A Daydream about Contending
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 27, 2009 10:41 AM PDT
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PrintIf you constructed a preseason scenario in which the 2008 Giants made the playoffs, you probably had to ignore big chunks of reality. It was probably like a bad sci-fi movie; "okay, so the aliens attack, and then the world's all messed up, but then one of the characters takes a couple of minutes to write a virus that knocks out the alien computer system" became "okay, so Randy Winn hits for power like he did when he came over from the Mariners, Barry Zito wins another Cy Young, and Aaron Rowand's production doesn't decline a bit." You might have done it in the name of short-term satisfaction, but you still just ended up insulting your intelligence.
Doing a similar scenario for the 2009 Giants still requires some imagination, but you don't need to break laws of nature to get there. Let's see, Matt Cain takes a huge step forward (25% chance of happening), Aaron Rowand rebounds substantially (25%), Pablo Sandoval hits .320 with power (25%), and Barry Zito is a league-average pitcher (25%), and the Giants are contenders! That sure reads nice, but 25%4 comes out to about .4%. All four of those happening at the same time? Not bloody likely. But there are an infinite number of permutations that would lead, however unlikely, to a playoff berth. My dream scenario of what an unlikely contender might look like:
- One of the two players on wretched long-term deals, Zito or Rowand, performing well enough to make us temporarily glad that they were on the team
- One of the older, not-really-prospects like Fred Lewis or Kevin Frandsen having an unexpectedly fantastic year
- One of the players that I don't have a lot of faith in, like Travis Ishikawa or Manny Burriss, making me look real stupid
- Pablo Sandoval going nutty. This one is a fixture in every scenario
- A prospect -- not necessarily in the top 10 -- producing immediately upon reaching the big leagues
- Matt Cain moving from really good to fantastic, or Jonathan Sanchez moving from inconsistent to really good
- Parasitic worms! Parasitic worms! Parasitic worms in a Dodger post-game spread!
That would be a ridiculously fun season to watch. Imagine a team with Lewis, Sandoval, and Burriss all performing up their 90th-percentile PECOTA projections while the starting rotation does well. Favorite. Team. Ever. After being forced to consider players like Marvin Benard and Pedro Feliz the best examples of Giants' homegrown hitting talent in the past decade, a team with two or three homegrown hitters contributing to a playoff run would be tattoo-worthy. Like, huge Sandoval and Lewis likenesses covering my entire back. And one of them would be rocking out on a Flying V while the other one wrestled a wyvern with his bare hands. That's how awesome this team would be if it made the playoffs.
You say, "Pfft. So unlikely, it isn't even worth a second of my time." I say, "1997." A combination of J.T. Snow, Kirk Rueter, and Shawn Estes busting out with career years, Julian Tavarez getting a double play grounder whenever he wanted, a magic journeyman catcher, and having a winning record despite being outscored is far more ridiculous than what we're doing here. Even if bleak, Giants-related cynicism has totally blackened your sad little heart, you probably still give the Giants a 1% chance of contending. So share that scenario with us in a....
Comment starter: Your unlikely dream combination that leads to a Giants' playoff run.
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I predicted a 100 loss season last year...
and I was wrong. This year I am optimistic, which means the Giants will loose 100.
Your just pissed of that the early 2000 teams took your Growth hormones
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Mar 27, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
100 -- Not!
The odds of the Giants’ losting 100 games last season were perhaps one in four or five. The odds they will lose 100 games this season are perhaps one in 10 or 20.
I too predicted 100 losses last year, and I was clearly wrong. This year I’m more optimistic, but I still think .500 is about the best we can expect.
How could the Giants be in contention? Hmm, maybe if Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand suddenly decide to forfeit their contracts, and right at the same time, Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton are accidentally DFAed at the same time, and decide to sign with the Giants for the league minimum.
Or if the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are much, much worse than I think they will be.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
You are a cynical one, aren't you?
No wonder you’re so filled with rage.
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Mar 27, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
When I was in high school, I was in Academic Decathlon (because ladies love the AcaDeca!) and when my team went to the state finals, I won a silver medal for the essay category by writing an essay arguing in favor of the virtues of cynicism. WHO WANTS TO TOUCH ME?
