Our Optimal Lineup

by Franchise55 on Mar 19, 2009 9:50 PM PDT Comment 37 comments

Sky Kalkman over at Beyond the Boxscore has an interesting couple of articles on how to get the most out of your everyday line-up Via Tom Tango.

Please feel free to follow the links but for those of you refuse here is a quote that gets to the heart of the issue.

Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

An interesting concept in and of itself but coupled with the breaking news from earlier today and it seems we have the recipe for a fan-post. So without furthur ado I give you the optimal line-up for the 2009 SF Giants.

Ok maybe a little more ado. Before we get to the final product lets take a look at how Chone projects our offense based on runs created above average per 150 games.

Here are the numbers from best to worst for the 8 projected starters (giving Frandsen the nod)....

AVG	OBP	SLG	R150

Winn -

0.281

0.341

0.412

-5

Lewis -

0.262

0.346

0.404

-5

Rowand -

0.273

0.338

0.421

-7

Renteria -

0.283

0.345

0.408

-7

Frandsen -

0.288

0.343

0.411

-7

Ishikawa -

0.248

0.322

0.432

-9

Molina -

0.276

0.314

0.435

-10

Sandoval -

0.283

0.315

0.426

-12

Sorry about the formatting I dont really know what I'm doing.

So according to Tango and Kalkman (whom I am basically copying with this fanpost) we would want our best 3 hitters in the #1, #2, and #4 spots. With the highest OBP at the top and the power towards the middle.

So for our lead-off spot it really is a toss up between Lewis and Winn. Either would do nicely but I tend to buy into the hype and think that Lewis will hit for more power. So I'm going with Winn here.

Next we take our "best" remaining hitters and place them in the #2 and #4 spots based on projected OBP (#2) and SLG (#4). That to me says Lewis and Rowand respectively.

So far we have Winn, Lewis, XXX, Rowand. For the #3 and #5 spots we want the better hitter in the 5-hole with the player most reliant upon homeruns in the #3 spot. I'm going with Frandsen 3rd and Renteria 5th.

Placing the following 3 hitters in order of ability we end up with Ishikawa, Molina, Sandoval.

So the final product looks something like this.

Winn
Lewis
Frandsen
Rowand
Renteria
Ishikawa
Molina
Sandoval
Pitcher

Alright I have to stop here and say two things. First, I will admit that I havent had the most realistic outlook concerning this years offense. But I had no idea it was gonna be this bad. That line-up optimized to the max still looks like a steaming pile.

Secondly, are we putting too much stock into Pablo's ability to save us. I know the dude can hit bad balls but I am starting to wonder how much of an impact he is really going to make if he cant keep his BA high.

Anywho, here it is. I hope you find it interesting and thought provoking. Let me hear what you think.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Interesting. As a kid I’d always wanted to put my best hitter third because that’s where Will Clark hit. But I’m not as hung up on batting orders as I used to be.

by Dan from NM on Mar 19, 2009 9:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

But what’s sad about this is that the difference between our “least-optimized” lineup and our “most-optimized” lineup isn’t that huge.

Still, you gotta get all the runs you can get, right?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

by baetown415 on Mar 19, 2009 10:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

For Sure

Apparently the difference between an optimized and un-optimized line-up is about 1 win per year but with the way things look to shake out in the NL West 1 win could make all the difference.

by Franchise55 on Mar 19, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think The BOOK had the value at ~5-15 runs (~ 0.5 and 1.5 wins)

But I also think the hitters used in the lineup optimization chapter had greater disparities in hitting talent than the 2009 San Francisco Giants have.

Basically what I’m saying is that if the Bochy trots out something like Winn, Edgar, Fred, Bengie, Pablo, Rowand, Ishikawa, Frandsen, pitcher, the difference between that lineup and our most-optimized lineup likely won’t even be ten runs.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

by baetown415 on Mar 19, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

That was one of the other things that stuck out to me. I mean could our line-up consist of more similar skillsets. I think not.

by Franchise55 on Mar 19, 2009 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't that range

for worst lineups including stuff like Pitcher leading off, … huh, I was trying to guess the Giants second worst hitter I have no idea who it is? Prollly 2B du jure. Wow, that is a lineup o’ mediocrity.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Mar 20, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

