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Sabertooth
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Gross Production Average, a variation of OPS, but more accurate and easier to interpret. The exact formula is (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4, adjusted for ballpark factor. The scale of GPA is similar to BA: .200 is lousy, .265 is around average and .300 is a star. A simple formula for converting GPA to runs is PA*1.356*(GPA^1.77).
Why “OBP*1.8” ? Why is OBP regarded higher and why at that rate?
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
Also, here’s a pretty good Tango thread on the topic. Some math is included.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/why_does_17obpslg_make_sense/
Trying to figure out why the wanted to get here:
Event Actual Regressed
1B: 0.474 0.485
2B: 0.764 0.786
3B: 1.063 1.087
HR: 1.409 1.389
BB: 0.336 0.313
out: -0.302 -0.286
I got here to find the 1.8
http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-08.pdf
But need to research Palmer’s Linear Weights to figure out how they got there.
Still not figuring out why OBP should be more valuable than SLG. Other than a quote from DePodesta, David Wright, and one author who was glad because GPA removed Freddy Garcia’s Batting Title year from among the top players of that season (based off of OPS).
Sorry, but when I see random statistics I often try to find the reasoning behind it, because it often leads back to someone trying to confirm their own predestined opinion or selling their point of view. (No, I never do that at work)
OBP > SLG is an opinion not a fact, imo. lol. They should be judged separately anyway.
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
it's not random just because you don't understand it.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I don't think that's what he meant
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
From the link above
“Analysts have performed regressions and used other tools, and a consensus* has been reached that a OBP multiplying factor close to 1.8 is an accurate estimate of correlating to runs scored (in other words, using 1.8 * OBP+ SLG yields the "best" estimate of the batter’s value).”
Based off of what now? Table 2 looks good if you assume the OBP is 1.8 times more valuable than SLG. Still searching for that 1.8 proof.
*consensus: “group solidarity in sentiment and belief”
Another DePodesta quote, saying a point in OBP is 3 times as valuable in SLG. Did that equate into the 1.8?
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
it is likely
that DePo is full of “De Poo”. And if you read the above PDF, the guy tries to get to DePos’ 3 by giving extra credit for walks tiring the pitcher, but can only get to 2.0…
1.8 is not a number to be proven, it’s an estimate based on empirical data.
Take this
LW (linear weights) values are walk = .33 run, single = .46, double = .80, triple = 1.02, home run = 1.40, out = -.27.
The formula (below) is that the sum of these x batting line = runs.
These numbers are determined empirically. There is no theoretical basis for them. They vary (slightly) depending on the year and league of baseball you use to derive them.
If you want to know double/walk:
(double + notout) = 1.07
(walk + notout) = .60
1.07/ 0.6 = 1.78.
OBP = (BB + H) / PA
SLG = (H + 2B + 2*3B + 3*HR) / (PA – BB)
We want OBP x K + SLG = RUNS/PA
The rest is just algebra, with a couple of approximations (because SLG uses ABs as a demoninator, not PAs) thrown in, you get K = 1.7 – 1.8. (See tangotiger link)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Why are you trying to increase the value of OBP? Why not SLG? Why would you increase the value of the measure that on some circumstances (walks) moves any potential baserunners up only one bag?
ps. I do like the linear weights stuff you’re throwing at me. I definitely need to read up on it.
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
Because he used actual game data to figure out the run value of a walk, 1B, 2B, etc.
And it turns out that walks, even though deficient for all the reasons you just mentioned, are still worth more than 1/3rd of a double, 1/2 of a single, etc.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Right
He’s determined that the value of each event is:
Event RegressedRunValue
1B: 0.485
2B: 0.785
3B: 1.084
HR: 1.384
BB: 0.314
out: -0.286
Which is pretty similar to the value they hold as a SLG:OBP Ratio, correct?
The 1.8 (or 1.73 used in the example) makes a lot more sense to me after some rest using the zenbitz’s “OBP x K + SLG = RUNS/PA” I think I was making it harder than it had to be. I’ll just agree with tangotiger where he says
I definitely don’t condone any form of OPS. I should have made that clear. But, if you are going to use OBP and SLG, one should combine them in an intelligent fashion.
