HOF & Historical WAR II
WAR, it ain't nothing but a heartbreaker. WAR, friend only to the... sabremetrician or at least the statistically inclined. As a follow-up to my wildly unpopular post of last week, here's another pass at ranking players of the "Retrosheet Era" (1955-2008), this time trying to quantify "dominance", for want of a better term.
The method to arrive at the table below:
- For each season, determine the average WAR for all players and the Standard Deviation of WAR produced (using StDevP in Excel as it deals with a whole population rather than a sample).
- For each player season, determine how many standard deviations above or below the mean each player was. (PlayerWAR - AvgWAR) / StDevP is the formula used. As an example, Joe Blow creates 5.5 WAR in a season where the average player produces .5 and the StDevP is 2.5 = a score of 2.0 for Joe.
- Sum the score of standard deviations for each player.
To repeat: As always with WAR the dataset is limited to 1955 and later seasons. Some players obviously got jobbed by this. I have not refined it by restricting the dataset to only players debuting in 1955 or later.
99 players in the list which includes all players with a score of 24 or more. Please pardon me for not marking it up for who's eligible for the Hall of Fame and who is not. Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich absolutely belong in the HOF by this method.
Orlando Cepeda and Brett Butler scored 23.8, again Johnnie LeMaster was the worst position player at -9.4 (same score as Kirk Rueter) and the ultimate destroyer of batting & fielding value was Greg Maddux (-18.5). If you want the score from any other player, speak up.
Comments on the methodology are also encouraged.
Bonds, Barry 93.5 Mays, Willie 78.1 Aaron, Hank 76.3 Henderson, Rickey 60.4 Schmidt, Mike 57.5 Robinson, Frank 57.0 Morgan, Joe 55.1 Mantle, Mickey 54.3 Rodriguez, Alex 50.0 Yastrzemski, Carl 48.8 Boggs, Wade 48.7 Kaline, Al 47.6 Ripken, Cal 46.6 Brett, George 45.2 Clemente, Roberto 45.1 Mathews, Eddie 44.5 Rose, Pete 42.5 Carew, Rod 41.6 Bagwell, Jeff 41.5 Griffey, Ken 41.2 Thomas, Frank 39.4 Molitor, Paul 38.7 Yount, Robin 38.3 Jones, Chipper 38.2 Pujols, Albert 36.8 Jackson, Reggie 36.7 Whitaker, Lou 36.3 Bench, Johnny 35.2 Grich, Bobby 35.2 Robinson, Brooks 35.1 Santo, Ron 34.9 Gwynn, Tony 34.7 Murray, Eddie 34.5 Larkin, Barry 34.2 Walker, Larry 34.0 Palmeiro, Rafael 33.9 Raines, Tim 33.9 Edmonds, Jim 33.7 Martinez, Edgar 33.7 Lofton, Kenny 33.6 Smith, Ozzie 33.1 McCovey, Willie 32.9 Rodriguez, Ivan 32.9 Smith, Reggie 32.8 Thome, Jim 32.8 Trammell, Alan 32.7 Allen, Dick 32.7 Ramirez, Manny 32.2 Williams, Billy 31.8 Fisk, Carlton 31.8 Carter, Gary 31.7 Alomar, Roberto 31.7 Hernandez, Keith 31.6 Biggio, Craig 31.4 McGwire, Mark 31.2 Evans, Dwight 31.0 Jeter, Derek 31.0 Bell, Buddy 30.8 Randolph, Willie 30.7 Banks, Ernie 30.5 Nettles, Graig 30.3 Davis, Willie 30.0 Sandberg, Ryne 29.9 Sheffield, Gary 29.8 Bando, Sal 29.7 Clark, Will 29.7 Boyer, Ken 29.7 Killebrew, Harmon 29.7 Wynn, Jimmy 29.2 Bonds, Bobby 29.2 Guerrero, Vladimir 29.1 Jones, Andruw 28.7 Rolen, Scott 28.6 Piazza, Mike 28.3 Evans, Darrell 28.1 Kent, Jeff 28.1 Winfield, Dave 28.0 Abreu, Bobby 27.8 Ventura, Robin 27.8 Stargell, Willie 27.8 Olerud, John 27.6 Torre, Joe 27.4 Sosa, Sammy 27.3 Cash, Norm 27.2 Helton, Todd 26.7 Giambi, Jason 26.3 Dawson, Andre 25.9 Beltran, Carlos 25.4 Aparicio, Luis 25.0 Clark, Jack 25.0 Cruz, Jose 24.9 Suzuki, Ichiro 24.7 Cedeno, Cesar 24.5 Pinson, Vada 24.3 Cey, Ron 24.2 Lemon, Chet 24.1 McGriff, Fred 24.1 Puckett, Kirby 24.1 Williams, Bernie 24.1
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24 comments
Comments
LeMaster is off the hook.
