Community Projection: Starting Second Baseman

by Grant on Mar 4, 2009 1:45 PM PST Comment 60 comments

There really isn’t a good way to handle this one. I guess that I could make the second base projections last, but where’s the fun in that? About a month ago, the great unwashed masses declared Kevin Frandsen to be the preferred choice, but is he the likely starter? Dave Flemming was on KNBR yesterday, and he seemed to think that Manny Burriss had the inside track because the Giants were going to want defense from second. Andrew Baggarly quickly noted that today’s exhibition lineup was probably the Opening Day lineup "possibly subbing out Kevin Frandsen for Emmanuel Burriss," so at least one beat writer thinks that the competition is still an open one.

The stats! indicate that Kevin Frandsen is in the lead. I mean, he’s hitting .500/.583/.900 in ten spring at-bats, which is current and therefore more reliable than those musty old "career stats." But if Sandoval and Renteria reach a combined six ground balls in the spring, trying to counter that with a boffo defensive right side wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

So this post is a dual community projection. Take Burriss and Frandsen, and project what either would do if they were awarded the full-time gig. The projections for Burriss from other sources:

Bill James: .276/.338/.329
CHONE: .270/.331/.347
PECOTA: .252/.312/.304
ZiPS: .254/.307/.294

Note that I’m just giving the rate projections from the systems, without worrying about playing time projections.

And here’s Frandsen:

Bill James: .280/.322/.402
CHONE: .288/.343/.411
PECOTA: .273/.335/.379
ZiPS: .269/.325/.370

The general consensus is that Frandsen is a poor offensive player who would be a quality starter if he boosted his power numbers, and Burriss is a poor offensive player who projects out to have Zitonian power. Yeesh.

There is anecdotal and small sample size evidence to cherry-pick, of course, if you’re so inclined. Frandsen was miserable for most of 2007, but he actually looked like a major league hitter in September, and before he busted his Achilles tendon, he was supposedly in the best shape of his life. They don’t just say those sorts of things in the spring. It must have been true. And Burriss might be just a year removed from stinking up A-ball, but maybe his extra work with Carney Lansford actually was what preceded his late season OBP surge.

Is it wrong, or just stupid to project something that aligns with the best projection for one player while matching up with the worst projection of the other? Dunno, but here goes:

Kevin Frandsen (if he gets 500 ABs):

AVG: .284
OBP: .342
SLG: 440
HR: 13

***

Emmanuel Burriss (if he gets 500 ABs):

AVG: .260
OBP: .301
SLG: .302
HR: 1
SB: 32

***

I’m not giving up on Burriss – not at all. If he starts in the majors this year, though, he’ll be a victim of his own limited success in the majors last year. He needs at-bats in Fresno, at least. Before last season, the organizational timetable probably had him in AA this year. I’m rooting for Burriss to hit .300/.420/.420 in Fresno, play a mean short, and force the Giants into a tough decision at short next year.

And, yeah, I guess that my projection for Frandsen is on the optimistic side, but I probably place too much weight on his minor league career while adding in a random power spike. I'm not sure why, either.

So that's the second base projection post. I hope you liked it. Because it's certainly over now. Hmm. That’s weird. It feels like…like… I’m forgetting something. Or someone. Someone who has also been named as a possible contender for the second base job. I’m sure it will come to me later.

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Comments

I believe you’re thinking of Yu Darvish, Grant.

New to McCovey Chronicles? Check out the McFAQs! McFAQ I & II
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by Natto on Mar 4, 2009 1:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Travis Denker!

by deuce deuce on Mar 4, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, he’s forgetting Matt Downs.

"Just take the ball and throw it where you want to. Throw strikes. Home plate don't move."-Leroy "Satchel" Paige

My adopted son Matt Downs . Utility Infielder with a Bat !

by nvsfg on Mar 4, 2009 3:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Yu Darvish

The starting pitcher for Japan in game one of the WBC.

by SFGuy on Mar 5, 2009 12:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Travis Denker

AVG: .260
OBP: .365
SLG: .450
HR: 15

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 4, 2009 2:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Don’t let oldjacket see this…

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

by baetown415 on Mar 4, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen

AVG: .277
OBP: .332
SLG: .401
HR: 11
SB: 2

Burriss

AVG: .270
OBP: .321
SLG: .318
HR: 2
SB: 28

I really think Burriss should start off 2009 in Fresno.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Mar 4, 2009 2:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Question, please, JPonry:

Do you think Burriss should start the season in Fresno because you think he will ULTIMATELY be better at 2nd but just needs more edumacation/seasoning which he won’t get in a platoonish situation, OR because you think Frandsen will prove better at the job? Just curious.

Forsan et heac olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.

by Mayor of 311 on Mar 4, 2009 9:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I want him playing SS every day in Fresno because I think he still has a future there.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Mar 4, 2009 9:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Rainman Projections For Kevin Frandsen

PA/AB 500/450
BB/HBP 33/12
SH/SF 5/0
SB/CS 12/4
1B/2B/3B/HR 83/30/2/9
AVG/OBP/SLG .276/.338/.411
wOBA/wRC .331/59.8
UZR +4 (I have not heard the weak defense you have in fact I have heard the opposite.)

I haven’t projected Burriss because I expect him to be playing SS in Fresno. If I were to project Manny I would have him some where around his Bill James (.303 wOBA) and CHONE (.308 wOBA) projections. I think PECOTA and ZIPS are too low (as is Oliver which you didn’t list while Marcel (which you also didn’t list) is too high.

by giantsrainman on Mar 4, 2009 2:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Don't know about projections...

But I reeeeeally hope they give the job to Franny. He’s got nothing left to prove in the minors, Burriss has plenty left to prove in the minors. And even if you do want defense from 2b, true, Burriss’ would probably be better, but it’s not like Frandsen is a clunker of Ray Durham-at-his-worst proportions over there. But basically, my question is this: if you’re going to give rebuilding a go, why, oh why, wouldn’t you give the starting job to the guy who’s advanced steadily through your minor league system and is at that crucial make-or-break stage of his career when you find out if he can hack it in the Bigs. It’s Franny’s time… especially if these minor league numbers continue.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Mar 4, 2009 2:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

and by “minor league numbers” in that last sentence, I meant “spring training numbers.” My bad.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Mar 4, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

this

by microwave donut on Mar 4, 2009 3:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

It’s Franny time!

Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.

by ResDog on Mar 5, 2009 6:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen

AVG: .291
OBP: .332
SLG: .444
HR: 12

Manny

Avg: .271
OBP:.319
SLG: .345
HR: 2

"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean

by Smotheredinhugs on Mar 4, 2009 2:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Start Frandsen!

Frandsen
AVG: .283
OBP: 342
SLG:. 408
HR: 7
2B: 29

Burris
AVG: .252
OBP: .334
SLG: .307
HR: .07
He needs to figures out SS D Fresno: It really does suck here! (my friend has a shirt…)

Keeping on SWOOPing in the free world! Also, by the reflexive property of the rubber/glue playground comeback, I enjoy wearing hats on my ass.

by SneakToBetterSeats on Mar 4, 2009 2:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen:
AVG: .275
OBP:.335
SLG:.420
HR:10

Burris
AVG:.270
OBP:.325
SLG:Can Burris even slug?
HR:Less than Jaun Pierre

multiples of of 10 and 5 FTW!!!!

Playoffs!!??

by PAWarrior on Mar 4, 2009 2:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen:

AVG: .283
OBP: .349
SLG: .388
HR: 7

Burriss:

AVG: .271
OBP: .334
SLG: .309
HR: 0
SB: 26

GROUGTHINK ALERT

by groug on Mar 4, 2009 2:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

My projection:

We will be thinking about pulling Duane Kuiper out of the broadcast booth for his “pop” and “veteran savvy”

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Mar 4, 2009 2:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

both hilariously and sadly, this.

"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"

by The Gene Hackman on Mar 4, 2009 3:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Frandsen or Burriss at 2B is probably a wash in the short-term, but Burriss at SS in Fresno this season is better for the long-term.

Therefore,
Frandsen:
280/ 340/400
HR: 10
GDQ*: 250

*Grittiness Display Quotient (ripped uni + smeared eyeblack + headfirst slides + on-camera cup adjustemnts/manicures received)

My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman

by Goofus on Mar 4, 2009 2:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Agree

Manny at SS in Fresno is the key… and improving the old OBP whilst down there wouldn’t hurt.

by Johnny Disaster on Mar 4, 2009 7:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Franny typo

“poor offensive player”?

Don’t you mean he’s a poor defensive player?

by thethrillisgone on Mar 4, 2009 2:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

That too.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 4, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I think they both apply, sadly…

by bondslegend on Mar 5, 2009 1:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen:

BA: .261
OBP: .328
SLG: .395
HR: 11

Burriss:
BA: .274
OBP: .339
SLG: .330
HR: 2 (both inside-the-park jobs)
SB: 25

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Mar 4, 2009 2:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen:
AVG: .277
obp: .331
SLG: .409
HR: 9

Burriss:
AVG: .256
OBP: .304
SLG: .308
HR: 1
SB: 29

by DuikeBuike on Mar 4, 2009 2:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

mlb 2k9 frandsen!!

http://sports.espn.go.com/videogames/news/story?id=3884838

KEVIN FRANDSEN | #19 | 2B
.281, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 33 2B

by Auriliarific on Mar 4, 2009 3:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I am SO using this for this season's Gameday Threads

My plans for 2009: getting married and attending Tim Lincecum Bobblehead Day.

by Kitspool on Mar 4, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

I didn’t think Frandsen had a goatee.

Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."

by natteringnabob on Mar 4, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What's with that puddle of blue liquid under Fred?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

by baetown415 on Mar 4, 2009 4:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Manny Ramirez melted

Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil

by SoFa King Mike on Mar 4, 2009 7:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

According to my MLB Front Office Manager

Burriss is going to hit .313 with 18 HRs and 34 SBs in 2009..

Baseball is a lot like life. The line drives are caught, the squibbles go for base hits. It's an unfair game. -Rod Kanehl

by j14 on Mar 4, 2009 3:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not bad not bad at all, but according to my baseball mogul 2008, marcus sanders will hit .320 and steal 62 bases.

Why does Sabean always look constipated?

by TexasRanger on Mar 4, 2009 10:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Let Baseball Mogul sing it out:

Frandsen: 157 games, .291/.331/.436, 10 HR (41 2b!!!).

Unfortunately, the Giants only win 68 games. Ouch.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Mar 4, 2009 11:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

18 HRs?

In one season? He probably won’t make it to 18 in his career. That’s an impressive sim.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 5, 2009 10:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Only 83 RBI? He sucks!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Mar 4, 2009 11:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen:
AVG: .274
OBP: .325
SLG: .411
HR: 10

Burriss:
Avg: .253
OBP:.340
SLG: .306
HR: 1 (stops at second when umps mistakenly rule it a ground rule double before reversing their decision. Pinch runner Bengie Molina scores the run.)

My plans for 2009: getting married and attending Tim Lincecum Bobblehead Day.

by Kitspool on Mar 4, 2009 3:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I’m way more bullish on Frandsen than I am on Burriss. I expect more out of Frandsen than I do out of Burriss, offensively. But I also think Frandsen will provide above average defense.

My projections about mirror Grant’s.

I'm thinking but nothing's happening.

by JRPhillips on Mar 4, 2009 3:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I hope...

Burriss starts at SS in Fresno. I don’t want them to give up on him as a SS, we don’t have the depth in the upper levels at short for him to move to 2B.

Though, I could see Renteria having to slide over to 2B at some point if his D has really dropped off as much as some say it has. Then I guess Burriss would take SS, unless we acquire someone.

by The Double Deuce on Mar 4, 2009 4:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen:
BA: .289
OBP: .340
SLG: .415
HR: 12
SB: 15 (14 of which will be after the all star break)

Burriss:
BA: .302
OBP: .362
SLG:.335
HR: 5
SB: 42
GS: 140 (all at SS at fresno)

Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?

by Speedforthewin on Mar 4, 2009 4:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Baron Pickoff von Ironglove

AB: 278
BA: .263
OBP: .298
SLG: .368
HR: 5
SB: 23
number of plays that cause the McCoven to slap their foreheads collectively: 27

Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?

by Speedforthewin on Mar 4, 2009 4:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen

PA: 550
BA: .276
OBP: .335
SLG: .441
HR: 13
SB: 4
Defense: slightly below-average (-3)

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

by baetown415 on Mar 4, 2009 4:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t really see the HR spike some of you do.

Frandsen

AB 480
OBP .330
SLG .410
HR 8
SB 6

by out machine on Mar 4, 2009 4:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Fran:

AB:535
AVG: .283
OBP: .342
SLG: .414
HR: 10
SB: 17

Burr:

AB: 525
AVG: .277
OBP: 341
SLG: 323
HR: 2
SB: 38

"I didn't know (after seeing a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch) whether to shit or go blind." - Former Giants Outfielder Harvey Kuenn on Willie Mays

by stealth snail on Mar 4, 2009 4:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Burriss to Fresno for a year, I want him seasoned

Frandsen
AVG: .286
OBP: .345
SLG: .411
HR: 15
SB: 4
I have faith he will be able to do well hitting in a good spot in the lineup – 7
Burriss
AVG: .272
OBP: .318
SLG: .333
HR: 1
SB: 35

by gimpsta7 on Mar 4, 2009 5:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Mmm, cumin.

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Mar 4, 2009 5:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that’s a porn site.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Mar 4, 2009 11:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Fresno for Burriss = Brining for my delicious chicken dinner

by Johnny Disaster on Mar 4, 2009 7:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Projections Based on Shared Playing Time

I guess I don’t follow directions well, but this is how I figure it will actually go, unfortunately :

Frandsen

AB: 228
AVG: .259
OBP: .332
SLG: .377
HR: 4
SB: 2

Burriss

AB: 153
AVG: .216
OBP: .288
SLG: .288
HR: 0
SB: 9

Velez (utility role, rmostly 2B)

AB: 288
AVG: .257
OBP: .293
SLG: .375
HR: 3
SB: 18

by koel on Mar 4, 2009 5:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

this

None off the three are the “answer” at 2B, but Frandsen will work fine for what he’s worth. Velez is going to get some PT too, but we really should move (trade) one of the three.

Do we ever expect Burriss to win a gold glove at short or hit .300? If the answer is no, the destination is Fresno.

by zuma420 on Mar 5, 2009 1:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen

AB: 509
AVG: .272
OBP: .313
SLG: .391
HR: 14
SB: 8

Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt

by Giant among Angels on Mar 4, 2009 8:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Kevin Frandsen at 2B: accept no substitutes

Or put it another way: let’s assume 2 players in the minors, both vying for the same job. Their career minor league stats:

Player A:
979 AB .328 avg .393 OBP .459 SLG BB/K: 62/86 HBP: 47

Player B:
820 AB .285avg . 347 OBP .337 OBP BB/K: 69/97 HBP: 13

Now, obviously, those are just some of the stats available, but they are significant none the less. And I think you’ve all figured out that Player A is Kevin and Player B is Manny. My point would be: what is there about Frandsen’s development that doesn’t cause optimism? Sure, he won’t post those numbers in the majors – but he gives every indication he’ll be a least a solid-average ML hitter for his position. And he may be the Ron Hunt of his generation. Wouldn’t it be great if, at this point in 2011, we could see the same results from Nick Noonan (or any of our other prospective middle infielders)? What’s not to like about this guy? Let’s worry about more important things, like whether or not Brian Wilson can flourish as our closer, or how we can compete while overpaying Zito and Rowand, or why garlic fries aren’t a nationwide phenomenon. 2B is settled. At least until Matt Downs blows everybody away.

Kevin Frandsen
AVG: .287
OBP: .372
SLG: .433
HR: 9
HBP: 16
Heartwarming stories about his brother in national media: 7

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.

by Lyle on Mar 5, 2009 6:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I have about 4 mancrushes on this year’s Giants squad, Franny is one of them.

by Great Success! on Mar 5, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Frandsen

AVG:.270
OBP: .325.
SLG: .410.
HR: 6

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Mar 5, 2009 6:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Hey Kool-Aid!

Now in Frandsenberry.

Close second: Fresnoloupe. I’d agree with sending Burriss to ~~hell~~ Fresno if I thought he would learn something there. Position players developed in AAA=? Mel Ott? Pedro? Bueller?

Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."

by natteringnabob on Mar 5, 2009 4:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs