Community Projection: Aaron Rowand
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 17, 2009 12:48 PM PDT
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PrintOne of the most irritating things about being a Giants fan right now is that we’re guilty by association. Guilty of thinking stupid things, that is. For example, typing something like this:
…might provoke a response like this …
The Rowand signing made no sense, but that doesn’t mean that it was destined to be a total disaster. Did anyone expect Rowand to repeat his 2004 (.310/.361/.544, 24 HR) or 2007 (.309/.374/.515, 27 HR)? I doubt it. Those seasons both came in parks that were slightly favorable to hitters (park factors of 104), and his 2005 and 2006 were as meh as the aforementioned seasons were spectacular, so his inconsistency wasn’t a secret. But it wasn’t unreasonable to think Rowand would split the difference, at least for the first couple of years of his contract.
I know it’s horrible math just to add up his OPS+ from 2004-2007 and divide by four, but the 108 OPS+ that’s spit out by doing that is pretty close to what I was expecting from Rowand – essentially the season that Matt Kemp had last year (.290/.340/.459, 18 HR, with above-average defense.) That player would have been worth the contract in last year’s market, at least in the short term. The length of the contract was a little silly, but like Zito, I at least had some optimism when it came to the early returns.
The offense wasn’t there, though it seems worse because Rowand’s wretched .242/.309/.356 second half probably clouds our judgment a bit. It was painful to watch. What bothered me more than the offensive sputtering was the lackluster defense. He wasn’t a hippo with shin splints out there, but he wasn’t the rangy wunderkind that we were told to expect. The stats agreed with my eyes, but the numbers also hinted that last year was a bit of an anomaly. Or, you know, a brutal age-related decline, but I’m trying to ignore that possibility.
For 2009, and 2009 only, I’m going to think happy thoughts about Rowand’s performance in the field and at the plate. That doesn’t mean that the contract makes sense, but it means that I can still hope for those short-term benefits mentioned up there. You know, like Zito last year.
The projection systems from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus:
CHONE: .273/.338/.421, 14 HR
ZiPS: .278/.346/.420, 13 HR
PECOTA: .275/.336/.444, 14 HR
Not a bad player, especially if he can play a better center. He’ll never be worth $12M, obviously, but I’m a little more optimistic than the above projections.
Aaron Rowand
AB: 560
AVG: .286
OBP: .341
SLG: 457
HR: 17
Defense: average
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AB: 575
AVG: .261
OBP: .328
SLG: 412
HR: 13
Defense: Candy Maldonado
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 17, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions
I know it’s horrible math just to add up his OPS+ from 2004-2007 and divide by four, but the 108 OPS+ that’s spit out
Actually this is pretty reasonable to do. I think the whole “boom and bust” cycle of Rowand is just flukeyness due to high variance batting average. He just happened to have split out into seasons. If you take “half seasons” and randomize it, you get 108. I would add one for obvious reasons and predict an OPS+ of 109.
Some one with more time than me can back convert that back to / stats + HR.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
It’s not just batting average — his home run rate was way up in his good years too. My hunch is that it’s recurrent injuries that drag him down in his bad years.
HR/PA or HR/FB or HR/H?
Well his ISO is way up… I don’t have a intuitive grasp of the variance of ISO, or how it typically correlates with BA (for a given player)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
AB: 557
AVG: .281
OBP: .344
SLG: 438
HR: 16
Defense: Above average
Keeping on SWOOPing in the free world! Also, by the reflexive property of the rubber/glue playground comeback, I enjoy wearing hats on my ass.
by SneakToBetterSeats on Mar 17, 2009 1:21 PM PDT reply actions
hate hate hate
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Mar 17, 2009 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Needs more Ashy Larry.
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 17, 2009 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Boy, you’re drier than Kunta Kinte’s ankles.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Mar 17, 2009 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions
What does LeBron have to do with this?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Mar 18, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
My suspicion is that Rowand is a below-average player who had a couple of flukey seasons and got a silly contract because of that and because his reputation is the exact opposite of BLB’s. Unfortunately, with his contract he’ll be in the lineup for some time to come.
AB: 575
AVG: .265
OBP: .329
SLG: .407
HR: 11
Defense: Gamey. But he gets gold glove votes because of an extremely gritty play where he manages to successfully catch a laser-beam line drive with his teeth. He’s toothless afterwards and has at least three concussions, but refuses to take a day off. His OPS for the following month is .530. Bruce Jenkins loves it.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
AB: 550
AVG: .290
OBP: .340
SLG: 440
HR: 18
Defense: slightly above average
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
AB: 515
AVG: .262
OBP: .321
SLG: .405
HR: 9
Defense: Only slightly better than Velez’s.
Proud supporter of the Fightin' Hydrants.
by Little Napoleon on Mar 17, 2009 1:30 PM PDT reply actions
A hippo with shin splints
Elvis Aaron Rowand: he is who we thought he was – but not who Brian Sabean thought he was.