Doug Flynn, -10.9
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
by S.F. Giangst on Mar 17, 2009 8:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Also, just wondering, what’s Neifi’s score in this?
by xanthan on Mar 17, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Neifi’s score is -4.2, same as Julian Tavarez, Lee Smith, Shawn Chacon, Dick Drago, Mike Marshall, Butch Hobson and another two dozen mostly highly forgettable players. In terms of overall rank, the -4.2 group is in the low 4100’s out of 4747 players.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
by S.F. Giangst on Mar 17, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll never forget Shawn Chacon.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Mar 17, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We’ll always have (-2.6 Kelly) Paris.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
by S.F. Giangst on Mar 17, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was a Bobby Grich fan when I was about 8 or 9. I don’t know why. I think my dad told me he was pretty good or something…
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
by WTF on Mar 17, 2009 8:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Your Dad knew quality when he saw it. 125 OPS+ career, good hands and range at 2B.
The HOF seems to routinely underrate 2B and to a lesser degree SS.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
by S.F. Giangst on Mar 17, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I just knew a quality pornstache when I saw one…lol.
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
by WTF on Mar 17, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice work!
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
by haverecords on Mar 17, 2009 11:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like it
I would also be interested in seeing this done using rank percentiles. You could make a system where a player at the 50th percentile for a season is 0 points, the 99th percentile is 49 points, the 1st percentile is -49 points, etc. Such a system might be a little more kind to those players who were consistently a bit above average.
by Scottsdale on Mar 17, 2009 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I did think of doing something with percentiles but it looked to be a great deal more complicated. How many spreadsheets do you think my Mom will let me keep in her basement?
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
by S.F. Giangst on Mar 17, 2009 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting....
I, apparently, would draw the line at 31.7 and above.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
by Lyle on Mar 17, 2009 1:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Admit it, you just don’t like Keith Hernandez.
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 17, 2009 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I freely admit I despised Keith Hernandez, Ron Cey, & Darrell Evans on this list.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
by Lyle on Mar 18, 2009 5:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I always thought Darrell Evans was a pretty underrated player. Any reason you despise him?
by xanthan on Mar 18, 2009 5:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At the time, I thought he was overrated. A natural 1B, the Giants played him at 3B. He was, in a way, the Bengie Molina of his Giants era. Now imagine that every story we read in the papers (and remember, there is no internet) is how wonderful Bengie is, what a terrific hitter he is, what a great competitor he is to switch positions, and how often he escorts old ladies across the street.
Yes, he was the best hitter we had for a few years. That was mostly a sad thing, not a point of pride. He should have been traded much earlier than he was.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
by Lyle on Mar 19, 2009 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
B. Molina 2.0 (t-780)
Y. Molina 1.3 (t-860)
J. Molina -1.8 (t-2636)
I. Molina -2.0 (t-2810)
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
by S.F. Giangst on Mar 19, 2009 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm confused
Does this mean maddux is a bad fielder or am I interpreting that wrong?
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Mar 17, 2009 10:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Perpetually bad combination of batting and fielding skills for position players, perpetually bad hitting for pitchers.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
by S.F. Giangst on Mar 18, 2009 4:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That seems wrong. Maddux wasn’t a particularly awful hitter, as pitchers go; he just got more at-bats than anyone else. And of course he was a superb fielder.
by Evan on Mar 19, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems wrong, but it isn’t. The method is set up to measure the difference between Player X and a league-year average.
Being a pitcher in the NL for the whole career, being durable, going late into games and getting extra PA, doing that for numerous seasons for a club that’s likely to provide you with a big enough lead that you don’t get pulled for a pinch hitter when your arm has an inning or two left in it… All of those contribute, and there must be extra factors not listed as well.
But it doesn’t change the fact that for the number of PA used, the production was below league average season after season.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Mar 19, 2009 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m saying that this conclusion indicates that you need to tinker with the methodology. Johnnie LeMaster was in fact a terrible player; Greg Maddux wasn’t.
by Evan on Mar 20, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, I’ll maybe try to get another revision together. Call me a WARmonger.
But it is proper to say “According to some state of the art analysis off batting and fielding prowess, with an eye to league averages, over the course of his career Maddux sucked more and more often than any other player.”
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Mar 21, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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