McCovey Chronicles Community Prospect List #6
by marcello on Dec 4, 2009 11:33 AM PST
324 comments
Please do not rec these, we don't want to have them cluttering up the recommended fanposts. Thanks
Roger Kieschnick with the win, but it was much closer than past polls. I felt he had enough of a lead to call it, especially with the votes slowing down as much as they had. Here is our list so far:
- Buster Posey
- Madison Bumgarner
- Thomas Neal
- Zack Wheeler
- Roger Kieschnick
For #6, we have the following options:
Tommy Joseph
Each player should have a link to Baseball Cube in their first name and a link to First Inning in their last name if they are available. The poll will close Sunday at noon, unless it's clear enough to call, then it will be Saturday around noon.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Tools, tools, tools
Voted for RafRod last time, so I’ll do it again.
Innocent until proven guilty...
by AngelWillSaveUs on Dec 4, 2009 11:46 AM PST reply actions
Yup
I’m stuck on Crawford for now, but I want to start voting for other guys. It’s going to be really annoying when Runzler wins this.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I like Runzler, its just that he wouldn’t even have votes if BA didn’t have him in the top 10
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
I like Runzler too
I think he’s a good choice around #10-#12, but this is too high a rank for a relief pitcher in a good system.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
I agree.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
I agree.
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
To harken back somewhat to Cookyman’s line of reasoning, my problem with RafRod is that even the young, string-bean version of him projects only as a right-fielder. Usually guys like that should be playing CF. If he fills out, his defensive value would probably only deteriorate further.
Whereas, with Tommy Joseph, you have a more developed bat with already existing DINGERZ who may yet stay at Catcher, but if he doesn’t, he gets pushed to a similar defensive value to RafRod.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
That’s pretty much contrary to what I’ve read about the two. There’s no speculation that Rodriguez will have to move off of RF, but pretty much everyone, including the Giants, acknowledge that Joseph will most likely end up at 1B.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
It’s based on historical patterns. Again, as Cookyman pointed out in the previous thread, the plus defensive RFs in the bigs are usually CFers in the minors.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Joseph
Higher ceiling than Crawford or Runzler, and while Rodriguez has potential for power, Joseph looks much closer to actually hitting for power.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Yeah, it looks like Rodriguez potential for power is going to involve them basically building a swing for him from the ground up, and while they’re doing that he’s still going to be growing, complicating the issue much further. Joseph already has a plus power swing. He’s my guy.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I voted for Joseph due to the reasons above. I think I’ll go Rafrod at 7, but I’m still considering Crawford.
by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Dec 4, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
You know
Runzler has gotten a lot of votes, but I don’t recall many (if any) arguments in favor of listing him this high. Defend yourselves, Runzlovers!
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
I was just thinking the same thing
He’s going to win with 2 pro-Runzler comments in the entire fanpost.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
The ame thing happened last year with Pucetas, as I recall. But he didn’t finish this high.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
same
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
You mean POO-cetas?
I guess I can start it off for next season
RUNSler :-(
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Good point. I only used Runzler as a piece of my argument when explaining why I was uneasy rating Wheeler so high. I don’t plan on actually voting for the guy for a while.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
I voted for Runzler. He impressed me this year.
"Being a McCoven is like being a member of the Green party. It’s powerlessness is part of the appeal." - oldjacket
Is it because you actually saw him against major league competition, while all these other guys are nebulous fantasies of statistical potential? Is that really what the Runzler love comes down to mostly?
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I voted for Runzler too, and yeah. That and the fact that Joseph hasn’t played yet, Crawford hasn’t hit above A+, Kieschnick’s numbers don’t impress me for a 22 year old OF in high-A, and RafRod is still too young for him to be projectible. Runzler’s been effective at all levels (though admittedly in SSS) and closers are overvalued on the market, so if he lets us trade Wilson we can get something good.
closers are overvalued on the market
Evidence?
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Also Cordero’s contract, K-Rod’s contract, Rivera’s contract, Wagner’s contract, Lidge’s contract, Nathan’s contract, all of which are $10M+ per year. According to Fangraphs’s WAR database, none of those guys were worth that much last year, and no one was worth more than Broxton’s $13M (Rivera was paid $15M). So it stands to reason that if teams will overpay for FA closers then they’ll overpay in trades for cheaper closers.
None of those are trades
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
So it stands to reason that if teams will overpay for FA closers then they’ll overpay in trades for cheaper closers.
The point is that prominent closers are paid more than they’re worth, so the same should be true of a Wilson deal.
I wanted to look at some closer trades, but they don’t happen very often. Street was part of a package, so I don’t know what to do with that, and I can’t think of any other great closer who was traded.
I was promised lasagna.
I had a similar problem. But IMO there’s no reason why closers shouldn’t be overvalued in a trade if they’re overvalued as FAs.
The Dodgers traded Josh Bell and Steve Johnson both of whom are solid prospects, for George Sherill last year.
The Red Sox traded Chris Carter and Eddie Lora to the Mets for Billy Wagner. Carter’s a decent 1B/OF, and Lora hasn’t really done anything yet, although that trade was as much about salary relief and getting something as it was about getting something good.
The Dodgers are retarded when it comes to trades. They’ve traded away Carlos Santana and Josh Bell in the last two years for an average 3B and a reliever.
That said, these trades do happen occasionally.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I don’t get it, I’ve seen this logic more than once, and it seems backwards to me:
- Closers are overrated.
- Runzler’s best case scenario is to be a good closer.
- Therefore, Runzler is…more valuable than people think?
If closers are overrated, doesn’t that mean that a closing prospect is also overrated? If we can trade Wilson for a better player, we should do it, but I don’t see how that affects Runzler’s prospect status.
