PECOTA Fanning the Flames
by Grant Brisbee on Feb 10, 2009 1:45 PM PST
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PrintThe PECOTA-generated standings predictions are up at Baseball Prospectus. The portion relevant to this site:
Worst offense in baseball! Suck it, Padres! A lot of the pessimism has to do with the fact that PECOTA no like a the Giants. For example, Travis Ishikawa’s projected line:
His was one of the better projections, too.
Maybe the Giants will sign Manny – I’m refreshing Drudge every 10 minutes, just to be safe – but I’m thinking the Dodgers eventually will, so I’d tack on an extra 40 runs or so to the Dodgers’ side of the ledger, which would get them closer to the Diamondbacks. I’ll wait to make any formal predictions until after spring training, of course. I’m hoping for a Chris Young/Justin Upton katana duel that causes both to miss some time, but your mileage may vary. Still, this is almost exactly what I’d expect for the Giants: awful hitting, good-not-epic pitching, and an outside chance of contention.
No thesis today. No argument, no opinions of note. Just a couple of images and an admission that I’m really, really, really, really excited to watch what will likely be a 79-win team.
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if they beat 79 wins
does that count as another win?
by Giant Voodoo on Feb 10, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions
I’m still seeing 69-74 wins being more realistic.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
Yikes
Why so pessimistic? Are you expecting significant injury problems?
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
I know I’m not Roger (duh) but when you talk about injury problems, I really wonder about Molina. I think he’s going to fall off the cliff one day and his decline is going to be ugly.
Bengie
Bengie cut down on his strikeouts last season while still hitting for some power. As long as he remains healthy, I’m not expecting much of a drop off. And I come from the weakness of predicting that before Bengie’s contract expired, they would regret having him. I no longer believe that.
I’m not quite as pessimistic as the other Roger, but I did take the under on 79 wins.
I'm preparing myself for a truly excellent
“I was the idiot who thought they’d only win 70 games in ’09” next time we have one of those “man I was stupid when I thought X” posts.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
I’m not say he hasn’t been good, but he’s nearing (past?) the age when catchers usually stop being productive. I think his decline could happy really fast.
Just to aid the Devils Advocacy here.
Well Rock Head was not exactly easy on theBig 2 last season. (Cain threw about 250 more pitches then he had in either ‘6 or ’07.) Those kind of gambles usually don’t come back to haunt you tell a season later. There is the real possibility that the last half of ’08 was the exception for Renteria (not the first half) and his terminal decline has begun. Any of these could wreck a lot of damage to boh this years squad and next years.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Feb 11, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
How much damage can Renteria really do? Compared to what we ran out at SS last year, not much.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
The damage would be to expectation that is a squad should win around 79 games. We go back to the "A" ball express again at SS and I really think this turns into 70 win squad real fast.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Feb 11, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
I think you’re overestimating the amount of damage it’d do. In the 79 win projections, Reteria’s probably adding about 2-2.5 of those wins. So if he ends up performing as last year (when he was worth around 1.5 wins) he’s only losing around 1 win. If he ends up being awful & we end up with replacement level production then we’d lose a couple of wins.
Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!
You might be right.
By my rough figuring I also look at him as providing similar offense as Durham. So if Renteria goes down he is not just returning the SS position back to what it was last year but also removing 1 of the 2 reliable MLB average bats from the INF as well. On a team that can count on maybe 4 proven MLB average bats that’s large hit in my opinion.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Feb 13, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Unlike Xanthan and many others, I can’t add very well, so I don’t really have any evidence to amass behind my opinion. But I guess I have a two-pronged source of uneasiness. 1) I greatly distrust our combination of a pitching staff that loves to hand out walks and a porous infield defense. Just because my wife’s from Michigan I ended up watching a decent amount of Tigers games last year and Renteria was just stunningly statue-like (not statuesque) going to his right. Combined with Sandoval going to his left that seems to me an empty wicket for RH to hit dribblers through. And I don’t much like either Frandsen or Velez D at 2nd. I really worry that the D is going to adversely affect the whole staff. 2) I think we have more people on this team with the potential to get worse offensively in ’09 than we do to get better and if a critical mass of them do that the season will go down with them. That list would include all the vets, plus Sandoval (I hope I hope I hope not, because I so want him to be our next great thing) and Lewis.
That said, a hot streak in April could make a world of difference (like the ridiculous one in 2003 when they could do nothing wrong), and I’m completely ready to forget about all this and be sunny and optimistic come opening day.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
Ishikawa will never make it if he doesn’t learn to steal a base.
