Project-a-Prospect 2009: Buster Posey

Everyone in the rotation and the starting lineup has a community projection now. I’m missing Brian Wilson’s, so here’s a quick one:

Brian Wilson

ERA: between 1.50 and 5.00
IP: like, 60, unless he’s hurt
S: a bunch, unless he’s hurt
K: a bunch, unless he’s hurt
BB: a bunch

With the community projections out of the way, it’s time for…wait, what’s wrong? Don’t look so crestfallen! You already miss the community projection series? I can understand that. It’s a pretty compelling batch of posts. In fact, I’m negotiating with Dreamworks to turn the series into a feature-length film. I can’t kill the series now.

The last ones, though, won’t be for players like Bobby Howry or Steve Holm, as exciting as those might be. The Giants have four prospects who probably rank among the top 100, if not top-50, prospects in baseball. If the big league club goes 70-92 again, the season might still be considered a success if these four prospects do well, so let’s take a crack at predicting the big four.

Rules:

  1. Anyone predicting harm/injury will be banned. Go cut yourself somewhere else, emo Giants fan.

Other than that, have at it. Up first is the winner of the coveted Grant’s top Giants prospect-award, which is like the Golden Spikes but better. Buster Posey impresses the hell out of everyone who gets within a square mile of him. I can’t wait for his full-season debut.

What should we expect from him? Some scouts don’t think he’ll hit for much power, likening him to Jason Kendall, who was already in the majors at Posey’s age. If that comparison makes you grimace, note that if Posey’s first five seasons go as well as Kendall’s (minus the horrific injury), we’ll soil ourselves with excitement. Even though Posey’s slugging .750 this spring, and even though he hit 26 homers for Florida State, it might be wise to project his power with caution.

But that isn’t fun. Projecting with wild abandon is where it’s at. Let’s see, if Posey hit .463/.566/.879 with Florida State, we’ll assume that he can’t keep that production up. We’ll have to adjust his numbers down for every level he moves up. Like this:

A: .402/.535/.801
AA: .397/.534/.756
AAA: .385/.532/.698
Majors: .377/.510/.657

See? That’s reasonable. The numbers go down a little the closer he gets to the majors. That’s what usually happens. I don’t see anything wrong with those predictions.

Just in case, though, here’s a tempered set:

Buster Posey

San Jose: 211 AB, 10 HR, .330/.420/.539
Connecticut: 299 AB, 4 HR, .310/.390/.398
Fresno: just a handful of at-bats roster
Giants: N/A

I’d be thrilled with that season, obviously. I’d be thrilled with it even without the overly optimistic power projection. Open Buster Posey Projection Thread.

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