Wow!
by sharksrog on Apr 18, 2009 3:47 PM PDT
97 comments
Great control by Tim Lincecum today. His velocity was still down a touch. (Remember, two days ago he was out sick and was even examined for the possibility of a serious problem.) But this might have been the best control he has shown.
Not sure of the exact number of strikes he threw in his 98 pitches, but I think it was right around 75. His 13 strikeouts came on five curves, three fastballs, three change ups and two sliders. Many of Tim's called balls seemed to just miss.
You no doubt saw Tim as quoted that his rhythm problem was caused by a lack of timing between his forward thrust and his back torque as he generates that thrust. This was resulting in an inconsistent landing spot and also a lower release point, which can cause the fastball to sail sideways more and his curve to dive into the dirt.
Tim said he looked at video, which he has done nearly all his life but probably got away from now that he's in the majors. Tim's dad told me Tim had figured it out or soon would.
I think we can safely say he had it figured out today. One of the best starts of his career. Probably his most efficient. To have more strikeouts (13) than pitches per inning (12.1) is quite an accomplishment, particularly for a power pitcher.
Tim next pitches a week from today. I think there is a chance the Giants will have scored again by that time. :)
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This is why I think today’s game was overall a good one. It’s a lot more important for Licecum to be back on track than for the Giants to win this game.
Bruce Bochy would like you to look at the career numbers and stop complaining.
by cheno on Apr 18, 2009 3:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know about that. Was anybody really worried that Lincecum had two bad starts? I would have rather he pitched poorly and we won the damn game
Proud new dad of Edgardo errr Edgar Renteria!!!
by rxmeister on Apr 18, 2009 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was.
Fueled by the many reports of his visble distress.
Good to see he got himself back in his own personal dual axial positractional differential rotation , or whatever he and his dad cooked up in their backyard Balco.
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Apr 18, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on Apr 18, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
really?
et tu oldjacket? You’re a smart dude!!! 2 starts hardly qualifies as a blip on the sample size radar.
Flossing a dead horse
by kenshin1 on Apr 18, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know, but diminished velocity always scares me.
Three bad starts in a row would have edged me towards panic.
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on Apr 18, 2009 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The velocity was down all day, even though he hit 95 on the last pitch.
Low 90’s and great secondary stuff+control is still a great recipe for success, it might even be a better one than mid 90’s and average control.
by MonkeyChow on Apr 18, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he’s just choosing a better allocation of speed and control, then that doesn’t make me that nervous. When it just seems like he’s lost some zip, w/o a corresponding increase in control, then I start rocking back and forth and sucking my thumb.
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on Apr 18, 2009 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
Bruce Bochy would like you to look at the career numbers and stop complaining.
by cheno on Apr 18, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn’t.
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on Apr 18, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not. at. all.
and I said that before today. He was and is fine. He was striking the shit out of batters, the rest was sure to fall into place
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
by bondslegend on Apr 18, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
“Worried”? No. “Concerned”? Yes.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 19, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Personally I Am Pissed That Bochy Didn't Let Timmy Pitch The 9th.
Tim’s pitch count was just 98 after 8 innings. I just can not understand not letting him pitch the 9th when he was so dominate and obviously not at all fatiged.
by giantsrainman on Apr 18, 2009 4:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sick and perhaps tired
We probably shouldn’t forget that in addition to his rhythm problems, Tim was very sick on Thursday and was checked out for any serious problem just yesterday. For him to throw 98 pitches and be throwing as hard in the eighth as in the first was quite an accomplishment in itself.
by sharksrog on Apr 18, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
then why let him bat in the seventh with two runners on base in a scoreless tie if you’re concerned about his health and pitch count? You might as well pull him there when you have a rare chance to score a run.
Proud new dad of Edgardo errr Edgar Renteria!!!
by rxmeister on Apr 18, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
82 pitches
I did expect Tim to be pinch hit for there, but he had thrown only 82 pitches at that point.
by sharksrog on Apr 19, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand it now. GRM is secretly Bochy trying to lobby for the chance to pull a Dusty Baker and run another pitcher into the ground. Wins! Must be a mediocre team, or else! oh no, what will Bruce Jenkins write now?!
