Time to bring back Kevin Correia
by 3Com Park on Dec 9, 2009 3:11 PM PST
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According to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on Twitter, Kevin Correia has been told by the Padres he's going to be non-tendered. This comes after the very good year he had in San Diego last year.
My Correia memories aren't pleasant, but this is a guy who demonstrated significant skill improvement last year. he can be had for about $3 million. He'd be a perfect number 5 guy.
Look at his numbers:
He threw 198 innings in 33 starts, striking out 142 and walking 66 for a 3.91 ERA.
There's better news underneath -- he threw more breaking balls (41% last year, 30% the year before). As a result, he gave up more ground balls and fewer line drives. This is real progress.
Some measure of his success comes from Petco, so you figure he'll give up more homers this year.
In short, he should deliver better productivity than Randy Johnson and about the same as Brad Penny would have for a third the price.
Come back Kevin! We still love you!
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A solid arm for the rotation. Pitched about 200 innings so the bullpen could get some rest. Allows Bumgarner time to develop in AAA.
Sure.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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I always liked Kevin
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Welcome home, son!
Oh wait…we don’t do that anymore, do we?
by VidaWantsYourCar on Dec 9, 2009 3:33 PM PST reply actions
Maybe after kicking the tires on Harden, Duke, Sheets, etc.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Sure, whatever.
I don’t remember the specifics of how it went down when he left. Just a non tender where the Padres swooped in, right? Think he’s willing to return?
I always liked him
and his nickname: Kevin “Ain’t Got No Love, No Love You’d” Correia
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
And he’s livin’ at a pace that kills
by VidaWantsYourCar on Dec 9, 2009 4:45 PM PST up reply actions
my favorite
Kevin “I havn’t had a working weapon since” Correia
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
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i suggested picking up corriea at at the august 31 deadline
and was blasted, but i still support signing him on a one year deal…
Yeah he'd be fine for a 1 yr deal
worht 3 mil or so. I would rather try to get a guy like Harden or Bedard but they seem like trap signings
I think it would be a last resort for him, or oodles more money
— I think he’s probably had enough of pitching for teams that do not cannot score runs and refuse to acquire hitters who can give their pitchers more than 45 seconds between innings..
— He was pretty much used, misused, and confused by the Giants, hiccuped badly in 2008, and than was finally shown the door by Sabean in deference to Barry Zito, Joe Martinez, and except for 6 games, the useless Randy Johnson.
So last year for $750,000 the Padres got 198 innings, 12 wins 142 Ks, 64 BB, 3.91 era, a .700OPS against and an obp of .319 and 22 of 33 so-called quality starts, from Kevin Correia.
Zito, for the Uraguayan GDP, gave the Giants 192 innings, 10 wins 154 Ks, 81 BB, 4.04 era, a .715 OPS against and an obp of .328 and 16 of 33 starts where he pitched at least 6 innings giving up no more than 3 runs. He punctuated his sterling Cy Youngesque performance by finishing his "meaningful games in September by going 4.1, 4.0, 5.1 and 5.1 innings in his last 4 starts.
Joe Martinez got a concussion and was a non-factor.
And finally the Giants paid Randy Johnson $8 million to be, as predicted, a non-factor sideshow pitching only effectively in 6 of his starts, of which only one, the win against the Rockies when Hurdle was still managing, came against an eventual play-off team
If Correia get an equivalent offer from a contending team, which he will no doubt, why would he want to come back here? If I’m a player, and I look around at teams that are interested in me and are going to slot me into the rotation and they are bonafide contenders, the only thing I do if I’m Correia, is look at the Giants offer sheet, drop it on the floor, unzip my pants, and go all Lou Brown on it.
by E Ticket on Dec 9, 2009 5:48 PM PST reply actions
I didn’t think it was necessarily a great idea to replace him with an $8 million contract for RJ last year, so I’d certainly be fine with this. Worst case scenario, he sucks, we move him to a swingman bullpen role and promote MadBum.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Dec 9, 2009 6:06 PM PST reply actions
Do Not Want
Kevin Correia would be a good starter for a team that can score runs. On the Giants he would lose more often than he won. With the Giants’ offense you really need five starters who are no worse than a number three.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
But would he be better than MadBum or Martinez?
