McCovey Chronicles Community Prospect List #16
by marcello on Dec 20, 2009 12:57 PM PST
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PrintPlease do not rec these, we don't want to have them cluttering up the recommended fanposts. Thanks
You just had to be difficult, I hope you're proud of yourself. Here is our list so far:
- Buster Posey
- Madison Bumgarner
- Thomas Neal
- Zack Wheeler
- Roger Kieschnick
- Tommy Joseph
- Brandon Crawford
- Rafael Rodriguez
- Dan Runzler
- Nick Noonan
- Conor Gillaspie
- Ehire Adrianza
- Francisco Peguero
- Hector Sanchez and Jason Stoffel
For #16, we have the following options:
Matt Graham
Each player should have a link to Baseball Cube in their first name and a link to First Inning in their last name if they are available. The poll will close Wednesday at noon, unless it's clear enough to call, then it will be earlier.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Jorge Bucardo for me
Although I am getting SNTS with Graham.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Get Pat Riley on the phone
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 20, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions
I went Ford because
I think he may have finally learned how to hit although this year at AAA is make or break-but he plays CF very well and I went for the position player over the pitcher.
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
Hes saying that this year at AAA will be make or break for him, I think.
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 20, 2009 5:22 PM PST up reply actions
…of course, EME has threepeated two different levels.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Same age, relative to league, as Brett Pill
But Ford plays a much tougher position extremely well.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
THREEpeating Ford?
(for the threepeat)
#1 threat to America: Pandas
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 20, 2009 2:09 PM PST up reply actions
Bucardo, I guess
I also thought about Tanner.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
the tie was cool
and exciting. some day, around 2014, us grey haired guys will be watching Stoffel close out a ML victory with a pitch to Hector Sanchez, [Posey playing emergency shortstop after Crawford hurt in a collision scoring the go ahead run as Neal blasts a double off the left centerfield wall] and we will think warmly of this day
cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"
Bucardo time!
Maybe Tanner next time, I don’t know yet.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 20, 2009 1:51 PM PST reply actions
Bucardo
I like em young
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 20, 2009 2:09 PM PST reply actions
Would like to see Ryan Lollis
in the mix somewhere in the 20’s.
Should fit in well in Richmond.
Matt Downs . The Kevin Frandsen of 2010 !
I would like to see Ryan Cavan too. He has better numbers than Lollis, is younger, and plays SS
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 20, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
Cavan actually looks pretty . He is right about average age, and put up a .917 OPS
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 20, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions
looks pretty interesting*
that was an unfortunate word to leave out
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 20, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions
Hey, nothing to be ashamed of right there. Don’t hide yourself from yourself.
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Good call. While the Giants don’t have a ML shortstop, they do have an abundance of prospects in the system. Let’s hope one of them has the skills to make it through.
Matt Downs . The Kevin Frandsen of 2010 !
Im not sure how much SS he plays, because he played in A- where Cavan was the starting SS. He i simply listed as IF on theBaseballCube
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 21, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
I was wondering where all the Joaquin voters are
He’s leading right now, but yours is the only comment supporting him. Odd.
How do you rationalize the 1.43 K/BB? That scared the pants off me.
definitely
at this point, every single prospect has a decently good upside, but glaring issues that need to be figured out for them to be a good MLer. joaquin looks like he’s going to be a contributor to the 2010 bullpen, and that’s pretty much the reason i voted for him here (closest to bigs). he doesn’t have a ridiculous amount of upside that others do at this point, like dominguez, considering he’s only a reliever, but hopefully he gets that K/BB thing figured out
Wait?
Dominguez?
What? Is there two?
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 22, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions
It’s my boy’s time shine! Finally.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
If Dominguez is on there, Cavan should be too
Dominguez:
Age 22 in A-:
OPS 741
OBP .299
Avg. .254
BB% 4.6
SB 11
HR 9
in 181 ABs
Cavan:
Age 22 in A-:
OPS 917
OBP .399
Avg. 277
BB% 15.0
2 SB
9 HRs
in 191 ABs
He is slower, and not as much power, but he plays SS, a much tougher position. He was the Giants 16th round draft pick in the 2009 draft.