Anyway, I’m optimistic when it’s deserved, pessimistic when it’s not. It’s all conditional.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
I won a silver medal for the essay category by writing an essay arguing in favor of the virtues of cynicism. WHO WANTS TO TOUCH ME
wow…
The essay also dealt with the public reaction to the death of Princess Diana. I AM COOL.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
Which reminds me of how my wife and I used to have a running joke about how Billy Blanks is an android with USB ports for nipples. Maybe that’s also xanthan’s true identity.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
Whaaat?
xanthan is a pair of USB nips?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
I just took a corporate personailty profile thng and one of my strengths came back as “Positivity” which translated to contageous enthusiasm. We complete each other.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
MY LOVE IS COMPLETE!!
I had a breakfast meeting with my boss this morning. I was expecting him to make some kind of comment about what happened.
He didn’t. I feel so…..rejected.
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 27, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
When you prepare for the worst you're never unpleasantly surprised.
Aw , Cooky , do I really hafta?
OK if I adopt Randy Johnson?
"What kind of a stupid question is that?"
by victor frankenstein on Mar 28, 2009 5:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Realistic
.500 as somewhat of a best-case scenario in 2009 is far more realistic than 100 losses last season. Predicting .500 as a most-likely-case as you did with 100 losses last season would probably place both predictions in about the same level of likelihood.
Speaking of bad sci-fi (syfy?) movies
I’m cautiously optimistic about our young guys, not so much for our older ones. I think the pitching staff will do pretty well. Also Travis Ishikawa MVP. You heard it here first, folks.
Wow. I see that, and raise you this (Warning: may be NSFW due to graphic violence). I can’t wait to watch Dead Snow.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Dod Sno!
I cannot wait for that movie to come out here. Zombie Nazis in Norway! WIN!
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Also, have you heard about Treevenge? It’s only a short – it opened for Dead Snow at Sundance – but it looks brilliant. I showed it to a friend of mine and she claims to still be getting nightmares from it.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Awesome.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Like, huge Sandoval and Lewis likenesses covering my entire back. And one of them would be rocking out on a Flying V while the other one wrestled a wyvern with his bare hands
I am totally getting this tattoo after work today.
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 27, 2009 11:00 AM PDT reply actions
Oh, and my prediction for this year was 79 wins. I am standing by that.
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 27, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
This would be a great new design for you, Natto.
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 27, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, except make yours less subtle.
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Mar 27, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
OK, now I need to leave work early so I can see this image.
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 27, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
make it happen
Baseball is a lot like life. The line drives are caught, the squibbles go for base hits. It's an unfair game. -Rod Kanehl
1 – the rest of the NL West is as bad as we think it will be. ie: no one wins more than 85 games.
2 – Bochy manages intelligently
3 – The defense plays around league average
4 – We average 4.5 runs a game
by positiveuphemism on Mar 27, 2009 11:00 AM PDT reply actions
4 relies on 2.
2 however is unlikely. I think when the Padres let Bochy go the implanted a radio control in his head, to assist him with making calls. Why else would his head be so big?
I think we did something similar with the GM down south.
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Mar 27, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
2 has to be the most far-fetched condition possible.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Andres Torres makes the team, replacing Aaron Rowand, and hits 65 HR’s! Also, Buster Posey toes the rubber.
1- ManRam test positive banned 50 games injures hammy (drug test would let D’gers off the salary hook
2- Webb, Haren, Upton and all other promising D’Backs test positive for drugs
3- All promising rockie stars are picture with Michael Phelps and you know what…
4- Padres stay the same
5- Giants build huge lead, and lead wire to wire
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Mar 27, 2009 11:12 AM PDT reply actions
* One of the older, not-really-prospects like Fred Lewis or Kevin Frandsen having an unexpectedly fantastic year
* One of the players that I don’t have a lot of faith in, like Travis Ishikawa or Manny Burriss, making me look real stupid
At this point, I think Burriss is more likely to be an offensive plus than Frandsen, although it takes far less than that for Grant to look stupid.
