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Smoak and Feliz for Cain?

I recently read from MLB Trade Rumors that the Rangers offered Justin Smoak and Neftali Perez to the Marlins for Josh Johnson. The Marlins turned down the offer, which got me thinking about Matt Cain. Cain in my opinion is just as good if not better than Johnson. There are a lot of similarties between the two pitchers. If the Rangers considered Johnson I do not see why they wouldn't consider Cain. Would this be a possibility?


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what is the upside of this trade for the giants?

Not that familiar with the Rangers players, except for their second baseman Kinsler who killed the giants in interleague play. Can we get him?

by bradleybear on Dec 8, 2009 8:55 PM PST reply actions  

what is the upside of this trade for the giants?

The fact that Feliz and Smoak are big time prospects and we could get 6 years of team control, most them very cheap, out of it, and there’s a decent chance either Feliz turns into an ace or Smoak into a perennial all-star…

by Missing Barry on Dec 8, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions  

There’s no way the Rangers do this deal. If I’m the Giants’ and that offer comes across I’d jump on that like a kangaroo….um….jumps on whatever they like to jump on.

by tyrannoman on Dec 8, 2009 9:02 PM PST reply actions  

STOP GIVING ME A SAD

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Dec 8, 2009 9:12 PM PST reply actions  

I have trouble believing that rumor is true.

by Dan from NM on Dec 8, 2009 9:13 PM PST reply actions  

this

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Dec 9, 2009 7:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Both Smoak and Perez are considered to be two of the higher rated prospects in all of baseball.

by VTown on Dec 8, 2009 9:13 PM PST reply actions  

A Tearful Yes

I’d offer Sanchez and a prospect, but that likely wouldn’t do it, so I’d bit my lip, choke back my tears and give up Cain if we got those two. Smoak was in the same draft as Posey, and there was strong support here for taking him then. He is about on par with Posey’s development, and is considered a possible perinnel All Star. Feliz (not Pedro) is viewed as possible number one starter. So, yes I’d do the trade—even though I’d hate losing Matt Cain.

by Sblantonus2002 on Dec 8, 2009 9:13 PM PST reply actions  

My opinion, too. It would be a really tough call, but I’d probably make the trade in the end.

Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Dec 8, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I love Matt Cain

but considering the talent coming back, I’d pull the trigger on that in a heartbeat

by tyrannoman on Dec 8, 2009 9:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I pull the trigga!

I have finally accepted the fact that I will never win a McCoven award.

by The Thrill on Dec 8, 2009 10:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

And I’m the biggest Matt Cain fan here (same HS as my kids). But yes, I’d trade Matt Cain if it meant we’d get Justin Smoak. Heck, I’d do the trade straight up. Then I’d cry. Then I’d wait for teh dingerzz.

Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo.

by Lyle on Dec 9, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

That is exactly the kind of trade the Marlins are known to make

I can’t believe they would turn that one down, but then again this could just be an unsubstantiated rumor.

I would definitely do this trade since Posey, Panda and Smoak could be the heart of the Giants order for the good part of this decade and Feliz showed he has the overpowering stuff of a #1 starter if he could be stretched out. And if he proves to be better as a closer he could allow the Giants to package Wilson for a good return.

by baseballjunkie on Dec 8, 2009 9:21 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah, this trade would be a no brainer for the Giants to do. Also, Josh Johnson is a better pitcher than Matt Cain, he just has more injury concerns. I can’t believe the Marlins would have turned this deal down.

Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.

by marcello on Dec 8, 2009 9:26 PM PST reply actions  

I would guess they turned down this deal

because they have Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez as 1B’s in waiting. Its a horrible reason to say no but that’s the only reason I can see.

by Gobroks on Dec 8, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Also they might actually want to keep Johnson. They do have a new ballpark on the way.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 8, 2009 11:34 PM PST up reply actions  

If they want to keep Johnson, they should have signed him to the extension he offered them.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 8, 2009 11:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Well they still seem to think they can reach an agreement. Their GM already said 2 weeks ago that he’s not going to be traded this off-season.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 9, 2009 12:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Ah