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 20, 2009 3:41 PM PST reply actions
I agree that Cavan should be on the list next time, but I still think it is too early to vote for him. I think the Dominguez love is the LIGHT TOWER POWER!
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 20, 2009 3:45 PM PST up reply actions
.299 OBP in A-?
he needs to improve that walk rate before I vote for him.
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 20, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions
For sure. I am thinking somewhere in the low-mid 20s for him.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 20, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions
Im not even sure about that. he was good in college, but his numbers are almost below average even in in A-
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 20, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not feeling the Dominguez love until he turns some of those Ks into BBs.
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
I think John Eshleman is actually a better SS prospect then Cavan, but he was injured most of the season.
Plus, I think Cavan’s power was a little fluky.
by NateEveryday on Dec 22, 2009 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
I went Bond too
Sosa’s K/BB rates in AA at 23 scare me. No way that 2.36 is legit with a 3.1 BB/9 and a 5.5 K/9. Same problem with Joaquin (4.7 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9). His AAA numbers are better, but only in 8 games, so yeah. And Bucardo’s a 19 year old P with admittedly decent numbers, but in low-A. Something tells me he’s pretty far from a sure thing (I say this with complete confidence in my hypocrisy as I voted for Sanchez before).
Is it the DINGERZ gland?
I don’t get why people are voting overwhelmingly for Ford over Bond here. Same age, similar positional value and similar walk rates but Bond is a level ahead! He does appear to have less power but the lesser power is in a pitcher’s league vs hitter’s league and in AA vs A. I don’t know about their defensive skills so maybe that is the decider? I think he should fit in right near Ehire if not above.
by VizquelQuest on Dec 20, 2009 5:53 PM PST up reply actions
Bond’s defense is not good, if I’m remembering correctly, and Ford’s is fantastic. On a personal note, I question hitters in the minors that show zero power whatsoever.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Yeah, I looked through some stuff and a few guys said Bond doesn’t have a great glove. I thought he was good, so that changes him a little for me, but that OBP is kinda nice out of a 2B.
Anyway, if
I question hitters in the minors that show zero power whatsoever.
Why is Gillaspie’s .379 SLG #11 and Bond’s .409 SLG in Conn. (which is supposed to be pitcher-friendly, right?) #16? I don’t know if you personally had him that high but it does seem inconsistent. I get the upside with Gillaspie, but Bond seems by most accounts a solid prospect with the most important skill, especially in the Giants organization: he can take a walk.
He was voted on the list before I would have placed him, but he does seem to have a little more power than Bond and there is hope that he could develop more.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
The SLG is misleading due to the difference in their batting averages and so masks the underlying power of both players. Gillaspie posted an ISO of .100 compared to .075 for Bond so he did show more power. Not as much as you’d want though but there’s hope that there’s more power there for him.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
When you look at the batted-ball data, it becomes clear that Brock Bond has as close to zero power as you’ll ever see. Gillaspie hit a fly ball 43% of the time when he made contact; Bond’s number was 16%.
There are a few major-leaguers who have succeeded with that approach (Luis Castillo, for one), but Bond doesn’t have any speed or defense to increase his value, so the odds are really against him.
I'll vote for Bond next
On the "Brian Sabean should be fired" bandwagon
I want winners...and Eric Berry
Casilla
Good numbers in ssA, but why is he in the bullpen? Looks like he’s got a pretty nasty sinker and some strikeout stuff, and he’s only 20
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 20, 2009 4:33 PM PST reply actions
I’ve been asking that question all year. Why is this kid in the bullpen?