My Giants’ success formula pretyt much revolves around Pablo being Pablo, Lewis driving in runs and Renteria looking more like he did in 2007 than last year.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
At this point, I think Burriss is more likely to be an offensive plus than Frandsen, although it takes far less than that for Grant to look stupid.
I’m pretty sure Burriss is going to SLG something like .275
But he's slugging .492 this spring!
As long as he gets on base, I almost couldn’t care less what his SLG is.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I just fear that he’s going to turn into the infield version of Jason Tyner. His similar player comps of modest OBP, zero power aren’t very pretty.
I think if he can defend at 2B + 5 to + 10 runs, he might work out but I think calling him a better offensive player than Frandsen is a tad premature. This pretty much sums up my fears on Burriss:
ZiPS doesn’t like Burriss. The system has projected him to lose almost 40 points of OBP while still hitting like Omar Vizquel. Burriss’ player-type — above average OBP with below average power — is one that includes a lot of ugly player comps. If you checked out a list of hitters with an OBP of .350 or greater and a SLG of .340 or lower, you’ll find players like: The corpse of Luis Castillo, Julio Lugo (2008 version), Mark McLemore, Brad Ausmus, and a lot of Walt Weiss. If Burriss can’t maintain a .350-ish OBP then he’s going to turn into Omar Vizquel without the glove.
WALT WEISS WAS ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AFTER JOSE CANSECO AND MARK MCGWIRE SO HE IS AS GOOD AS JOSE CANSECO AND MARK MCGWIRE.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
Also
Burriss’ top PECOTA comp is Bip Roberts—-needless to say, we’d all be thrilled with that kind of offense.
Roberts might be a upper-end player comp, his career line is: .294/.358/.380 and if Burriss could do that, it would be awesome.
Every time I hear of/see Bip Roberts, I think of a season towards end of his career, when he’d been out for a while with an injury. In his first at-bat back, he was running to first, reinjured himself, and ended up lying face-down in the dirt.
I always felt bad for him for that. That’s got to be tough to deal with.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
I don’t see it as at all likely, but having a good PECOTA comp always helps me to feel better about and legitimize crazy optimistic projections.
“See, Nate Silver said it might happen, so it MIGHT happen!”
He’s good at making predictions about African-American men who have a name beginning with B!
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
OMG, our B man is from DC and the other B man to which you refer now resides DC…
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Mar 27, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
*takes off glasses*
…my God.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
And one has been nicknamed Barry, while the other has been nicknamed Manny – both five-letter, two-syllable names that start with a consonant and a vowel, followed by a double consonant and a y. SHOCKING.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
Manny and Barry are also the 1st names of the 2 best african american hitters of the past decade.
Is Man Ram African american?
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Mar 27, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends on how you define African-American. Some use it to mean anyone who’s Black and in America. Some use it to mean people descended from Antebellum American slaves. With the latter definition, neither Obama or Ramirez are African-American, since one’s father was Kenyan and the other is of Dominican descent.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
Yes. But people who use the second definition usually use it to specifically mean slaves in what is now the United States, as opposed to the Caribbean and South America.
As with most things to do with racial definition, it’s very complicated and slippery and doesn’t necessarily always make sense.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Mar 27, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
FWIW, I have more faith in Burriss outplaying his projections than I do in Renteria returning to 2007 form.
My plans for 2009: getting married and attending Tim Lincecum Bobblehead Day.
I don’t think anyone is expecting Renteria to OPS+ over 120 again, but I think he’ll be closer to his non-2003 and 2007 years.
renteria on my mindgrapes
i had an optimistic projection for DiaRenteria, but both Baggs and Hank have been really, really down on Edgar all spring. The rest of the world seems to think dude is done. And, now at the end of spring, our own beat writers have joined the chorus of doomsayers. Neither his bat nor his defense has really shown up.
Given that Burriss (widely considered not ready for MLB) has “won” the 2B battle with Franny (widely considered to be MLB-ready) doesn’t that basically invalidate the logic that a veteran SS was necessary? Couldn’t we just have Franny play SS? Too much youth up the middle?
