Community Projection: Fred Lewis
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 9, 2009 4:34 PM PDT
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PrintI was never big on Fred Lewis as a prospect. Here, for example, I ranked him behind Eddy Martinez-Esteve and Craig Whitaker. Here I expressed amazement at his inclusion on Baseball America's top-100 list. I didn't dislike him as a prospect, but I just thought that he was always a little too old for his league, and his performances weren't special enough to ignore that.
Now he's a part of Rebuilding Project, Phase One: Collect league-average hitters. We're all looking forward to Phase Four: Buster and Madison Take Foodstuffs and Wimmen as War Trophies, but Phase One will have to do for now. And I'm happy to have Lewis as a part of Phase One. His defense -- Benardian as his routes may be at times -- is good, and his on-base skillz were some of the best on the team last year.
I'm worried, though, that the Giants are setting the fans up for Lewis-induced disappointment. He'll hit in the middle of the order this year, even though his career high in homers at any level is still lower than Omar Vizquel's career high in the majors. So there's a strong chance that Lewis won't crack ten homers, but the chatter from the organization is that Lewis will change his approach when he's in the middle of the order. He'll be more aggressive, and his athleticism will lead to more home runs. So the story goes, at least.
I call shenanigans. Lewis is strong, for sure. Some of his home runs last year were absolute bombs. But he isn't a power hitter, and he likely never will be. It makes much more sense to appreciate him for the player he already is, which is a decent-OBP and doubles power corner outfielder with speed and good defense. Another two seasons like the last, and Lewis just might be the best position player farm product since Matt Williams. I could blame the organization for that, but you know who doesn't get blamed enough? Todd Linden. Never forget.
Sets of projections from around the interweb:
Bill James: .277/.353/.416, with 10 HR
ZiPS: .267/.342/.416, with 10 HR
PECOTA: .279/.354/.437, with 10 HR
So the projections have Lewis anywhere from nine home runs to ten home runs. Pfft. If he hits nine-and-a-half, all of those slide rule gropers are going to feel pretty stupid. For what it's worth, I'm going to err closer to PECOTA:
Fred Lewis
AB: 540
BA: .278
OBP: .356
SLG: .440
HR: 14
Optimistic, but not insane. That should be the motto for this year's team, actually....
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Pro-Lewis
AB: 535
BA: .289
OBP: .362
SLG: .478
HR: 22
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 9, 2009 12:23 PM PDT reply actions
FYI: I came up with my projection before I looked up PECOTA, in case you were thinking that I just adjusted a couple hundredths of a point and slapped my name on it.
Don't worry
nobody’s ever thought you’re anything other than a studious, hard-working, nose-to-the-grindstone blogger…
Giants Brass fuck with his approach, hilarity does not ensue
AB: 500
BA: .260
OBP: .335
SLG: .450
HR: 15
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
AB: 533
BA: .287
OBP: .364
SLG: .461
HR: 16
RBIs: 82
He breaks Omar’s career HR record of 14, which he got with a SLG of only .418 (Feliz-Esque)
Keeping on SWOOPing in the free world! Also, by the reflexive property of the rubber/glue playground comeback, I enjoy wearing hats on my ass.
by SneakToBetterSeats on Mar 9, 2009 12:41 PM PDT reply actions
AB: 520
BA: .277
OBP: .359
SLG: .460
HR: 11
RBIs: 77
Triples: 21
SBs: 27
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 9, 2009 12:51 PM PDT reply actions
AB: 500
BA: .285
OBP: .345
SLG: .450
HR: 16
by microwave donut on Mar 9, 2009 12:55 PM PDT reply actions
A like round numbers, and I like Fred Lewis
AB: 500
Avg. : 275
OBP: 350
SLG: 450
HR: 20
I really see Lewis as a guy whose approach has been centered around speed and OBP and as a result, a lot of his swings have been Gwynn-esque. If he turns on inside pitches, he has the raw athleticsm to be more of a power//RBI guy. I keep calling him a “poor man’s Eric Davis”, but I think the comparison applies. The “bombs” Grant referred to give me a lot of confidence that he has the strength to hit more deep balls without giving up too much of his current approach.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I keep calling him a "poor man’s Eric Davis"
So he’s what…Michael Tucker?
Kevin Bass if we’re lucky?
Leading the Pro-Aaron Rowand contingent on the McC!