I was promised lasagna.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
HAHA…never caught that one! And yes, that makes sense
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 12:54 PM PST up reply actions
Closers are more valuable than typical relievers because they work in high-pressure situations. The save is a largely overrated stat, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t important at all; pitching the ninth is more important than pitching the eighth or seventh because any runs given up have less time to be answered. So we need someone to pitch the ninth, and if Runzler can do that, it lets us trade Wilson (or Runzler) for more than he’s worth, which elevates his value.
The overrated bit depends on who’s doing the overrating. If closers weren’t typically overrated (which they are) then Runzler wouldn’t be as valuable a prospect to me. His value hinges not on my opinion of him but on others’ opinion of closers in general. So yes, a closing prospect is overrated in the market, just like a power hitter is overrated in the market, and therefore the same prospect is overrated in prospect lists. I like to include a player’s perceived value as well as his true value, because that matters in a trade.
If we were to offer Joseph and his dingerz, or a defensive specialist, even assuming each player held the exact same value, there’s a better than even chance they’d take the power hitter because power is overvalued. Same deal with relief pitchers, and I think that matters.
Closers are more valuable than typical relievers because they work in high-pressure situations. The save is a largely overrated stat, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t important at all; pitching the ninth is more important than pitching the eighth or seventh because any runs given up have less time to be answered. So we need someone to pitch the ninth, and if Runzler can do that, it lets us trade Wilson (or Runzler) for more than he’s worth, which elevates his value.
Closers are more valuable than typical relievers because teams put them in positions where they affect the game more, but that doesn’t make them better pitchers. The only difference between a good closer and a good reliever is how the team chooses to use them, and that can change at any time. Right now Wilson is a good closer, and Romo is a good middle reliever. If we trade Wilson and move Romo to closer, Romo will become a good closer. If, like you say, we can trade Wilson for more than he’s worth, we should do it, regardless of Runzler. It’s not like if we didn’t have Runzler, Wilson would be the only thing separating us from a black hole in the ninth inning.
I was promised lasagna.
I agree that Romo’s got closer stuff and he could definitely do the job. And I agree that Runzler isn’t the only thing that separates us from a ninth-inning black hole. All I’m saying is that the market overvalues closers and closer-type stuff (power fastball+consistent offspeed pitch), and therefore we should reflect that in Runzler’s value relative to other prospects, just like the fact that Joseph and Wheeler haven’t played pro ball yet should count against them.
I think it depends on where you put your perceived value and your true value. I put the market’s perceived value over a scout’s perceived value, because scouts can be wrong and the market kind of can’t be (even if the market thinks a player is valuable when he’s not, you can still get a good return, which makes him valuable in a weird way).
You make a good point about the trade value of relievers, but I’m still wary of voting for perceived value rather than true value. GMs seem to be getting smarter about such things these days.
By that logic, shouldn’t Wheeler and Joseph be a lot farther down this list, considering neither of them has played pro ball and Wheeler’s best competition so far has been a high school squad?
Me neither.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions
I think he’s saying that Wheeler and Joseph are all perceived value right now. I don’t necessarily agree with that logic.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
OK. Going off that logic.
Runzler has a max value of say $50.
While Wheeler and Joesph have a max value of at least $100 dollars (or more)
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions
A solid relief pitcher will get you back less than a solid hitting 1b or solid starter
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions
Yup, and right now Runzler is worth $30 and Wheeler and Joseph are worth $5. RIGHT NOW, Runzler is a more valuable prospect than either of them.
No, Runzler is a more valuable PLAYER.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
no I disagree with that. Their potential future upside should be part of their present value. Prices contain beliefs about the future.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Yes, their future upside should be part of their present value. So should their past performance. Wily Mo Pena had massive upside when he was signed, but five years later his performance destroyed that value. Prices also contain beliefs about the past.
Only so much as they inform the future. Nobody pays for the past that they don’t think projects to the future.
Really, every player’s value is a function of what they can deliver in the future times the probability of delivering it.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Why not? What have we seen Wheeler do? He certainly looks great, and his scouting report says he’ll be great, but what happens if he gets lit up continuously over a short minor league career? What happens if Joseph doesn’t hit at all? I get that Wheeler and Joseph have higher ceilings than Runzler, but they’ve done as little as possible to prove that they will be effective major leaguers at this point.
The point of prospects. You PROJECT what they will do. You also have to take into account role and role value.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
Absolutely. Except Wheeler’s projection is entirely based on his high school career (not exactly the toughest competition) and a scouting report. Joseph’s projection is entirely based on his college career (better than high school, but still not elite) and a scouting report. Those shouldn’t be ignored, and they’ve both obviously got a ton of potential, but the potential for a total trainwreck seems like it should matter.
By this logic, what happens if Runzler’s arm falls off?
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
The other thing
The whole argument rests on Runzler giving us value by allowing us to swindle another team in a trade for Brian Wilson.
But, really, even if it’s true that other teams overvalue Wilson, what are the chances we’ll trade him? It’s pretty unlikely in my opinion.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Or Runzler allows us to not give Brian Wilson a $10M contract when he hits free agency, thereby saving us $10M.
So is Brandon Crawford more valuable than Buster b/c he would replace a 9 mil salary and Buster is only replacing a 6 million dollar salary?
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:52 PM PST up reply actions
In some ways, yes (mostly concerning payroll flexibility). But the dropoff from Wilson to Runzler would likely be small, there would be a rise from Molina to Posey, and there’d be a significant drop from Renteria to Crawford, as bad as Rent is. Overall, no, because Posey is worth more than $3M more than Crawford.