GPA >>> OPS (if it has to be done)
But I’ll still keep them separate, makes Pablo look better.
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
I give up
it’s a marginal formula, meaning that it measures the change in OBP and change in SLG against the change in RE (i.e., LWTS).
So, it’s not Runs equals all that.
Hit dingers, Giants player.
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
Bah...
Keep fighting the good fight, ResDog.
If people truly want analysis that means anything, they will not be so combative when challenged. Asking questions, doubting the established and peering under the hood of consensus is what the scientific process is all about.
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 31, 2009 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
is that I patiently explain
linear weights every spring?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
c'mon man
A double gets the same value of “not out” as the walk"
double = 1.8 + 2.0
walk = 1.8
double:walk :: 3.8 : 1.8 :: 2.1 : 1
In regular OPS
double = 1 + 2.0
walk = 1.0
double:walk :: 3 : 1
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Nope, it’s a gigantic penis (at least if you look at it to scale) about to do it doggystyle.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
I reall should have titled it "Butt"
but I figured that was a little one the nose.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
yes. 3:1 is wrong.
but a double is still better than a walk. (Except with bases loaded bottom 9 tie game)
Linear weights is simply taking the aggregate batting line for a season (all teams) or multiple seasons and fitting a linear equation to batting events = total runs.
a*1B + b*2B + c*3B + d*HR + e*BB – f*OUTS … (for Sac/SF/SB/CS etc) = RUNS.
If do make a runs created formula, you usually divide by opportunities (PAs) or Outs.
If you do this – you get a ratio of 2B:BB that is more like 2:1 than 3:1.
This formula is quite accurate for given eras, but is kind of a pain in the ass to calculate on the fly.
OBP and SLG are readily available. You can add them or multiply them and get a reasonable measure of “total offensive prowess” (after accounting for park and league avgs. of course).
But OBP*1.7sih + SLG fits better than clean OBP+SLG.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
james van der beek again displays my zito angst.
by Giant Voodoo on Mar 30, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
JVDB CAN SUCK IT!!!
You probably know it as MYANMAR, but it will always be BURMA to me!
by NuschlerFace on Mar 30, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
This is actually what James looks like AFTER he sucks it. it is “the lap dance is always better when the stripper cries” mentality.
by Giant Voodoo on Mar 30, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
i continue to be stunned
at the number of writers who say something resembling the following: “How good will Pablo Sandoval be? It’s tough to say, but there’s no way he’ll continue to hit at the .340 clip he averaged in the majors last season.”
Really? No way? We’re talking about someone who’s batting over .400 in ST, and busted out in the minors for a .350 average in roughly 450 at bats. Sure, it’s unlikely he continues to hit .340, but sometimes 21 year olds do just suddenly put it all together like that. It happens. While I think it would be foolish for a writer to just look at last year’s big league numbers and project more of the same over a full season, it’s similarly idiotic to project a massive dropoff because someone suddenly got really good at age 21.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Mar 30, 2009 12:25 PM PDT reply actions
For fun, here’s a list of every player over the last 10 years who hit .340 or better (minimum playing time of 500 PA’s).
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/25ve
It’s got a shit ton of Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Ichiro, and Todd Helton. And, wow, who remembers that Melvin Mora hit .340 in 2004?
i suppose i’m objecting more to the tone than the facts. the fact that pablo sandoval almost certainly won’t hit .340 isn’t objectionable. the tone that seems to suggest he’s going to be a barely above average hitter does.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Mar 30, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions
if you like odds
then you bet against ANYONE to hit .340, this side of Tyrus Raymond Cobb*. I would bet against Ichiro to hit .340 in 2009.
*I looked it up… the last guy to have a career BA > .340 was actually Ted Williams, pretty much the best hitter ever. Helton, Gywnn, Ichiro and Pujols have career BAs >.330.
Here is the complete list of people who hit >.347 at age 22 after 1900.