I hope dude doesn’t suck, but I am not as optimistic as I was when he signed. I’m actually quite concerned. not sure my mindgrapes can whip-up a fantasy where Renteria works out….
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Mar 27, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Really? I saw a recent post from Baggs that praised Renteria for a nice play that he made and said he looked average-ish this spring.
yes, really. but a wee sampling of their damning praise:
Edgar Renteria moved the slowest I’ve seen him this spring. Maybe Omar Vizquel’s warning was prescient. If the cold and windy conditions bothered Renteria, he’d better learn to get used to them. And fast.
from Baggs…
I haven’t seen a lot of hard-hit balls by Rowand or Renteria. That would not be a concern at this stage of spring if both had good years in 2008, but they didn’t.
from Hank…
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Mar 27, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Ground balls
While the title of my post is giving me groin pain, the key to Manny’s success at the plate is to hit more ground balls and bunt more often. The Giants want him to attempt to bunt for a hit at least once a game, which seems a good idea since he batted over .500 for the Giants on bunts last season. In addition, Manny improved from 50% ground balls (at $3.99 a pound) to 60% ground balls (at $4.99) with the Giants.
Major league pitchers might do better to try to pitch Manny up and in more often. Certainly he’s not likely to punish them with power if they do so.
Burriss, Schierholtz and Sandoval are the young position players I believe in. I’m not holding my breath for Ishikawa and Frandsen
Wall-E for Best Picture 2008
by Useful_Idiot on Mar 27, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Randy Johnson's surly badassery rubs off on Cain and Sanchez...
…leaving us with the most feared rotation in the league.
With FLew and Big Panda going crazy, Rowand feels less pressure to be The Big Hitter and has a decent season.
Also, the “Free Pony and Plastic Rocket Day” promotion in June is a huge success.
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
In a brilliant strategic and marketing move, the Giants give away all their unsold tickets for each game to a contigent of 10,000 Korean WBC fans. The constant noise from the drumming and chanting so distracts opposing teams that the Giants finish with a 71-10 home record.
Hey, it could happen.
My plans for 2009: getting married and attending Tim Lincecum Bobblehead Day.
by Kitspool on Mar 27, 2009 11:30 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This please
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Giants deal for Adrian Beltre in mid-July
And he repeats his second half numbers from his last contract year, 2004 (with or without HGH)
Beltre’s 2nd Half, 2004: .356 AVG, .423 OBP, .683 SLG, 26 HR, 65 RBI, 6 SB
by www.westcoastbias.com on Mar 27, 2009 12:00 PM PDT reply actions
After being forced to consider players like Marvin Benard and Pedro Feliz the best examples of Giants’ homegrown hitting talent in the past decade, a team with two or three homegrown hitters contributing to a playoff run would be tattoo-worthy. Like, huge Sandoval and Lewis likenesses covering my entire back. And one of them would be rocking out on a Flying V while the other one wrestled a wyvern with his bare hands. That’s how awesome this team would be if it made the playoffs.
I lol’d for like ten minutes
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I was amused, but also pedantic enough to point out that Marvin Benard came up about 14 years ago, and if you’re going to stretch the decade that far, he should be displaced by Bill Mueller.
I’m a sad, sad man.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
“okay, so the aliens attack, and then the world’s all messed up, but then one of the characters takes a couple of minutes to write a virus that knocks out the alien computer system”
1. Dodger Rotation = suck
2. Diamondbacks young core that we drool over continue to strikeout most of the time
3. Padres & Rockies do what we expect them to do
4. 81+ wins
That should do it
by CrispinGloversBalls on Mar 27, 2009 12:18 PM PDT reply actions
Never in recorded history has there been a username as disturbing as yours.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
NL West Champs? Sure, why not.
Last year at this time, fans along non-fans were saying the Giants will lose at least 100 and be in the NL West cellar. I guess I was very optimistic, I figured the Giants can’t be that terrible to lose 100; and they didn’t in their first post-Bonds era. Turned out Rockies were flukes in 2007 and the Padres went down faster than Paris Hilton.