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 9, 2009 6:50 PM PST up reply actions
I say Martinez yes
MadBum? Probably not but it would save us millions of dollars to keep him at fresno and delay his arb clock
He’d be better than Martinez, but I haven’t heard any comments out of anyone that would make me think that Martinez is going to be the number five starter. I would think that Bumgarner is better than him though, and if not he should be at Fresno and the Giants’ should be looking for a starter better than all of them.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
the Padres had a better offense than you’d think, they were hitting at the mlb equivalent of Dodd.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
What “number 3” pitcher in their right mind would want to be a no. 5 pitcher for one of the worst hitting, non-contending teams in all of baseball ?
by E Ticket on Dec 9, 2009 7:21 PM PST up reply actions
First of all, they WERE a contender last year and in case you forgot they won 88 games. Second of all, pitchers like pitching at ATT. And finally, the Giants’ pay pretty well and most players go to the highest bidder. How many free agents have to sign with the Nationals and Royals before you realize the players don’t care about contending, they care about the best deal?
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
So in other words, you cannot name a number 3 pitcher who wants to be a number 5 pitcher on one of the worst hitting teams in MLB over the last several years and has shown no indication that it is willing to change?
by E Ticket on Dec 9, 2009 9:12 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t really get your point about naming names. How about all of the number three starters in the majors? Brad Penny would have re-signed with the Giants and been their number five starter if they had paid him a dollar more than the Cardinals did. He signed with the highest bidder. You think he wouldn’t have signed with the dreadful Nationals if they offered him a million more than the Cardinals did? All this “wanting to play with a contender” stuff is nonsense. If this was true, why do the Yankees have to pay more than anyone else to sign a free agent? Shouldn’t it follow that they would pay less? After all, they contend every year.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
How about all the number three starters in the majors?
Well, if we extend your thought process, all any team has to do is pay no1 rotation money to their entire pitching staff.
That is simply not realistic, or even rational.
As for the Yankees? Red Sox Manager Terry Francona said it best a couple of days ago:
“The Yankees have the money and they have smart guys who know how to spend it.”
Your statements indicate that your sum knowledge of ballplayers is derived through third party accounts. Your dismissive “Penny would have signed with Giants for one dollar more” is an insult borne of ignorance.
Ballplayers are some of the most competitive people on earth, and for you to imply that they are motivated solely by money is more a reflection of your value system, rather than theirs. They will compete for contracts. They will compete for locker assignments, plane seating, hotel room locations, time in the cage, positioning for the post-game spread and every other damn thing that can be fought over.
There are exceptions of course. Gil Menche, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito. But good pitchers simply do not want to pitch for teams that play mediocre defense and are only going to score 2 runs or less in about 1/3 of their starts. Guys that want to pitch on teams like that, given other alternatives, are guys that few have much respect for. For them it is only about the money. And their performances are a reflection of that.
And thats why, if the Giants don’t get some offense, Lincecum and Cain and others will not sign contracts into their free-agent years.
by E Ticket on Dec 10, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
"The Yankees have the money and they have smart guys who know how to spend it."
Is that really true? The Yankess won 103 games last season with a payrollin of $208M, or about $2 million per win. In contrast, the Giants won 88 games while spending $82M, or less than $1 million per win.
It’s not a perfect comparison, but it demonstrates how with their payroll, they don’t necessarily need to be that “smart” to win.
Another way to look at it is if that the Ginats could have gone out and signed Sabathia, Texiera and Burnett and still had a lower payroll than NY. If they could have added those guys, I’m guessing they’d have won more than 88 games.
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
Your cost-per-win comparsion works only in zero sum roto leagues. The Yankees make tons of money. So do the Giants. Trying to assign a cost per win is a nice exercise for shade-tree actuaries I suppose. Because the bottom line is really that the 30 teams in major league baseball collectively earn more per capita than the 32 teams in the NFL…both are at about SIX BILLION per year. The Giants have close to $200 Million in annual revenues and a payroll of around $85 million.
And it might surprise you to know that 10 of the 32 franchises are owned (or the corporations fronting them) are billionaires. So lets get one thing straight. Every single last baseball franchise is either spilling over with money themselves, or is owned by people who have so much money that 90 percent of the people in this country cannot even comprehend the amounts, let alone should concern themselves in the slightest about how such-and-such a franchise Is going to be able to “compete.”
A canard foisted upon and cultivated by the eminently oily Bud Selig and the rest of the trust fund boob owners.
Smart money invests in new players if old players don’t pan out. Thats the difference between the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers and the Giants. The Yankees don’t screw around waiting for a Carl Pavano or Kevin Brown contract to expire before getting somebody who can and will do the job. Same goes for the Angels. When Gary Mathews Jr busted out, Artie Morreno went and got Tori Hunter, Bobby Abreau and figured a way to work Kendry Morales into the lineup.
The Dodgers offed Bradley for Andre Ethier, persevered with Shawn Kemp and when Juan Pierre went tits up, went out and got Manny Ramirez, and when Orlando Hudson faltered, added Belliard. In other words, when those guys make a mistake, like everybody does by the way, they don’t hang on to it. And they certainly don’t compound their mistakes by repeating them.
Thats what guys who are bent on winning do. They do whatever it takes. To win. They have money. They spend it smartly on good players. Who gives a crap if a win cost 1 million or 4 million? So at the end of the year, the chumps who finish 7games out of 1st place get bragging rights because they chose to not compete with the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mariners, Tigers, Phillies for fair-market priced players? Please.
The Giants in a similar span of time threw 50 percent of their payroll at the likes of Barry Zito, Randy Johnson, Edgar Renteria, Dave Roberts, Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn. Seeing that they did not pan out, Sabean traded away two pitching prospects for a guy on the DL who when he finally came back OPSed under .600, and then compounded this egregiousness by signing the broken down wreck to a two year contract at the end of the year for 12 million. And for the other guy he traded away for a prospect? Garko is going to get non-tendered.
So the unsaid part of that thought to put it in the context of the Giants is this:
“The Giants have a lot of money too, and they have really stupid people there that know how to waste it.”
by E Ticket on Dec 10, 2009 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
LOL E Ticket
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2009-08-29/yankees-among-suitors-for-brad-penny
“Your dismissive Penny would have signed with Giants for one dollar more is an insult borne of ignorance.”
Why did Penny choose the Giants’ last year when he could have signed with the mighty always contending Yankees and gone to the World Series? I think you have it reversed. Yes, players would rather play for a contender if all things are equal, but the vast majority of them are going where the money is.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
That example makes no sense
He didn’t get any additional money from anyone. He was paid according to his Red Sox contract, and would have been paid exactly that much no matter what team he was on.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
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Jeezo, :D
The Red Sox paid all but about a hunnert dollars of his salary last year. San Francisco gave him the best chance to succeed. And if they went to the playoffs which looked like it might have happened if the stiffs (Sanchez and Garko) that Sabean had traded for weeks earlier had been worth a shit, he would have risen from the ashes to prominence in 4 short weeks..
He had little to no success in the AL East and great success in the NL West. So he was healthy, confident, and knew his new opponents well. Again it gave him the best chance to succeed and a chance to pitch in the playoffs.