You can ridicule me in 2009 if you like...
by ThrillisGone22 on Mar 9, 2009 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions
AB: 450
AVG: .260
OBP: .330.
SLG: .425.
HR: 12.
Assuming his BABIP regresses to a more reasonable (but still high) .330, Fred’s gonna have to make really big improvements in the K department to keep an AVG over .260. Sadly, I don’t see that happening, since his MLB K rate is perfectly in line with his minor league one. He’s a league average hitter. His defense and speed make up for the fact that he plays RF, so overall he’s a league average player. But he’s our league average player.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Fact or Fiction?
It’s not actually a fact that Lewis plays right field. He’s our left fielder.
Can’t spell Jerk without JR!
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
Can’t spell cookyman without ‘why, man’ ?
by Johnny Disaster on Mar 9, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Nice!
Good one, Johnny Disaster.
I’ve got a trivia question for you. I believe it was in the spring of 1974 (might have been 1973) that I saw your namesake make a great diving catch in the hole during a Fresno Giants (then Class A) intrasquad game in Casa Grande. I was up in the famous tower, where one could watch each of the four fields from behind the plate.
The guy playing third base beside him went on to become the guy with the second-most extra innings in history. (The leader is Willie Mays, who is also the only player in history to homer in each inning, one through 16, the last of which came off Warren Spahn to allow Juan Marichal to beat the Braves 1-0 in 16 frames.) Who was the guy playing third base beside Johnnie Lee LeMaster?
By the way, in that 16-inning game, Al Dark wanted to pull Marichal. But Juan told him, “As long as that old man (the 42-or-so-year-old Spahn) is out there, I’m not going out of the game.”
So who was playing the hot corner next to Johnny Lee? (Hint, the third baseman was drafted as a pitcher in the same draft in which LeMaster was the Giants’ first-round pick.)
Good guess
Dave Kingman was indeed a good guess, but he preceded Johnie Lee by a few years. Dave would be the answer to which player was taking infield practice at third base (or was it first?) at Candlestick in September along with Chris Speier, Chris Arnold and Ed Goodson.
The 49ers played an exhibition game against the Raiders in the Coliseum that night.
Anyway, take another shot at the third baseman who played alongside Johnie Lee for Fresno in the intrasquad game. I’ll give you two more clues:
This one may not help much, but the year after he played for Fresno, the third baseman had the dual honor of leading the Texas League in both fielding percentage and errors at the hot corner and then switched to another position the following season. I have never heard of any other player leading his league in both fielding percentage AND errors, although surprisingly it is possible in two different manners.
Finally, this player came back to play AGAINST the Giants in a playoff series.
A final clue, which likely won’t help much at all: This player homered for the Giants in the 10th inning to beat Houston the day my son Aaron was born and both Hank Aaron and Giants manager Frank Robinson were inducted into the Hall of Fame.
I’m pretty stumped for other clues during the player’s career, although I could come up with a few AFTER his career was over. Hopefully you or someone else can come up with the answer.
Jack The Ripper
The story about leading Texas League 3B’s in both errors and filding percentage was the only clue I needed.
by giantsrainman on Mar 10, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Two different manners?
I can see if you had way more total chances than anyone else, you could lead in both fielding percentage and errors. What’s the other way?
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Mar 11, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
You Are The Only On To Reach The Number Of Chances Required To Qualify For The Fielding % Title
by giantsrainman on Mar 11, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Heh, of course. Is that how Clark managed it?
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Mar 11, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
By the way
By the way, Rainman, I’ve never met anyone who knew that little bit of trivia about Jack Clark. I’m really impressed that someone could be as geeky as I. :)
In My Case It Might Be Age As Much As Geekiness
I was three when the Giants moved to SF in 1958. I have loved them ever sense. So that love combined with my geeky “rainman” brain that grabs onto and won’t let go of funky numbers made this a natural for me to find out about and remember.
by giantsrainman on Mar 12, 2009 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions
can't spell zenbitz
I mean it. I never come out of the game.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Reasonable
I know your prediction will be unpopular, and I can see why people would argue on behalf of a better season from Fred, but I think your prediction is a very reasonable one.