So for 2009, why not let the Giants win the West after 5 non-playoff years and 4 losing seasons?
- They sure are not the favorites but the NL West doesn’t provide the competition that is the AL East.
- “Giants have less power than North Korea”. Agreed, but why not play to what they have instead – speed (except Pablo and Bengie of course). Play like Japan did in WBC, those guys have little power but they were hitting and running all game long with good pitching and defense.
- Unleash Cain. We knew Lincecum had great potential before 2008 but few expected a CY and the cover of MLB 2k9! Now it’s Matt’s turn – I’ll just throw out a wild, wild prediction of 20 wins and sub 3.00 era with a Cy Young to match RJ, TL and BZ.
Magic numbers: 92-70 for the G-men and the West banner.
Let’s party like it’s 1997 and make sure the Dodgers stay in 2nd place while the D-backs doesn’t exist.
Boom, roasted.
Mo'ped Money, Mo'ped Problems
you have no idea how high i can fly
by positiveuphemism on Mar 27, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I’ll just throw out a wild, wild prediction of 20 wins and sub 3.00 era with a Cy Young to match RJ, TL and BZ
Why not add Sandoval as NL MVP while you’re at it?
Wall-E for Best Picture 2008
by Useful_Idiot on Mar 27, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Matt Cain't Do It
Matt Cain doesn’t have the swing-through stuff to pitch like Tim Lincecum. Let me illustrate.
First premise: Tim Lincecum has even better stuff than Don Drysdale did.
Second premise: Drysdale had better stuff than Matt has.
Third premise: Thus far in his career Tim Lincecum has pitched even better than Drysdale did.
Fourth premise: In order for Matt to approach Drysdale, let alone Lincecum, he would need to have better control than did Drysdale.
Fifth face: Drysdale walked only 2.25 batters per nine innings, or more than a batter and a half LESS than Matt.
sharksrog knows better than to go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Now with updates!
*SNIFF*
Iocaine powder. I’d bet my life on it.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Giants 2009- Best case scenarios
Lincecum- 20 wins- All Star
Johnson- 15 wins- All Star
Cain- 15 wins- All Star
Zito- 13 wins
Sanchez- 13 wins
Wilson- 50 saves- All star
Howry- sub-3.00 ERA, All Star
Affelt- dominant lefty in pen
Merkin- the pleasant surprise of the year
Sabean- acquires a huge bullpen arm for the stretch run
There’s also a lot that could go right for the 2009 Giants line-up…
1. Winn .300/.350/.430, 10 HR, 25 SB- not bad for a lead-off hitter + solid “d” in RF
2. Renteria .750, 10 HR, adequate glove at SS, veteran stabilizing presence
3. Lewis .800+ OPS, 20 SB, 15 HR, 80 RS, 80 RBI, improved glove and routes in LF
4. Sandoval .820+ OPS, 15 HR, 90 RBI- gets AB’s at 3B, C, 1B
5. Molina .280/ .315/ .425, 15 HR, 85 RBI- beats career averages
6. Rowand .285/.345/.455, 15 HR, 80 RS, 80 RBI- see above
7. Ishikawa – good enough to stick in the bigs all season, “plus” defender at 1B
8. Burriss- ditto, “plus” defender at 2B
- Aurilia & Schirholtz are above average bats off the bench, when used in the right spots
- Frandsen turns into a serviceable .270 hitting utility infielder
- By September, Velez brings world class speed & Guzman a blazing PH bat
- MadBum call-up for bullpen, a la David Price, inspires amazing World Series run
- Giants lose to Red Sox in World Series, 4 games to 2.
Could happen. 1%chance.
Noah Lowry?
No way Howry is an All-Star.
Setup relievers never ever make the All-Star team.
Also, no way they lose to the stupid Red Sox.
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
You disproved your own premise
You disproved your own premise when it had five Giants pitchers on the All-Star team.
I think he was just describing the best case scenario by player, not saying all those things could happen at once.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Good point
So I guess my question to Grant would be how many of these fortuitous circumstances would need to come to pass for the Giants to have a real shot at winning the NL West.