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I saw that you voted for Bucardo, but in your mind, who has the better stuff? Casilla seemed to have a little better numbers, granted in a much smaller sample size, but Bucardo is also younger and at the same level
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 20, 2009 9:29 PM PST up reply actions
I’ve never seen either pitch yet, unfortunately so I can’t give any personal opinion on that - I should see both in 2010 if they’re both in the Sally - but from scouting reports it seems Casilla’s got a little more velocity and Bucardo’s got a little more deception. Jorge’s always been young for his league and posted very good K/BB rates and GB rates. Casilla’s numbers have always been better (especially the GB%) but that’s to be expected from a reliever over a starter as he’s always pitching in 1 inning stints.
If they moved Casilla to starter (as I believe they should) we’d get a truer measure of their relative values, and I think Casilla might have the greater upside at that point. But unitl they move him out of the bullpen, I had to go with Jorge as the better prospect.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Thanks Roger, good to hear. It looks like both have some pretty filthy GB%, should be fun to watch. Hopefully at least one stays in Sally league so you get a chance to see them
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 21, 2009 7:15 AM PST up reply actions
Tanner vs Casilla
and Tanner just turned 22 and was successful at hi A already, as a starter. Casilla has only been at low levels. With 2 good years he will match where Tanner is now.
cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"
by foothillsfan on Dec 20, 2009 7:25 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, but in 2 more years, or 5 or 10 for that matter, Tanner won’t have stuff that Casilla has right now. It’s very difficult to pitch in the majors without a plus pitch and Tanner doesn’t have a plus pitch in his repertoire.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Still voting Tanner
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis. To pass the time during the offseason I decided to try my hand at blogging about photography and music.
If Tanner happens to lose this time, I will vote for him with my next pick.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 20, 2009 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
Still no Guzman?
The fix is in!
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
Dewey defeats Truman!
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 20, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions
This is going to be a close one.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Potential five way runoff
At this point I have to think that you guys are just trying to fuck with me. I’m sorry for whatever I did, please make it stop.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
How soon before we can put Guzman and Jax on the list?
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
by Speedforthewin on Dec 20, 2009 11:18 PM PST reply actions
D Ford
I don’t not believe!
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo. Looking forward to adopting Justin Smoak.
+1
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 21, 2009 6:39 AM PST up reply actions
Definitely
he reminds me of Torres, but I don’t think he’ll reach that level
On the "Brian Sabean should be fired" bandwagon
I want winners...and Eric Berry
this community list could be longer than last year’s (he said, hoping not to jinx it)—when Marcello stopped at 30. I think he noted that the quality of prospects was getting pretty low so comparing them was silly. Maybe overall system quality is higher this time.
cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"
I don’t really think we should go past 30, we’re hoping for a couple hundred votes per poll (to be representative of the community opinion), and I don’t know how many people will be able to vote with any knowledge on who is the deserving 40th or 50th prospect. I know I wouldn’t.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
We’ll play it by ear, but my guess is most people will have lost interest by then.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 21, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
Will this be on the final?
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo. Looking forward to adopting Justin Smoak.
Tanner
he should have moved on to AA last season.
Neal before Zod!
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by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 21, 2009 8:21 AM PST reply actions
Edlefsen
Steve E. should begin entering the conversation post-20 me thinks…
Pray for a snow drift.
by BurkettandSwift on Dec 21, 2009 12:53 PM PST reply actions
+1
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
by Speedforthewin on Dec 21, 2009 7:58 PM PST up reply actions
Outside of ERA
His numbers are pretty awful for a reliever.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
High BB%, but the K rate is high. I don’t know what to make of his fresno peripherals, SSS and all. Results and age should mean something, maybe mid twenties.
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
by Speedforthewin on Dec 21, 2009 11:33 PM PST up reply actions
Well, I guess it depends on what results you’re looking at, but his K and BB numbers are not good for a reliever. His K/9 or K/IP is inflated due to all his walks. He looks like Hinshaw without the strikeouts.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
hinshaw was a high prospect once, edlefsen doesn’t deserve to be a mid twenties prospect?
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
by Speedforthewin on Dec 22, 2009 9:10 AM PST up reply actions
Hinshaw was never a particularly high prospect.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
probably my own perception. I thought he was high teens once.