One thing, though. If Fred hits only .260 (which as you mention, is entirely possible if he doesn’t cut down on his strikeouts), he probably won’t slug .425. That’s over 1.6 bases per hit, which is a little tough with only 12 homers. Fred IS trying to break Willie Mays’ SF record of 12 triples in a season and would even like to take a run at Willie’s 20 in 1957 in New York.
Fred averaged 1.56 base per hit last year, while hitting 9 HR’s in 468 AB’s. I don’t think the regression in his BABIP should affect his isolated SLG, because I think his luck was mainly on ground ball singles, so in order to post 1.6 bases per hit, he’ll just need to add 5 TB (like turning two doubles into HR’s, and one singles into a double). That’s doable in my opinion.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Good argument
You make a good argument, and it certainly isn’t impossible Fred will perform as you expect. I just don’t think it is likely.
Fred has averaged 1.52 bases per hit as a major leaguer and averaged 1.49 in the minors. Fred did average a very impressive 2.06 bases per hit in 633 at bats in Fresno though.
One factor in Fred’s 2008 season is that he batted an unsustainable .823 on line drives, picking up 27 of his 74 extra bases on 51 hits. He also batted an unreasonably high .277 on fly balls, accumulating 44 extra bases on just 26 hits. I believe some of those balls will be caught in 2009.
With Fred’s speed, his .292 batting average on ground balls is believable, but only three of his total bases stemmed from his 54 hits. If Fred’s BABIP comes down mostly on balls hit in the air, as it appears it might, I believe he will lose some of those extra bases in the process.
Maybe Fred will continue to hit balls in the air “where they ain’t,” but I doubt he’ll do so to the same extent.
I guess it will be intriguing to watch this season and see how things develop.
One factor in Fred’s 2008 season is that he batted an unsustainable .823 on line drives
Am I reading his B-R splits page wrong? It looks like he hit: .763/.750/1.220 on LD’s, which doesn’t seem outlandish. Since, I’ve always heard that LD’s go for hits like 75% of the time.
BABIP on LD:
Lewis: .746
MLB: .718.
BABIP on FB:
Lewis: .258
MLB: .142
BABIP on GB:
Lewis:.296
MLB: .237
Some speedy players manage to maintain a GB BABIP around .300 and the LD one is pretty close to the league average. It’s his FB BABIP that’s completely unsustainable. While there are a few batter who manage to maintain a BABIP over .330 (Jeter, Ichiro, Manny and and Hanley Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, Matt Holliday) they all do it on ground balls and/or line drives. I couldn’t find one player who’s managed to keep a fly ball BABIP anywhere nearly as high as Fred’s over a substantial period of time.
If Fred’s FB BABIP regresses to .160 (still above average), and his LD and GB BABIP stay the same, he’ll be a .262 hitter.
Sharksrog – you’re rightt. Lewis was mainly lucky with his fly balls, and since fly ball hits usually go for extra bases, his isolated SLG should also lose some points. Hopefully he’ll make up for some of this with more HR’s and fewer K’s.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Oh my god…There are BABIPs on LD/FB/GB? That leaves me feeling all wow these STATS are amazing as well as, COME ON PEOPLE!
Is there a SS on these? And also, is there a standard deviation between these that is larger than we’d expect? That is, because the SS are so small there is a lot more variation in the results than say for a complete season’s BA?
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Sample Size
I’m glad we can talk about size other than in the usual context.
As for the sample sizes, they aren’t as large as a player’s overall season numbers, obviously, but ground balls make up around 20% of balls hit by a major league batter, and the other 80% are likely fairly evenly divided between fly balls and ground balls, with grounders likely having the edge.
So the sample sizes aren’t large, but neither are they tiny. No question, though, that these figures will vary from the norm more than will batting averages.
Nice work!
I didn’t realize Baseball-Reference had these splits, so you taught me something. I got my figures from Bill James Online.
As for the differences, my numbers include homers, which I believe accounts for the difference in your BABIP figures, which don’t include home runs. As for ground balls, the difference is small and likely is a slight statistical error on one or the other of the sources — or even both.
Yeah, I intentionally didn’t include HR, since they’re not affected by luck.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Darn, you're good!
You are absolutely correct, Cookyman — unless of course the wind is blowing in or out. :)
I’m making light of your comment (to which I might add the dimensions of the particular park and how well the ball is carrying), but you are absolutely correct that BABIP doesn’t include home runs unless they are inside the park.