There’s no reason we HAVE to overpay Wilson if we don’t have Runzler.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
No, but I’m pretty sure the Reds wouldn’t be sitting under Cordero’s fat $12M a year if they had a solid alternative in his contract year.
Sweet jesus
Focus on the player, and how good you think he’ll be, combined with how likely he is to be that good. Forget organizational bias, need, and stupidity and just focus on the player. Extremely basic example (everything, as usual, pulled out of jcb9’s ass):
Wheeler:
5% chance of becoming an 1
10% chance of becoming a 2
10% chance of becoming a 3
25% chance of becoming a 4/5
50% chance of bust
Runzler:
5% chance of becoming a relief ace/closer
10% chance of becoming a setup man
10% chance of becoming a middle reliever
25% chance of becoming a LOOGY
50% chance of bust
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
by marcello on Dec 4, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Green IT!
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 2:06 PM PST up reply actions
that seems pretty subjective
It seems to me that your argument is that Wheeler’s 25% chance at being a 4 is more valuable than Runzler’s 25% chance at being a LOOGY. am I correct in saying that?
if that’s the case, then isn’t there a general consensus that an everyday position player is more valuable than a starting pitcher, given similar abilities?
following that logic and your argument, wouldn’t we keep starting pitchers towards the bottom of the list and have positional players near the top?
…or am I missing your point entirely?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 4, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions
I agree
that’s why I’m saying the argument of, “I’m not putting Runzler at 6 because relief pitchers aren’t as valuable” is flawed because people have no problem putting pitching prospects higher on the list than hitting prospects.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 4, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions
The difference in potential value between relievers and starters is bigger than the difference in potential value between starters and position players.
Okay, I’m pulling that out of my ass, but it seems right!
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Yeah, that's debatable
I’m not even sure on which side of the fence I would fall. A closer will make an impact in the game every 2 or 3 games, while a starting pitcher will make an impact every 5th game.
However, a starter gives you 7 innings, as opposed to 1 by a closer.
Sigh. It’s Friday, not a good day for thinking.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 4, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
Don't think about games with pitchers
A good starter will give you 200-220 innings in a season. A good reliever will give you 60-70 innings. That difference alone should tell you why the highest WAR among pitchers was over 8, while the highest among relievers was 2.5.
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Rivera has had 3.2 and 3.1 WAR seasons.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Which is absolutely fantastic. I won’t deny that. However, the top starters, most years, have WARs in the 6s and 7s and it is incredibly rare for a reliever to make it to the 3s. Decent relievers are often below 1 in WAR.
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
WAR hurts there a bit though
because it’s context-insensitive. By and large (excepting 3 run “saves”) a typical closer inning is more valuable than a typical starter inning.
WPA might be a better measurement.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I don’t know about that. Any reliever with a pretty good ERA would post very high WPA’s if he were made the closer. The question is not how much value a player provides, but how replaceable that value is.
I was promised lasagna.
Isn't that sort of like saying
any starter who posts a pretty good FIP will have a pretty good WAR?
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
No, because FIP isn’t based on context.
If you just look at WPA, you’d easily find closers worth 3-4 wins above average, which is almost CYA territory. But they’re not really that elite – there are plenty of relievers, not to mention starters, who would post very similar WPA if they got to pitch only in save situations. If they’re relatively easy to replace, they’re not that valuable.
I was promised lasagna.
comparing relievers to each other using WPA makes sense. I don’t really think WPA measures anything of value for a starter though.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
I always go for the position player if it’s close. I don’t know if other people do.
I was promised lasagna.
There’s a really good study that basically concluded that an average top 50 hitting prospect provides as much value as an average top 10 pitching prospect, or something like that. It’s not just that pitchers are less valuable, they’re also more injury prone, and harder to predict. TINSTAAPP is obviously an overreaction, but I would say that if it’s anywhere close, you go with the hitter.
I was promised lasagna.
It goes like this, assuming all else equal in their prospect stature:
Hitting prospects > Starting prospects > Relieving prospects
As many people have stated, notably Cookyman in this case, failed starters can still become relievers (even dominant relievers).
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Your very last sentence
Extremely basic example (everything, as usual, pulled out of jcb9’s ass):
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I don't know if there is an actual quantative basis for those odds
but, I think Runzler’s probability of becoming a middle reliever is like 100%, since he’s already done that.
You didn’t mention anything about duration. If you mean “becoming a middle reliever and performing at or above league average for 5 years,” then that’s a different thing
completely.
Aside from that, I’d put Runzlers odds of meeting the benchmarks you pointed out much higher than what you projected for Wheeler.
"…this thing which tells time."
Yeah, I think it’s not particularly difficult to see Runzler going the Hinshaw route. Let’s not forget how many Ks Hinshaw got last year/how good his stuff looked.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
That’s possible, but I think Runzler is definitely a better prospect than Hinshaw was a year ago. His numbers are better and he’s younger.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
also, middle relievers probably have the highest attrition rate of any role of player.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
No actual basis, as I stated in the comment. And there is no player in baseball who has a 100% chance to be anything.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
this was my reasoning as well.
well-put
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 4, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions
BAGGS VOTED FOR HIM!
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
I think I put him 6th or 7th in a recent fan post.
I think he could become a shutdown closer within a year, I think that’s worth more than an 18 year old guy who hasn’t played a game yet. The thinking is that Closers are somewhat replacabele and while maybe that’s the case baseball wide (I really don’t know statistically speaking) in this org, there has been some major wheel spinning with closers and an enormous waste in Blownitez. I think the value of Runzler is also slightly effeceted (at least in my eyes) by the potential value of Wilson in a trade.
"…this thing which tells time."
effeceted?
effetely effective?
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
PLEASE REPLY TO THIS COMMENT WITH PEOPLE YOU THINK SHOULD BE ADDED TO THE NEXT POLL
If a name is already suggested, please rec the comment to add your vote for that player.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Well
Sickels had Sosa, Ford, King and Tanner above Adrianza, Crawford and Gillaspie. A lot of people probably dont agree with that, but some of those names should be coming up soon.
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 4, 2009 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Sosa has waaaaaaaaaaaay too many question marks to be anywhere in the top-10 in my opinion. I want to believe in Ford’s new swing, but the K’s are still really high.
I was promised lasagna.
This
I could see those guys near where we place Gillaspie, but not in this area. I realize that I added Gillaspie to the poll, but that was because he was requested and rec’ed enough.
Sickels having those guys ahead of Adrianza and Crawford is nuts, in my mind.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I wasnt suggesting top 10, but if we have 10 people on the ballot, these are the next group of guys who should be coming in
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 4, 2009 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I’ll probably add them in the next group of players added.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Correct.
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Brett Pill
I’m not sure what to make of him but it would be interesting to see how the community views him.
Heh
And that’s the same number of votes he’ll get every time, #4-#15.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Pretty much
Off the top of my head, I’m thinking of throwing Pill on the list around the teens.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
after we get through the current clustercurse, I’d start to consider voting for him.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
raises hand. Pillapalooza is holding his own in Hugoland and this should bring a smile to most of you – he even is getting a few walks
I figured you, flyonthewall, that dude who translated all the Villalona articles, and someone I’m forgetting right now.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
owlcroft like Pill?
BTW, has he ever explained that stat he always references? It always just seems like random 3-digit numbers.
I was promised lasagna.
after consulting the search function, I may have made that up.
Just about everybody connected with the Defenders loves Pill, though.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
And I can't blame them
He obviously drove in a shitton of runs for them. Sadly, that doesn’t mean much for what he can provide to the Giants.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I voted for Crawford. Super young prospects who are really far away from the majors frighten me. Also, I spent the whole last quiz trying to decided if I liked Crawford or Kiesch better, so I feel obligated to be consistent here.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Same here
And although I love the idea of these polls, this is the frustration I have with them. When, for example, I think Crawford is the #5 prospect, and the group has already chosen Kieschnick there, do I keep voting Crawford out of sincere belief (blind loyalty? stubborness?) through numbers 6, 7, and 8 (if necessary)? Because when that happens, and it appears that it will, then people like Adrianza and Joseph will end up above Crawford and/or others I’d prefer.
In short, I wonder if maybe we’d do better by having all of us just submit our Top 30 (or whatever), in order, then have somebody (or a computer, like xanthan) assign points for the rankings, add up the points, and then see who we view where, as a group.
Does that sound reasonable? Thoughts?
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Too complicated for everyone
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 4, 2009 7:21 PM PST up reply actions
People at minor league ball tried this and it was a horrible mess. It’s a great idea in theory, but people submit all kinds of random shit that makes it painful to tabulate. Plus, I think we’d only get 30-50 entries total and it’s nice to have over 200 votes.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Hmm
Well, marcello, I certainly appreciate you doing these polls; and I’m not looking to increase your workload. Heck, I think I’d even volunteer for the tabulating, if it came to that.
Just what kind of stray feces was involved with the Sickels site that made it painful?
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
The main problem I remember is that people would not submit the full list (like 10 out of 30 prospects, for example). I guess you could just ignore those votes, but I’d rather not.
The other big problem I remember, is the person tabulating giving up because of issues with the voters. Mostly the issue above and the fact that many people would use nicknames/misspelled names when ranking their prospects.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Submitting just 10 out of 2 or 30 probably isn’t that bad. If it were out of 20, I’d just take that top ten and assign them the points that they would have gotten for being ranked 11-20. That way, they receive points to bump them up the rankings without a bias for top 10 prospects that may not “deserve” to be there, but are someone’s favorite – like someone that is a reliever fetishist.
co-dad w/AfDC of
Ishikawa, the Topps Rookie All Star Team's First baseman. Does he get a chance in 2010?
It’s an interesting idea, although I’m sure some people would argue with the methodology. Obviously, anyone is welcome to do it if they’d like. It would be cool to see how different the two final lists would be.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Voted Crawford
It was a toss up between Crawford and Joseph. Crawford smoked the ball in SJ, and fell down the well in CT. The tools are there and he should adjust.
Matt Downs . The Kevin Frandsen of 2010 !
Close vote!
Right now, we have 6 for Crawford, then 4 each for Runzler, Joseph, and Rodriguez. It’ll be interesting to see how this one turns out.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Ugh, I hate it when I have to vote for the same guy for days on end.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
yeah, the rest of the top ten should be very close. I think we may have some runoff votes.
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
by Speedforthewin on Dec 4, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Chicks love the dingers.exe! At least, that’s what I’ve heard. Joseph for me.
by AndOnTheDrums... on Dec 4, 2009 12:14 PM PST reply actions
The case against Runzler (at 6)
So everyone else has covered the fact that his role as reliever limits his upside. But he’s also less of a sure thing than he seems. First off, reliever performance is extremely unpredictable. Even guys with good peripherals will turn in shit performances in the pen pretty often. Runzler himself has had not-terrible control for one year and could easily backslide in that area.
Now he does have a lot going for him: the scouts love him and he’s got a better chance of making some sort of impact than a lot of the guys on this list. I say vote for him somewhere towards the bottom of the top ten.
/closes briefcase and sits down
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
he’s got a better chance of making some sort of impact than a lot of the guys on this list.