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
by haverecords on Apr 18, 2009 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The ONLY way Lincecum should not have started the 9th inning is if he told Rags or Bochy it was time to pull him. If Lincecum did not beg out then he should still be pitching.
by wilriv21 on Apr 18, 2009 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Much For Timmy "Begging Out"
Bochy let Lincecum hit with two on and two outs in the seventh (he grounded out), but would not let him start the ninth, even though the 24-year-old told coaches he felt fine.
Now I am really pissed. This is just flat ass stupid!
by giantsrainman on Apr 18, 2009 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s not made of porcelain!
Bruce Bochy would like you to look at the career numbers and stop complaining.
by cheno on Apr 18, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He probably said he felt fine before his previous two starts as well.
The Giants have had problems in the past with young pitchers overestimating their own kinesiological acumen (Foppert, for instance).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Apr 18, 2009 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, it’s early in the season, he’s probably still kind of sick – the worst thing would be to burn him out early. 98 pitches isn’t nothing. It’s okay not to push him so hard now. Who knows, it’s not entirely impossible we will put together a run later in the year (unlikely, but you never can tell). Then hopefully he will be fresh if we need him to carry the team.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Apr 18, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wins Matter
This was a shot at a win and Lincecum was the best option and giving him another inning did not add any real risk just imaginary risk.
by giantsrainman on Apr 18, 2009 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think affeldt and wilson also deserve some confidence. If we’re afraid to put them in situations where they need to get important outs, why are they the main guys in our pen?
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Apr 18, 2009 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Am Not Afrand I Just Trust Timmy More And There Was No Good Reason To Remove Timmy
by giantsrainman on Apr 19, 2009 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small Sample Size Theatre
For that projected extra inning I trust Wilson less than I trust Tim.
Wilson has been as erratic RIGHT AWAY (S/O…then suddenly I CAN’T THROW A DAMN STRIKE!) as Benitez was , and Tim wasn’t breaking down (NO walks!). If I’m considering the estimated performance for one inning’s work I know who I’d go with.
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Apr 19, 2009 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take that back
Wilson =/= Benitez
Not even close!
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Apr 19, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is the Magic Number of pitches?
At what pitch count would you have let Lincecum continue to pitch in this game?
A) 88
B) 90
c) 95
If Lincecum was at pitch count 98 after 6 innings would you have let him continue ot pulled him?
by wilriv21 on Apr 18, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He Was At Just 98 Pitches
He threw 16 in the 8th striking out the last two batters and only alowing a lead off single. He velocity and control were just as good in the 8th as they were in the 1st. There was zero reason to remove him.
by giantsrainman on Apr 18, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In my life, I've never seen a pitcher lose it between innings.
And certainly never late in the game, early into the season, after two bad starts and a poor spring.
Nope.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Apr 18, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not Relevent
The Giants could have started the 9th with Lincecum and gone to Wilson if he showed actual signs of this. This would of been the right and smart play.
by giantsrainman on Apr 18, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How would Tim pitching the 9th helped the Giants’ offense?
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 19, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blanks’ defense , numb with awe at his longevity , becomes irongloved.
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Apr 19, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he throws enough strikes
the world spins in the opposite direction, and the negative pull will cause all those GIDPs to sail into the Cove, changing the score from 0-0 to INF-0.
Silly rabbit.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
by natteringnabob on Apr 19, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simple
It is much easier to hit in the 9th when a run scored wins the game then it is to hit in the 9th trying to tie up the game. Pitching Tim in the 9th was the best shot at the a bottom of the 9th with the game still tied 0-0.
by giantsrainman on Apr 19, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That scenario assumes that the bullpen giving up a run was a sure thing.
Ultimately, it did, but, in general, a team’s setup men and closer are extremely likely to put up a 0 in any given inning of work. Probably more likely than a winded starter (depending on the specific pitchers and circumstances).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Apr 19, 2009 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No,It Just Assumes That Tim Is More Likely To Not Allow A Run Then The Bullpen.
by giantsrainman on Apr 19, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clearly
Clearly Tim is less likely to allow a run than anyone in the bullpen. Although as he pitches more deeply into a game, it becomes much closer.
But was Saturday really about winning the game — or was it more about ensuring Tim was at top health entering the rest of the season?
Let’s look at this realistically. Is one more win by Tim going to place the Giants in the 2009 playoffs? I would say the odds are down to 5% at best.
