Community Projection: Jonathan Sanchez
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 13, 2009 8:20 AM PDT
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PrintI think it was Earl Weaver who said, "The best thing to do with young pitchers is put them in the starting rotation, then put them in the bullpen, then put them back in the rotation, then put them back in the bullpen, and then put them in the rotation until they get hurt." Wait, maybe that wasn't Weaver. Branch Rickey? Tony LaRussa? Hmm. I can't remember. A collection of twisted minds within the Giants organization? Ah. Ding ding ding. That's the one. The way the Giants used Jonathan Sanchez makes sense if you think about it after a night of Robotussin manhattans.
Sanchez finally stuck in the rotation last year, dominating hitters through June before finishing with a higher ERA close to Barry Zito's. Still, the promise Sanchez showed was tantalizing. FanGraphs also figures that Sanchez was a little unlucky last year, and they also noted...
I'm guessing that Lincecum isn't on there because he threw a brazillion pitches to get his strikeouts. Still, that's some crazy company for Sanchez to keep. From April to June, it was easy to believe. Looking at the year-end stats, even accounting for the poor luck, it's hard to imagine a pitcher with a 5.00+ ERA could make hitters flail so wildly.
He went down in the middle of last season with a mystery shoulder injury, which is always splendid news for a young pitcher. He came back in September, mixed a couple of good starts with a couple of wretched ones, and rested for the winter. And by "rested," I mean "pitched a bunch of innings in winter leagues across the globe in preparation for pitching high-leverage innings for Puerto Rico's team." You know, exactly what we all hoped for.
So I'm not sure where to go with this projection. Systems from around the world wide net:
CHONE: 120 IP, 116 K, 55 BB, 4.05 ERA
ZiPS: 103 IP, 98 K, 53 BB, 4.28
PECOTA: 135 IP, 128 K, 59 BB, 4.25 ERA
It's worth noting that as yicky as the ZiPS projection is, the ERA still comes out to be below the league average. I wouldn't read too much into the innings pitched projections, as they're mostly based on the totals from previous seasons.
I don't think the breakout comes this year. But we're teased. Again. Dang it.
Jonathan Sanchez
IP: 178
ERA: 4.44
K: 172
BB: 79
HRA: 17
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IP: 180
ERA: 4.20
K: 163
BB: 90
HRA: 20
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 13, 2009 8:23 AM PDT reply actions
It is?
Please Jesus, don't let us be like the Cubs.
by SimpleJaquez on Mar 13, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
IP: 160
ERA: 4.33
K: 161
BB: 76
HRA: 16
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 13, 2009 8:30 AM PDT reply actions
I pretty much think this, but like round numbers
IP: 150
ERA: 4.00
K: 150
BB: 70
HRA: 16
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I like rounder numbers
IP 800
ERA: 0.00
K: 888
BB: 00
HRA: 0
Cy Young? Nope, because that would mean he’d have 1 Cy, and that’s not a round number. So he loses the Cy (to Lincecum, because then he’d have 2, and the top part of the 2 is at least curvy, which is almost as good as being round), so his total can remain at 0, which is a VERY round number.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
Round numbers
If Jonathan yields 70 walks and 16 homers in 150 innings, I think his ERA will be above 4.00. I personally think he will do better than that, which would likely mean fewer home runs and/or fewer walks.
150 innings is 16 2/3 nine-inning games. If Jonathan yielded a run and a half on average on the 16 homers, his ERA aside from the homers would need to be around 2.50, and with 70 walks, I don’t think that would happen. With 70 walks, the 1.5 runs per each of the 16 homers might be low, as well. If Jonathan limited the opposition to 130 hits in his 150 innings (a real possibility IMO), his WHIP would still be 1.33. And I suspect that a 1.33 WHIP will give up more than 2.50 runs per nine innings.
As an example, if we assume Tim Lincecum gave up 16 runs on the 11 homers he yielded, his non-home run ERA was 1.98 with a 1.17 WHIP. Is it realistic that with a 1.33 WHIP (which is being somewhat generous to Jonathan if he walks 70 batters), Jonathan can be as close to Tim as to generate only a 2.50 or so non-homer ERA?