Short-term money was simply not a factor. Competitive considerations ruled in this instance.
by E Ticket on Dec 11, 2009 5:18 PM PST up reply actions
"He didn’t get any additional money from anyone. "
that was my point. He picked SF over NY even though the Yankees are always contending and the Giants, as E said, “are one of the worst offensive non contending teams in all of baseball” How is playing for a contender your motivation if you choose the Giants over the Yankees?
E also added that the Giants “gave him the best chance to succeed and a chance to pitch in the playoffs.” Again, how is that possible if they’re one of the worst non contending teams in all of baseball? The Yankees already had a playoff spot sewn up on the day that Brad Penny signed with the Giants.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
How much do ou want to spend on the rotation?
Because it’s going to be 60M or more pretty soon if the worst guy is a #3 on most teams.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
On the Giants he would lose more often than he won
This is true for:
- Jonathan Sanchez.
- Barry Zito.
- 80% of the pitchers in the majors.
I was promised lasagna.
Matt Cain
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 10, 2009 10:23 PM PST up reply actions
Timmah
whenever he doesn’t throw a shutout. 14 WINZ
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Nobody puts Bengie in a corner!
by natteringnabob on Dec 12, 2009 7:36 AM PST up reply actions
Don’t really want. Don’t really care.
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by Giant among Angels on Dec 9, 2009 7:07 PM PST reply actions
I'm very surprised there's no trade interest for him
He’ll probably make $3-4 in arbitration, about half of what Rich Harden and Brad Penny got and Correia was worth 2.4 WAR last year compared to Penny 2.5 and Harden 1.8. Seems like a bargain. Sabean made a mistake letting him go, his 2008 was a fluke and he was definitely misused in his tenure with the Giants (moved up too early, bounced between the rotation and pen endlessly and then shown the door after a year where he was injured and gave up an insane .340 BABIP).
Meh.
His name's Clayton, not Danny.
by walkoff baltimore chop on Dec 9, 2009 9:12 PM PST reply actions
I think his last season was a fluke
A park-supported fluke, at that. He’s going to be worse next year (in my opinion) and he’ll be getting payed more. There are better options elsewhere.
Besides, the Padres apparently don’t want Lewis or Frandsen. I don’t know what we could offer if they reject our two best trade chips!
I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?
what were his home/ away splits?
Les Plack = more chicks
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by Headhunter Rollins on Dec 10, 2009 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
i found them myself
I Split W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
Home 4 6 .400 3.68 18 18 0 0 0 0 107.2 95 48 44 11 40 4 70 3 1 450 1.254 5.9 1.75
Away 8 5 .615 4.18 15 15 0 1 1 0 90.1 99 44 42 6 24 2 72 1 0 380 1.362 7.2 3.00
sorry about the poor formatting, but with these splits, especially the promising road splits, why wouldnt he be valuable to us?
Les Plack = more chicks
Dingerz.exe League Champs 2009- The Rile Rods...managed by yours truly.
by Headhunter Rollins on Dec 10, 2009 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
One more I would like to add
Home BABIP
.260
Away BABIP
.343
I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?
A park-supported fluke, at that.
What leads you to state that?
His home and road splits are inconclusive at best
by E Ticket on Dec 10, 2009 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
His K’s were up, BB’s were down. He picked up two MPH on his fastball. Petco has nothing to do with that. Not to mention that he was actually a good pitcher both in 2006 and in 2007, it just took one bad year for the Giants to forget it.
I was promised lasagna.
Not to mention that he was actually a good pitcher both in 2006 and in 2007, it just took one bad year for the Giants to forget it.
This! I was pretty frustrated with the way they just ignored his entire body of work.
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
Let me clarify
I don’t think he was awful, just average or a bit below. And yes, I do think the park had something to do with it. His opponent’s OPS at Petco was .664. Away from Petco, it was .749. That away line isn’t horrible – that’s pretty much average. That’s what I think he was.