I thought I’d read somewhere that they weren’t going to try to sign him long-term this offseason, but I may have been mistaken.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 12:10 AM PST up reply actions  

They Did Try

They offered 3 years (last two of arbitration and one free agent year). He isnsisted on 4 years and they were not willing to go there.

by giantsrainman on Dec 9, 2009 12:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Do the Rangers have a third big time, near MLB ready prospect close to the level of Smoak or Feliz?

by Missing Barry on Dec 8, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Probably

They have one of the best farm systems in baseball, if not the best.

by quincy0191 on Dec 8, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I mean, we could always get the Diamondbacks involved to throw in prospects just so they get the joy of participating in a trade!

by Missing Barry on Dec 8, 2009 10:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Byrnes sez

“WOO TRADES! TRADES FUN! BYRNES LIKE TRADE!”

by quincy0191 on Dec 8, 2009 11:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Here’s a Max Scherzer!

Hey Fred Lewis, remember Mother's Day?

by anotherbadexcuseguitar on Dec 9, 2009 1:05 AM PST up reply actions  

The d-backs are getting killed for this trade, but I don’t buy that Scherzer is that good. He only has 2 pitches. I believe he’ll end up as an effective reliever, rather than an effective starter.

by Fresburg on Dec 9, 2009 6:18 AM PST up reply actions  

Dude strikes out more than 9 batters per 9 IP, already has solid control, and he does have a chanegup, even if it’s not amazing. There seem to be legitimate injury concerns with him, but in terms of his stuff, he’s pretty legit….

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 7:06 AM PST up reply actions  

The change up is no good. Ian Kennedy has a chance to be just as good, if not better than Scherzer.

I don’t like that they gave up Schlereth also, but his value is limited anyways.

by Fresburg on Dec 9, 2009 7:52 AM PST up reply actions  

I mean, it is a point, but I just don’t see how that overcomes the fact that Scherzer has already produced a season of 170 innings as an effective starter…

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 8:28 AM PST up reply actions  

He’s done really well with 2 pitches, which is why I think he’ll end up in the Pen. He could be a really good closer.

Noone here in Arizona believes he can stick in the rotation. He had too many short outings, which caused a lot of stress on the bullpen.

by Fresburg on Dec 9, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Even if he has short innings, 170 IP is a lot more than he’ll get as a closer, and helps his team more (assuming he’s effective over that kind of workload, as he was this past year) than he can do as a closer….

The injury things seems like a better argument to me than his pitches/not working deep enough into games…

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Wow, you really think that Ian Kennedy has a chance to be as good or better than Scherzer? I really can’t see it, Scherzer has pitched very well and looks a good starter whereas I’ve never thought that much of Ian Kennedy.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Dec 9, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions  

While Kennedy has yet to prove it in the bigs, his minor league stats and fall league performance give hope for the future.

Although I’ll admit, I’ve never seen him throw (Big Disclaimer).

by Fresburg on Dec 9, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Kennedy

This is one time that the scouting consensus on a player really has me concerned. He never walked many in the minors and he actually struck out nearly 10 per 9, but scouts are still really worried about him. When there is that much disparity between the scouts and the numbers, I get worried.

Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Dec 9, 2009 11:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Didn't Pat Misch have good K numbers too?

Maybe not as good as 10 per 9, but still pretty high?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Dec 9, 2009 4:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Scherzer at least has one plus pitch. Kennedy has none.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Kennedy has certainly got nice minor league numbers but the question mark with him has always been his lack of a plus pitch and so it’s unsure how that’ll translate to the majors.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Dec 10, 2009 3:09 AM PST up reply actions  

I read somewhere that scouts are concerned about Scherzer’s mechanics.

If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.

by esseffgeez on Dec 9, 2009 9:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Crap I’m fresh out of Scherzers. Here is a Upton and Young, take what you please.

say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan

by say hey nation on Dec 9, 2009 6:45 AM PST up reply actions  

How about 5 years of Cruz?

Cruz, Smoak, Feliz for Timbo.

"…this thing which tells time."

by Cody_ransom on Dec 8, 2009 9:50 PM PST up reply actions  

I would pack him a goodie bag full of munchies for the drive to Texas

I have finally accepted the fact that I will never win a McCoven award.

by The Thrill on Dec 8, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions  

me likey Elvis Andrus and Borbon

by wilriv21 on Dec 9, 2009 7:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Martin Perez

is a young lefty who ended last year at AA.

by Gobroks on Dec 8, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Andrus
Borbon
Smoak
Feliz

by wilriv21 on Dec 9, 2009 5:53 AM PST up reply actions  

No trade for an elite starting pitcher in the past few years has netted three elite prospects. The Cliff Lee deal netted none. CC Sabbathia was worth one elite prospect.

Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Dec 9, 2009 7:23 AM PST up reply actions  

The Cliff Lee deal netted none.

Well that is the Indians fault.

CC Sabbathia was worth one elite prospect.

For half of a season.

say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan

by say hey nation on Dec 9, 2009 7:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, it was the Indians’ fault. I never disputed that. It also set the market. Now a team that wants Tim can say, “look at what Philadelphia gave up for Lee. Why should we give up that much more?” As for CC, that is a very legitimate point. I was merely trying to point out that the market (plus Tim’s soon to be much higher salary) will suppress what we get in return. Replacing his 8 WAR, let alone improving upon that, will be very difficult.

Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Dec 9, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Bedard was up there in terms of elite prospects – Adam Jones, George Sherrill and Chris Tillman are close to that, plus they got two more prospects that I don’t know much about

Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.

by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 9, 2009 8:21 AM PST up reply actions  

I always forget about Bedard. That was a steal for Baltimore.

Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Dec 9, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Bill Bavasi though

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions  

I want to cry even at the mention of this. Please, please never say this again.

STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.

by UnleashTheGore on Dec 9, 2009 9:29 AM PST up reply actions  

3rd prospect: Martin Perez

An 18 yo lefty who dominated in the Sally League. Has drawn comparisons to Johan Santana. A longs ways off but could be the pitcher MadBum was supposed to be.

Still, I would not do this trade for Timmy… not the Face of the Franchise!

by baseballjunkie on Dec 8, 2009 9:50 PM PST reply actions  

Why do you assume MadBum isn’t the pitcher he’s supposed to be? The poor kid’s barely 20!

by quincy0191 on Dec 8, 2009 9:56 PM PST up reply actions  

LOST VELOCITY ON HIS FASTBALL

4rth starter, AT BEST!

co-dad w/AfDC of
Ishikawa, the Topps Rookie All Star Team's First baseman. Does he get a chance in 2010?

by kennv on Dec 8, 2009 9:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Problem is being a long way off does diminish their trade value…

by Missing Barry on Dec 8, 2009 10:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Crazy that the Marlins didn’t do this. If we can get this for Cain we take it and RUN.

Imagine offering Posey and Bumgarner… thats the equivalent offer from the Giants.

Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.

by MonkeyChow on Dec 8, 2009 10:05 PM PST reply actions  

Matt Cain, while a fine man and pitcher, is not as good as Josh Johnson

although I suppose health might make up the difference. Eh, probably not.

More importantly, though, this rumor has apparently been deep-sixed.

O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?

by PaulThomas on Dec 8, 2009 10:05 PM PST reply actions  

It'd say they're about even

Cain has been more consistent, while Johnson has had some better seasons. They both have somewhat similar career strikeout rates and WHIPs and career ERA+ of 126.

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory

by Natto on Dec 8, 2009 10:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Considering Johnson barely cleared 100 IP in 07-08 and Cain threw like 400 IP in those two years, I would say health makes a big difference.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 8, 2009 10:37 PM PST up reply actions  

that's 100 IP TOTAL from 07-08, obviously

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 8, 2009 10:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Tommy John surgery will do that to you. However there is risk with any pitcher. Johnson already went through his injury and came back from it. Cain is just as likely to get one as Johnson given his considerable work load since coming to the majors.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 8, 2009 10:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Hmmm, I do wonder if there’s been any substantial attempts to look at how pitchers fare after Tommy John – both in performance and in health, relative to the average pitcher…

by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 7:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Some people actually gain MPH

say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan

by say hey nation on Dec 9, 2009 7:10 AM PST up reply actions  

I had the same thought when I read that rumor

but I have a hard time believing the Marlins really turned that down

Thing A

by sam23 on Dec 8, 2009 10:19 PM PST reply actions  

Rather trade Timmy for a bevy of high grade prospects/ML talent.