Is Tim being at his best in the decade of the 2010’s likely to help the Giants win two or three World Series? That’s a far more realistic possibility — and a much more exciting one.
Why risk slaying the goose that lays the golden eggs when the Giants aren’t going to be dining at the playoff table, anyway?
by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Just Don't Get This Fear
I don’t seen any real measureable risk from allowing Timmy to pitch the 9th and increase his pitch count to somewhere in the neighborhood of 110 to 115 vs the 98 he stoped at. To me this is virtually zero risk.
by giantsrainman on Apr 20, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More seriously though...
I’m not a big fan of the “I’ll leave him in until he allows a baserunner” approach to dealing w/ starting pitchers late in the game. If you’re going to pull the pitcher if he isn’t perfect, then I think you should just go to the pen right away. If you send a guy out there thinking that he has to finish the frame in ten pitches or less (which is the position I suspect Bochy was in right there), then pitcher himself is probably going to be thinking about it on the mound, and the opposing team is too; it’s just a bad situation. Starting with a fresh frame gives the reliever as much time as he needs to warm up and try to avoid putting him in a position to fail with men on base.
that’s my $0.02. I probably also would have pinch-hit for Lincecum in the 7th. Like I said, I trust the bullpen more than the lineup.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Apr 18, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Am Agnostic On PItch Hitting Or Not In The 7th
Either decision would have been fine with me.
by giantsrainman on Apr 18, 2009 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I AM Agnostic , Period.
Rainy , I think the term you wanted there was “Jingoistic”.
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Apr 19, 2009 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If wins matter, as stated above
how can you be indifferent to pinchhitting when his turn came up?
Even the Giants’ bench has a better chance than Tim to get a hit, score a run, and thus actually possibly win a game as opposed to playing scoreless until PG&E starts cutting power to the city in the summertime.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
by natteringnabob on Apr 19, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simple
The increase in the likeyhood of the Giants scoring in the bottom of the seventh are about the same as the increase in the likelyhood of the DBacks scoring in the 8th or 9th against the bullpen instead of Timmy.
by giantsrainman on Apr 19, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A new thing to add to my “Things I’m Thankful For” list:
- GRM doesn’t manage the Giants
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 19, 2009 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do The Math If You Think I Am Wrong
Show me that the increased odds of the Giants scoring by pinch hitting for Lincecum with two out and runners at 1st and 2nd in the 7th is higher then the increased odds of the DBacks scoring against any combinatioon of Affeldt, Howry, and Wilson instead of Lincecum in the 8th and 9th. I haven’t done the math either because I think the difference is too small to matter but if you are so sure I am wrong have at it. Otherwise, you have no point.
by giantsrainman on Apr 19, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
did someone say math?
OK, 1st and 2nd in the 7th 2 outs. PH OBP (generously .333), Lincecum OBP .184.
We’ll ignore slugging, we will also assume the game always ends 1-0 (or tied in extras).
So, there is a 18% chance lincecum gets on and extends the 7ths. Realistically, he’s either going to walk or single – but I will give them a 10% of scoring without PH (because lots of times Winn has to get a hit also).
For a PH – we will assuming sometimes he hits doubles, etc., so give him 20% of plating a run (again, it could fall to Winn here again).
Either way, the Giants in 2009 are scoring 0.38 R/Inning (note: it’s like they face TIM LINCECUM EVERY DAY)… hmmm that doesn’t seem fair because in 08 they scored 0.45 R/Inning and they were awful. I’ll give them 0.45 R/IP
Lincecum’s RA/IP is about 0.4 at Home. Now, maybe he’s “dealing” so that value is high, but he is certainly worse in the 8th/9th innings, so we’ll call it a wash.
SO:
Bochy manuever:
10% of scoring in the 7th
45% of scoring in the 8th
45% of scoring in the 9th
(total: 1 – ((1 – 0.1)(1-0.45)(1-0.45)) = 73% chance they score.
Lincecum in 8th (0.4 R/inning)
A/H/W allow over career 0.47 R/Inning
So, that’s 32% of blanking the blanks, and a 68% chance of them scoring.
Giants 1-0: 23%
Blanks 1-0: 18%
1-1 tie: 50%
0-0 tie: 9%
Now, under the GRM plan, we take the 20% chance of scoring in the 7th, but run out the rellievers for the 8th and 9th.