If the NLW is all equal, the Giants have a 20% chance of winning it. That’s probably an upper bound. We’ll tack on another 5% for wildcard.
I would say they have at least a 10-15% chance of making the playoffs. Vegas says they are about 25:1 to win NL Pennant, which – assuming Billy Beane crapshoot theory – about a 16% chance of them making the playoffs.
Obviiously – we are talking an 85-95 win season. Which is probably +5-15 over average for this team. I would say at 89 wins they have ~50% chance of making the playoffs.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
How?
How do the Giants have at LEAST a 10-15% chance for the playoffs?
Let’s suppose it takes “only” 85 wins to make them. That would still represent an improvement of about 160 runs, or one per game. Where will that improvement come from?
I’m not saying it’s impossible for the 2009 Giants to make the playoffs. But a one-in-seven to one-in-10 chance seems quite high to me.
I'll bet you right now
$50 at 10:1 that they make the playoffs. An average team is only 4-5:1 against to make the playoffs. 8 playoff spots for 32 teams.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Drive for '09
- Cain loses the chick flicks and cat and finally becomes an agressive pitcher
- RJ teaches Sanchez how to really throw a slider
- Brooks Sandoval continues to impress
- Merkin Valdez finally is healthy
- Rowand relaxes
- Ishikawa provides a steady bat and power
- EME gets a callup and delivers
I like cats better than dogs.
Continuing to imply that it equates to a less aggression, and i will punch-isize your face, for free.
Proud new co-dad of Travis Ishikawa. And ishikaBOOM Goes the Dynamite.
by Andy from DC on Mar 27, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I WANT A GOODAMN LITER OF COLA
Proud new co-dad of Travis Ishikawa. And ishikaBOOM Goes the Dynamite.
by Andy from DC on Mar 27, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
This is fun. I spend 97 percent of my days dreaming about this kind of thing.
.295/.350/.425 Winn
.285/.335/.445 Renteria
.300/.370/.470 Lewis
.285/.315/.445 Molina
.300/.335/.480 Sandoval
.285/.345/.455 Rowand
.275/.345/.480 Ishikawa
.290/.360/.360 Burris
2.70 Lincecum
3.15 Cain
3.55 Johnson
3.70 Sanchez
4.55 Zito
3.05 Wilson
I nominate you for the position of Official McCovey Chronicles Optimist
Wall-E for Best Picture 2008
by Useful_Idiot on Mar 27, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait, you want my optimistic projection?
by Dan from NM on Mar 27, 2009 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions
.370 not unrealistic
A .370 OBP from Fred Lewis if he hits .300 isn’t unrealistic. That he will hit .300 probably is.
OK
well then what I said still makes sense…I don’t think he’ll get a .370 OBP, ergo I don’t think he’ll hit .300
I too think its not as crazy to consider as last year
But on what planet can a team with Molina batting cleanup can expect to win, place, or show? Even if Sandoval hits like Kong Kingman he’ll make a total of one power hitter on this squad. I am almost afraid now that if he does continue his bashing ways that he’ll soon be totally pitched around a la Bonds in his last year here.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
my crazy dream combination?
that’s easy, the giants score 4 runs a game and the pitching staff pitches like their supposed to.
"It aint over till the fat lady sings." - Not Yogi Berra
someone, anyone, gets 100+ rbi (sandoval, molina, lewis), wilson repeats his success of last year, cain or sanchez win 15 with sub 3.5 era, left side of the infield defense is adequate.
by shaolinironlion on Mar 27, 2009 9:21 PM PDT reply actions
About J Sanch
It’s not like he needs to improve. His FIP last year was 3.91, and if he just isn’t monstrously unlucky, we’ve already gotten a huge improvement there. If he cuts down on his walks, he could be really good. Better than Matt Cain was last year even.