That range is when you bat the pitcher 4th and your best hitter 9th or something like that.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

by baetown415 on Mar 20, 2009 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you want to swap Ishikawa and Frandsen and then drop Frandsen down to 9th (remember, pitcher bats 8th in this model). Ishi would be the homer heavy guy. I also have serious doubts about Frandsen’s projection, he’s never walked that much. If he outhits Bengie and Pablo, I’ll be shocked. So, something like this I would think:

   1. Winn
   2. Lewis
   3. Ishikawa
   4. Rowand
   5. Renteria
   6. Sandoval
   7. Molina
   8. Pitcher
   9. Frandsen

I guess you could switch Molina and Sandoval back to the order you had them in, but I think they are pretty similar hitters and you might as well have the faster guy batting first.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 19, 2009 10:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

just wondering

Why Chone? I have a hard time believing frandsen should hit third with ishi/molina/sandoval 7-8-9. I like the idea with the general lineup formula, but I’m just not so sure about who we are calling our best hitters (and Frandsen being the more homer-reliant hitter? I’m guessing someone else would fit better there)

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Mar 19, 2009 11:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I used Chone because that is what Kalkman used and while I am interested in, I am not particularly adept at stastical analysis just yet. As far as Frandsen goes the idea is that you put your fourth and fifth best hitters 5th and 3rd while putting the batter more reliant upon homeruns for his value 3rd. The choice was between Frandsen and Renteria and Frandsen seems to get more value from HRs than Renteria who is more of a BA and OBP guy.

Of course as discussed above this works best with a line-up full of players with different skill sets. Admittedly, Frandsen and Renteria, and Rowand, and Winn, and Lewis, are all pretty much interchangeable.

by Franchise55 on Mar 20, 2009 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

okay...

I guess my real issue is that I don’t believe frandsen will out-hit molina or sandoval.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Mar 20, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thought it would be interesting

to throw caution to the wind and put the line-up together based on the principals above but throwing out the Chone projections.

I would proably go

Winn
Lewis
Molina
Sandoval
Rowand
Renteria
Ishikawa
Frandsen

Darn, still sucks.

by Franchise55 on Mar 20, 2009 12:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No Molinia in #3. The #3 hitter has a lot of chances to GiDP. Tango covers it well in the book.
Another tidbit the best way to leverage speed, if lacking power (hello ’07 and on
Giants) is place a single hitter behind them. So the Giants need one of Renteria, Pablo, Rowand etc to decent OBP or wOBA so they can keep Molinia out of the #3 spot. If 2 of the other group can produce decently #5 is ideal for Molinia because it is the prime spot with the second fewest chances to GiDP out of 1-6 spots. And there is not enough booze and blow in the world to make me consider moving him the #1 the spot with the least GiDP posiblities.

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Mar 20, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there any statistical basis for having Molina bat #5 solely to prevent him from clogging the bases for Fred & Pablo?

It would seem logical to have Molina bat behind them—whether #4 or #5—since they project to have the best OBP in the lineup, thus giving Molina more opportunity to be “clutch” with RISP. This would also be good because you could tell Molina that it’s actually a promotion because he can get more RBI this way.

by kazuokev on Mar 20, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it is table #59. He talks about a player named Rim Jice just to flesh out the numbers for those of us less stats adept (like me).

Surprises for me on that table, for the NL, were #3 hittters have almost a 1/5 again as many chances to GiDP as the league average and how few of chances #2 hitter had. I really expected the #2 spot to have more than the additional 5-6% over league average. Spot #5 & #6 were a 1-2 percentage points fewer opportunities then #2. This is going off memory.

When I get home tonight I’ll try and remember to post just the NL values spots 1-6.

As an aside if you like nuts and bolts baseball talk The Book by Tango,Litchman & Dolphin does a very good job of presenting their numbers in such a fashion. If you haven’t read it should land on your reading list at some point.

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Mar 20, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eeogh, Rim Jice? All I can think of now is that Jim Rice is also a dirty sounding combination of words and/or sounds. I never wan to be JimRiced or RimJiced. Ever.

"Oh, you're Lisa Stevens from Wells Fargo Bank."

by Rorealis on Mar 23, 2009 3:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Oh, you're Lisa Stevens from Wells Fargo Bank."

by Rorealis on Mar 23, 2009 3:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting in theory… and i realize you were just going based on the chone projections… but I have to say, any prediction of an “optimal” lineup that has pablo hitting eighth just seems rather silly to me. Just based on what we’ve seen in ST and at the end of last year alone, Pablo should definitely be hitting somewhere between 2-6.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Mar 20, 2009 12:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think they are suggesting #8 because a pitcher can’t really pitch around him and he has pretty good speed so if he is on first and #9 moves him to 2nd base Pablo could score on a single by the #1 or #2 hitters. Add to that Sandoval is still unproven (a.k.a Small Sample Sized in stat speak). Should Sandoval prove out then down the road I can truly see him as a hart of the order type.