Ted Williams+ </w/willite01.shtml>* (22) .4057 1941 L
Joe Jackson </j/jacksjo01.shtml>* (22) .3951 1912 L
Ty Cobb+ </c/cobbty01.shtml>* (22) .3770 1909 L
Freddie Lindstrom+ </l/lindsfr01.shtml> (22) .3576 1928 R
Stan Musial+ </m/musiast01.shtml>* (22) .3566 1943 L
Jimmy Sheckard </s/sheckji01.shtml>* (22) .3538 1901 L
Eddie Collins+ </c/collied01.shtml>* (22) .3468 1909 L
Joe DiMaggio+ </d/dimagjo01.shtml> (22) .3462 1937 R
Bunch of guys in the 1800s as well.
You might note that other than Shoeless Joe and Jimmy Sheckard (poster boy for 1901 steroid scandal?) all these guys are in the HOF. You might also note that it has never been done post integration – or even post WWII.
PS – I cut the list at .3477 because that’s when the list of top 500 ba leaders from br ends. I don’t think I’m missing much.
So, yeah “no way”
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
So you’re saying that Sandoval is a HOFer?
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
if he hits .340 next year then yeah, he probably is
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
that would be an interesting list
number of guys since 1933 that have hit .340 over 500PAs in MLB and are not in the HOF.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I think you can put
Erstad in there safely…
No one mentioned Robinson Cano?? Hit .342 as a 23 y.o. Of course, he never hit anywhere near that in the minors or since either… (caveat: he hit .333 in 114 PAs at AAA… but the list of guys that have done THAT is pretty long)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
and by "in there"
I mean in the group that will never sniff the HOF without a ticket.
Also, Freddie Sanchez, and Placido Polanco.
Not sure where to come down on Robinson Cano. He did hit .342 as a 23 year old.
What all these guys have in common is
a) no one expected them to hit .340
b) they never did it again (again, we can wait for Cano)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
That article sucks
Besides Smoke’s criticism above, the author’s disinterest in Ishikawa (especially considering the power he’s flashed this spring), and lumping of Winn with Rowand as “nothing special” (let’s see: Winn has been reliable on both offense and defense, and is paid a lot less than Rowand) make me wonder what standards THT has. Seems like the same anti-Giants tripe I’ve read a million times before. Gee, it sure is fun to heap scorn upon Sabean, isn’t it generic writer number 51?
Really? I thought the article was pretty good and summed up some legitimate concerns about the ’09 team.
Seems like the same anti-Giants tripe I’ve read a million times before
Really?
And I will give you that calling Randy Winn ‘nothing special’ isn’t how I would describe him — I think he’s tragically been underrated in the past few years. But, the overall tone of the article (to me at least) seemed to be pretty good.
well
i wouldnt say it was good (hehe), but it was based in reality. Pablo isnt a savior, Zito is struggling to be just useful, and ishikawa will be lucky to produce much in the same way frandsen and buriss would be. As much at these unknown commodities scare me, at least I have a reason to watch the giants play. I love rich aurilia, but i know what im getting (a fake bunt and a gritty single/strikeout).
I look forward to either Franny, Pablo, Zito, or Buriss producing way more than anyone thought this year… but no way we get even most of them to outdo their previous performances.
by Giant Voodoo on Mar 30, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
This is the part I disagreed with
And in the outfield, Sabean had already locked in over-30 nothing-specials Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn to lucrative long-term deals, blocking Nate Schierholtz, one of the few system-produced young position players who might be worth a serious chance.
Winn is on the last year of his deal. Equating him with locking up Rowand is just not very honest. And this is aside from the fact that Winn is a pretty good player.
Also, it seems ironic to me that people who made their very name by providing analysis fail to do so at more than a perfunctory level when it comes to the Giants. This isn’t the first time some of the more “respected” baseball sites have taken superficially thought out pot-shots at the organization. I mean, we still see the occasional “Da Giantz r Oldz” articles even when they weren’t beginning with the 2nd half of last season.
Some (most?) of the chiding is deserved of course. But it appears to me as if there is a prejudicial element to these site’s take on the Giants.
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 30, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I agree that the Winn comment isn’t something I really agree with. Maybe I’m so jaded that I don’t see a lot of it as pot-shots, but calling it like it is? I dunno.
I’m very curmudgeony about the Giants sometimes.
This sentence is also pretty lazy:
But alongside the opening up of three-quarters of the infield to a youth movement, GM Brian Sabean has signed 33-year-old Edgar Renteria as a stopgap shortstop, probably just as the veteran begins his decline.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
at the end of the day, sabes has earned his scorn.