Isn’t that the whole point of this list? Ranking guys that have the highest probability that they will make the most impact on the major league team in the near future?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 4, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions
Not really, no.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Well, to rephrase
Several things are part of the calculus:
1) How likely the player is to, as you say, make an impact
2) The ceiling and floor of that impact
3) How advanced in the system the player is
4) Our own personal biases
Comparing, say, Runzler to Wheeler, Runzler gets the nod in the third category, but it probably the least important of the first three categories. Wheeler has a big advantage in terms of #2. #1 is debatable.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
I think I got it now
So you’re saying Runzler should be #4 on the list?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 4, 2009 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t see how that follows, no.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
So, #2 then?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 4, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions
I realize you’re making a joke here, but it’s the end of my work day on a Friday and I’m too dense right now to grasp it.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
no the highest mark should go to the guys who have the highest probability of making the most impact, not just some impact.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Big difference between ‘some sort of impact’ and ‘the most impact’ and the term ‘in the near future’ tilts it all in another direction. Runzler has the probably the highest chance to have ‘some sort of impact’ soonest on the MLB team, but then you are ignoring ‘the most impact’ and valuing something NOW (or soon) over something later. Do you want an Ace for 5 years but from 2015-2019, or a LOOGY in 2010 that is out of baseball from 2011 on? Stark hyperbole maybe, but I just wanted to highlight some of the absolute types that these two ‘impacts’ might have and question why something is better now than later.
And on the other hand, my bias is often for “probability” over “ceiling” and so I tend to rate ‘more developed’ prospects higher than others. Closeness to majors influences that probability pretty strongly, so it one thing I do look at when I make my ratings.
co-dad w/AfDC of
Ishikawa, the Topps Rookie All Star Team's First baseman. Does he get a chance in 2010?
I’m casting my vote with the Josephists this time in order to stamp out the Runzlerite threat, and I encourage all RafRodians to join me. And all Crawfordistas as well, but you people are crazy anyway.
The Crawfordistas are extremists.
I’m a RafRodian, but I saw this too late to switch to the Josephists, and I don’t think I would have in any case.
Lethargy
It has me
You can also call us Josephines if you like.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Josepharians?
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
I like Josephites better
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
I voted for Joseph at 5 and I'm voting for him until he gets it.
Have any of you seen that sweet (power) stroke? It’s tantalizing.
Noonan. Nooooonan!
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Dec 4, 2009 12:47 PM PST reply actions
It's positively Torcado-esque!
I don’t like voting for lottery tickets.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
I don’t think Torcado was ever as good a prospect as Joseph, even before he got hurt.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Really? Torcado was picked higher in his draft.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Yeah, but that was when the Giants were terrible drafters and frequently punted their picks for signability and cost. As I recall Torcato (and I always forget how to spell his name too) wasn’t even a Top 100 prospect in his draft class.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Then I tentatively retract my snarky reply to Giant Fan in Singapore.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
And also draft classes have vastley different talent pools.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
People seemed to be pretty high on Torcato early on, but perhaps that was just Koolaid.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
It's pretty painful to look at our picks that year
1) Tony Toracto 3B
1) Nate Bump RHP
1) Arturo McDowell OF
1s) Chris Jones LHP
1s) Jeff Urban LHP
2) Chris Magruder OF
3) Mike Dean C
4) Joshua Santos LHP
5) Ryan Vogelsong RHP
Vogelsong helped get us Schmidt, but otherwise, OUCH.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Wouldn’t it be cool to go back in time and replace whoever drafted for us with a dart & dartboard?
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
You know who was drafted the very next pick after Torcato, right?
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Either Sabathia or Dunn or think
I have looked at that before
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 4, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions
It was C.C.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
ouch
can you imagine that rotation?
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 4, 2009 1:03 PM PST up reply actions
Or maybe all we had to do was turn the their draft card upside down.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions
There weren't even any late-round guys to salvage the draft like the year we punted our #1 pick for Michael Tucker but got Sergio Romo, Thomas Neal, etc. later in the draft
The biggest names after the first five rounds: Cody Ransom, Doug Clark.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Redo-
1) CC
1) Mark Prior
1) Matt Holliday
1s) Zito
1s) Adam Dunn
2) Ryan Madson
3) Jack Wilson
*Note: Rowand, Zito and Torres where all drafted
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
Prior probably wouldn't have signed there...
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
I know. But if money wasn’t an issue
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
Not quite. Wendell Fairly was a first round “hitter.” Also, Linden, Burriss, Noonan, Culberson, and Jax were all 1st round supplemental.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Hey, I don't mind. It's discussion, and where would McC be without the snark?
I had season tickets to the SJ Giants when Torcato was a prospect, saw him dozens of times.
I’ve (admittedly) only seen video clips of Joseph’s swing.
The two players are not similar by any stretch of my imagination. That’s why I voted Joseph. I’ll say it again: tantalizing.
Noonan. Nooooonan!
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Dec 4, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions
a few months ago
as a contractor, i did some work for torcato’s father. interesting conversation, but tony’s a family man in oregon now.
What’s the rule on Runoffs this year? is it exactly tied or within a few votes?
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
Is a 5% differential enough?
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
Makes sense. Especially considering the fact that Cookyman is apparently from West Palm Beach.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
RafRod here
ToJo next
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 4, 2009 12:53 PM PST reply actions
Looks like we may well be heading towards our first run-off, though.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
So lets assume that happens, how do you think the votes will fall?
I’m wondering if the debate will be a potential vs. proximity to the majors one, with the Runzlers joining the Crawfords, and the RafRods joining the Josephs.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Sounds about right.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Potentially a 4-way runoff
Maybe we’ll just do 24 options:
Crawford, Joseph, Rodriguez, Runzler
Crawford, Joseph, Runzler, Rodriguez
.