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Mar 20, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you’re saying that according to these stats, Bengie Molina and Pablo Sandoval are the two worst hitters in our lineup? Is there anybody in the Giants’ organization or fan base that would agree with this? Did Mark Twain make that comment about “lies, damn lies, and statistics,” after examining the Giants’ Chones projections?

Brian Sabean: continuing to monitor the CC and Manny situations

by rxmeister on Mar 20, 2009 5:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

STATS BIAS

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Mar 20, 2009 5:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

son, comments like that are why mom and I don’t let you out of the basement!

Brian Sabean: continuing to monitor the CC and Manny situations

by rxmeister on Mar 20, 2009 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why do I have an sudden urge the see The People Under The Stairs?

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Mar 20, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

On A Warm San Francisco Night
Yo, rocking shows for you and your crew

New to McCovey Chronicles? Check out the McFAQs! McFAQ I & II
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by Natto on Mar 20, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

don’t worry. He’s treated well down there. It’s not like that Austrian maniac with his poor daughter.

Brian Sabean: continuing to monitor the CC and Manny situations

by rxmeister on Mar 20, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

New to McCovey Chronicles? Check out the McFAQs! McFAQ I & II
comics | art | Nattowear

by Natto on Mar 20, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, it’s certainly an interesting topic. To begin with, I disagree with these Chone projections. I think Lewis will exceed .262, and I think Ishikawa will exceed .248. Frandsen is probably a few ticks too high for me, and I’m a huge fan of his. I think Molina will break .280, but I admit to being fearful of the inevitable decline. And I don’t think Renteria will hit .283.

My preference:
CF-Winn
2B-Frandsen
LF-Lewis
C-Molina
3B-Sandoval
RF-Schierholtz
1B-Ishikawa
SS-Renteria

But, since Sabean actually signed Rowand and won’t admit his mistake, I’ll allow:

RF-WInn
2B-Frandsen
LF-Lewis
C-Molina
3B-Sandoval
CF-Rowand
1B-Ishikawa
SS-Renteria

If I could just get back to the island and turn the wheel, I could get out of this lousy timeline, and get back to the one where Sabean was fired in 2005.

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.

by Lyle on Mar 20, 2009 6:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

hey

not all that different from the lineup i saved on my profile page in December
I really think we need to split lineups v. rhp and lhp

by BigO on Mar 20, 2009 8:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it's more like:

by zenbitz on Mar 20, 2009 9:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

oops

MORE LIKE

RF- Deckchair
CF- Deckchair
LF- Deckchair
SS- Deckchair
3B- Deckchair
2B- Deckchair
1B- Deckchair
C – Deckchair

by zenbitz on Mar 20, 2009 9:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I chose the deck chair that isn’t rotted all the way through yet!

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Mar 20, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Switch your 2 and 3 hitters, and we might be talking.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Mar 24, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmmmm

I Forsee:

Winn
Renteria
Lewis
Molina
Sandoval
Rowand
Ishikawa
Frandsen

He will bat Renteria in the top because he’s a big investment and has little power. However, many of our position players enter into this category.

by Giant Voodoo on Mar 20, 2009 10:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Considering Renteria is projected to have between .339 -.345 OBP he should be at the top of our line up. Only Winn, Lewis, Pablo and Burriss posted a better rate with more than 100 P.A.’s last year.
The last 2 have Extreme Sample Size alerts on them for at least the first few weeks of the’09 season

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Mar 20, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

I think it’s both the money spent and the projected OBP that will land him a top spot for the year. I only really see him dropped to 6th if he completely fails and flails.

by Giant Voodoo on Mar 20, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I tried to figure this out taking lh/rh splits into consideration, but it’s really messed up. Essentially, if we follow the Book, our batting order should be almost completely different depending on handedness of the hurler.

Here was my best try:

1. Winn
2. Lewis
3. Ishikawa
4. Rowand
5. Sandoval
6. Frandsen
7. Molina
8. Renteria

then… switch TI and Renteria when a lefty goes
aah, might as well leave it to BigHead

by BigO on Mar 20, 2009 9:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

lineupbation

Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™

by S.F. Giangst on Mar 22, 2009 4:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs