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WAR, Postitional adjustments and moving Pablo Sandoval to 1B


I feel it's worth mentioning something that people need to consider when you're using WAR to compare players and also when you're talking about whether to move Sandoval to 1B or not. WAR is calculated using positional adjustments, which are a good way of determining the overall ability of a player or when comparing players who play at different positions. It's very good if you're looking at two players in a vacuum but troubles arise if you'e doing a comparison in a team context.

In the Giants situation that can cause trouble if you're comparing a 1B and a 3B using straight WAR. The reason for this is that 3B get a 1.5 WAR boost over 1B because they can play 3B and so they should. In the Giants situation they have a player who can play 3B (Sandoval) and so the positional effect isn't anywhere near as big.

How big is the effect? Well that depends on how Sandoval's defense rates at the two positions. So far he has a UZR/150 of -3.6 which is only in a small sample size, but seems reasonable. I'll take that as his true level for the moment but you can adjust accordingly if you disagree. In order for the positional 1.5 WAR adjustment to be true, Sandoval would therefore need to be a +11.4 1B. Now that just isn't feasible as no 1B is that good defensively and so the Sandoval will "lose value" at 1B.

Now how good defensively will Sandoval be at 1B? Well he should be pretty decent although i don't think he's going to a league leader defensively. Three examples of well renowned defensive 1B are Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira and Casey Kotchman, they have career UZR/150 of 0.1, 1.7 and 4.4. They average to around +2 per 150 games and so lets say that Sandoval is above average and can put up a UZR/150 of around 1.4 (as that's a convenient number).

That means that that Sandoval will gain around 5 runs defensively from the move to 1B which is nowhere near the 15 runs the positional adjustment provides. What that means is that if we were to sign a 2B/3B his actual effective WAR (as in how good he'd make the team) is quite possibly 1 WAR less than is actual stated WAR. So a free agent 2B/3B who you think is a 2.5  WAR player might actually only effectively be a 1.5 WAR player when compared to a 2.5 WAR 1B. Or the improvement over Garkokawa might seems like it's worthwile and a 1.5 win improvement when actually it's only a 0.5 win improvement. So a pretty rough rule of thumb is to subtract 1 WAR (or however much you think) from the value of a 2B/3B if you're using WAR, to get their effective value to the team.

Now the numbers aren't exact and you can argue about the specifics but if you're using WAR and the like you've got to consider the effect on the team as a whole and not just on the single players. The Giants may not really understand how moving a player down the defensive spectrum has an effect on the team, and assume that it doesn't matter whether Sandoval plays 1B or 3B but the reality is that the two players you're comparing aren't being compared to the same baseline.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Put another way, most 1B can hit much better than most 3B. Why put one guy who hits like a 1B in your lineup, when you could put two?

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Dec 9, 2009 5:54 AM PST reply actions  

Yeah, that’s putting it in a nice way. Or to expand on that, why commit a lot of resources to find a 3B or 2B who can hit like a 1B when you could simply go with the 1B. Of course the reason is that Sabean has got a huge hangup with 1B although I’ve never worked out why.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Dec 9, 2009 6:22 AM PST up reply actions  

So, is this an argument for forgetting about Beltre and Uggla, and

simply focusing on Johnson or LaRoche? I’d be fine with that, since Sabean has now decided the market for catchers and #5 starters is beyond the Giants’ resources, and seemingly he’s focusing on a corner infielder. Adding Johnson or LaRoche to the infield is only a start though, as this team needs another bat from a corner outfield position, and yet Sabean appears to be ready to go cheap and in-house there as well.

They must really be spooked about how the Lincecum arb may cripple them over the coming years.

Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.

by Al Rosen on Dec 9, 2009 6:33 AM PST reply actions  

It isn’t a case for forgetting about them entirely, more as case of realizing that they wouldn’t provide the upgrade you’d expect (from simply looking at their WAR) and so the acceptable price should be accounted for accordingly. In practice that means that you’d be better off simply going for a 1B unless Beltre or Uggla are available at a very good price which seems unlikely.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Dec 9, 2009 6:42 AM PST up reply actions  

I think the issue is that the 1B options are lefties, while Sabean seems to be after a right handed bat. Also, they don’t hit like real first basemen anyways.

I can’t see Johnson or LaRoche putting up even acceptable power numbers in AT&T, while Beltre or Uggla might be a better bet. Money of course is a factor, but I don’t think there’s a great read yet on what exactly the market is.

by microwave donut on Dec 9, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Who cares about power numbers as long as they maintain their overall production? Nick Johnson has a career .371 wOBA – that doesn’t se the world on fire but it’s average for a 1B (which is a lot more than we’ve been getting for a long time now)….

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions  

umm... me?

Overall production in not only OBP.

by microwave donut on Dec 9, 2009 2:10 PM PST up reply actions  

and wOBA != OBP

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Dec 9, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

AHA!

I thought it was something other than it is (obp weighted for parks etc).

The way it is calculated (weighted for xbh), I would not expect him to maintain that.

by microwave donut on Dec 9, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions  

The number I listed isn’t park adjusted, that’s true. I don’t know what the National park factor is, but our park plays neutral overall. Of course, you’re correct that it saps lefties of HR power. It does give that back in triples alley, though, if the batter can take advantage of that. If someone cares enough they could pull up Nick Johnson’s spray chart to figure out how his power might translate to our park. If he’s hitting a decent amount of RCF gappers that’s good, if he’s a big time pull hitter, that’s bad.

Even if it declines some because of AT&T, I expect it to still be good enough for a 1B overall, and much better than our current options (and better than the 3B options)…

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 5:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Uggla’s good enough offensively that I think he’d make a decent 1B, but Johnson’s better anyway (and probably cheaper). LaRoche is a second-half guy who doesn’t deserve a big contract, and Beltre is a neither-half guy who doesn’t deserve a big contract. Johnson>Uggla>>>Beltre>LaRoche. But if we got Uggla, I’d play him at first; I want to keep Pablo at third for as long as possible, and Uggla’s a FA after 2011, so let’s not have Pablo lose his ability to play third.

by quincy0191 on Dec 9, 2009 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

These are my thoughts as well. Let’s keep Panda at 3B.

Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo.

by Lyle on Dec 10, 2009 6:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Pablo’s career 3b UZR/150 cant be an accurate description of his real defensive abilities as it is skewed from 12 games played at above average defense in 2008.

His real performance should be evaluated from his 2009 stats, which giveS him a 6.4 UZR/150 - not the -3.6 UZR/150 that is driven down by SSS.

by Fresburg on Dec 9, 2009 6:37 AM PST reply actions  

That should say -6.4 UZR/150

by Fresburg on Dec 9, 2009 6:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Not at all, his real performance should be evaluated from all the data you have at your disposal rather than ignoring Small samples that seem unreasonable. I’m sure Sandoval has had a small 12 game sample over which his UZR looks like Adam Dunn but you just don’t see them as they’re hidden, whereas you happen to see a small sample of good play because you’re breaking up his time by an irrelevant partition due to it being a different year.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Dec 9, 2009 6:47 AM PST up reply actions  

How is career UZR/150 calculated?

by Fresburg on Dec 9, 2009 6:57 AM PST up reply actions  

With pixie dust and dreams!

by xanthan on Dec 9, 2009 7:06 AM PST up reply actions  

lol

Still in despair.
"Use the stencil! Do it!"
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ

by Zetsuboushita on Dec 9, 2009 11:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Computers don't dream!

Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo.

by Lyle on Dec 10, 2009 6:45 AM PST up reply actions  

yes they do

of electric sheep!

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Dec 10, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I still think that’s a ridiculous title for a story.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Dec 10, 2009 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Ridiculously awesome

GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.

by groug on Dec 10, 2009 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory

by Natto on Dec 10, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Torry Holt?

Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo.

by Lyle on Dec 10, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions  

it might be

one of the ones he (PKD) was given a title for from the sci-fi mag and told to write a story. Like “The Zap Gun”.

But it makes sense if you read the story… since the humans are dreaming of real sheep (because all the animals are dead)

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Dec 11, 2009 9:48 AM PST up reply actions  

(career UZR/Games)* 150

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Dec 9, 2009 9:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Nope. UZR/150 is actually a little more complicated than that. The 150 isn’t actually games – it’s 150 games worth of opportunities, not just games played. That’s how Franklin Gutierrez can have a UZR of 29.1 in 153 games….

Hmmm….it seems Fangraphs changed something. Maybe they really are using games or innings or something now. They definitely weren’t before, on Oct 16 Gutierrez’s listed UZR/150 for the season was 19.2. Now it’s 27.1. Does anyone know anything about this change?

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions  

it’s probably innings, but I opted for the simpler version.

It’s just a weighted mean, whatever it is.

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Dec 9, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I’m just confused because it used to be opportunities, which let you see if a guy was getting more chances than you’d expect him to get, on average. Whatever they use now, it seems to not be what they were using.

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions  

Pablo’s career 3b UZR/150 cant be an accurate description of his real defensive abilities as it is skewed from 12 games played at above average defense in 2008.

This does not skew things – it actually adds more information, and needs to be accounted for. You can’t just drop data because you feel like it to get an unbiased result, dropping the data (unless the mean of the dropped data = the mean of the overall data) adds bias to your numbers. The same system produced the 2008 and 2009 numbers, so there’s no reason to suspect there’s any bias present in 2008 that is not present in 2009…..so basically, using the full set of data is the correct way to go.

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 6:57 AM PST up reply actions  

you need about 3 full seasons to get a good UZR

and no, as others have stated above, you should not throw out the good numbers from 2008 just because they don’t agree with the bad ones in 2009.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Dec 9, 2009 10:19 AM PST up reply actions  

you need about 3 full seasons to get a good UZR

I don’t think that’s the right intepretation, is it? My understanding is 3 years of UZR roughly equals 1 year of hitting numbers. But I wouldn’t call one year of hitting numbers “good” in terms of how they reflect a players true talent…

Agree/disagree?

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions  

well 1 season is better than half a season!

but you are correct, “good” is ill defined in my statment.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Dec 9, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions  

So UZR only becomes fully reliable when a player is in his mid-thirties…….this could explain a lot about Sabean’s methods.

Lucky Giants shorts from Target > Jobu

by AXmrdrir on Dec 9, 2009 9:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Nah, because once a play gets past 28 or so you can never be sure if a drop in his UZR numbers is an actual decline or just a fluke/sample error/measurement error….

by Missing Barry on Dec 10, 2009 8:17 AM PST up reply actions  

I’m convinced that the 1.5 win positional adjustment from first to third is too high. You can calculate overall offensive production at a position in many different ways, but I have the difference between first and third at about 8 runs. I can get it up to 12 or so using different assumptions. But 16 is just too much. And that’s not counting defensive value.

That said, I don’t understand why the organization is so eager to bounce Pablo across the diamond. There are so many reasons not to:

  • He wasn’t terrible at third.
  • He’s still fairly new to the position, so his decision-making and positioning should improve.
  • He’s on a weight loss program that seems to be working, so his range could get a little better.
  • He has a strong arm, but he’s not too tall — a combination that suggests that his defensive performance would receive less of a boost from moving from third to first than most players would.
  • We have a strongly flyball/strikeout oriented pitching staff, which means infield defense is a little less valuable to our team than to most.
  • The potential replacements at first base are better/cheaper than the potential replacements at third.

by Evan on Dec 9, 2009 7:46 AM PST reply actions  

Well, positional adjustments are defensive, not offensive…

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 9:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Except when they’re not. We had a long discussion about this a couple of weeks ago that left me more confused than enlightened.

The MGL/Tango UZR data showed that the defensive adjustment for moving from third to first is 5 to 7 runs. They decided to ignore that when creating the “official” position adjustments, for various reasons.

by Evan on Dec 9, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I was part of that discussion, too….

Someone needs to lay out the details of positional adjustments in a more clear manner in one easy to reference spot…

That’s why we prefer a defensive position adjustment. The position adjustment scale we use is as follows

-Fangraphs

But….I’m just not seeing the connection between the extensive explanations of positional adjustment over at “The Book” and the ones Fangraphs uses. I’m reading everything I can find on it and just getting more confused….

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions  

I think they’re trying to arrive at some common-sense middle ground between pure defensive adjustments and real-world offensive adjustments. Which is fine, but the whole process seems pretty crude and arbitrary at the moment.

I’m comfortable with the idea that the relative values of the three outfield positions are basically predictable and reliable. The relative values of the three non-1B infield positions are too, though not to the same degree. But you can’t adjust outfield to infield with any degree of confidence, and 1B and catcher are on scales of their own.

by Evan on Dec 9, 2009 11:46 AM PST up reply actions  

I’m comfortable with the idea that the relative values of the three outfield positions are basically predictable and reliable. The relative values of the three non-1B infield positions are too, though not to the same degree. But you can’t adjust outfield to infield with any degree of confidence, and 1B and catcher are on scales of their own.

After everything I just reviewed out of “The Book”, that’s pretty much my conclusion, too. I’m comfortable with the OF adjustments relative to each other, comfortable with the IF adjustments (for the most part, it still seems to me that 2B should have a slightly larger adjustment than 3B), but I dunno about the difference between OF/IF, and 1B seems to be on it’s own and I’m not sure if I like it…..

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 12:27 PM PST up reply actions  

I wonder

if the difference is due to the fact that LH throwers cannot play 3B/2B. So they are automatically 1B/OF.
It seems to play 1B or corner OF well requires a somewhat different skillset, but if a guy can hit enough, he’s got to play somewhere (in the NL at least).

What is the UZR data for OF <→ 1B?

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Dec 9, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions  

I closed all my tabs I had open of the stuff I was reading. If you look long enough through “The Book”‘s archives, they address that. Don’t remember off the top of my head…

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions  

They said the handedness restriction added three runs to the 1b position adjustment, but I have no idea how they arrived at that.

by Evan on Dec 9, 2009 8:19 PM PST up reply actions  

probably by doing the (offensive) splits with LHH vs RHH

of 1B vs others.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Dec 10, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions  

We cannot do Operation Panda and then hide him at first. If he hadn’t lost all this weight, I think it would be reasonable to move him to first.

The only reason it makes sense to shop for a third baseman is that they seem to be underrated to an extent. While that might not be true of our specific targets, on average first basemen get paid much more than third basemen.

I actually like the idea of a Joe Crede signing, if we get a 3b. Over the last 2 years he’s put up 1.7 and then a 1.9 WAR in 97 and 90 games, respectively. When he goes down, we can shift Pablo to third and have Garkokawa take over first, and Crede will cost less than similar upgrades.

Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.

by MonkeyChow on Dec 9, 2009 8:48 AM PST reply actions  

do u believe what you see

or are you going to believe the UZR. Thats not a stat I can believe in.

by bradleybear on Dec 10, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions  

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