Insane Ramblings of a Giants Fan
by mark30perq3 on Dec 5, 2009 1:33 PM PST
54 comments
#10) Offered a 1 year, highly incentivized contract to SP Brad Penny with a deadline for accepting of November 25. Offered a 1 year contract with an option for a second year to IF Juan Uribe. Bother players declined the contract offers.
Quote to note: "At this time I'm not sure there will be further discussion."
Sabean also said he would be patient in allowing the market to develop. The Giants also will not sign any Type A free agents because Sabean does not want to part with the Giant's #1 draft choice.
Give credit where credit is due. In the past, Sabean jumped into the free agent market before allowing the market to develop and before exploring trade opportunities. This led to a ton of over-paying and the loss of far too many draft picks (Michael Tucker, Omar Vizquel, Mike Matheny, Armando Benitez, Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts, Matt Morris...these are just a few of the free agents that Sabean overpaid and threw away draft picks for). However, since 2006, Sabean has spent more resources on developing the farm system and he's used the arbitration process to acquire additional draft picks, particularly in 2007 when the Giants had 6 first round and sandwich round choices for letting Jason Schmidt, Moises Alou and Mike Stanton leave. That, coupled with increased spending in Latin America and lower finishes in the standings have allowed the Giants to build one of the top 5 farm systems in all of baseball.
The Giants farm system has already paid dividends in recent years producing ace pitcher Tim Lincecum, star 3B Pablo Sandoval and All-Stars Matt Cain and Brian Wilson to name a few. The farm system also allowed Sabean to trade for Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko, although the jury is still out in both cases. More help is on the way in Posey, Bumgarner, SS Brandon Crawford, 1B/OF Thomas Neal, LHP Dan Runzler and 2009 #6 overall pick RHP Zach Wheeler.
Not only is Sabean unwilling to jump into the market too early this winter and waste draft picks, he's also been very shrewd in dealing with our own free agents. The offers made to Uribe and Penny must not have been typical Brian Sabean reaches. Both players were acquired on the cheap quite smartly by Sabean (Uribe on a minor league deal and Penny via waivers) and put in roles that allowed them to flourish (a utility role for Uribe led to a career year; being the #5 starter in a great rotation, pitcher's park and the weaker league made Penny look golden). The reality is that Uribe hit a career high .289 mostly due to luck on balls in play (.330 vs. .290 career, an unsustainable 4% increase). He has a career .298 OBP and .257 BA; that's not worth more than the $1 million he made last year. Penny looked great for SF, but he was below average in Boston and we shouldn't get too carried with a 6 start sample size especially when he was only striking out 4.32 per 9.
The big news of the day were the following paraphrased quotes from Sabean on top prospect Buster Posey, "By comparison to others, he’s caught very little, including guys who become full-time catchers...It’s minuscule compared to people who had a lot more than that and got to the big leagues...Our overall conclusion from a baseball standpoint is (that) nobody thinks he’s ready to catch 100-plus games in the big leagues...We know he’s going to hit, but if for some reason he does not, you wouldn’t want to be in that position to send him back or put that kind of pressure on him....There’s no guarantees we can get the type of person we want and we have to be resourceful with (Posey as) a Plan B."
In Better Know a Giant Part 25, I argued that Posey should start the season in AAA, so I agree with Sabean that the smart thing to do is to acquire someone else to catch for at least the 1st half of next season. However, my disagreements are three-fold with the above logic. First, there is no arbitrary number of games that anyone needs to play in the minor leagues before they are ready. This is a cliche that prevents real analysis. Secondly, Sabean said he believes Posey will hit, but that the rigors of catching for a full-season and the defensive demands will be too much. I think Sabean highly over-values the importance of defensive catching here. I am not saying it has no value, but if Posey can hit major league pitching, he should play. And finally, the notion that Posey is plan B if they cannot find a better option is a terrible plan. That basically means if Sabean is too incompetent to find a one-year alternative, he'll throw Posey to the wolves regardless of whether or not he's ready. This happened with Jonathan Sanchez in 2006 when he was thrown into the bull-pen at age 23 after just 2 minor league seasons. His inconsistencies have had a lot to do with this blatant mismanagement.
In closing, the best solution for Posey is for him to start at AA or AAA and to come up when its clear that he cannot gain anything else from dominating the minor leagues (i.e. the way Lincecum, Cain and Sandoval were handled and the opposite of the way Sanchez was handled). In the meantime, a short-term solution needs to be acquired via trade or free agency. Posey should not be rushed just because Sabean couldn't find an alternative. Patience with our best asset will serve us well in the long run. Throwing him into the fire opening day, only to find he's not ready, could do irreversible damage.
More lengthy diatribes here:
http://betterknowagiant.blogspot.com/
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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How did you come to that conclusion?
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 5, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions
nah needs more vrrroooom vrrrrooooooom
There are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq Chuck Norris lives in Texas
In one sentence you included the word “shrewd” with the word “Sabean.” Yet another sentence had the word “smart” with the same “Sabean” word. That’s where you went wrong with your diatribe. It’s funny to me that people think that this new patient Sabean is going to make better signings than the old one who “jumped into the market too quickly.” By the way, jumping Sabean grabbed Jeremy Affeldt last year while the other GM’s were still plotting their strategies.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
By the way, jumping Sabean grabbed Jeremy Affeldt last year while the other GM’s were still plotting their strategies
Ok, but are you happy with 13 mil to Renteria and Affeldt this season? I’d happily give up Affeldt if it meant dumping Renteria. Just because the strategy happened to land us one good player on a reasonable (but not fantastic) contract doesn’t mean it was a good strategy.
Thing A
you can’t combine the two. He made a good signing and he made a bad signing. If he waits a month or two to make his decisions this time, you don’t think it’s possible he does the same thing? Just because he waits he’ll only make great moves? I think it’s more likely the opposite occurs, where players that could have helped the team gets snapped up by other teams, and he’s left with signing garbage.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
Affeldt was 64th in Fielding Independent Pitching among relievers with 40+ innings. K-Rate was 85th. Ground ball rate was great, but that sub-2 ERA is not repeatable. It was a very good signing, but not as great as that 1.73 ERA looks.
Ok. I just don’t share your optimism over Sabean. “Patience” to me only means that the next Edgar Renteria will cost a little less than the last Edgar Renteria. Unfortunately, he’ll still play like the original Edgar Renteria.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
you can’t combine the two
On really? Why can’t I? We’re talking about the early decisions he made last year before market values were determined. The fact is he went out and dropped about 26 mil and came back with Affeldt and Renteria. Do I think its possible he makes the same kind of mistakes later? Yea, sure its entirely possible, but the point is I’d much rather miss out on an Affeldt signing and allow Sabean to get a better idea of what the market looks like than have him jump right in blindly. Looking at past moves I don’t really see any justification for being afraid that we’re gonna miss out on somebody who gets snapped up early. This is why including the Renteria signing with the Affeldt signing makes sense; sure it would’ve sucked to not get Affeldt, but I would’ve preferred to not get him than get him AND Renteria early. After seeing how the FA market played out last year, I find it hard to believe that Renteria would’ve cost as much in Feb. as he did in Dec. You can’t even be sure that it wouldn’t have been possible to get Affeldt for cheaper, I really doubt he would’ve gotten a whole lot more expensive as the free agency period went on.
Thing A
He made a good signing and he made a bad signing
That’s also an oversimplification. The bad signing was a lot more bad than the good signing was good.
