Deeper Prospectin'

by tedfordfan on Apr 21, 2009 6:15 AM PDT Comment 34 comments

Though I appreciate the optimism surrounding our hitting prospects (I did, after all, author the fanpost trying to cheer everyone up a few weeks back), I wonder if it is sustainable. Thus, I decided to look a bit deeper at the stats. Yes, yes - I know - small sample size. But I thought I'd take a look and see if there was anything interesting.

Now I am, by no means, a super-stat guy. For that, go to Chris (aka, Xanthan - or 00110101110111000101010101001 among friends). But I do know a little bit and thought I'd share what I found out. I got the stats from www.firstinning.com. If you know that these stats are unreliable or know of a better site for getting these stats, please let me know.

Would someone please give guidelines for what is average in each of these stats? Here is what I general look for (although you have to look at all the stats in conjunction with one another):

K% > 20% is bad.

BB% > 10% is good.

LD% > 20% is good.

BABIP = .12 + LD% (roughly)

ISO > .200 is good.

Here are the stats:

Name (BB% K% ISO BABIP LD%)

Angel Villalona (2.3% / 14% / .244 / .438 / 18%)

Nick Noonan (9.6% / 28.8% / .209 / .500 / 17%)

Buster Posey (17.9% / 16.1% / .283 / .441 / 20%)

Conor Gillaspie (20% / 16.4% / .091 / .353 / 14%)

Roger Kieschnick (6.1% / 24.5% / .066 / .344 / 24%)

Brandon Crawford (9.8% / 23.5% / .279 / .464 / 7%)

Thomas Neal (9.1% / 36.4% / .108 / .450 / 24%)

Ehire Adrianza (8.6% / 14.3% / .096 / .200 / 8%)

Wendell Fairley (14.8% / 33.3% / .087 / .143 / n/a)

Jackson Williams (20% / 23.3% / .083 / .412 / 19%)

John Bowker (17.4% / 15.2% / .079 / .355 / 24%)

What jumped out at me:

- Pretty much all of the above hitters have been lucky with balls put into play. The only exceptions are Kieschnick, Adrianza, (probably) Fairley, and Bowker.

- Kieschnick is hitting the ball hard. He has contact issues (high K%) but is drawing a few walks (although I expected more). I think the power will come. I'm surprised, because I wasn't very high on him.

- I was high on Thomas Neal, but he's been luck with balls in play (although he has at least hit the ball hard when he makes contact), is striking out a ton, not hitting for power, but drawing a few walks. Pick it up, Tommy.

- Bowker is in the same boat as Kieschnick, but is drawing a lot more walks and striking out way less than he has in the past. Long live Bowkermania!

- Brandon Crawford is getting absurdly lucky on balls put into play. He's not making solid contact and is striking out a bit too much - although his walk rate is decent. Noonan and Villalona are also getting luck in balls put into play, although they are at least making pretty consistently good contact. On the plus side, all of them are showing excellent power, and Noonan is drawing way more walks than he has in the past (although his is striking out a lot more as well)

- Buster Posey is awesome, but a tad lucky.

- If Jackson Williams keeps it up, he'll be a very good backup catcher to Posey for the next decade.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Comments

I like what I see from Gillaspie. If only he could spend a little more time in the weight room.

Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...

by rotorueter on Apr 21, 2009 7:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

BODY BIAS

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Apr 21, 2009 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

TURKEY MIKE'S BBQ!!!

He will look like Sandoval in no time….

Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM

Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!

by merkin on Apr 21, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is an evil thing to say so close to lunch (for me)

Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...

by rotorueter on Apr 21, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

then you don't want to

CLICK HERE

Tommy Lasorda HATES GIANTSBOARD.COM

Say Hey! Say Who? Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!

by merkin on Apr 21, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

John Bowker, still lining those drives.

by Evan on Apr 21, 2009 7:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I know how to make them all hit better

bring them up to SF immediately and let them swing at first pitches in the dirt for a few weeks.

It does wonders for player development.

Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."

by natteringnabob on Apr 21, 2009 7:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I see what you did there

by Fresburg on Apr 21, 2009 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing to keep in mind is that the average BABIP is almost always higher at lower levels of baseball. Also, the .12 + LD% isn’t terribly accurate. Now, if someone has a line like Crawford’s, it is pretty clear he’s getting lucky, but a .400 BABIP in A+ isn’t automatically lucky.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.

by marcello on Apr 21, 2009 8:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

maybe not just luck

but some spillover from being in this Murderer’s Row of A Ball… they have to pitch to somebody and I don’t think they’re picking Posey, AnVil, Honus Wagner, etc. in that lineup. Maybe when the tickets to Connecticut are handed out to the phenoms the pitches he gets will be a little less juicy.

Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."

by natteringnabob on Apr 21, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Both true

But pretty much everyone in that lineup has a BABIP of .12 + LD% +.1 or more, which is pretty significant and unsustainable, if you ask me.

Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?

by tedfordfan on Apr 21, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know...

you alluded to it in your intro but the sample size makes this stat breakdown completely meaningless. I like the manner in which you constructed it and would be interested in seeing a similar analysis later in the season but at this time it’s pointless.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Apr 21, 2009 9:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Just seeing if people were interested.

Maybe I’ll do this monthly at the end of each month.

Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?

by tedfordfan on Apr 21, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely would like that.

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Apr 21, 2009 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great stuff!

This is great stuff. Keep up the good work.

by sharksrog on Apr 21, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not convinced yet on the value of using BABIP for hitters.

by Dan from NM on Apr 21, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The great library of knowledge (wikipedia), says this about BABIP:

BABIP=(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)
“Some analysts include reached base on error (RBOE) in the numerator, while others exclude SF from the denominator. "

I hope SF is factored positively in these numbers, as anyone who has witnessed an Aurillia AB can testify to.

by KrazyKrabMeat on Apr 21, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t get it, SF does not stand for fixing batting gloves. O, maybe it means “smooshes fingers”

adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson

by foothillsfan on Apr 21, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sfaked fbunts?

Wisconsin: Famous for dairy, Ryan Rohlinger and not much else.

by Scottsdale on Apr 21, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m half-convinced. It is helpful in suggesting when a player is being lucky, but it definitely has its useful limits.

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Apr 21, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I find it to be remarkably accurate. Batters can definitely affect it to some degree, but the fact is that the vast majority of them hang around .300. Over the past three years, only 6 players kept a BABIP over .350, and only 6 kept one under .250. In other words, the absolutely elite BABIPers are better than the absolutely terrible ones by only 40%.Compare it to other skills – elite power hitters are better than terrible ones by 370% (top five have Isolated Slugging above .280, bottom five below .075), elite walkers are better than terrible ones by 400% (top five BB% over 16%, bottom five below 4%), and terrible Kers strike out more often than elite ones by 330% (K% > 28.5%, < 9.5%).

Compared to all of those, a 40% differnce is pretty marginal. Players simply don’t have nearly as much control over their balls in play as they do over things like walks or strike outs.

Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!

I hope.

by Cookyman on Apr 21, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not saying I don’t believe it — more that I’m just undecided at this point. I’ll give it another look.

by Dan from NM on Apr 21, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very well described

This is very well described, Cookyman.

by sharksrog on Apr 21, 2009 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What kind of person refers to their friend as “5ÜU”?

Wisconsin: Famous for dairy, Ryan Rohlinger and not much else.

by Scottsdale on Apr 21, 2009 1:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand

how Crawford can have an ISO of .279 but only 7% LD.. He’s obviously hitting it hard if he is getting extra base hits constantly right?

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Apr 21, 2009 5:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Not necessarily

Could be bloops down the line, or grounders that find holes along the line.

Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?

by tedfordfan on Apr 21, 2009 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention

Not to mention that most extra base hits come on fly balls, particularly home runs, of which Brandon is tied for the San Jose lead with three. I agree, though, that the high BABIP compared with the low line drive rate does indicate Brandon has likely been hitting in good luck. I know from watching that one of Brandon’s home runs was somewhat wind-aided.

by sharksrog on Apr 21, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comments

Angel Villalona still isn’t walking (although he got his only two of the season tonight, one of them intentional), but he’s done a GREAT job of reducing his strikeouts thus far.

Nick Noonan’s BABIP is clearly unsustainable, and his strikeouts are still far too high. But he IS doing a much better job of drawing walks this season.

Buster Posey, Conor Gillaspie and Jackson Williams have done a fabulous job of drawing walks, and both Buster and Conor have kept their strikeout rates nicely under control. Buster has, however, struck out seven times in his past five games after fanning just twice in his first seven.

Kieschnick is striking out far too much and not hitting for nearly enough power thus far — but his 24% line drive rate is quite impressive and would seem to indicate he hasn’t been hitting in the best of luck.

Crawford is striking out too much, but has shown surprising power for a middle infielder and has done a nice job of drawing walks.