AB: 520 (I’d prefer fewer)
AVG: .272
OBP: .333
SLG: 412
HR: 14
Defense: Your Honor, my client cannot be held responsible for these accusations, in light of the established fact that he is a ἱπποπόταμος who suffers from medial tibial syndrome.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
props for the greek
+1
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Mar 17, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Mr. Nasty Shit
AB: 550
Avg: .274
OBP: .324
SLG: .438
HR: 16
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 17, 2009 2:09 PM PDT reply actions
Relative to Willie “looks like I got shit smeared under my nose” Mcgee
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 17, 2009 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I couldn’t predict Rowand to save my life. So I won’t.
Oh, you’re dying to know what I think Rowand is going to do this year? Well, you flatter me! Well then, here goes…
AB: 532
AVG: .285
OBP: .324
SLG: .450
HR: 15
Defense: Passable sometimes, infuriating other times.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
AB: 535
AVG: .268
OBP: .325
SLG: .410
HR: 13
Defense: I’d rather hand-deliver bonus checks to AIG executives than watch another season of opposing runners tagging up from third and easily scoring on fly balls to shallow center.
My plans for 2009: getting married and attending Tim Lincecum Bobblehead Day.
Optimisitc
I think Rowand will bounce back. Not that I have tons of evidence.
ABs: 490 (Because he’ll get more rest this year)
Avg: 285
OBP: 345
SLG: 440
HRs: 18
Defense: Much Improved, with only 2 cut-off men overthrown
Nasty shits taken: 0
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
ABs: 490 (Because he’ll get more rest this year)
I really hope so. Especially if it’s a part of Nate getting a decent amount of playing time.
Not optimistic
I think his defense will bounce back a bit to average or so though. He will also get injured a few times.
AB: 490
AVG: .271
OBP: .329
SLG: 411
HR: 14
Defense: ok with some Errant Throwin’
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Someone needs to predict more than 20 home runs
PA: 550
AVG: .275
OBP: .350
SLG: .450
HR: 20
Defense: what jponry said ^
by positiveuphemism on Mar 17, 2009 3:00 PM PDT reply actions
Why couldn’t that person have been you?
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 17, 2009 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
The Rainman Projections For Aaron Rowand
AaronRowand———600-.341—-77.0——0—-540—40—15—0—5— 0—0—98—35—1—16-.278-.342-.435
PA/AB 600/540
BB/HBP 40/15
SH/SF 0/5
SB/CS 0/0
1B/2B/3B/HR 98/35/1/16
AVG/OBP/SLG .278/.342/.435
wOBA/wRC/UZR .341/77.0/0
Rally the swagger!!!
AB: 559
AVG: .282
OBP: .351
SLG: 447
HR: 19
Defense: Jim Edmunds, circa 2004 – average, but vastly over-rated.
So, uh, that’s the swagger prediction… Can I cry now?
Hector Sanchez: learning to play defense from older brother Jackson Williams.
Anyone that expected Rowand to anything near what he did the year before wasn’t looking at the past record and doesn’t understand the meaning of “Career Year”. They also clearly forgot that AT&T is a pitcher’s park and US Cell and Citizen’s definitely ARE NOT.
The hope was (or should have been) that you’re getting a premier Gold Glove (2007) performer who is going to hit in the 270’s with 13-20 HRs.
His fielding wasn’t was was expected last year, but he did play with bad ribs for most of the year. Anyone else remember his hot start before he got hurt?
Projection:
AB: 500
Avg: 270-280
OB: 330-340
Slug: 420
HRs: 15-17
well which one was it
He had 2, 2004 and 2007.
And no – no one “forgot” about the stupid parks, we adjust for them. Rowand had plenty of mediocre years in good hitting parks as well, which anyone who know if they bother to read the back of his baseball card while they were daydreaming in their “Speedy McQueen” bed.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Next community projection: more Rush references to get the comments up.
“There is unrest in the bullpen…”
“Barry Bonds created subdivisions in the locker room halls…”
“Today’s Tom O’Malley: mean, mean pride…”
Projecting "Scott"...
Because I refuse to share my name with him
PA: 470
AVG: .281
OBP: .340
SLG:. .430
HR: 15
Defense: better than last year but still slightly below average
Gamerstacity: sharp decline. Sorry Rowand, it’s bound to happen
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Your name is Errant?
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 17, 2009 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Off a Cliff
AB: 465
AVG: ..234
OBP: .295
SLG: .376
HR: 12
Defense: The best part of his game
Interesting that you have him falling off pretty significantly in every category, including SLG, but you have him only dropping off one home run in about 85 fewer at bats.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
Rowand’s just going to mess with us…
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Rowand's Power
The more he tries too hard to hit for power, the more his other numbers decline, I think. Rowand seems like one of the most likely Giants to experience an accelerating decline this year.