Thing A
I’m not arguing with you here. The Renteria signing was one of the worst of the offseason, and even when it was made it was panned. It got even worse as the bargains started appearing late in the offseason, and needless to say it became worse and worse when he actually started to play. That being said, Renteria was a bad signing at ANY price, so even if they saved money later in the offseason and signed him in January, the team record would have been the same. The only question here is whether they could have gotten him on a one year deal if they had waited, and it certainly appeared early that other teams were interested in him in multi year deals, but not at the price the Giants’ offered. I’m just saying there’s something to be said for identifying your needs quickly and pouncing while there are still 200 or so free agents out there on the market, rather than waiting and see which FA’s are cheap and fall through the cracks. Last year Sabean saw the flaw in the bullpen, acted quickly and solved the problem, much in the way the Braves chose to do the same thing these past couple of weeks. Is it about getting the best players for your teams, or is it about finding sales? I’d rather Sabean shop at Bloomingdale’s for what he needs rather than Walmart.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
ANTI BIAS HATRED!!!
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Nobody puts Bengie in a corner!
by natteringnabob on Dec 5, 2009 3:22 PM PST up reply actions
So I'm a little confused
sabes said Buster will start in AAA, you agree with it, yet you’re mad? Is it becuase he had to throw in a bunch of candy coated bullshit for those who’ve heard of Buster Posey, but really don’t have a grasp on weather or not he’s ready?
Haven’t we all learned that 95% of what ANY GM says during a press conference is crap meant for the casual fan?
not mad
I just thought some of the explanation was faulty. I took the quotes literally, though you are probably right that his quotes are ramblings not to be seriously considered.
it is not how soon or how late you make your deal.
The earlier in the off season, the more options are available. When less options are available, the price could come down, as all the better options are taken, so I don’t care when in the signing season Sabes makes his deal, I just want the deal to be reasonable so when a really good option comes along at sometimes, we can afford him.
Rx’d!
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
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Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 5, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions
Overall, I think the approach Sabean outlines
in the two recent pieces by Shea and Baggarly looks good compared to his behavior in recent years. Yet we’re now looking at going into next season with less offense coming out of the catcher spot, and hoping to offset it with a full-year’s of better production from SS and 2B. Which means that if Renteria and Sanchez have decent years to offset mediocre numbers from a rent-a-catcher, then we’re no further ahead than last season.
Under this scenario it will still come down to what they do at 1B and a corner outfield position. But do they have the money to actually improve both positions, or just one of them? The talk about letting MadBum be the #5 is an indication that they feel going cheap with him is better than spending money they don’t have for a #5. A rent-a-catcher will still cost $2-3 million in 2010, and after the arb increases for Lincecum, Wilson, and Jonathan, that may only leave $5-8 million, which rules out any real help for the outfield.
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
Yet we’re now looking at going into next season with less offense coming out of the catcher spot
We are? How do you define offense?
Thing A
I actually agree. As bad as Bengie Molina was, there’s a couple of free agent catchers out there who would be worse than him. Put Posey in there and the offense would instantly improve, but we now see that’s not Sabean’s plan. If our Opening Day catcher in 2010 is washed up Pudge Rodriguez, there’s a good chance that the 2010 offense will be worse than the 2009 offense. Bengie gave us 20 homeruns and nothing else, Pudge will give you 5 homeruns and nothing else. The one bright side though, is that the worse the catcher Sabean signs is, the faster they bring up Buster.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
none of those catchers
will bat cleanup, and therefore are better.
Not disagreeing with your analysis of the offensive offense trend, though.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Nobody puts Bengie in a corner!
by natteringnabob on Dec 6, 2009 7:18 AM PST up reply actions
the chances of finding
a better overall catcher than bengie molina is greater than finiding a worse overall catcher than bengie molina
No
Molina is a good catcher. He’s just not a cleanup guy. If you can get 20 dingerz out of your C, even with a .300 OBP, that’s a good catcher. Most catchers hit like shit. If he were hitting sixth or seventh (where OBP is less significant), and we had a legitimate cleanup hitter, there’d be a lot less anti-Bengie sentiment. Besides, other teams are loathe to trade good catchers because it’s such a hard position to fill, so to acquire one in a trade would cost a lot, and to get one as a FA would mean outbidding a lot of teams. Bengie’ll probably get at least a two year deal as a 35 year old who can’t run, just because he’s a catcher.
Pablo Sandoval
says you’re right…
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Nobody puts Bengie in a corner!
by natteringnabob on Dec 7, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
The difference is Pablo is a good hitter, period. Posey is a good hitter, for a catcher.
by Missing Barry on Dec 7, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
Do you know how many C’s outhit Bengie Molina last year? 24*. Almost every single team in the league managed to find a C that was a better hitter than Bengie Molina. You are correct that most catchers hit like shit. Unfortunately, Bengie Molina hits worse than shit. It should not be too difficult to find a C that can match, or beat, Bengie’s production last year.
*Min 200 PA’s.
by Missing Barry on Dec 7, 2009 7:40 AM PST up reply actions
Matt Murton
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 5, 2009 5:52 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not going to comment on whether last year’s signings were good or bad, but I would rather slightly overpay for a player I wanted then wait for the market and possibly lose that player.
by GiantFaninDodgerLand on Dec 5, 2009 7:00 PM PST reply actions
I enjoyed reading this and it made some good points.
I am not one to flatly disregard anyone’s opinion. Yet, I think that in the case of Sabean, his shortcomings are well documented enough that the truth of him being awful at the job have long deserted the realm of opinion and are now firmly ensconced in the camp of truth.
In the end, any Fan Post that tries to make the argument that Sabean has somehow become a better GM (or is a good GM, or slightly passable GM), is flawed and – put bluntly – BS.
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
“In the end, any Fan Post that tries to make the argument that Sabean has somehow become a better GM (or is a good GM, or slightly passable GM), is flawed and – put bluntly – BS.”
Yes.
Because no one can get better at their job.
No one.
You opened my eyes.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Dec 8, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
While true, think of Sabean in baseball player terms. He got off to a quick start, maintained steady production, and is now been in the game long enough that he’s past the point where he’s going to get better – he’s likely to get worse, and the evidence strongly points to the fact that he really isn’t the player he used to be. In other words, Brian Sabean the GM is the perfect Brian Sabean player, well past his prime, not very good, and just not nearly the player he once was….
by Missing Barry on Dec 8, 2009 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
I’m pretty sure it doesn’t work that way. Funny analogy, though.
I do find it interesting, however, whenever Sabean does something that helps the Giants’ he’s lucky, when it hurts he’s stupid.
Yeah I wasn’t being serious, obvious there’s no real aging effect sapping a GM of their physical abilities. There is a serious point hidden in there though – given how long Sabean has been doing this (longest tenured GM in baseball), and given his stubborn lack of change up to this point, especially over the last 3-4 years, I think it’s incredibly likely that Sabean has not, and will not, improve substantially as a GM…
by Missing Barry on Dec 8, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions
Humm…I know we’ve had this discussion before, but I do think he’s changed a lot in the last 3 to 4 years. The farm system is rated highly, and is graduating a lot of difference makers to the major league level. Granted, 9/10th of them a pitchers, but still. Lincecum, Cain, Romo, Wilson, and of course Sandoval isn’t a bad add to a 25-man roster in three seasons. Am I mystified by a lot of the moves? Of course. The reason for Bocock still being on the 40-man seems strange, but I will admit I don’t have all the “inside” information that real FO types have.
I’ll give you the farm system is a fair point, it has been more productive recently, and we definitely aren’t intentionally giving up high draft picks anymore. In terms of player valuation, though, I just don’t see any evidence Sabean has figured things out. Bengie batting 4th, Velez playing as often as he did, Lewis on the bench for lesser players, still signing old washed up vets (Renteria, for instance)….
by Missing Barry on Dec 9, 2009 6:50 AM PST up reply actions
I keep reading the title of this as ‘The Inane Ramblings of a Giants Fan’.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Dec 6, 2009 11:36 AM PST reply actions
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