Naturally Matt Cain won’t stand for this, and he’ll step up his game too (that how baseball works.) In my little fantasy world, Lincecum and Johnson both have ERA’s under 3, Cain has an ERA of 3.2, Sanchez has a 3.5 ERA, and Zito sits at a 4.25 ERA. And we still only win 84 games :(
If our rotation posted thos ERAs, I think we’d win more than 84 games
Wall-E for Best Picture 2008
by Useful_Idiot on Mar 28, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
i just lurk to be amazed by gems like this:
Like, huge Sandoval and Lewis likenesses covering my entire back. And one of them would be rocking out on a Flying V while the other one wrestled a wyvern with his bare hands.
groove.
Grant's premise
Grant made the premise that there was a 25% chance that Matt Cain would show tremendous improvement, a 25% chance that Aaron Rowand would have a substantial bounce-back year, a 25% chance that Pablo Sandoval hits .320 with power, and a 25% chance that Barry Zito is a league-average pitcher.
I might think some of those premises were a bit optimistic, but even if they are accurate, there is only a 1 1/2% chance of all four coming true. The Giants’ chances of making the playoffs are actually higher than that — although likely not nearly as high as the 10-15% predicted earlier.
so what's your number?
75 wins? 5%
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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If you don’t give them a 10% chance, that leaves over 90% to assign elsewhere in the division. Where are you going to assign that since someone has win the
I think a 1 in 10 (or 2 in 10) chance of making the post-season is fair if you think of it in terms of the division. Since there isn’t a is a clear favorite, I don’t think there any team that’s even a 50% shot at the playoffs. Off the top of my head, I’d probably do something like this:
Dodgers 35%
D’backs 35%
Giants 20%
Rockies 5%
Padres 5% (at most!)
The D’backs and Dodgers don’t seem twice as likely to win the Giants as the Giants in my mind.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
In my mind, they absolutely are at least twice as likely to win the NL West. And I’m not sure the Giants should be so much of a favorite over the Rockies.
I’d go:
Dodgers 45%
Dbacks 40%
Giants 7%
Rockies 6%
Padres 2%
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You’re not buying my “Positivity”? It’s supposed to be infectious!
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I’ve been rendered immune to Giants-related optimism by OGC. Blame him.
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if this is the case
Giants should trade Lincecum and Cain. Because they will never compete in the next 4 years.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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How does that follow?
Just because I don’t think they’ll be better than the Dodgers and Diamondbacks doesn’t mean I think they won’t be good next year or the year after, or even that they shouldn’t take this shot this year.
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if they have a 7% chance this year
they are not going to be an average team before Lincecum and Cain are gone. So may as well trade them.
7% is like a team you predict to go 72-90.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Last year’s Giants team did not have a 7% chance to make the playoffs. This year, I will give them a 29% chance to be an above .500 team, which I do not think will win the division. However, approximately 25% of the time, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will be such disasters that the Giants will be able to sneak in.
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What are you talking about?
Just because they have a 7% chance this year doesn’t mean that can’t jump to 20 or 30 or 40% next year. A couple players could make all the difference.
by bondslegend on Mar 31, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions
See I don’t think the Giants are almost 6 less likely than the D’back to win the division.
I’d take take the Giants and 6-to-1 odds head to head against the D’backs
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Right now, I would say that the Giants and DBacks rotations are about equal. The Giants are a little better, but it’s close. I’m not an expert on the DBacks bullpen, but I think ours is pretty shaky (There is no one in our bullpen that I trust. Wilson should be good, but I’ll have to see it to believe it). I’ll call that a draw too, because I am lazy.
So, the offenses. The Giants will not score more runs than Arizona.
Then I put that in my magic pull-numbers-out-of-jcb9’s-ass machine, and come up with: The Diamondbacks are 6 times more likely than the Giants to win the NL West.
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Reasonable
These numbers look fairly reasonable to me, with the exception that I would probably make the Diamondbacks the favorites despite their questionable pitching.
Here's hoping
that Dan Haren is lights-out dominant this year.
/has him in fantasy
by bondslegend on Mar 31, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
That’s because I pulled those four from my nether regions. If those were the only conditions for the Giants’ run, it would be a 1.5% chance, but obviously there are other factors. My point could have been more clear, to be sure.
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 30, 2009 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Digging it
I’m really digging this pulling from the nether regions. Is one of those regions the Netherlands?
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