His walks were okay, his homerun rate was way low, and his strikeouts were improved but still below the league average. My issue is not with his real talent, of which he has some. My issue is with his perceived talent, which IS a fluke, and clearly influenced by Petco. Was Brad Penny really as good as the money the Cardinals are giving him? I don’t think so, and so I’m happy the Giants let him go. I think Penny’s starts with the Giants were the same kind of fluke – a couple flashy numbers supported by a pitcher’s park and good defense. Not a good representation of his true talent level, or what someone should pay for him.
Correia would command what, at least 3 or 4 million? Maybe less. Somebody is probably willing to pay him that much, though, if the Padres let him go. My question is why would we pay that? Is he at all likely to be worth 3 or 4 million dollars MORE than one of Pucetas, Joe Martinez, Bumgarner, or our latest Rule V find? I don’t think so.
If you want to beat the market, pay for premium talent, acquire the mediocre stuff for cheap. The Giants have always been good at the cheap pitching talent thing – paying Correia anything like what he’s likely to get would be overpaying for talent we already have in the system. Even more so if we were to give up a prospect (any prospect) for him. It doesn’t make sense to me.
I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?
~ league average from a #5 starter at a reasonable price isn’t such a bad thing.
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
Not in a vacuum. But if we already have that, for league minimum – why pay it?
I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?
Obviously Correia’s ERA benefited from pitching at Petco. That’s why we look at his peripheral stats, which were good. He had a 2.22 K/BB – do you think that has anything to do with Petco? His BABIP was very similar to his career one. His HR/9 was a bit lower than usual, but not by much. Regress that and you’d still get a solid ERA.
I don’t think anyone expects Correia to repeat his 3.91 ERA, but a ~4.50 ERA seems very reasonable reasonable – after all, his career ERA as a starter (435 IP, most of it out of Petco) is 4.38. It’s also similar to what the projection systems are projecting for him (around 3,9-4.2, but I think that’s assuming he stays in Petco). I think it’s also similar to what you’re expecting, judging by your comment that he’s pretty much average.
So that’s an average starting pitcher who’s likely to stay that way for a few years. For 3-4 million, that sounds like a bargin.
I was promised lasagna.
I don’t think we’re really disagreeing that much. We both agree his pitching is pretty average, and I think an ERA of around 4.50 is a reasonable guess going forward. I think we also agree that Petco helped, and I’m not denying that his peripherals are okay. Few homers, not too many walks, okay K rate. My BABIP comment above was my best guess as to why his Petco numbers were better than the road ones. I think it indicates that he was mostly pretty lucky when he pitched at home. There certainly isn’t much other difference between the two.
In a pure hypothetical situation, Correia would be an okay pickup. Not great, not horrible. A bargain, assuming he is consistent. But we’re the Giants, and we’ve got a pretty fair number of guys that I think can do the same job, and not cost a penny above league minimum. Maybe I’m wrong about those guys, and they would fall short of league average for us. If so, Correia could be a decent investment.
I suppose, really, that this argument isn’t really about Correia, after all, but more about whether or not we need to pay out any cash for a fifth starter. If, for example, one of our current established starters were dealt for a position player, I would probably revisit my stance on this one. As it is, though, I don’t think Correia would be a good fit.
I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?
I don’t really believe Joey or Pucetas could be anything like league average starters this year. In fact I don’t believe either would be able to pitch every 5th day for half a season without forcing the team to make a move to replace them.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Correia is a number 5 starter
Through most of last year his numbers mirrored Zito’s. One problem though is that he rarely can go deep in games. and if he were taken out of games an inning earlier his era would be much lower. He showed much improvement last year with Bud Black. Can he at least keep those improvements under Rags? He could have been a contender, had he been the 5th starter on the giants last year. Welcome back Kevin.
Padres are going to non-tender Correia so Sabes should jump in and trade before he hits the FA market and the cost goes up
Like, say, their old manager.
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Dec 12, 2009 5:01 PM PST up reply actions
They may still trade him
There was lots of interest, but it probably won’t be to the Giants.
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