Thomas Neal and especially the less powerful Wendell Fairley are striking out WAY too much, alhtough both are drawing walks well — again, especially Fairley. Wendell improved significantly each month of last season. It appears he needs to continue to do so this season to remain a high prospect. It’s early, but Wendell is digging himself a big hole.

by sharksrog on Apr 21, 2009 10:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wendell Fairley

is still very young – especially regarding actual playing time. I agree with your basic assessment, but consider:

- He only spent half a season of professional ball last year.
- Lost lots of time in instrux due to lingering injuries.
- And he split time in high school between football and baseball.

So, even though he’s a bit older than the other 07 draftees, he’s got a lot of development time in front of him. He might have a development curve like Fred Lewis – who came out of college, not high school.

Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?

by tedfordfan on Apr 22, 2009 5:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's early but it could be getting late

What is most worrisome about Wendell Fairley so far this season isn’t his .138 batting average. It is that he has struck out 13 times in 29 at bats. This from a guy who isn’t anything approaching a power hitter.

I like Wendell’s swing. I’m merely disappointed with the results he has gotten with it to date. As I mentioned, though, the two good things about Wendell last season were that he drew walks and improved each month as his season progressed. But, MAN, has he got a lot of improving to do this year. I mean, when you’re batting just .138 with an almost respectable .250 BABIP, you’re really hurting. Striking out almost once every two at bats just doesn’t cut it.

by sharksrog on Apr 22, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This from a guy who isn’t anything approaching a power hitter.

Way, way too early to conclude this. He’s a big, strong, athletic kid. If his power numbers aren’t showing a year or two from now, then I’ll start worrying. Power is usually the last thing to develop in prospects.

Agree with pretty much everything else.

Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?

by tedfordfan on Apr 23, 2009 6:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let me clarify

Wendell is indeed a big, strong kid, who is extremely athletic, as is shown by his football background.

But thus far he has been an anti-power hitter. Thus far in his minor league career, Wendell has only 10 extra base hits among his 55 knocks. I hope he DOES approach being a power hitter, but thus far he hasn’t.

Wendell isn’t yet anytthing approaching a power hitter. To be honest, he hasn’t yet become anything approaching a HITTER. I originally had higher expectations for Wendell than I had for Fred Lewis. At this point, I have reversed that ranking — and I’m not as high on Fred as are most here.

by sharksrog on Apr 23, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The K’s on Crawford are not that worrying to me as long as he also keeps drawing those walks as well. Personally the only thing I am getting most tired of on the Big club ( even more then the lack of Run Dingers.exe) is the amount of times the side if retired in under 16 pitches.
I
n an era when most clubs want a starter to go 7 IP on 100-120 pitches they are banking on 15-17 pitches getting 3 outs. Anything that disrupts that gets their middle relief arms (by definition the least reliable arms) in the game this in turn increase your chance to score while they have less outs to counter it.

Where is my beer & chili dog?

by daveinexile on Apr 22, 2009 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

K's

I tend to look at a player’s ratio of strikeouts to walks plus power. If the batter walks a lot, he can post a high OBP without hitting for a high average. If he hits a lot of homers, he can hit for a decent average without having an ungodly (and unsustainable) BABIP.

In Brandon Crawford’s case, he hit is team-leading fourth home run today, leading Madison Bumgarner and the Giants to Mad Bum’s third win, as Madison yielded his first earned run of the season, but only one in five innings of an 8-1 win.

His 1.153 OPS is extremely impressive. His 4 homers in 51 at bats is excellent. His 6 walks are good. But his 17 strikeouts in those 51 at bats is a bit worrisome. Brandon is hitting a highly impressive .373, but even with the four homers, it has taken him a .500 BABIP to do so. That just isn’t going to continue.

If Brandon continues to strike out once every three at bats, he almost certainly won’t even wind up at .300 on the season. I am extremely impressed with what he has accomplished so far this season. I would say he has been the biggest surprise in the Giants minors thus far.

It’s just that I’m disapponited by the manner in which he has made his accomplishments. His extremely high strikeout rate puts a damper on things for me.

I do think Brandon will advance his status as a prospect this year. I just don’t think he’ll wind up advancing it nearly as much as his gaudy stats to date might lead one to believe. Each player needs to greatly improve his ability to put the bat on the ball in order to be highly successful.

Brandon’s BABIP is .500, and Fred’s actually exceeds .500 (and exceeded .600 until today). Neither of those factors is going to continue. Each player needs to make a SIGNIFICANT improvement in his strikeout rate to come anywhere near continuing his early-season success.

by sharksrog on Apr 22, 2009 10:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs