Lincecum's Velocity Down
Maybe it'll take him a little while to knock of the rust, and there's no reason to start panicking immediately, but it's something to keep an eye on.
almost 3 years ago
MonkeyChow
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Doesn’t velocity usually reach its peak about a month or two into the season? I feel like I read that somewhere.
I remain unworried – his strikeout rate is fine, his command is a bit off and his BABIP must be ridiculous right now. Things will right themselves. It’s two games.
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Yea but I looked into this, and in his first couple starts last year he was around 96-97 average and 94-95 average.
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Well, Tim was complaining that his rhythm was off in one of his last starts during spring training. If his rhythm is indeed off (which even Kruk and Kuip were talking about during his first start of the season), then it could explain his struggles thus far. It’s definitely too early to start worrying though.
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by EliminateMe on Apr 15, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Why the stigma on worrying?
I’m a little worried, sure. Although, it’s pretty silly for FanGraphs to be busting out phrases like “career average” for a guy who’s starting his 2nd full season in the pros.
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Where's our resident computer to do some Pitch f/x analysis?
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From the comments section of the article
I just random sampled his release point from last year, and sure enough, it was higher and more centered than his release point from his previous start. Looks like a pretty substantial shift actually.
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by marcello on Apr 15, 2009 10:22 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
FanGraphs’ pitch f/x thingy wasn’t working during Lincecum’s first start, which is why right now it says that 48% of the pitches he threw his year were “XX”, unidentified. The 92.8 MPH is based only on his second game. Gameday’s pitch f/x has Lincecum at 92.7 MPH in the second game – pretty much the same as FanGraphs – and even slower in his first start – 92.4 MPH, so overall his average fastball has been around 92.6 MPH this year. I’ll give him at least three more starts before I start worrying about velocity, though.
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I thought Fangraphs pitch data was from BIS and not Pitchfx? Did they change their format or something for their pitcher data?
Umm...
“Pitch f/x” is what I call all pitcher data thingies. Fangraphs use “Fangraph pitch f/x”, MLB Gameday use “Gameday pitch f/x”, etc. BTW, I don’t even know what the “f/x” stands for.
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Am I the only one who’s seeing an empty comment?
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
What did you write?
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry. Because he was awesome once, and, goddammit, he shall be awesome once again!
I hope.
He posted an image. Here’s the link: http://www.impawards.com/1986/posters/f_x.jpg
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Well, I think most people consider Pitchfx to be the data that MLBAM provides. Fangraphs doesn’t have PFX data. It’s coming from BIS and a totally different system. IE: I think BIS data for pitch-types are recorded by humans and PFX is a computer camera system.
There was some discussion about it here. Apparently BIS have “video scouts” calling pitches. But what does that mean about velocity? They can’t use their own guns from home, but I know that they don’t use the television ones either (they have Cain’s average fastball at 91 MPH, TV was showing him throwing 93-96).
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I hope.
If a pitcher is struggling with control, wouldn’t you expect his velocity to dip just a bit as he tries to concentrate on throwing strikes?
Problem is
You can say that anytime. Pitcher isn’t throwing strikes and has low velocity – it’s OK, he’s just trying to concentrate on throwing strikes. Pitcher is throwing strikes and has low velocity – it’s OK, he’s just trying to concentrate on throwing strikes (and it’s working!).
We shouldn’t panic over two games, bu I’d keep an eye on his velocity for the next few starts.
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I hope.
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Apr 15, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions
could he still be a bit weak from when he got sick during spring training? He was throwing lights-out until he got sick, and after that he’s been complaining a lot about being out of rhythm, and the results took a pretty sharp turn down since he came back
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by theghostofjasonellison on Apr 15, 2009 1:01 PM PDT reply actions
Definitely panic.
It’s not much of an exaggeration to say that Lincecum is, so far, the sum total of the Giants’ rebuilding effort in the majors.
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as noted elsewhere
on opening day my compatriots wondered if something was wrong with the gun as it kept ringing up Lincecum at 93 or so…
Again, this makes me nervous that he has an undisclosed injury or is trying to “play through” something.
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