize.
Randy Winn
Before his triple last night, Randy Winn was 1-for-31. The biggest diffference is that Randy didn’t strike out 13 times during tthat stretch. Perhaps a bigger bother is also that thus far, Randy has shown more power than Wendell.
Since he got on base and improved month by month last season, I wasn’t as disappointed in Wendell’s 2008 season as some. But the area I was most surpised at and disappointed in was his lack of power.
You nailed it
You nailed it. And THAT is how they scored — by being very precise in their actions. :)
Instead of worrying about a raw prospect like Wendell
maybe people should be worrying about our supposed polished prospects like Conor Gillaspie (good OBP, but no power, I saw his one HR in person btw) or Nick Noonan who has been striking out a lot for someone with such great plate discipline, lawls.
After one month of his first full pro season? I’m not worried yet.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Apr 24, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
"Ward, I'm worried about the Beaver."
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
FYI
Fairley was rated a Top 20 prospect by Baseball America for the Arizona Rookie League (albeit 20th if I recall correctly).
Per the injury bug comment, he was slowed by shoulder tendinitis in instructional league in 2007, high left ankle sprain early in the 2008 season that affected him for three months, and now this injury to his shoulder. So not so good.
When he was drafted, BA thought he was the best all-around high school athlete in the 2007 draft, hit .538 with 9 HR, went 9-2 as pitcher, and drew interest from Division I football as a wide receiver. They thought he had the highest ceiling except for Villalona, after the 2007 season.
For this year, BA noted:
Positives: top athlete; tremendous bat speed (like Lewis); strength that gives him some of the best power potential in system; scored top marks in vision-tracking test Giants give (Giants Tech!); well-above-average speed; plus arm strength
Negatives: raw; still learning to pick up breaking pitches (lack of quality curveballs from high schoolers in Miss.); figuring out how to work counts, bunt, steal bases.
So, from what BA said, it looks like the sky is the limit for him, but he’s basically starting from the ground, as far as professional baseball goes. And when he’s healthy, which has been rare as a Giant, he has produced, just look at his last month’s performance in 2008, it was crazy good, except for his power. But power don’t always show up right away, for some it takes a while.
But they did drop him from 8th to 12th in their ranking. However, it is not as bad as that sounds, as Posey, Adrianza, Gillaspie, Rodriguez, and Barnes were new additions to the list.
I would agree that it’s early to worry, particularly because of the injury, but even without knowing that, clearly he’s still learning a lot of stuff, as he’s very raw, so I wouldn’t worry unless he’s still this bad after a couple of months, and given this injury, who knows how long before he’s physically healthy?
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Apr 24, 2009 2:43 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Good stuff
Good stuff from BA here — although I certainly don’t think he is the best power prospect the Giants have. At the very least, Villalona and now Kieschnick are ahead of. Posey too.
Fairley was indeed considered to be a very fine prospect. He dropped to #29 overall in great part because of some off-field issues which didn’t really concern the Giants.
I’m really hoping Wendell makes it, particularly since the Giants aren’t exactly brimming with center field prospects. The potential is there, but man is he raw. Hopefully it’s just the injuries, but he’s making the young Fred Lewis look like a polished prospect coming out of college.
While Wendell didn’t attend college, he is already 21 years off age. Fred was 21 in his first minor-league season, batting .322 in short-season A ball, the level in between that at which Wendell played last season and his level this season. Fred didn’t really show much more power than Wendell has, and struck out at about the same rate. Wendell hit only .259 last season in Rookie Ball.
Forgot to mention
I loved the pun. That’s one of my favorite kids cartoon, Fairly Odd Parents.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Apr 24, 2009 3:31 PM PDT reply actions
If he hasn’t beat out any grounders, it’s very possible some have been hard hit.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
Good point
That is a good point, one which I had thought of as well. Wendell didn’t totally scuff any of his 11 ground balls, or as you mention, he would have beaten at least one out. But he also didn’t hit them hard enough and away from the fielders enough to get one through — or even off a glove on a tough play.
I do have some good news concerning Wendell though. Tonight he went 2-for-4 (both singles) with "only " one strikeout. Perhaps he read this thread and said, “Well, it’s time to get going.” :)
Ground balls
Speaking of the importance of ground balls to a fast hitter (and possibly to a cannibal, as well), one of the big differences in Manny Burriss’s .165 at San Jose in 2007 and his .300+ after being demoted to Augusta was that he beat out only one ground ball in San Jose but 18 on the other coast.
Manny’s increase in his ground ball rate last season gave me some hope for him at the plate, but as much as I like him, he probably needs another year of seasoning as I had first suspected. Manny appears to be the kind of guy you would like to take to dinner though. A genuinely nice kid.
He made great strides from the left side last season, too. But after his very fine spring, 2009 has been a big struggle.
Ground balls
I can’t believe you went there.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
Well
Well, not personally. :) But as one cannibal said to the other, “Have a ball, Lucille!” Makes me Desi just thinking about it.
I went to a cannibal party once...
They served open-face sandwiches and other finger foods
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
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