Community Projection: Randy Winn
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 12, 2009 12:15 PM PDT
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PrintRandy Winn is a, uh, baseball player. I mean, he plays for the San Francisco Giants. He plays right field. He, uh, seems like a nice guy.
Alright, you try and write something new and interesting about Randy Winn. He's like a nice pair of freshly ironed slacks. Useful. Better than a pair of wrinkled slacks. Nothing that's going to inspire a Tony-winning musical. But useful. Every team should want a couple of Randy Winns. He switch-hits, has speed, and can play all three outfield positions. Combine all of that with an above-average bat and great defense, and he's better than useful. As they say on the streets, he's danged useful.
It's hard to fully embrace Winn, though, because he represents two different things. On one hand, he's a productive, likable player who plays hard. On the other, he's been the best or second-best hitter on the team for two straight years, and that's unacceptable. A guy like Winn should be a working part of a good lineup, not a featured performer. It's not Winn's fault that he's a #3-hitter any more than it's Bengie Molina's fault for hitting cleanup. As a leadoff hitter, Winn is a little better cast than he was last year, even if he isn't a walking machine.
I'd like to think that in an normal offseason, teams would have been fighting to trade for Randy Winn. If a team close to short-term contention like the Braves wanted a quality outfielder, but they didn't want to get locked into a three- or four-year deal, Winn would have been a nice solution. Except that this offseason started with the government bailing the Farrelly brothers out of jail, and then the economy tanked. Or something. I don't really follow the news. But when Bobby Abreu signs a one-year deal for half of Winn's salary, there probably isn't a huge market for a full price Randy Winn. There's no sense in eating money when the player is still a significant contributor to the team.
It's pretty clear that the icky 2006 season was an outlier for Winn; other than that season, he's been a model of consistency. He isn't exactly young, though. Just because he'll turn 35 this year doesn't mean he'll fall apart, but it isn't outlandish to think that the best years are behind him. A survey of the projection systems:
The PECOTA projection is especially nice. I'm not convinced, though. I think there'll be a drop in performance, and though I'm not as pessimistic with Winn as I am with Molina, I don't think there's going to be a heck of a lot of talk about a contract extension.
Randy Winn
AB: 472
AVG: .272
OBP: 328
SLG: 401
HR: 7
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AB: 487
AVG: .269
OBP: 335
SLG: 412
HR: 9
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 12, 2009 12:20 PM PDT reply actions
Are you expecting him to get injured? I would think if anyone is a lock for 550+ AB’s on this team it would be Winn.
…and desperately trying to keep a straight face while they’re looking.
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
I’m predicting ticky-tack 35-year-old issues. Hamstrings, and whatnot.
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 12, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
The human side of things really is hard for you to understand, I know.
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 12, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
What about pie?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
’
Green pie?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Typical San Franciscan.
/inside joke lol
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 12, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
What about love?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Goofus principle.
The four OFs will be sharing playing time, so Rowand, Lewis, Winn and Schierholtz will all get approx. 450 ABs.
And Dave Roberts will get ZERO!
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I’m still not convinced that Bochy won’t find a way to work Roberts into some lineups this year for some ‘veteran savvy’.
by paboperfecto on Mar 12, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
His age made me think a stint on the DL would be likely. I think the JuggerNate will see the balance of time in RF.
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 12, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah yes the good ol’ trwfp’s, time to get three fake accounts and cook up half-baked schemes to get Miguel Cabrera (I figure we need a new foolish and out of the question target).
Question: would Winn, Taschner and Pucetas get it done?
Why does Sabean always look constipated?
by TexasRanger on Mar 12, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
through in Granderson and Rowand the deal is as good as done
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Mar 12, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
/hurriedly creates new fanpost
They ridicule Cain for Fielder huh? This one will show them, oh yes this one will show them all!!!!!!
Why does Sabean always look constipated?
by TexasRanger on Mar 12, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
randy Randy Winn?
Nah, not this season
PA: 540
AVG: .285
OBP: .342
SLG: .415
HR: 12
SB: 15/20
Defense: +5 in RF, +1 in CF (IN YO’ FACE MARTIN!!!)
Times getting hit in the face by Dave Roberts after hitting a walk-off single = 2. Don’t question it… it will happen
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
AB: 550
AVG: .290
OBP: .350
SLG: .450
HR: 15
Kind of a cop out, as I’m basically going with his career numbers plus a little power. At the end of this, I want to put my projections into one of them batting order run predictors and see how many runs my often ridiculous projections would score. Does anyone have a link to that thing? I can’t find it.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
I WILL BEAT YOU ONE DAY YOU MACHINE!!!
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
HAHHAHA
I love this fight scene. And fortunately, it wasn’t a Rush-roll either
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
It has some many best parts in it.
I love when he gets his eye poked out and starts punching blindly while going RAGGGGHHHHH
The last ~20 seconds kills me every time.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Totally hilarious, under related videos
I think the guy’s supposed to be their version of Jackie Chan.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Thanks xanthan and baetown. Based on that model, for what it’s worth, my projections will score around 770 runs. That would be middle of the pack based on 2008. I doubt that will happen. Optimal lineup:
Renteria
TI
Rowand
Sandoval
Winn
Bengie
Lewis
Pitcher
2nd Baseman
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Here’s one… though I think it’s been criticized mucho
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
contract year
AVG: .311
OBP: 372
SLG: 444
HR: 13
SB: 23
"I didn't know (after seeing a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch) whether to shit or go blind." - Former Giants Outfielder Harvey Kuenn on Willie Mays
AVG: 289
OBP: .352
SLG: .401
HR: 8
SB: 12
Proud supporter of the Fightin' Hydrants.
by Little Napoleon on Mar 12, 2009 1:10 PM PDT reply actions
I have a confession
Randy Winn is currently my favorite player on the Giants.