.
.
It’ll be nice to lose my mind BEFORE Christmas for once.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Questions about power
The one difference that has been made between RafRod and Joseph is how Joseph hits dingers and Rodriguez doesn’t. Joseph displayed power at the high school level. Rodriguez hasn’t displayed power put he’s playing at a much higher level. So, my questions are:
-How do you account for the difference in age/competition level?
-If RafRod was in HS last year, do you think he would have displayed more power?
-If Joseph was in the AZL last year (he’s a year older than RafRod), how much power would he have displayed?
Innocent until proven guilty...
The Joseph question should read TWO years ago, since they would have been the same age in the same league.
Innocent until proven guilty...
by AngelWillSaveUs on Dec 4, 2009 1:13 PM PST up reply actions
I haven’t actually seen them play, mind you, just brief clips – but there’s a physical difference between the two. Namely, as others have put it, Rodriguez is a beanpole. There are also, I gather, some issues with his swing that need to be addressed. So, while he has potential, it’s questionable whether he would have come close to Joseph’s high school power playing at the same level.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
It’s basically a scouting thing. Scouts say that Rodriguez’s power will come, scouts at the draft said OMG LITE TOWER.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Well, I think it’s easy to say that when you see someone hitting the ball for power. What I’m getting at is that, if RafRod played against HS competition, I’d suspect he’d hit for quite a bit of power. It’s easy to say RafRod doesn’t have power when the fact could be he does, it’s just tougher to display it when you are playing against tough competition.
If I were in a footrace with a fat kid, I’d look pretty damn fast. Put me in a race with a world class sprinter, I think we know how that would end up.
Innocent until proven guilty...
by AngelWillSaveUs on Dec 4, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
Well, even a scouting dunderhead like me can see that Rodriguez doesn’t have any power in his swing right now. But teaching a big guy with a good eye to hit for power seems doable.
How can you see that he doesn’t have any power in his swing? The evidence that Joseph does was from a BP video. Do we have one of RafRod?
I honestly have no idea because I’ve only seen RafRod once in person and never seen Joseph. I’m just trying to find out why it’s such a given that Joseph has power and RafRod doesn’t.
Innocent until proven guilty...
by AngelWillSaveUs on Dec 4, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2009/12/4/1185835/mccovey-chronicles-community#26559554
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
It’s still not BP.
Innocent until proven guilty...
by AngelWillSaveUs on Dec 4, 2009 1:30 PM PST up reply actions
Look again
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions
I see a 9 second clip of Rodriguez putting a ball in play and running to first.
Innocent until proven guilty...
by AngelWillSaveUs on Dec 4, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions
look again
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks, I thought I was losing my mind.
Innocent until proven guilty...
by AngelWillSaveUs on Dec 4, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
Sorry about that.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
Wagner Mateo
This isn’t related, but it reminds me of this video and it’s jaunty music:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdBIFERcKtk&feature=related
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
I know. Its the only video I could find.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
It’d be helpful to know what Rodriguez looks like in BP.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pOZgrSTVqE&feature=player_embedded
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 4, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
That obviously wasn’t BP.
Innocent until proven guilty...
by AngelWillSaveUs on Dec 4, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
I voted for Joseph. Light Tower Power all the way! It was between him and Rodriguez. I will go with Rodriguez with my next pick if he is still on the board after this round. I understand the argument about Runzler, (big) but… he is a reliever. I won’t value a relief prospect over a offensive player with a projected higher ceiling.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 4, 2009 1:25 PM PST reply actions
Wow
Joseph has an almost double-digit lead at this point.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Can’t wait for the Crawford-Adrianza debates to start up again. I missed the last one and am an Adrianzan.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
Hector Correa
I wanted to bring this guy up not because I think he should be added now, but to generate some discussion about whether he might make the top 20 or 30 list. He was acquired when we traded Jack Taschner and flipped Ronny Paulino to the Marlins at the end of 2009 spring training. He was considered to be the #8 Marlin prospect in 2007 by Baseball Prospectus and the #3 prospect in the New York Penn League in 2007 by Baseball America. He missed the last half of 2008 with a shoulder injury and had Tommy John surgery. He was rated as the #22 prospect for the Marlins by Baseball America last off season. He never appeared in a game this year, so I assume he is still recovering.
Paulino>Holm>Whiteside
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Yeah, but that’s less relevant as he would’ve just been Bengie’s backup anyway.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
That’s kind of my thought. How much value does a backup catcher have? Correa might not ever throw a pitch, but if he recovers from his injuries, he might develop into a valuable pitcher for the Giants as was projected of him before he was injured.
Fangraphs has him at 1.6 WAR in 2009 as a backup. Whiteside: 0.1.
He would be a really handy guy to have in 2010, with the Posey transition and all. Oh well.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
80 games, 269 PA
He wouldn’t have played that much for the Giants though, you’re right.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Paulino reminds that we could have traded Molina for Jon Niese, which would leave us with better catcher production, $7M more, and Jon Niese.
I was promised lasagna.
Blergh
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
I am trying to figure out if by having 4 potential winners of the 6 spot is a good thing.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 4, 2009 2:23 PM PST reply actions
Someone said on the last thread – and I agree – that there’s a big drop off after the top 4, and there’s not much to distinguish 5-10 or so. Lot of judgement calls.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
I can guarantee you it's not
But I do think it’s a good representation of how close these guys are.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Tommy Joseph
Upsideeeeeeee with the dingerzz
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
You just reminded me of a bad photoshop I made during the season
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
If Joseph holds his lead
The McCoven Community list will continue to be identical to mine thus far.
Therefore, I’ll issue my proclamation now: Rafael Rodriguez comes next.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Why I chose Runzler
I’ve only been following baseball religiously for about 5 years, but in that time I’ve come to the general conclusion about successful ballplayers.
Generally hitters that don’t control the strike zone in the minors are made to look absolutely foolish by big league pitchers and pitchers that depend on pitching to contact in the minors get smoked like a doobie at a Phish show.
And guys who don’t hit for power in the minors generally don’t draw walks in the bigs and can’t outrun all the balls they hit in the infield. Guys who can’t walk in the minors chase a lot of bad pitches in the bigs and either hit weak dribblers or swing and miss.
There are guys who break these rules (like Panda) but they are rare. This is usually because they have a superhuman like ability that counteracts their weakness.
Runzler can get K’s; he can pitch successfully in the bigs. There’s a very good chance he can be a top notch closer. The only hitter without a known major flaw is Joseph because he hasn’t played. Because he’s human odds are that he won’t be able to control the strike zone enough to hit in the bigs.
Generally hitters that don’t control the strike zone in the minors are made to look absolutely foolish by big league pitchers and pitchers that depend on pitching to contact in the minors get smoked like a doobie at a Phish show.
Kirk Rueter? Tom Glavine?
And guys who don’t hit for power in the minors generally don’t draw walks in the bigs and can’t outrun all the balls they hit in the infield.
Bill Mueller? Omar Vizquel?
Runzler can get K’s; he can pitch successfully in the bigs.
Billy Sadler? Alex Hinshaw? Merkin Valdez?
There are guys who break these rules (like Panda) but they are rare.
They’re the exception to the rule, but I don’t think I’d call them rare. Most teams probably have at least one or two guys who one of these criteria.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
most of those are good rules of thumb, but should also add: it’s much easier to get K’s as a reliever than as a starter.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Those K rates don’t necessarily translate well, either. Even after getting hurt, Merkin was striking out a hitter an inning in the PCL. His K rate really dropped off in his first full year in the majors, however.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
We’re back into a near-tie between Joseph and Crawford. Yep, looks like it’ll be a run-off.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
What do you mean YOU PEOPLE?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
I first read that as baetown is back...
(I’m Korean)
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
What do YOU mean YOU PEOPLE?
just watched that again last night. Definitely better the second time through.
Tropic Thunder?
That quote, or some variation, is probably from 100 different movies.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Yeah, Tropic Thunder
I forgot how good Robert Downey is. You really forget that it’s him for large stretches.
After that and Iron Man, I really liked him as an actor. I thought he was awesome in both.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
He’s also good in Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang and Wonder Boys. I’m pretty skeptical about Sherlock Holmes from the previews but I am hoping that it isn’t as ridiculous as it looks like it is going to be.
Yeah
Whenever I see the previews I feel like I should be excited about it, but I’m just not.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 4, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions
Wonder Boys is a good movie and a way better book. And I, too, am looking forward very much to the Holmesian adventure.
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Random, tenuous connections to famous people
My wife and I are friends one of Michael Chabon’s cousins. Are you sufficiently impressed?
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
My moms sisters husband friend is a lawyer for someone who met Osama Bin Laden
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 4, 2009 4:45 PM PST up reply actions
My father has a friend who extensively interiewed the Unabomber in prison.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
My dad knew david lee roth growing up (and apparently while my dad was away one summer, his family let roth stay in his empty room).
And also, he knew one of the guys who was in the MIT card counting blackjack thing (like the movie 21, but not actually one of the people from the movie).
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
Bill Ayres teaches at the university where I got my MA! I know a lot of people who know him. Actually, he came up on my People You May Know thingey on Facebook the other day.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
I knew Jermaine Dye’s sister in high school, so I met him a couple times (we were three years behind him).
I’m friends with the (not really) blind guy from Becker (Alex Désert).
My father took care of Tug McGraw in ICU.
My mother went to high school with Jim Plunkett. He used to walk her to school.
Worse still
Runzler and Rodriguez are within 4 and 5 votes of Joseph too. Geez.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
I know
As it currently stands, we’d have to do a 4-way run off. And there are only 6 votes currently for other people, so it’s not like that would change it much. 24 options…
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Everyone who hasn’t voted yet should just vote for Joseph. SOLVED.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Honestly
That would be fine, even though I voted for Crawford. Everyone who hasn’t voted yet collude, please.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
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Man I am a such groupthink junkie, I have voted for the player in the lead every time without ever looking at the results. I KNOW HOW YOU PEOPLE THINK
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
I voted Rodriguez
I’m waiting till Joseph actually gets some professional AB’s before I’m totally sold, but I’m fine with him at 6.
Seriously, though, the votes for Runzler are just annoying. Stoffel is probably just as good, if not better prospect, and he doesn’t have one vote. I like Dan Runzler, but he simply doesn’t have the upside as the other options to vote for.
I’m thinking that if current trends hold and we have a runoff, the anti-Runzlerites will largely coalesce behind Joseph.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Why do you think Stoffel is a better prospect than Runzler?
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Dec 5, 2009 10:53 PM PST up reply actions
I said Stoffel is probably a better prospect, but its more likely that he’s a notch under Runzler, since Runzler is a lefty and has played at higher levels.
But, Stoffel was the top reliever going into the 2009 college season, and was expected to go in the first 2 rounds. A lackluster junior year let him slip to the Giants in the 4th round(it was still better then any year Runzler had in college).
He’s got just as good of stuff as Runzler without the control problems.
There both good prospects, but my main point was Runzler is just getting the votes because of the BA list.
I don’t think either of them should be rated this high. I just don’t value relievers as much as everyday players and starting pitchers.
Joseph
he can make the most impact in this org due to the considerable power that he’s already displayed and for what he projects. The questions about his defense are huge question marks but it sounds as if he’s a catcher until further notice, though hardly anyone expects him to stay there. Given his age and upside and draft position and scouting reports, this spot seems appropriate.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 5, 2009 4:49 PM PST reply actions
I just did some researching.
Can anyone tell me anything about any of these players?
Ryan Cavan – age 21- Played for Salem-Kaiser, was 6th in league in OPS, 6th in SLG, 10th in OBP, 8th in BB and 6th in HRs
Brock Bond – age 24 – Why are people so skeptical of him? 3rd in league for OPS, 1st in Avg, 1st in OBP and 5th in BB
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re: bond
People are skeptical because
a. age 24
b. no power
c. not a great defensive player
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"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
He played AA
and according to Baseball America the average age for AA players was 24.3. He slugged .409, which isnt very good, but if he can continue to get on base that much, he could be valuable.
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 5, 2009 5:36 PM PST up reply actions
Most folks here have a strong age bias.
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo.
But he wasnt even old for AA! He was average!
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 5, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, and the average player in AA won’t ever make the majors. You want better than average. Which, in terms of age, he was not.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
Alright, thats true. hHe was better than average, but you guys are probably right.
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 5, 2009 11:10 PM PST up reply actions
There was a BA organizational report on Bond back in August, in which Jack Hiatt was quoted as saying something to the effect of: we really don’t know what to do with him defensively. We’ll just keep plugging him in places and see if he can stick.
So essentially, it’s an issue of can he keep a .400+ OBP as he rises because he’s got no other physical skill — he can’t run, has no lateral movement on D, weak arm, no power at all in his bat. It’s a very long shot that major league pitchers wouldn’t find weaknesses in his swing that would bring that OBP down and once that happens, he doesn’t have enough other abilities to play at the major league level.
Also, what jcb9 and groug say above is absolutely correct — being an average age in a minor league is the same thing as being old for that league. Being significantly younger then your league is a more reliable indicator of future level success than actual performance is. It seems counterintuitive but it proves to be true over and over.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Alright
thanks for the information. Now I understand.
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 6, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions
is he going to keep that OBP at higher levels without some power to go with it?
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
If Cavan is a shortstop, and can hit even a little, he should get some consideration here.
21 is super old for SK, though isn’t it?
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
No, it’s a little younger than the median age:
http://rangers.scottlucas.com/site/2009minorage.htm
That link (rather, the information it provides) is also one of the reasons I’m still really high on Noonan.
I had never heard his name before
Wondering if anyone knows anything about him.
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 6, 2009 4:27 PM PST up reply actions
Noonan and Gillaspie
So you voted for them. Why?
I voted Tommy Joesph for 5 and again for 6. I’m probably going RafRod next… but maybe a Noonanite can convince me. Why are you still convinced he is a top-6 prospect?
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Ishikawa, the Topps Rookie All Star Team's First baseman. Does he get a chance in 2010?
I can understand a Noonan vote, based on his relative proximity to the majors and his non-completely awful stat lines.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
I have Noonan at #7, behind Rodriguez and (just barely) Joseph. His overall performance has been unimpressive thus far, but he has shown a bunch of skills and remains very young for the league, which is enough to keep him well ahead of the Gillaspie/Kieschnick/Crawford group.
Compare Noonan and Kieschnick, for instance. They both spent the whole year at San Jose, so it’s easy to compare their stats. Kieschnick has a huge edge in power and a slight edge in OBP, but much of that is a result of BABIP luck. Apply the luck neutralization tool on Minor League Splits and you get the following lines:
Noonan .273/.344/.409
Kieschnick .289/.338/.519
Noonan walks a lot more and strikes out a lot. He plays a far more valuable position. And he is more than two years younger. Add it up and I think it’s clear that Noonan had the better year and remains the more valuable prospect.
This is a great point, and once I wish had been made before I voted for Kieschnick before.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Joseph
I voted for Joseph. Most of this has been covered in comments further up the page, but what the heck… Rodriguez and Crawford were the other choices, but they both have pretty significant known weaknesses at this point – power and contact respectively, though in Crawford’s case the bat overall could be seen as pretty questionable. Those weaknesses have been noted by scouts and supported by the pro data we’ve seen so far (though in RafRod’s case the data isn’t that meaningful yet).
With Joseph, obviously there is no pro data, but the scouting reports on the bat are very strong. Specifically, he is considered to have plus power and strong offensive skills overall already – there’s less reliance on projection than with the other two guys.
Rodriguez’s patience, age and tools are impressive, and if Crawford is as good defensively as he’s made out to be, his bat doesn’t have to be all that great for him to be valuable overall. I’m not terribly sure about the right call on this one, and maybe it’s just a matter of not having had the chance to see Joseph’s flaws yet, but his offensive upside seems to rival that of anyone in the system.
Yeah, there’s a truism about prospecting — the players in the lower levels you only see their virtues, because they haven’t gotten to the level where opponents can expose their weaknesses. It’s not that the weaknesses aren’t there for the Josephs and Wheelers, just that we haven’t seen them yet and we have see Crawford’s and Kiesch’s etc. It’s a tough balancing act.
Unfortunately, I fear that Crawford’s going to get the ol’ Giants crash-course at some point in this year, because it seems unrealistic to me to believe that Renteria will be able to play a full season and I’m not seeing what the Plan B is at the major league level. I’d be willing to bet we’ll see Crawford in a starting lineup in SF sometime this year.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Giving up never felt so good. Welcome to Plan B.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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Planb!
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 6, 2009 7:36 PM PST up reply actions
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