I’ll be happy if we make a run at .500.
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
to be fair to him
if i read this correctly, the only time he doesn’t stike out, he hits a home run. he’s batting 1.000 when he makes contact!
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 10, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions
Somewhere in there it looks like he both walked and struck out in the same PA. Or perhaps he walked and hit a home run at the same time. Not sure on the specifics. Also, apparently on 18 different occassions he struck out on wild pitches, but after safely making it to first he got greedy and attempted to steal second.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
how exactly does someone get negative RBI’s?
by microwave donut on Feb 10, 2009 1:55 PM PST reply actions
I was thinking just hanging out by home waiting for the catcher to tag you instead of scoring. Running backward would be negative SB.
I almost want to subscribe to BA just to see what projections could be worse than this one.
by microwave donut on Feb 10, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions
and then tackle the baserunner so he can be tagged out.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
by S.F. Giangst on Feb 10, 2009 7:34 PM PST up reply actions
How does he have 18 caught stealings when he struck out 550 out of 551 plate appearances?
I guess if the ball gets by the catcher a whole lot….
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
He had 552 plate appearances!
1 walk. That could count for three steals right there.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
pinch runner.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Feb 10, 2009 2:49 PM PST up reply actions
You hit into a triple play?
OK if I adopt Randy Johnson?
"What kind of a stupid question is that?"
by victor frankenstein on Feb 10, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions
I have bad news: I went looking through the Diamondbacks projections for overly optimistic projections, and only found two: Mark Reynolds and Chris Young.
The community projections currently have the Giants at 79 wins too. I think we could be an 81-83 win team, though.
I'm spent, just can't rosterbate anymore.
D-Bags
That team has a ton of talent. I don’t see why they’re not a concensus pick to win the division.
by biff pocoroba on Feb 10, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions
Umm...
defense? Plus they don’t have the greatest patience at the plate as a whole but still have a good amount of power (though for some of those guys, their power is greatly inflated by Chase Field) so that’s why their VORPs look so good.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
Your 2009 Opening Day starter at second base*: Eugenio Velez
*For the Fresno Grizzlies
They are going to remain the most interesting club in this division; lots of young talent. But it’s young so who knows when it click with most of them. Then add to that it’s a franchise that has already had money problems in its short past so will they have the money to keep the correct ones and with this economy it gets even riskier.
For example if the first half of this season they start out poorly on the field at the gate do they have start seriously entertaining the idea of trading Webb? The Baseball fan in me hopes not but it would be one move that should let them reset the clock and get a lot of talent back.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
81-83
Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks all finish 2 games below .500
Giants beat Dodgers on October 1
Giants lose to Diamondbacks on October 2
how else does that happen?
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on Feb 10, 2009 4:08 PM PST up reply actions
I like this better
Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks each finish four games below .500.
Giants beat the Dodgers on October 1st.
Giants beat the Diamondbacks on October 2nd.
Third place and fighting for .500 is about where I expect them to end up.
Overall mediocrity, above average pitching, and mixing in some breakthroughs/development on the lower levels would make me ecstatic.
All-in-all, it beats staring deep into a gaping pit of despair all season.
Unless our starting Line up the Rage Fest™ of Winn, Rowand, Roberts, Aurilia, Renterria, Urbie, Hillenbrand Clone, and Molinia. Then we are directly back to staring at the ugly, gaping pit of despair again.
/ Glares at Rock Head
Otherwise I totally agree with you.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
There’s a lot of optimism around here, if you call “thinking we’ll win more than 79 games” optimism.
I’m trying to temper my expectations this year. I’m planning on the Giants exploding from the get go. A couple major injuries, big heaps of not-really-prospects failing to perform well in the bigs, and the pitching not living up to expectations.
If we get 79 wins, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?
.500 or bust!
I’m still betting I’m still betting at least 81 games
Barry Zito - Mildly half-OK! Sometimes.
Also ouch @ Tampa Bay
92-70 and still not predicted to get a playoff spot.
Barry Zito - Mildly half-OK! Sometimes.
79 wins sounds pretty realistic to me.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
one ticket
I am on record (some were around here) as saying this is about a 79 win team. I see no reason to change it yet.
Give my some better then expect infield Defense. A top of the order routinely getting on base and I will start to get excited.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
I voted "perform below"
…but not necessarily by a lot. Right now, I’d guess about 77 wins. If everything goes very well in spring training, I could see 79-80 wins, but it’s too early to decide.
And I think PECOTA vastly underrates the Rockies. SCARSONE has them around 87 wins right now, again depending on developments in March.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
Based on what?
Rockies starting pitching looks dreadful. And I’m not sold on their pen either with Fuentes gone, he was the most consistent reliever they have ever had not named Steve Reed.
Aaron Cook is solid, and Jimenez too. But Francis is rumored to be having arm surgery pretty soon, and Josh Fogg isn’t going to save them. And Franklin Morales lost his control ala Rick Ankiel.
Did Morales ever have it?
The Rockies defense could improve their pitching by a good deal, but I still think the DBacks are a better team.
I'm spent, just can't rosterbate anymore.
I wouldn't go so far as...
to say Aaron Cook is solid, but rather he had a solid year last year… he isn’t an ace.
The Rockies pitching looks really bad… and they lost their best player
by lincysgiants on Feb 10, 2009 4:22 PM PST up reply actions
Giants projection seems about right, but I was dismayed to see the AZ numbers. I had somehow convinced myself that they were no better than a mid-80s win team. I kind of hope they stick Scherzer in the pen, so at least their rotation 3-5 won’t be too much of a sure thing.
well, the system does project them to score about 100 runs more than they did last year, which may or may not be realistic.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
the Diamondbacks are an interesting team, they have Upton, Drew, Connor Jackson, and to a lesser extent Chris Young all as decent possibilities to make major strides. Their pitching is very good, and personally I am a big believer in Max Scherzer.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Feb 10, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
and Mark Reynolds who I think could easily hit 40 homeruns… do they still have Chad Tracy?
by lincysgiants on Feb 10, 2009 4:24 PM PST up reply actions
I had somehow convinced myself that they were no better than a mid-80s win team.
I think part of that is the belief/hope the Giants will be good enough to knock the win total down by 3-4. It could happen. If the ’09 Giants come together better than expected the extra handful of win would have to come from some were and a division rival is a good bet for that.
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
For what it's worth
The double-CD Manny Conundrum by Refreshing Drudge was among the better albums of ’08.
Overrated.
I liked their early stuff better.
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
My suspicion is that the Giants will fall just short of .500 this year.
I also predicted 101 losses last year, so maybe I’m just in a pessimistic place with the team.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
72-76 wins
yes, the starting pitching is slightly better and the bullpen is slightly better and the hitting is slightly better, but the defense is going to be slightly worse. Bochy is the same, but Will Clark is floating around.
Anyway, the team played over its heads to win 72 last year and I think that’ll be about where they end up with 76 being a reasonable upside. With some extra luck they could finish .500, but I don’t count on that because that only includes good luck. With bad luck this team loses 95 games.
Obviously, if Sabes pulls off some deal for a real hitter or two down the stretch, they could win more.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Feb 10, 2009 2:54 PM PST reply actions
yeah, that seems pretty realistic to me.
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Feb 10, 2009 3:12 PM PST up reply actions
This is about where I am. Some of the moves Sabean’s made have been solid, but none of them have exactly been stunning or team-altering. Guys like Sandoval and maybe Ishikawa will provide upgrades compared to last season, but unless Sandoval has a real breakout year, I don’t see anyone emerging as a difference maker. The team will be better, but a .500 record is probably the team’s upside.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
I’d tack on 40 runs to the Dodgers for Manny. But I’d also tack on about 10 runs to their runs allowed too.
I think the projected standings are pretty close to what they’ll be.
by Lars The Wanderer on Feb 10, 2009 3:31 PM PST reply actions
The win totals are off...
Based on Pythagenpat
Here are the win totals based on Pythagenpat:
Arizona: 88 (87.89288)
Los Angeles: 83 (82.59767)
Giants: 80 (79.69711)
Rockies: 78 (78.32071)
Padres: 76 (76.20791)
I probably should look at these using CHONE, ZiPS, and Olivers too.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
Your 2009 Opening Day starter at second base*: Eugenio Velez
*For the Fresno Grizzlies
The Motherfucking Glass is Half-Motherfucking-Full
the diamondbacks and rockies got worse. the dodgers are crumbums and have no reliable pitching. the padres fell off the goddamn cliff.
we will win this crappy division.
i had yesterday off, today is my monday, i need some light at the end of the tunnel.
Dodgers fans eat their young.
I'm with you, man
And after reading all this pessimism I needed to hear some strong language. Our division sucks right now, so I bet we could go 83-79 and win it.
All these low PECOTA expectations can fuck the fuck off.
"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds
But the Diamondbacks are projected to win 90 games. There’s a big difference between 83 and 90.