AB: 500
Avg. : .388
OBP: .385
SLG: .700
HR: 55
Yes, Lewis will hit .388, but with a lower OBP than batting average. And no, I don’t think 55 home runs is unrealistic.
It’s actually Kool-Aid, and you’ll have to ask Brian Sabean to mix up another batch. I drank it all.
by Missing Barry on Mar 9, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
listen up ya'lls
AB: 539
AVG: .291
OBP: .369
SLG: .454
HR: 21
3B: 16
SB: 25
Defense: goodish
"I didn't know (after seeing a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch) whether to shit or go blind." - Former Giants Outfielder Harvey Kuenn on Willie Mays
AB 500
AVG .300
OBP .362
SLG .470
HR 24
He’ll be our cleanup hitter before the year is out.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
due to his good hitting or bengie getting traded?
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Mar 9, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions
phase one: dorris lewis gets her his oats dingerz
AB: 523
AVG: .281
OBP: .355
SLG: .440
HR: 13
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Mar 9, 2009 1:37 PM PDT reply actions
It’s meh compared to those who were hoping for Manny in LF
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Mar 9, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions
In sticking with my optimistic forecasts so far...
AB 550
AVG .287
OBP .367
SLG .470
HR: 20
Someone get Damon Minor's agent on the phone stat!
Adopted Father of Luis Perdomo
by fanofvanlandingham on Mar 9, 2009 2:31 PM PDT reply actions
The Rainman Projections For Fred Lewis
PA/AB 550/490
BB/HBP 53/2
SH/SF 1/4
SB/CS 25/5
1B/2B/3B/HR 85/30/10/10
AVG/OBP/SLG .276/.345/.439
wOBA/wRC/UZR .343/71.6/1
.800 OPS!
That’s my goal for Freddie, an .800 OPS.
.350 OBA plus .450 SLG and we got ourselves an .800 guy.
He was .782 in ’07, and .791 in ’08. That .009 increase was NOT random or flukey or anything else but pure Fredliness. With another .009 increase he will reach that vaunted .800 OPS plateau.
Go Oh-Oh-Niners!
Todos somos Gigantes
My prediction above has that same 350/450. I think he’s a 800 OPS type of guy. It wouldn’t surprise me if he SLGs higher than that.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Just so
Just so he doesn’t reach an .800 OOPS.
Remember when the Warriors used GSWHoops, which easily could have been interpreted as GS Whoops?
Can anyone explain...
Lewis’s ridiculous home/road splits?
236 Home ABs: .331/.388/.525
232 Road ABs: .233/.314/.353
Keeping on SWOOPing in the free world! Also, by the reflexive property of the rubber/glue playground comeback, I enjoy wearing hats on my ass.
by SneakToBetterSeats on Mar 9, 2009 3:30 PM PDT reply actions
Yeah weird, lefties are supposed to be hurt by AT&T.
I’d probably chaulk it up to a combination of small sample size and him being a young guy still getting used to the various parks and life in the bigs.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Lefties are hurt by AT&T in the fact that it takes home runs away. Lewis doesn’t hit that many home runs so he isn’t affected by it that much. Between the big gap in right center and the fact that Lewis uses the whole field when he hits, AT&T should actually help him out. Keep in mind overall it played as league average last year – the gaps cancel out the negative home run effect. Also, even when park effects are factored in players on average hit better at home than on the road.
by Missing Barry on Mar 9, 2009 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Keep in mind overall it played as league average last year – the gaps cancel out the negative home run effect.
Park effects aren’t adjusted for batter handedness. AT&T helps RHH a bit, and hurts LHH quite a lot, but because there are more RHH, it’s a neutralish park overall. But I agree with everything else you said.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
I know there is somewhere to find this, but never have been able to. HR/3B/2B park factors? But I’m guessing that there aren’t splits on park factors..
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
First Inning has some.
Also, if you go to StatCorner, you can find park factors on individual team pages, such as the 2008 Giants.
Word of caution though: I think both sites only have 1-year park factors for this (not multi-year) so they probably aren’t as accurate as you’d like.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Bill James
Bill James’ annual handbook also has these figures — both for the most recent season and for the past three years. Recently AT&T has played below average for homers but above average for hits.
We can understand the homer thing — which is far more prevalent for lefty hitters than right-handers, naturally — and the hits thing may be because of a good hitters’ background and/or the way the right fielder plays off the line, which probably cuts down on doubles and especially triples, but likely results in more hits.