Cain can still be an “ace” for the Giants going forward and he’s going to cost you a lot less to keep him. Anyone else wary of signing Lincecum to a huge contract in a few years? I mean he’s going to command way more than CC or Johan were given.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 8, 2009 10:20 PM PST reply actions  

Absolutely

Especially having the contract of Zito along with the 8 digit contract Lincecum has earned.

by wilriv21 on Dec 8, 2009 10:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Not to mention you can get double the return that Cain could bring you. You could literally get yourself a real team. And then some.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 8, 2009 10:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Only a few teams would be able to afford to make this deal. SF would have few trading partners to match up

by wilriv21 on Dec 8, 2009 10:41 PM PST up reply actions  

I dunno how many teams out there will be willing to give up three super elite prospects plus then pay Lincecum’s supposed salaries for the next four years.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 8, 2009 10:44 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m sure a team would do it. Boston for one. They’re interested in King Felix, why wouldn’t they be interested in Timmy?

You can be assured the Yanks would be interested too. Play off the greediness of the rich.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 8, 2009 10:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure they're interested in Felix

But if they had the wherewithal to actually pay for him, he’d have been in Boston last season.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Dec 8, 2009 10:49 PM PST up reply actions  

That’s assuming that the Mariners are even willing to trade Hernandez.

People seem to think that if he was legitimately available that the Red Sox would be the team to acquire him.

I would love to dangle Tim and see what teams would offer up.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 8, 2009 10:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m sure the Yankees and Red Sox would be interested. Do they actually have the talent in prospects to make it worthwhile for us? Their systems aren’t necessarily thin but talking about three flat out elite prospects is a tall order for nearly every system.

All this said, I don’t think there’s any chance Timmy gets traded and I don’t think I would want to do it anyway.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 8, 2009 10:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Red Sox have the system for sure.

Yankees would have to offer ML talent in addition to someone like Montero.

Not sure why you wouldn’t want to get 5 or 6 legit talents for the price of one. Lincecum is going to be expensive for this team going forward.

It’s too bad that the Rangers have an issue with ownership since they would make a nice trade partner. They’d finally get a legit ace, and we could get tons of talent in return.

I agree it won’t ever happen, but neither will Cain to Texas for Feliz and Smoak. But if you’re going to get that preposterous you might as well be open to the idea of trading Lincecum and getting even more talent that can help your team now and 5-6 + years into the future.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 8, 2009 11:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Not sure why you wouldn’t want to get 5 or 6 legit talents for the price of one. Lincecum is going to be expensive for this team going forward.

The last part is exactly the reason why you won’t get the kind of haul specified in the first sentence.

Lethargy
It has me

by dregarx on Dec 8, 2009 11:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Don’t agree. The teams that can afford him won’t have a problem giving up the talent.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 8, 2009 11:37 PM PST up reply actions  

They wouldn’t give it up for Johan.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 12:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Actually they were willing, but the Twins GM balked and tried to get more. Johan was also older and people were predicting he was close to breaking down.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 9, 2009 12:10 AM PST up reply actions  

I’m sorry, I don’t remember any rumored packages for Johan including 5-6 top prospects.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 7:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Four years of team control doesn’t mean much if they’re going to cost about as much as Johan’s extension did.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 6:55 AM PST up reply actions  

The difference is that Timmy will be a arb player for 4 years. You don’t have to guarantee him much 7/165 right now, you can wait. With Johan the Mets had to guarantee him a gazillion dollars up front.