Jonathan’s ERA this past season was 5.01, even though with 14 homers in 158 innings, he had a lower homer rate than you are projecting for him. I think Jonathan will indeed post an ERA of 4.00 or lower, but part of the reason I believe he will do so is because I think he can cut down on his home run rate — rather than having it increase slightly as you are projecting.
Jonathan might indeed be hard-pressed to improve substantially on his 8.4% home run to fly ball rate, but his ground ball to fly ball rate has improved from 0.80 in 2006 to 1.00 in 2007 to 1.10 last season.
Many think that Jonathan tired in the second half last season. His ERA nearly doubled from 3.79 in the season’s first three months to 7.24 in the last three months, even though Jonathan threw nearly twice as many innings (102) in the first three months as in the last three (56). Jonathan’s home run rate in the first three months was a good 0.74 homers per nine innings, while it grew to a so-so 0.96 the last three months.
If Jonathan could return to his first-half homer rate this season, he would give up 12 or 13 homers in his 150 innings in 2009.
You are correct, though, that if he remains at his second-half rate, he will yield 16 long balls in his 150 innings. But if that is the case, he will likely be hard-put to reduce his ERA to 4.00 after posting a 7.24 ERA with that home run rate in the second half of 2008.
Pro-rating Jonathan’s numbers of the first half of 2008 through 153 innings, he would strike out 153 batters, walk the 70 batters you projected, allow only 12 homers and give up just 135 hits.
In order to post a 4.00 ERA in 150 innings with 70 walks and 16 homers, Jonathan would likely need to limit his opponents to something on the order of only 120 hits in those 150 innings. That’s Tim Lincecum territory.
I think Jonathan Sanchez can be quite good. But I highly doubt he will become a left-handed Tim Lincecum. Madison Bumgarner? A better chance. And in a best-case scenario, Tim Alderson could become Matt Cain.
My best guess is that Matt Cain will become … Matt Cain. In fact, I’d bet on it.
How Do You Figure?
Doesn’t FIP = ((13(HR) + 3(BB) – 2(SO))/IP) + 3.2? Which in this case is ((13(16) + 3(70) – 2(150))/150) + 3.2 = ((208+210-300)/150) +3.2 = (118/150) + 3.2 = .79 + 3.2 = 3.99. This looks damm close to 4.00 to me.
t
by giantsrainman on Mar 13, 2009 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions
this math has yet to convince me that matt cain will become matt cain
by lincypoo i wuv u on Mar 14, 2009 1:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I understand; I just think you're wrong
Your math is correct, but if I may cast doubt on its result, allow me to say that Pedro’s FIP in 1999 was 0.31, while his ERA was over six times higher at 2.07.
There are indeed many factors that go into ERA (including luck), but let’s take a look at Tim Lincecum’s rookie season, when his ERA was precisely 4.00. Tim struck out 150 in 146 1/3 innings, he yielded 11 homers (or five fewer than the projection for Matt), he walked 65 (or five fewer than Matt’s projection). He yielded only 122 hits. And yet his ERA was still 4.00 (with an FIP of 3.63).
Matt’s career ERA has been 3.74 with a career FIP of 3.90. Even though his home run rate has been well below this projection and he has yielded just 7.70 hits per inning. Even his walk rate of 3.79 per nine innings has been much lower than the 4.20 per nine projected here for him in 2009. Only his strikeout rate of 9.00 per nine innings is better than his career mark of 7.67 per nine.
I personally think Matt’s ERA will be below 4.00 in 2009. But not at the home run and walk rates you project — unless he cuts back significantly on his career hit rate after just going through his worst season for hits per nine innings.
22 NL pitchers qualified with 162 or more innings and had an ERA below 4.00. Not a single one of them had both a home run rate and a walk rate as high as the projection for Matt for 2009. The closest was Oliver Perez at 4.22.
It certainly isn’t impossible that Mattt could post a 4.00 ERA with the other numbers, but it appears very unlikely.
You Have Matt Cain On The Brain But These Projections Are For Jonathan Sanchez
Perhaps this is the result of your reading and replying to lincypoo i wuv u. Therefore, most of your post is not relevent to this discussion.
That said it is pretty clear that you are not a believer in FIP. FIP assumes that a pitcher has very little control over the BABIP he allows and can really only control the SOs he gets and the HRs and BBs he allows. You may be correct that this is not true and pitchers may indeed have more control over BABIP then FIP allows for. But the mistake you make is to assume that the resulting errors in FIP are on the side of predicting too low of and ERA. I can assure you that this is not the case. FIP is designed so that the league average FIP in MLB in any given year is the same as the average ERA in MLB in any given year. The 3.2 adder used veries as needed for year to year to make sure this is the case.
by giantsrainman on Mar 15, 2009 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Like GRM said, the part about Matt Cain isn’t relevant, but I also don’t understand what you’re trying to say in the first two paragraphs. If you’re trying to prove that FIP isn’t useful, then looking at two seasons is a terrible way to prove that.
Also, Pedro’s FIP wasn’t 0.31 in 1999, it was 1.39.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
You put a lot more thought into this projection thing than me. I pulled most of it out of jcb’s ass.
The only reason I thought El Guapo can get away with those walks and HRs and get to an ERA of 4.00:
- The improved bullpen will strand more inherited runners he leaves them as he tires
- His ability to strike mofos out will help him strand runners
- Bullet points are really cool
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Sanchez is primed for a performance breakout and is the most at risk starter for an injury.
I can’t really make a projection that I believe in for him.
I'm spent, just can't rosterbate anymore.
Grow a pair!
Just pick either a break-out season or an injury-shortened one and barf up some numbers. It’s not like you have any credibility on the line here.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Forgotten
I think they merely forgot to list Tim. The last time I saw numbers last season, Tim had swing-through rates above 40% on each of his three secondary pitches. His fastball was at something like 14%.
The percentages I’m listing are on pitches swung at. Since many pitches are taken for either balls or strikes, these percentages are much higher than the percentage of swing-throughs on ALL pitches. Still, I think it is clear that Tim ranks rather highly here.
It is indeed intriguing that Jonathan ranks above Matt Cain, however, which contributes to my belief that Jonathan’s ceiling may be even higher than Matt’s.
If he remains healthy, I do think this is the season Jonathan breaks out. I certainly picked the right breakout guy last season. :)
Lowest Contact %, min 100 IP
1. Rich Harden - – -
2. CC Sabathia - – -
3. Joba Chamberlain Yankees
4. Edinson Volquez Reds
5. Tim Lincecum Giants
6. Carlos Villanueva Brewers
7. Ryan Dempster Cubs
8. Sott Kazmir Rays
9. Jonathan Sanchez Giants
10. Chad Billingsley Dodgers
11. A.J. Burnett Blue Jays
12. Jorge de la Rosa Rockies
13. Jake Peavy Padres
14. Cole Hamels Phillies
15. Johnny Cueto Reds
I'm spent, just can't rosterbate anymore.
IP: 186
ERA: 4.27
K: 175
BB: 73
HRA: 19
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Mar 13, 2009 9:07 AM PDT reply actions
My one, sad prediction
Johnson pitches more innings than Sanchez.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
All those innings catch up to him
IP: 36 1/3
ERA: 5.36
K: 18
BB: 21
He will be on the DL for most of the year.
IP: 160
ERA: 4.30
K: 150
BB: 65
HRA: 20
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
I also hate America, freedom, puppies, and rainbows.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
But you do like those freedom fries!
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Mar 13, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Well that’s true, but only because my Italian heritage doesn’t allow me to like anything French.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
How many gears does a French tank have?
4 reverse and 1 forward in case the enemy attacks from the rear
actually
problem with french tanks in WWII is that they forgot radios
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
another optimistic prediction....
IP: 185
ERA: 3.52
K: 195
BB: 65
HRA: 14
Someone get Damon Minor's agent on the phone stat!
Adopted Father of Luis Perdomo
by fanofvanlandingham on Mar 13, 2009 10:25 AM PDT reply actions
IP: 180
ERA: 4.23
K: 160
BB: 45
HRA: 17
Proud supporter of the Fightin' Hydrants.
by Little Napoleon on Mar 13, 2009 10:41 AM PDT reply actions
IP: 160
ERA: 4.50
K: 160
BB: 70
HRA: 12
by microwave donut on Mar 13, 2009 10:46 AM PDT reply actions
I think he breaks out...
then the innings catch up to him and he gets hurt.
IP: 125
ERA: 4.12
K: 105
BB: 56
HRA: 10
W-L: 8-4
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Mar 13, 2009 11:29 AM PDT reply actions
I think he breaks out...
…but it leads to a huge endorsement deal with Valtrex
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
that would still be a better endorsement deal than the one offered to his fellow countryman Edgar Martinez. The former Mariners DH was offered a Viagra endorsement however Martinez wife asked him to politely decline.
Back to Jonathan Sanchez. El Guapo did not participate in any winter league this offseason. In January he arrived in Phoenix to prep for the WBC. Sanchez has thrown less pitches than his replacement Joe Martinez and has NOT been overworked this spring.
Sanchez has stated his goal this season is to pitch 200 innings. In preparation of that workload Sanchez altered his offseason workout regiment and looks larger in the legs. The best accomplishment for Sanchez this spring is that he has only yield ONE walk in 10 innings.
Cy Young or bust.
Don't say that
You really don’t want to say Cy Young or bust — unless you’re talking 36D.
Jonathan Sanchez
I think this is the year he establishes himself. Noah who? I have idea who you’re talking about…
IP: 166 (I can see one precautionary stint on the DL)
ERA: 4.03
K: 170
BB: 65
HRA: 17
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
If Sanchez pitched for the Yankees do you think there would be endless amounts of stupid “should he be starting of pitching out of the bullpen?!?!?!?!?” debate?
by FluLikeSymptoms on Mar 13, 2009 2:27 PM PDT reply actions
FIP-meister
Sanchez was 19th in the NL last year (starters) with a FIP of 3.85. He was 35th if you include the AL. He was ahead of Matt Cain (21st and 39th)!
I think he will give us 200 IP and 180 K and be fipping awesome!!
Todos somos Gigantes
The Rainman Projections For Jonathan Sanchez
GS 26
Innings 162
FIP 4.00
SO 150
BB 74
HR 16
I don't know
But I’ll take a shot at it:
IP: 148
ERA: 4.36
SO: 140
BB: 69
HRA: 17
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
IP: 172
ERA: 4.10
SO: 153
BB: 62
HRA: 18
Adopted Giant: Clayton Tanner (unless someone tells me he's already been adopted)
"He [Frandsen] had 4 strikesses per three innings his twenty year, then dropped to an cool 1th. But Burriss essentially skipped over AA and AAA after compiling a . But doctrines arrive forever as they say so I'm sure fans of the Philadelphia Phillies and the Detroit Tigers, if given a chance, would trade a down year in 2008 for a World Series title in 2007. 285/.347/." -sfgiantstoday
by walkoff baltimore chop on Mar 13, 2009 7:24 PM PDT reply actions
The LincyPoo Projections For Jonathon Sanchez Prediction Post Thing
IP: 170
ERA: 3.97
K: 174
BB: 79
HRA: 15
W-L: 10-11
by lincypoo i wuv u on Mar 14, 2009 2:02 AM PDT reply actions
Sanchez
IP: 182
ERA: 4.04
K: 173
BB: 74
HRA: 17
co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.
IP: 188
ERA: 3.90
K: 182
BB: 84
HRA: 16
W-L: 13-7
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Mar 14, 2009 12:24 PM PDT reply actions
IP: 80.7
ERA: 4.13
K: 45
BB: 39
HRA: 10
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
IP: 155
ERA: 3.87
K: 161
BB: 70
HRA: 15
Maybe a missed start or two but no time on the DL.
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 15, 2009 3:05 PM PDT reply actions
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