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Mar 30, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure that Treder's a Giants fan
having read him at BBref for the last decade or so.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Yes, being realistic isn’t fun.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Bochy's Opening Day Motivational Speech:
Hey, even a blind squirrel can sometimes find an acorn… we can win the West! Now get out there and bust your bushy tails you Squirrels!
I would classify this article as "meh"
His first four points are probably the most important factors for the Giants to succeed, but at the end he kind of loses me a little. As has already been said, grouping Randy Winn and Aaron Rowand signings in the same category is unfair and shortsighted.
Also, I know there are still a lot of Sabean haters out there, but him stating that “All in all it’s apparent that Sabean doesn’t have a coherent master plan; basically he seems to be riding the Lincecum-Cain horse and crossing his fingers” is also extremely shortsighted, especially considering he doesn’t even mention how Sabean has completely turned around the Giants farm system in such a short time.
"I didn't know (after seeing a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch) whether to shit or go blind." - Former Giants Outfielder Harvey Kuenn on Willie Mays
Yeah
I remember when I joined up here a 2+ years ago, there was much hand wringing about how aside from this kid “Lincecum” and this “Villalona” fellow, the system was full of garbage. So from “garbage except for 2 prospects” to “top 10 (or at least top half) minor league system in baseball” in two years is pretty impressive, especially since one of those two untouchables isn’t in the minors anymore
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
and looking again
it wasn’t even that long. Hrm, I coulda sworn I was around for the ’07 draft…
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I’m a bit more optimistic than the Harball Times writer, but I don’t like his use of stats in his prose. “Wadda wadda, doing well getting better last year, but then WPA of .257. Ishikawa will suck” Based on 100 PA last year. “WPA really high, blah blah, won’t happen again. Sandoval will be meh and at 1st base below average.” WPA is simply there.
He mentions the team WPA was .240 last year. That Aurilia Bowker were worse than he expects TI to be. Without looking it up I’ll just guess Castillo’s WPA was pretty bad. So then what happens if you replace poor performers with Average?
Profit.
This is what he writes one TI and first base:
"the other two aspirants are sophomore John Bowker and veteran utilityman Rich Aurilia, who platooned at the position over the balance of 2008, and neither of whom—you guessed it—hit even as well as Ishikawa.
In other words, unless something very pleasantly surprising occurs, the 2009 Giants will once again yield feeble offense from their crew at first base."
In other words, it means that last year was extra-super feeble, so feeble will be a massive improvement. Repeat at 3b and (depending on defense) at SS.
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
Two words refute your argument:
Ray Durham
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
The article follows the format of looking at offensive production separately from position to position, a silly mistake, and I did too – I was refuting his point that “the offense from their crew at 1b” and then repeated for 3b and SS. I left 2b out because Ray had done so well. But looking at the IF offense (OF will stay pretty much the same or at least same players), it is moving from super feeble to simply feeble, even with the subtraction of Ray because Ray didn’t actually contribute so much and the offense around him was sooo poor.
Ray’s WPA was .274. I could be like the author of that article and stop there, but think about the effect that .274 had on the Giants mean WPA (2.40) in comparison with the replacement at 1st, SS and 3rd. Ray was above the Giant’s average, but only represented 300 PA. Castillo’s WPA was .224 in 420 PA, Vizquel .192 in 300PA, Bowker .235 in 350PA and Aurilia .250 in 440. And Velez .228WPA in 300 PA. (Burriss was right on .240 the giant’s average in 275 WPA). For completeness’s sake Ochoa’s WPA was .175 (135 PA) Bocock’s 154 in 100 PA.
Ray was .034 above average, Vizquel was .048 below in the same number of PA.
Now getting 400-500 ABs from Ishikawa at 255-265 WPA looks a lot better to me. Sure, that is below average for a 1st baseman (I think he can do better), but one component of a markedly improved IF offense.
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
dang autoformat.
Also, as Castillo’s former daddy, I’d like to point out that Uribe’s WPA last season was .221, 220 in 07 and 222 in 06. He runs dingerz.exe better than Joe Castle, but I guess hitting doubles counts for something.
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
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