Plus I think its prudent for the Rangers to trade for someone like Timmy b/c The Ballpark at Arlington is like the Bizarro ATT, a place pitchers won’t sign.

say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan

by say hey nation on Dec 9, 2009 7:07 AM PST up reply actions  

No, you don’t have to guarantee him quite that much yet but you’re still going to have to pay him a lot of dough. And maybe teams would be willing to trade for Tim for those 4 years, even if they’re going to be way more expensive than arb years should be. But they’re not going to give up 5-6 plays for the right to do it.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 7:14 AM PST up reply actions  

5-6 is high but I think we can get 2 solid and 1 good prospect at the least. The could also agree to pay 1/2 his 1st year salary.

say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan

by say hey nation on Dec 9, 2009 7:17 AM PST up reply actions  

I think we could do that, but I don’t think it’d be worth it for us.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 7:19 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree. The problem with trading Tim is that you do so under the assumption that you can get the players to win now in return. Elite, ML-ready prospects rarely get traded, let alone multiple in the same deal. On top of that, the extra dollars available for free agency wouldn’t be near enough to replace or upgrade on Tim’s production.

Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Dec 9, 2009 7:27 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree. I just don’t think his salary will inhibit the Giants in getting a return.

say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan

by say hey nation on Dec 9, 2009 7:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Not as much talent as you think. He’s no longer insane production compared to price, merely excellent (and that’s no guarantee at all).

Lethargy
It has me

by dregarx on Dec 9, 2009 12:17 AM PST up reply actions  

That’s bullshit. He’s the best pitcher in the majors by a fair margin. He’s going to get a pay raise yes, but he’s still very young and a team trading for him could lock him up long term. Even if Lincecum gets 15 million next year he’s still going to be a bargain given his performance on the mound. Fangraphs has him at 37 million for crying out loud.

This was written in July:

#9: Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco: 5.3 WAR

501 career innings, 2.76 career FIP. He’s on his way to a second straight Cy Young award and should destroy the previous record for first year arbitration eligible pitcher salary if the Giants can’t lock him up long term this winter, even as a super-two. He’s improved his previously poor command to the point that it’s hardly an issue anymore, and his strikeout rate has actually risen from his rookie season despite a two mph drop in fastball velocity. The inherent risk with all pitchers keeps him below the eight premium bats ahead of him, but he’d command more in trade than any pitcher on earth.

Hard to agree with that if he was actually put on the open trade market.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 9, 2009 12:33 AM PST up reply actions  

he’d command more in trade than any pitcher on earth.

Sure. But no player commands 6 players in a combination of elite (A/A-/B+) prospects and ML tested “legit” players, much less a pitcher.

He’s on his way to a second straight Cy Young award and should destroy the previous record for first year arbitration eligible pitcher salary

As you noted, the information provided was written in July, before this took place, and thus is based upon a lower level of salary.

Lethargy
It has me

by dregarx on Dec 9, 2009 12:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Everyone already knew he was going to be getting a huge salary increase due to his Super-Two status though.

You can still get 2 elite prospects plus a few other good solid players for Lincecum. Just look at what was being offered out there for 1 1/2 years of Halladay last deadline. Red Sox offered up Westmoreland, Bowden and Buchholz.

That’s 3 B players right there. Westmoreland is probably a B+ at this point. The Giants could get that plus more for Lincecum. 2 ML starters, a very very good CF prospect, and probably another player or two on top of that.

Not that it would ever happen, but it’s total bullshit that it’s impossible for them to get a great package back for Lincecum.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 9, 2009 1:37 AM PST up reply actions  

They knew he was going to get a huge salary increase, because he was making $400K at the time and going up to an assumed $10 mil or so from that is a huge increase. Lincecum at $10-13-16-19 or something for his arb years is still a deal. Lincecum at (being somewhat conservative) $15-18-20-23 for his arb years, not quite so much.

Now, if he goes through arb and ends up not making too much money, then maybe his trade value will go back to being pretty good. But right now, with the uncertainty, I don’t think it would be.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 6:58 AM PST up reply actions  

It would be cool if you would toss “bullshit” out as the word you continue to use to describe my statement.

I said:

Not as much talent as you think.

In reference to your statement:
Not sure why you wouldn’t want to get 5 or 6 legit talents for the price of one.