Well, okay, but I don’t really see him hitting homers at a faster rate AND losing 34 points of slugging percentage.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
AB: 490
AVG: .281
OBP: .319
SLG: .329
HR: 6
Defense: I am crazy for think that it might make sense to make Rowand RF and Winn CF?
Considering his lousy throwing arm, I don’t know that RF would be such a good fit.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
It’s not like Winn is Roberto Clemente out there.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Now with updates!
He’s a billion times more accurate than Rowand, though. Weaker arm, maybe, but he doesn’t miss the cutoff man every time like Scott does.
by The Double Deuce on Mar 18, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Ya and no one else is BLB either. So how is this relevant?
Winn just does what you are supposed to do with little waste of effort or motion. Really it’s remarkable when he isn’t smooth. Since we are talking about Ofers that are not a huge offensive presence being smooth in the field is extremely important.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Mar 18, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I didn’t mean that Winn is a bad player or anything, just that having a weak arm doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t play RF at AT&T.
Double Deuce’s accuracy point is a good one though.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Now with updates!
I Like Winn In RF
At AT&T RF is at least as important as CF and perhaps even more important. Winn has mastered AT&T’s RF and I think it would be a big mistake to swap him with Rowand.
by giantsrainman on Mar 17, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree GRM that a good defender in RF at Mays Field is very important.
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 17, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
RF @ AT&T is very tricky especially with caroms off the bricks.
Dwight plays that area very well. I’m having a hard time believing Vlad would have prospered in RF had he been brought to SF.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Mar 17, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
My previous adoptee was Todd Linden
AB: 550
AVG: .314
OBP: .361
SLG: .488
HR: 23
Defense: Wins a totally undeserved Gold Glove due to aforementioned career year and an inexplicable highlight collision with Rusty, the Tin Idiot From 2000.
Proud member of the Adopt-a-Giant program (Aaron Rowand)
So your adoption is the kiss of death?
Putting the “anti” in antinous….. How about antivous?
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
sounds good
The name wasn’t originally French, but I like the way you think.
Proud member of the Adopt-a-Giant program (Aaron Rowand)
AB: 540
AVG: .277
OBP: .332
SLG: .401
HR: 14
Defense: Walls begin to run through him.
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 17, 2009 7:38 PM PDT reply actions
He’s going to play in Soviet Russia?
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
Needs a bloody nose.
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 17, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Jackoff Smirnoff
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Mar 17, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Average will be up
AB: 545
AVG: .298
OBP: .345
SLG: .460
HR: 17
I think he will have a good year with a slightly better offensive team around him, and the pressure of the contract will be off him. Suited to the new park, I expect good numbers
by Michael Uhlhorn on Mar 17, 2009 10:27 PM PDT reply actions
AB: 435
AVG: .265
OBP: .318
SLG: .405
HR: 12
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Mar 18, 2009 4:47 AM PDT reply actions
330 OBP
405 SLG
UZR of -6 with plenty of extra 90 feet for opposition.
The key here is glove work. Scott is 6 spot or lower hitter tell farther notice in my book (Even on our smothered by a wet paper bag line up). I am fine with that if he can post a near 0 UZR in center.
If he can’t then he is corner field bound. That means Sabean is looking for another CF next off season (be afraid, be very afraid.) And we get to see what kind of choices Sabean makes between, Winn, Rowand, Nate and any other young corner outfielder that might pop up between now and next April from either the farm, waiver wires or trades.
Yes, I am begining to fear this signing more then the Zito signing.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
Yes, I am begining to fear this signing more then the Zito signing.
Look at it this way, Zito has another 5 years left on his contract. IF he stays in the rotation for all 5 years, you’ll essentually see 162 more starts of Barry. Imagine watching a whole season of nothing but his starts as the 85 mph fastball gets smashed into the bay. How many times would the Giants win over a full Zito season? 50? 40?
Now, doesn’t the Rowand contract not seem so bad? Feel better?
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
Res Dog you just described the bulk of the Giants starters in the 90’s. That was not that long ago that I forgot it. The thing is I can’t name a starting pitcher the Giants let go in the 90’s that was useful elsewhere beside Burkett. And we got a pretty good SS for 1 year of Burkett.
I can easily see the team not trying to signing a Holiday, or trying to trade a Cruz (TX) type because the already have Rowand. Or a revisit to A.J. trade to "get a tools guy to play center." Possibly with a side of blocked Bowker/Raptor Jesus/Roger.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Mar 18, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Re-sign Roberts?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Mar 18, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Sabean will get a head start
And sign Andruw Jones to a guaranteed deal.
I keed
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Perhaps go get Pierre? That loser Cain might be enough.
/cringes
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Mar 18, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
AB: 503
AVG: .291
OBP: .348
SLG: .477
HR: 17
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Now with updates!
Rowand
AB: 506
AVG: .283
OBP: .337
SLG: 451
HR: 11
Defense: meh
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
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