I'm spent, just can't rosterbate anymore.
What about Trav-
oh….. um….
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
(lunch time bow-out)
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
Rowand is my favorite!
No, that not even funny to joke about. Randy is my favorite position player with Cain being my favorite player.
I’ve got to go with Fred Lewis. Sandoval could overtake him with a big season, though.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
Fred is definitely my favorite position player. Matt and Tim are my favorite players overall though. And, like many on here, I’m sure, I think I’m most emotionally invested in Matt’s success.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Grant,
I’m surprised it took you this long to get to his projections. I was expecting an early Winn.
tee hee
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
baseball history pun
I approve.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I expect some decline, but another solid year. I also think there’s a decent chance he gets traded around the deadline, especially if Schierholtz puts up good numbers.
AB: ~550
BA: .279
OBP: .340
SLG: .415
HR: 8
SB: 12
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
AB: 522
AVG: .282
OBP: .357
SLG: .416
HR: 9
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Chatterbalks dot com: Now with updates!
He will decline. He will not be traded. My hope is that Sabean does not sign him to a stupid extension, but the Giants usually do the wrong thing.
At one point last year, I convinced myself that Sabean would trade Lewis and sign Winn to an extension just in time for his decline. We shall see.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
That sound so much like the Sabean way. I have a feeling they will make the wrong decisions with all the reserve infielders currently in camp as well.
It’s cliche to rag on Sabean, but be fair.
Extending Winn doesn’t sound like a move Sabean would make given the recent track record.
He’s only signing FA vets to short deals (Johnson, Renteria, Aurilia), he hasn’t extended any existing vets who are in the last year of their contracts (Molina, Winn) and he even cut one of them (Roberts).
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
a randy winn projection?
what’s the point?
streaky with the bat but will some how end up around a .300 avg.
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Mar 12, 2009 1:48 PM PDT reply actions
Randy Winn is a, uh, baseball player. I mean, he plays for the San Francisco Giants. He plays right field. He, uh, seems like a nice guy.
Grant. I do a lot of copy revisions for a living. I’ll comp you this one.
I like Randy Winn. He plays baseball for the Giants.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
AB: 285
AVG: .259
OBP: .339
SLG: .366
HR: 4
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
way harsh
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Apparently Randy forgot how to play baseball over the offseason. What difference 6 months makes.
Keeping on SWOOPing in the free world! Also, by the reflexive property of the rubber/glue playground comeback, I enjoy wearing hats on my ass.
by SneakToBetterSeats on Mar 12, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Why don’t you write funny posts anymore?
Proud new co-dad of Travis Ishikawa. And ishikaBOOM Goes the Dynamite.
OMG TEH SELLOUT!!!1!!!1
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
There is too much sadness in the world.
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 12, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Hope he leads off all year.
AB: 522
AVG: .303
OBP: .363
SLG: .422
HR: 13
Defense: Awesomeness. I think management’s got a solid strategy in getting a good defender to man tricky RF and and giving him years of exposure to learn it and understand its intricacies/subtleties/tendencies. Learning to play RF effectively at Pac Bell is much like learning to stay in an extended relationship with a hot but psychotic woman.
SB: 22 of 26.
Keeping on SWOOPing in the free world! Also, by the reflexive property of the rubber/glue playground comeback, I enjoy wearing hats on my ass.
by SneakToBetterSeats on Mar 12, 2009 3:40 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
AB: 469
AVG. .274
OBP: .338
SLG: .389
HR: 8
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Mar 12, 2009 3:49 PM PDT reply actions
Grant - You Projection Isn't Just A "Drop In Performance" It Is Almost A Collapse
You are projecting Randy to play as bad in 2009 as he did in 2006 when he played hurt. In 2006 Winn had a .324 OBP and you are projecting a .328 OBP. In 2006 Randy had a .396 SLG and you are projecting a .401 SLG. In my view this is just too much decline to be reasonable. I get it that Randy is 35 and therefore expecting him to start declining is reasonable. But this is not just the start of a decline, this projection is serious decline.
The Rainman Projections For Randy Winn
PA/AB 600/540
BB/HBP 48/5
SF/SH 4/3
SB/CS 25/5
1B/2B/3B/HR 106/37/3/10
AVG/OBP/SLG .289/.348/.424
wOBA/wRC/UZR .340/76.5/7
This is what I would call the start of decline from Giants career, two years ago, and last year’s numbers respectively of:
AVG .298/.300/.306
OBP .347/.353/.363
SLG ..453/445/.426
Final point, Randy’s skills are the type that ages well. His skills are not “old man skills” that decline rapidly.
Randy Winn
AB: 489
AVG: .285
OBP: .328
SLG: .377
HR: 9
I see a bit of a drop-off, and I’m hoping Nate gets a few of Randy’s former AB’s (as well as Fred’s and Aaron’s). I don’t see Randy being valuable enough in July to be traded for much of anything that might help the Giants.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
AB: 500
AVG: .280
OBP: .340
SLG: .420
HR: 12
At this point of his career, we pretty much know what Randy’s going to do with his plate appearances, unless he has more than a few of his patented hot streaks this year.
I thought Grant was supposed to dumb it down for us? And post something shocking & witty. What’s up with the baseball chatter on a baseball blog? pfffttt…
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
AB: 554
AVG: .287
OBP: .345
SLG: .411
HR: 9
pretty much i agree with that zippy guy
by lincypoo i wuv u on Mar 14, 2009 1:52 AM PDT reply actions
AB: 375
AVG: .279
OBP: 331
SLG: .409
HR: 9
Schierholtz is the reason for less AB’s.
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Don't F with the Affeldt
by Giant among Angels on Mar 15, 2009 2:59 PM PDT reply actions
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