Just if we were to list the 5-6 legit talents from the relevant organizations that have been bandied about in trade rumors (ie, have trade value)…

Boston: Westmoreland, Buchholz, Bowden, Ellsbury, Bard, Hagadone
New York: Hughes, Montero, Cano, Cabrera, Swisher
Texas: Smoak, Feliz, Cruz, Young, Hunter

Here’s one that’ll be easier to analyze (for me, as I don’t follow the Bos/NY prospects and rosters much). Suppose the Giants didn’t have Timmy and wanted to trade 5-6 legit players for him. That list would look like this:

San Francisco: Posey, Bumgarner, Neal, Cain, Sanchez, Wilson

These are the kind of hauls that decimate a team’s long-term outlook.
I wouldn’t call a refutation of an assertion that a team would pay this kind of package to get Lincecum “bullshit”.

Lethargy
It has me

by dregarx on Dec 9, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

At least there’s one positive with Lincecum’s skyrocketing salary:

"I can’t tell you the last time a team asked (about him)," Sabean said.

To borrow from econ jargon, Timmy’s nominal trade value may be astronomical but his real trade value is much, much lower. As good as he is, teams aren’t interested in giving up a ton of players to acquire him AND then having to pay his huge salary. Just look at the trouble Toronto is having with Roy Halladay.

If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.

by esseffgeez on Dec 9, 2009 5:16 AM PST up reply actions  

this is why Josh Johnson needs to be be traded NOW.

Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW

by jctGamer on Dec 9, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions  

I don’t get why in the other topic you were advocating trading prospects because they weren’t sure things and now in here you want to trade a sure thing for prospects because… I don’t know?

And there’s no way we’re going to get 5-6 legit talents for Lincecum. The Yankees and Red Sox can pay him but they aren’t going to pay a premium price to do so. Or did I miss where they were willing to break the bank for previous aces who went on the trade market? (And Lincecum’s service time is irrelevant now when you consider how much he’s likely going to cost.)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 12:01 AM PST up reply actions  

One, I don’t believe in the Giants ability to develop positional talent.

Two, Lincecum is a sure thing to be sure but he’s also going to cost a considerable amount of money and I’m just not sure the Giants can afford him long-term given their spending habits. Plus giving a pitcher a long-term deal is a pretty risky proposition for a team of our budget constraints. For the Yankees or Red Sox it’s not nearly as big of a deal.

Both teams are considered in on Halladay currently. The Red Sox have been trying to gauge interest for Felix. Both teams were trying to get Johan before Bill Smith fucked up the negotiations. Red Sox have already previously traded for Beckett.

I was advocating trading for Adrian Gonzalez in another topic because he’s an elite hitter and defender that would make this team considerably better. Just as trading Lincecum in a vaccum would make the Giants considerably better. They could get talented prospects AND likely get young controllable pitching talent to replace him in the rotation. The money they would save would help them out considerably too.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 9, 2009 12:19 AM PST up reply actions  

You don’t think they’d fuck up any positional talent they get in a trade? I mean, a lot of the issues with the Giants positional talent is that they aren’t willing to give them the time to adjust to the majors once they’re called up. How would players they trade for be much different?

The Yankees or Red Sox could certainly sign Lincecum long-term but I still don’t see where they’re going to give up 5-6 really good prospects in order to do so. I mean 5-6??? That is a ton. Dan Haren got that, but he was signed to a borderline criminal deal for a good chunk of time.

They were trying to trade for Johan – and they weren’t willing to give up any more than 2 pretty good prospects for him. If I recall correctly, the packages were built around like one elite prospect and the teams weren’t really willing to move beyond that. The Red Sox weren’t, for example, willing to include Ellsbury. Nor were the Yankees willing to include Chamberlain.

And then, of course, because teams weren’t willing to include all that much in the way of elite talent, he ended up getting traded for one good but supremely flawed prospect (who the Twins proceeded to fuck up by keeping him in the majors when he wasn’t ready) and spare parts.

I think we’d do better than that for Lincecum, but I really don’t think we’d do so well that we could restock our entire major league team through a single trade.

As I’ve said, I think the four years are irrelevant as he’s going to be getting FA money or near it pretty soon anyway.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 9, 2009 7:05 AM PST up reply actions  

regarding your first paragraph: that’s true of prospects, but even Bochy wouldn’t sit Adrian Gonzalez if he went 1-for-25 to start the season. Acquiring young prospects could, indeed, be problematical given who’s in charge, but acquiring Adrian wouldn’t be.

Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo.

by Lyle on Dec 9, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions  

The Giants haven’t developed a single positional player other than Pablo in like 12 years who actually was a legitimate prospect.

When you’re breaking in at 25 or 26 you kinda suck prospect wise. Guys like Bowker, Nate, Linden, Lewis, Feliz etc are shit.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 10, 2009 2:18 AM PST up reply actions  

One of them has Granderson…

say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan

by say hey nation on Dec 9, 2009 6:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Why would someone rather have Johnson over Cain? Cain is younger and has pitched essentially 200 innings (190 in the first of them) the last 4 years, while last year was the first time Johnson pitched 200, or was even within 40 of 200. Cain’s durability, track record, and age make him easily more valuable than JJ.

by kingofthacove on Dec 8, 2009 10:22 PM PST reply actions  

A young, slugging first baseman and a flame throwing top of the rotation pitcher for Cain?

Sounds like a good deal to me…

by crazedcrustacean on Dec 8, 2009 10:32 PM PST reply actions  

It’s an interesting idea but I don’t think it’s actually realistic. I’m glad to hear the original rumor was debunked, because it seemed crazy from the Rangers perspective.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster

by jponry on Dec 8, 2009 10:38 PM PST reply actions  

That’s all this part of the year is about. Crazy rumors. Now and July.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 8, 2009 10:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Sadly, if we had the chance to get Smoak and Feliz for Cain,

I’d do that deal, as the Rangers are one of the only teams in MLB with a deep enough farm system to even make these kind of offers to other teams, if in fact Florida was presented with that offer.

That being said, I agree with others and would go (again sadly) one step further, and send Timmy to Texas instead if I could get back Cruz as well. There’s no doubt Timmy’s possible arb award and pressure on the Giants’ payroll has altered Sabean’s thinking this week at the meetings, and it will be an annual problem for them at a time Sabean (and Magowan) screwed this team over with the Rowand and Zito deals and the depleted farm system during the Bonds era. Filling three needs at one time (OF, 1B, and starting pitcher) with controllable A-List talent makes sense, as long as Bowtie-with-Cash insists on keeping the payroll at $90 million.

I can see why the Rangers would do the deal for Cain, as he is a comparatively cheap ace solution for them. But given ownership’s desire to get additional financial partners right now in Arlington, would they think adding Timmy as a controllable ace but at $15-22 million per year over the next several years pencils out for them?

Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.

by Al Rosen on Dec 9, 2009 6:49 AM PST reply actions  

That rumor can not be true. Marlins would have jumped all over that. I also doubt the Rangers would offer those two for Cain.

Not sure what to do about my screen name at this point...

by AngelWillSaveUs on Dec 9, 2009 8:13 AM PST reply actions  

Matt Cain is the kind of workhorse pitcher Nolan Ryan loves

by wilriv21 on Dec 9, 2009 8:27 AM PST reply actions  

The Rangers have denied this rumor.

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Dec 9, 2009 8:28 AM PST reply actions  

I’d do that in a second, but yes, Josh Johnson > Matt Cain

by microwave donut on Dec 9, 2009 10:36 AM PST reply actions  

Yea i wouldn’t say that cain is better than johnson lol.

by HOLDEMUPGoldenStateOfOppression on Dec 9, 2009 10:57 AM PST reply actions  

Either trade- for Johnson or Cain- seems like it would be a ridiculously stupid move by Texas. I get the feeling Cain would struggle big time in Arlington, where fly-ball pitchers tend to have a hard time. I don’t see why the Rangers would even consider trading Feliz for another young pitcher

"Any time I watch a game on television, I have to turn the commentators off. They say 'he's playing well' and I'm thinking 'no, he's not.' My advice to anyone is don't listen to the experts, just watch the game and gather your own opinion."
-Roy Keane

by Useful_Idiot on Dec 9, 2009 11:30 AM PST reply actions  

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