Of course, there’s also a big difference between projections and reality, but the point is that maybe the division isn’t as terrible at the top end as everybody wants to believe.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Feb 11, 2009 7:10 AM PST up reply actions
did anyone else notice
that the A’s are projected to win the AL West? What happened to the Angels this offseason to make them have the same projected wins as the Giants? Now I hate the Angels just as much as the next guy, but I also think the Giants will outperform the A’s this season, and if that happens I want the Giants to make the playoffs not the A’s!
Are the Angels just the American League mirror image of the Giants?
The A’s actually improved greatly this year while the Angels got worse.
A’s added Holiday and a very cheap Giambi, coupled with some heavy hitters they already had (Cust minus k’s) and their young pitching they could easily take that division.
Angels lost Teixeira, KRod, and some others, did not really add anybody
Texas has some pop, but no pitching whatsoever (They were trying for Sheets for God’s sake)
Seattle…..is trying to land Griffey, lets just leave it at that.
The A’s have a huge leg up on that division.
Just because their pitching is young...
Won’t make them better. Their starters are not that good, it must be the offense that is driving that prediction.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 10, 2009 8:41 PM PST up reply actions
I say 82
It’s what my gut says and I’m hanging on to it like a pit bull with a poodle in its mouth. GRRRRR.
by Johnny Disaster on Feb 10, 2009 5:30 PM PST reply actions
the title is supposed to make me think of Dakota Fanning, right?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
It did for me.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Yes. It was intentional. Let the liquid clever splash about your face.
by Grant Brisbee on Feb 10, 2009 9:43 PM PST up reply actions
Is it possible..
For one division to have 4 of the best 5 in runs against, but also 4 of the top 6 in runs scored? Cus that’s what’s predicted for the AL East.
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
I vote: I don' know
I can see the giants winning 85 or losing 87. I sort of think ~80 wins is less likely. Either Ishi and Pablo, add HRs, SLG and general offense to the team, or they don’t and we get to watch Aurilia and Uribe doing an impression of 2008.
Kent. Hall of Famer. Giant.
I think .500 is to be expected
And anything above is gravy from some players reaching their potentials.
I don’t see how the Giants pitching can be forecasted to give up 4.43 runs per game. That would suggest that we have another two bad starters in the rotation – Sanchez was over 5 ERA in 2008 and the #5 was probably over 6, between Correia, Misch, and others. Perhaps they forecast a bad year for Lincecum due to his high pitch counts at the end of the season. Perhaps they think the Big Unit will come up small. It’s just weird.
All the freely available projections have the Giants giving up much less runs than that. Only Marcel is as high (4.45 RA), most have the team’s ERA down in the high 3’s, which roughly puts the runs allowed around the low 4’s somewhere, 4.00 to 4.25.
If they can score at the 4.34 RS projection that BP has, then at 4.25 RA, they win 83 games. At 4.00 RA, they win 88 games.
That RS rate is on the high side for the projection systems, however. Most have the Giants around the low 4’s in scoring, only Marcel and Bill James have it as high as BP. I think the Giants will skew to the higher end of the scoring projections.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 10, 2009 8:55 PM PST reply actions
oh damn
I got the losses and wins mixed up again!
by bondslegend on Feb 10, 2009 10:08 PM PST up reply actions
2009 Post Season Summary
1 – San Francisco Giants – 83-79 – will have an offense this season, being just enough to win all those close 2-1 games given them by their pitchers (and Barry Zito has a good year)
2 – Los Angeles Dodgers – 81-81 – Manny is signed, and then slumps his production with a 3 year contract in his pocket (causes a media frenzy at ESPN mid-season when he knocks over an old lady for asking him for his name)
3 – Arizona Diamondbacks- 79-83 – 2008’s Colorado Rockies, except, oh yeah, last year they weren’t even good enough to make the World Series (Mark Reynolds leads the majors in Ks, while the clubhouse realizes that now they’ve lost all the batting tips that were being given to the whole team behind closed doors by Micah Owings)
4 – Colorado Rockies – 74-88 – 5 starting pitchers with ERAs above 5.00 (a drunken Colorado fan, angry at losing Holliday, accidentally pushes Clint Barmes down a flight of stairs)
5 – San Diego Padres – 70-92 – surrounded by a stunning batting order of David Eckstein, Jody Gerut, Nick Hundley, Luis Rodriguez, etc., Adrian Gonzalez catches on fire and sets a major league record for hitting 38 home runs with a season total of 41 RBIs (the New York Yankees are now rumored to want him, offering a considerable salary)
"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds
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