Cool
I might start buying them again. Or maybe just get a peek at some pages in the bookstore.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
sure I can
“sample size”
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
FLew09
Glad to see I’m not the only member of the .300 club for BA.
AB: 540
BA: .308
OBP: .359
SLG: .481
HR: 20
Moster season for Fred with him improving every month.
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
I'm a fan
AB: 530
BA: .287
OBP: .356
SLG: .454
HR: 13
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
First career post!
G – 140
AB – 532
BA – .284
OBP – .363
SLG – .450
HR – 14
SB – 15
Good stuff
And welcome
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
I’m worried about the Giants trying to change his approach. Everything I read is about how Lewis is going to be aggressive and hit the ball hard and not wait around.
Which is all fine, except that I’d hate to see him lose the high OBP that’s made him successful so far.
If it were me, I’d bat Lewis third and tell him not to change a thing. He’s already a fine hitter, and he doesn’t need a radically different approach.
I think people are over reacting to the “changed approach.” It is not like he is being ordered at gun point to bat right handed. The brass are making suggestions, FLew is following them and, so far, likes the new approach. If it doesn’t work he can go back to being the patient, lead off type. They tried to “correct” Mad Bums’ windup, he didn’t like it, went back to ‘ol’ funk’ and it stuck. I also think the suggestion makes sense; a lot of hitters ‘mature’ into their power. FLew has proved he can hit in MLB, now he can learn/develop his power tools.
AB: 510
BA: 286
OBP: 338
SLG: 461
3B: 11
HR: 17
and, no, I have no idea where the phantom post came from
Fred Lewis - Also on my list of Giants Mancrushes!
And the Giants winning 86 games…Optimistic, but not impossible. I like the new slogan!
Homer vs. RBI
I’m not too worried about how many home runs Lewis hits this year, but I’m more worried about how many RsBI he has. I would rather Lewis has 80+ RsBI than 20+ homers. Obviously a home run is a RBI, but I think it’s unrealistic to think he’ll hit more than 15 dingers. If he can hit for a decent percentage (ie. .280ish) and smack singles, doubles and triples all over the park then I’ll be happy. I’m asking for 80+ RsBI from Freddy this year not 20 homers. Add in his plus defense and speed on the bases and I think Lewis is a pretty good left fielder.
RsBI
rely a lot more on the first 2 guys getting on base ahead of him, so If you want RsBI from Fred, then what you should really be asking for is OBP from the 1/2 hitters.
AB: 480
BA: .285
OBP: .348
SLG: .437
HR: 13
SB: 16
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 9, 2009 9:53 PM PDT reply actions
Grant, I Am Curious Why You Don't Include Marcel Or Oliver?
Is there a reason for this or did you just figure that four is enough.
Oh GRM, you expect so much out of Grant….. I stopped doing that back in April
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Four is plenty, but I’m not really familiar with either of those. Isn’t Marcel the one that’s just an average of past stats? That’s useful for proving how silly all of these projections are, but it isn’t fun. And I don’t know a thing about Oliver.
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 9, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Marcel is a weighted average of the past 3 seasons (I think seasons x, x-1, and x-2 are weighted 5/4/3 respectively) and regressed toward the league average. Pretty simple and good for players who have about 2 1/2 to 3 years of MLB experience. An age adjustment is also included.
However, it doesn’t “know” a lot, e.g. park factors, minor league data. In fact, it knows so little about non-MLB data that all players who comes over from Japan project at league average.
Olivers are a little more complex. I think it uses 5 years of data, with a weighted average, regressed toward the mean, and includes age factors, park factors, and minor league equivalencies in the projections.
Fred’s projection with the Olivers: .263/.337/.406
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Please sir...
…may I have some dingers?
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Mar 10, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
You’ll get nothing and like it! Now go steal me some bases.
by Johnny Disaster on Mar 10, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Please sir...
…may I have some more pants?
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Giants don't Give a Hoot about On base percentage
Who’d a thunk that they want this guy to take less pitches, and Hack away ala Barry Bond’s Father, and Turn Lewis into a Left Handed Bobby Bonds. Maybe it will work, perhaps he will be the next George Foster and bang out a ton of dingers. Perhaps he will steal 40 bases this year. My worry is that the giants will not have a high OBP guy whom the hackers, ie; Bengie/Sandoval/Rowand who hack at everything and don’t take walks. I sure hope he turns out to be better than Marvin Benard.
Fred
Fred Lewis isn’t going to turn into the next George Foster, even though George too was a late developer — just not as late as Fred.
Fred will likely be a bit better than Marvin Benard career-wise, although he might have a hard time beating Marvin’s best season or two.
As for Marvin, people really got on him for his poor defense in center field, but he actually was a decent corner outfielder who was pressed into duty in center because Ellis Burks’ knees couldn’t take all the running the middle outfield position demanded.
I think Marvin is one of the most improperly despised of all Giants players.
I think Marvin is one of the most improperly despised of all Giants players
Is this better?
“Mr. Benard, my good man. Thank you ever so much for your effort, but I despise you nonetheless. Good day sir.”
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
More polite
It’s more polite, but not necessarily a better analysis.
I despise your impropriety.
But not Marvin – got a soft spot for the little guy…
by Johnny Disaster on Mar 10, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
I SAID GOOD DAY
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Benard hit a GW HR the first game I attended at PacBell. I can never begrudge the man.
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
Whom the hackers would drive in if someone could get on base.
Sorry for the deletion in the above post. I must have had to much synthahol.
Fred is above average
Meaning that he’s good:
PA: 555
BA: .275
OBP: .360
SLG: .435 (Just missing an .800 OPS but the .360/.435 is better than .350/.450)
HR: 15
SB: 18, with only 1 CS
Defense: slightly below-average in center (like -1 run over the course of the season I guess) and +4 in left field
Comments with some combination of “FLEW”, “FLoooo”, “FredLew!” or "Fast Fred!!!!: 1,092
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
“some combination” should instead be “something like”
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
The Giants
The Giants want Fred to be more aggressive, which given that despite missing time to injury he had something like the second-most called third strikes in MLB is probably a good idea. But with that approach, I think it would be difficult for Fred to reach a .360 OBP with a .275 BA.
I also suspect that if Fred played center field, he might well be worse than a -1. Don’t forget that three years ago the Giants moved Fred OUT of center because he was playing so poorly there.
I don’t know why I believe this, but I don’t feel like the “more aggressive” approach is going to last the whole year. Just a feeling
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
And not a bad one
Your feeling may well be correct. But if it is, then I think Fred might have a hard time slugging .435 with a .275 BA.
Fred’s season will be a very intriguing one. If he can keep his average up near his career mark with as many strikeouts, it will be more and more difficult to attribute his high BABIP to luck. And if he can cut down on his strikeouts, his improvement should be more sustainable.
I guess I’m kind of in that “I’ll believe it when I see it” camp. Then again, Fred has been more successful more quickly than I expected when I first saw him play at Fresno in April of 2007. He looked very, very raw at that time — yet beginning little over a month later he was promoted and batted .287 with a .782 OPS in 157 at bats. He then continued similar hitting into a more regular role last season.
The .160 ISO I projected is similar to the .158 ISO he put up last season. However, I don’t think he’ll repeat that, so I modified my projection by a few points. Also, I think my OBP was a little overzealous too.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Could be worse
Being overzealous isn’t the worst thing in the world. :)
I don’t get it…Is there any reason why even the statsy people here are expecting the guy with the .367 BABIP to either stay the same or improve? Baetown415, xanthan, jponry – explain yourself!
At least I have marcello and sharksrog with me.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Because we’re pulling these projections from our asses? I dunno. Most projections I’ve seen regress his BABIP back to the .330 range which is pretty close to what his xBABIP was last year — when using the newer model linked by THT a few months (I think) ago.
A quick Google search turned up the article I was thinking about:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/
Under this new model Fred’s xBABIP in ’08 was .336 instead of the old LD version of xBABIP that had him at something like .293.
I’ve been saying that Lewis is a .330 BABIP guy for quite a while. It’s why I see him hitting .260, not .235. In Fred’s case, a BABIP drop of 35 points would cost him about more than .25 points of AVG. He’d have to cut his K’s by 25% in order to make up for it.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
In Fred’s case, a BABIP drop of 35 points would cost him about more than .25 points of AVG
Hmm…I’m not sure if I meant “about” or “a bit more”.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
When I want to regress a batting line I do this:
(regressed BABIP) X ( AB – K – HR) = regressed number of hits on balls in play.
(RNOHOBIP + HR) / total AB’s = regressed AVG.
Then:
(RNOHOBIP + HR + BB + HBP) / PA = regressed OBP.
Slugging percentage is the hard part, because you have to estimate how much did the player’s isolated power benefit from his BABIP. For that you’d have to check what the player hit on LD’s, FB’s, and GB’s, and then do some stat magic that I don’t really understand. Generally, though, if the player was lucky on GB’s, his isolated power should stay the same, but if he was lucky on FB’s and LD’s, it should take a hit.
Is this what you meant?
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Yeah, thanks. Another question, where do you find batting average by batted ball type? Which site carries that info?
Nice job, Cookyman
In your previous post which you referred us to, you did a nice job of showing why a high BABIP for Fred is logical. I would like to add a couple of points, though.
First, almost all players see their BABIP’s go down in the major leagues due in part to the better fielding and better scouting (positioning). Notice how the general pattern for Fred is that his BABIP is lower as he advances through the minor leagues, even though one would presume his hitting has improved during that time?
Second, Randy Winn had a higher BABIP in the minors than did Fred, and yet Randy’s BABIP has dropped by something akin to 40 points as a major leaguer. Fred isn’t Randy, of course, but they are both hitters with speed and modest power.
I’m not sure I can think of an example of player with a high BABIP in the minors who actually INCREASED it in the majors as Fred has. I will be very surprised if Fred’s BABIP doesn’t go down at some point. Unless he cuts down on his strikeouts, I think it is going to be difficult for Fred to hit for a high enough average to carry his OBP and SLG to expected levels for a corner outfielder.
An example of a hitter who strikes out a lot but had a very high BABIP in his early years, only to see it decline considerably, is Ryan Howard. Ryan’s BABIP’s year by year have been .375, .358, .363, .336 and … .289. Some of the decline has no doubt been due to the shift employed against Ryan (There is that better scouting that I mentioned.), but clearly in 2008 he didn’t have the same degree of luck he enjoyed in previous seasons.
Not only that, but his BABIP was quite a bit LOWER than .289 entering the final quarter or so of the season, allowing me to predict on another board that it would increase significantly before the end of the year — which it did.
BABIP isn’t the be-all, end-all of hitting, but I believe it is foolish to ignore it when making projections.
Of course, it is quite possible Ryan Howard wasn’t hitting the ball as hard in 2008, but his strikeout percentage was below his career average and his home run rate wasn’t far off his career rate. Since those non-BABIP factors weren’t too unusual, one would assume that the Balls in Play — which are in between hitting a home run and striking out — likely wouldn’t be too far off, either.
And a drop from a .336 BABIP to a .289 BABIP is significant — especially for a hitter who had never been below .358 prior to those two seasons.
My argument was never that Lewis can maintain a .367 BABIP, only that he could maintain a high one. Obviously his MLB BABIP should be lower than his MiLB one, which is why I only projected him with a .330 BABIP, even though his minor league BABIP is almost 30 points higher.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Stop being so logical
Your idea that Fred’s BABIP might gravitate to around .330 is too reasonable. Stop being so logical. :)
I’m like a borderline Stats guy, but BABIP regression for hitters hasn’t made a huge believer out of me yet.
I'm spent, just can't rosterbate anymore.
Studies
I do believe studies have been done, and they indicated a player tended to gravitate to his own BABIP. For simplicity, I use a .300 BABIP for projections until I get a read on the player. But most players with high BABIP’s tend to regress, while often players with a low BABIP tend to improve.
Omar Vizquel is a rare example of a player who improved his minor league BABIP after coming to the majors. As I mentioned, Randy Winn is an example of a player with a very high minor league BABIP who has regressed significantly in the major leagues. Almost all the players I have studied have seen their minor league BABIP’s drop off once they reach the major leagues.
As I mentioned, Omar Vizquel is an exception — but his minor league BABIP was quite low (something around .260 IIRC). I can’t think of any other player I have studied whose minor league BABIP was high and then became even higher upon reaching the major leagues as Fred’s has.
That is no gurarantee that Fred’s BABIP will drop, but I would say it indicates the odds favor such an occurrence.
I’m not a stats person, in part because I’m not good enough at math to be one, but I would say that, no matter how much of a stats person you are, nothing is ever certain and there’s always wiggle room for interpretation. No projection system is always right, and even if the numbers suggest a player is likely to fall off, that doesn’t necessarily they will.
So I don’t see anything especially odd about stats people being more optimistic about a player than the numbers alone suggest they should be.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
I’m not that much of a statsy person.
I am also an unabashed Fred fangirl.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
♥STATS♥
no, I do love stats and all baseball statistical analysis. I, personally, am not any good at it though.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
More familiarity with pitchers? I’m not sure…. I was kind of tired when I put my post up last night and modified it (see below). Yeah, I’ll go with that: more familiarity with pitchers.
BTW, who’re you callin’ statsy? ;-)
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Hmmm.... addendum
I think my OBP and SLG are both a little high… revision: .275/.352/.430
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
AB: 510
Avg: .293
OBP: .358
SLG: .473
HR: 17
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Mar 10, 2009 3:16 AM PDT reply actions
Fred Lewis
AB: 516
BA: .278
OBP: .349
SLG: .440
HR: 16
I only tweaked Grant’s numbers slightly. I think we both see the same player, both historically and currently.
At least Phase One beats the heck out of our recent Phase Zero.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
16 home runs
With 16 homers, your projected 1.58 bases per hit for Fred would seem reasonable. I’m not sure about the 16 homers, though, since Fred hit only 38 in over 2000 at bats in the minors. Then again, he hit 20 in 633 at bats at Fresno. But I think Fresno is an easier place to hit homers than SF is.
Buy! Buy!! Buy!!!
Bullish on Mr. Lewis!!
345 OBP
455 SLG
Good defense, even if it is a bit like watching sausages be made. (HMM Brawts…)
13 hrs & 18 triples.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
Seller
I would sell to you, since I’m rather more bearish. Fred IS a tough player to project, though. Probably not as tough as Pablo Sandoval, but tough nevertheless.
I think you noticed I mentioned nothing about "Holding". I think that will be a very lively discussion come around September in these parts. More so if my guess is correct.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Mar 10, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Fred = Randy + Some Pop
I think Fred Lewis basically has Randy Winn’s career from here on out, plus a few dingerz and minus getting traded for Lou Pinella.
AVG: .288
OBP: .347
SLG: .450
I'm spent, just can't rosterbate anymore.
Pfft…who doesn’t have an interocitor?
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 10, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Difference
One difference between Randy and Fred is that Randy’s minor league BABIP of .368 has dropped to .329 in the majors (a drop of 39 points), while Fred’s has uncharacteristically INCREASED from .359 to .366.
With both players being hitters with modest power but lots of speed, what is it about Fred that makes him THAT different from Randy?
If anything, Randy’s 19.6% line drive rate, 50.0% ground ball rate and 30.4% fly ball rate would be considered a better mix for batting average than Fred’s 17.5% line drive rate, 54.4% ground ball rate and 28.1% fly ball rate.
It might be that Fred is better at beating out ground balls and bunts than Randy — except that isn’t the case, either. Randy has beaten out 6.7% of his infield grounders, which slightly exceeds Fred’s 6.2. And Randy’s 27.0 of bunts beaten out is easily better than Fred’s 16.7%.
The statistical signs point strongly to a decrease in Fred’s BABIP. I will be quite surprised if it doesn’t happen to him. Even though it took a long time to show up extensively with Ryan Howard, I would say that Ryan’s 47 point BABIP decline from 2007 to 2008 was significant. Particularly since the decline from his career BABIP was even greater.
Fred Lewis
Part of teh Solution
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Freddy Freddy Lew Lew
AB: 520
BA: .288
OBP: .366
SLG: .460
HR: 21
If God had intended us not to rosterbate, he would've made our arms shorter.
Padre renuente de Luis Perdomo, porque él es todo el que se deja hasta junio. The 28th best prospect in all the land!
Hawk
I see why you call yourself Hawk! :)
I think it’s because of the dirty joke in his username.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Impossible!
Dirty jokes on MCC? Pshaw! Next you’ll be telling me there are women posting here!
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Mar 11, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
“only milk and dairy products”
“only eagles and birds”
“only pistachios and nuts”
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 13, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
AB: 487
AVG: .265
OBP: .361
SLG: .402
HR: 11
by lincypoo i wuv u on Mar 14, 2009 1:39 AM PDT reply actions
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