Now giants have an 85% chance of scoring 1, but the blanks have gone up to 71%
Giants 1-0: 25%
Blanks 1-0: 11%
1-1 tie: 61%
0-0 tie: 3%
I am going to ignore the leave Lincecum in for 8th/9th, it’s clearly slightly better than the Bochy path IF AND ONLY IF Lincecum retains his effectiveness in the 9th and has essentially zero risk of injury.
Note that the GRM method may look a little better, but part of that is cancelled by using an extra inning of bullpen, which has a cost – consider that 64% of the time the game is still tied going into the 10th. Bochy’s method might be better again if you compare the second rank of bullpen guys on both teams, and Arizonas was better (they do better in a longer game).
Other possible corrections: 20% chance of scoring with a PH might be a little high. Also, if you assume (not difficult) that Arizona is in general a better team of batters, they should win the higher order terms (multiple runs!) more often.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Apr 20, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was hoping to find some pitch-count splits to test this theory, instead , I found something interesting
Lincecum OPS against after 100 pitches: .593
Lincecum OPS allowed in the ninth inning: 1.485
One could argue, if they willfully ignored sample saize (only 12 AB in the ninth) and overblow his poor performance in "pressure of his major league debut and opening day appearance, that Lincecum has a bit of a mental problem.
More interesting, I found out that Lincecum’s middle name is LeRoy. Which make him the real King, and that Felix character in Seattle a pretender.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Apr 19, 2009 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A funny comment
When I had dinner with Tim’s dad about 13 months ago, I asked him where the middle name LEE-roy came from. I was quickly corrected that it was actually le-ROY, which I later found out did indeed mean “The King.”Now, looking at the nice analysis you did of Tim’s OPS after 100 pitches and his OPS in the ninth inning, let’s see if we can break it down a bit.As for the ninth inning, the first time Tim reached the ninth inning was August 21, 2007. I had fabulous seats just below the press box and right behind the plate. Best seats I have ever enjoyed at AT&T.Tim had pitched as well through the first eight innings as he did on Saturday. He had done so primarily with fastballs, and had actually thrown about the same number of pitches through seven innings as he threw through seven on Saturday. Not as many strikeouts (7), but FABULOUS control just as on Saturday, with his fastball inducing many ground balls. In fact, Tim’s 14 ground ball outs that night were the second-highest of his career.There was one added similarity that night, and one distinct difference.The similarity was that as was the case Saturday, Tim threw more pitches in the eighth inning than he threw in any of the previous seven.The difference was that on that night Tim lost control of his fastball high and actually got the last two strikes of his inning-ending strikeout of pinch hitter Darryl Ward with his change. (You know, the one Mike Krukow keeps saying he didn’t have until 2008.)In the ninth inning of that game, Bengie Molina ignored Tim’s loss of command of his fastball and had Tim throw five straight fastballs to start the ninth. Four of them were up in the zone, and three of them became hits. The result was that Tim was pulled from the game, which the bullpen quickly allowed to blow open.Would Tim have pitched OK in the ninth inning that night had Bengie been awake and called for more change ups and curves in the ninth? My guess is yes, although there is no way to know.With the exception of the eighth, Tim had been very precise with his fastball, and I’m sure Bengie called all fastballs so that Tim would run less risk of walking the tying run on base in a 1-0 game.Would Tim have pitched better in the ninth on Saturday than he did that August night in 2007? Probably, although it certainly wasn’t guaranteed.Did I think it was a good idea to bring Tim out for the ninth that night? Yes, although I would certainy have had the bullpen ready, which in fact Bruce Bochy did.
Did I think it was a good idea to bring Tim out for the ninth on Saturday? Well, I expected that he WOULD be left in the game, but when he was pulled, I could certainly see the reasoning behind it.
Again, why risk Tim in a game that when the season is over, we will likely realize was relatively meaningless?
by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Season Over After Just 12 Games?
This is about as crazy a comment as I have ever read here at the McCoven.
by giantsrainman on Apr 20, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No… WHEN the season is over we will likely REALIZE it was RELATIVELY meaningless. A most sensible statement.
Hi, I am Johnny Disaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Apr 20, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty close
I would say you’re not far from being right here, Rainman. Tim’s not an automatic out at the plate any more than the pinch hitter would have delivered an automatic hit.And in the seventh inning I think Tim threw only 10 pitches, giving him only 82 for the game. While not a sure bet to put up another zero in the eighth, I think we can all agree that it was likely.Do you see the difference after he threw 16 or 17 pitches in the eighth inning? That’s not a lot of pitches per inning, and in fact is likely about the number of pitches per inning he will average this season. But I am pretty sure it was the most pitches he threw in any of his eight innings. Entering the eighth inning, he had averaged fewer than a dozen pitches per frame.
IMO, Tim’s chances of throwing a scoreless ninth inning were somewhat less than his chances of throwing a scoreless inning entering the eighth. And with his having already thrown 99 pitches despite being sick two days prior, having by all accounts lost weight, seen his average fastball speed decline by two mph from last season, just regained his rhythm after fighting it for most of his previous half dozen starts, and having thrown more pitches than anyone else last season, what was the point?
by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Point (Reward) Was To Win The Game
The risk was about as close to zero as one can get.
by giantsrainman on Apr 20, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Risk
Dusty? Is that you?
Hi, I am Johnny Disaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Apr 20, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Am Not saying Remove Him If He allows A Baserunner
I Am saying remove him if he shows signs of either fatigue or loss of effectiveness which are not the same as allowing a base runner. Timmy after all had 5 inning previously in which he had allowed a base runner. I also would have had no problem with letting Timmy’s pitchcount in the 9th approch 20 if that is what it took to get 3 outs and he did it without looking like he was starting to get fatigued or loss his effectiveness.
by giantsrainman on Apr 18, 2009 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tough to see him getting to twenty without displaying control and/or hitability issues, though.
both signing of fatigue and/or ineffectiveness.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Apr 18, 2009 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends On How Many Pitches Are Fouled Off
I agree not likely but an AB that approches 10 pitches with just two balls does happen.
by giantsrainman on Apr 18, 2009 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying
you might pull Zitooooooooooooooo the other night before he actually loaded the bases? That’s why there’s a bullpen, to have some poor bugger come in to try to get 3 outs with the bases loaded without a run scoring.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
by natteringnabob on Apr 19, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see the connection.
Zito wasn’t up against any theoretical pitch count limit going into that inning.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Apr 19, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But He Didn't Look Or Pitch Fine
You are correct that you can’t go by just what he says. But you have to have a reason beyond fear of pitch count zelots especially when you haven’t even reached a pitch count that this silly religion calls for the removing the pitcher.
by giantsrainman on Apr 18, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stupid?
I find it intriguing that you are saying that pulling Tim was stupid, when many others are saying how stupid it was for Bruce to overuse Tim last season. Might the truth lie somewhere in between?
by sharksrog on Apr 19, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pulling Tim now was part of a brilliant strategy
to save his arm for overuse down the stretch.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Apr 19, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nicely put!
Very nicely put, Bhaakon. Thanks for putting this topic back into proper perspective.
by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another 10 To 20 Pitches past 98 In April Will Have No Measureable Effect Down The Road
To claim it will is just flat ass wrong.
by giantsrainman on Apr 20, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dusty!
It is you!
Hi, I am Johnny Disaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Apr 20, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
fixed
It is You!
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Apr 20, 2009 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait
So we all bitch and then worry that Timmy’s first two starts might have been affected by his heavy workload last year, and now the second he pitches well we want him out there for 120 pitch games?
Why does Sabean always look constipated?
by TexasRanger on Apr 19, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
120 ain't sh..........
Your “handle” is appropriate for this conversation. With Nolan Ryan in charge of the Texas Rangers he is trying to get his organization back to pitching more often, long tossing from greater distances etc. He believes that the pichers were stronger and more durable back in his days.
It does all begin in the minors. Setting up workouts and training regimes. Building endurance and stamina. The PC of 120 was a lite workload.
by wilriv21 on Apr 19, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He should go at least 10 innings
I just read a post on another site that said Juan Marichal would have taken a bat to the managers head ala the Johnny Roseboro incident, had he pulled him in a game like that.
by bradleybear on Apr 18, 2009 10:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Drysdale would have ripped Alston a new one. Gibson would have had a stern talk with Schoendist.
It all starts in the minor leagues. Got to build up arm strength and innings down there. By AA and AAA pitchers should be up to 150 IP
by wilriv21 on Apr 18, 2009 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Giants lineup will find a way to whiff to even Bochy’s head.
by SeeingStars on Apr 19, 2009 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that’s pretty funny
"You ask for game winning hits, I give you Eugenio Velez"
by The Gene Hackman on Apr 19, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If
I have little doubt that had it been later in the season and had Tim not been sick two days before his start, he not only would have come out for the ninth inning, but quite possibly the 10th as well, if necessary.
By the way, while I haven’t looked it up and thus am not certain, I think the 16 pitches Tim threw in the eighth inning were the most he threw in any of the eight.
by sharksrog on Apr 19, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is the point I’ve been trying to make on two different threads, but wilriv and GRM don’t seem to get that going over 100 pitches is something you work up to, not do because you’re throwing well for the first time in a young season.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 19, 2009 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So “100” PC is magical, static and an end all for everyone.
His next start is Saturday so he has TWO extra days of rest.
Would you have sent him out there if his PC was 90?
by wilriv21 on Apr 19, 2009 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What comes after 99?
but wilriv and GRM don’t seem to get that going over 100 pitches is something you work up to,
Lincecum’s last start on April 12th his PC was 99.
by wilriv21 on Apr 19, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sending him back out there, he’s not likely to hit 100, but more in the 110-115 range.
Yesterday has done a lot to convince me that a lot of anti-PC people are nuts. The kid was this close to being scratched from this start. Is there any situation where y’all don’t send him back out there?
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on Apr 20, 2009 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not All Pitch Counts Are Alike
The kid was already healthy by Thursday as reported by Dodgers announcer Vin Scully on the final game of that series. The kid was pitching with an extra day of rest.The kid was going to get TWO extra days of rest prior to his next start. The kid had thrown 99 pitches in his previous start.
Let’s take the pacifier out of these pitchers mouths. Let’s take the diapers off these pitchers.
by wilriv21 on Apr 20, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know but are THEY EVER not a like in a downward direction? Is there any time that you pull a pitcher sooner rather than later? Cuz it doesn’t seem like it.
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on Apr 20, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not alike?
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
by oldjacket on Apr 20, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If
If Tim’s pitch count had been only 90 at the end of eight innings, I think it highly likely he would have gone out to pitch the ninth. He would have had a good chance of completing the game around 105 pitches. With 99 pitches entering the ninth, he would likely have wound up around 115.
This early in the season with all the other factors I and others have mentioned here before, I think that 10-pitch difference was an important one.
by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's agree
Let’s just agree to disagree then. I’m certainly not sure of any of this. (Nor is anyone else IMO, since the research in this area is far from complete or even convincing.) But I do believe strongly that it is better to err on the side of safety.
How much does it matter if Tim pitches an extra 10 or 20 innings this season? How much would it matter if doing so curtailed his career timewise and contribution-wise?
If you want to continue to recommend being penny wise and perhaps pound foolish, go for it.
by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2009 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Taking Another Shot Is Hardly Agreeing To Disagree
That said, we have both had our say and it is clear neither of us is changing the others mind.
I do however have some final comments or perhaps questions.
Just where is this mysitical pitch count boundary you seem so afraid of where risk becomes identifiable? If it is prudent to error on the side of cation at 100 pitches why wouldn’t it be even more prudent to error on the side of cation at 90 pitches? Isn’t it possible that allowing pitchers to throw more pitches and to throw more often between starts too would build up their arm strength and actually reduce the risk of injury? To date I have seen no evidence that your “error on the side of cation” approach actually reduces injury risk. Until I do I will continue to believe that the best protection from injury for pitching like all other physical activity to to continuiously build up one’s endurance by well pitching.
by giantsrainman on Apr 20, 2009 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Completely Agree
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Apr 20, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m almost certain that I didn’t post this here. Seeing as I posted it in the Gameday thread after the NH was broken up.
by MonkeyChow on Apr 20, 2009 4:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right now Jon Miller is somewhere wearing a flamboyant tie and thinking about me.
by Norm Median on Apr 20, 2009 1:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
oh no you dint
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Apr 20, 2009 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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