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
by Speedforthewin on Dec 22, 2009 9:26 AM PST up reply actions
hinshaw
showed good potential. You would think they could figure out the mechanics and improve the control
cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"
by foothillsfan on Dec 22, 2009 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
someone might. Probably won’t happen with the Giants
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
by Speedforthewin on Dec 22, 2009 9:31 AM PST up reply actions
Tanner
On the "Brian Sabean should be fired" bandwagon
I want winners...and Eric Berry
I'll be on Graham soon
And not in the Walrusman way..
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Whew!
Scared me for a moment!
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 22, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks!
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 22, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions
Dominguez got a lot more votes than I thought he would. At this rate he could be come our 19-22 pick.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 22, 2009 12:51 PM PST reply actions
Dingers Gland
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 22, 2009 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
I’m split between Ford and Brock Bond. It seems to me that Bond is severely underrated…he has hit over .300 in each of his professional season and last year hit over .350 in Dodd stadium. So what he doesn’t hit for power, his batting average speaks for itself.
Name one decent major league player who has no power
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 22, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
and can’t run or play D
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Damn
I really wanted him to answer
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 22, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions
Nick Johnson, Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki, Denard Span, Magglio Ordonez, Felipe Lopez, Jacoby Ellsbury.
All have wOBA greater than .350, and all have low ISO (Ordonez and Lopez topped out last year at .118, and Figgins was all the way down at .096). Of course, most can run/play defense, but Nick Johnson was below average defensively last year (though he’s generally been decent), and had two SB. Ordonez stole three bases and isn’t any good defensively. Lopez doesn’t steal all that much (6 SB last year) and is frequently pretty horrible defensively.
I like Bond, though I realize that his chance of being a good ML-er isn’t that fabulous. Though the same could be said of anyone, so…
I agree that Bond is slightly underrated; there is no reason, IMO, to put Gillaspie above Bond other than draft round equaling skill (Gillaspie can’t do anything but walk, and he plays a less scarce position). I don’t think he’s super amazing or anything, but the other options aren’t much better (high upside guys who haven’t done much, guys with shiny ERAs but horrible K/BB rates, or just really young pitchers with good stats but only one season under their belts).
Last year, Bond slugged .409 with 1 HR in 405 ABs in AA.
In AA Nick Johnson slugged .546 with 14 Hrs in 432 ABs
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 22, 2009 8:47 PM PST up reply actions
Nick Johnson, Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki, Denard Span, Magglio Ordonez, Felipe Lopez, Jacoby Ellsbury.
Nick Johnson – Good defense and actually had average to good power before this season.
Chone Figgins – Fantastic defense and the ability to play all over the field.
Ichiro – Fantastic defense and an unholy ability to hit for average.
Span – Well, this is probably who you hope Bond becomes offensively, but Span plays a decent outfield and Bond can’t play 2B.
Ordonez – Seriously? Why bring him up, it makes no sense. Reputation does count for something.
Lopez – Had a .150 ISO in the minors.
Ellsbury – Overrated, decent player, but minors ISO was .112 and he was in the majors at 23. Bond has a .070 ISO and was 23 in AA.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Again, not saying that Bond=any of those guys, just that it is possible to become a successful major leaguer without the ability to hit for power.
Sure. But not if you cant hit for power, are slow, and cant play defense.
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 23, 2009 2:03 AM PST up reply actions
Ordonez is a pretty bizarre example. He has almost 300 Major League home runs. When he was Bond’s age, he was hitting 14 home runs in the Majors, which is 12 more than Bond has ever had in the minors.
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Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
Yeah, he’s weird, but he was a decent hitter last year without hitting for too much power. He’s definitely got more pop than Bond, but he put together a mediocre season without a high ISO, which therefore proves it’s possible, and therefore suggests that Bond can become a successful major leaguer. He won’t ever be paid as much as Ordonez unless he’s been severely underperforming up till now, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that the OBP he put together is legit, and enough to at least get him a starting job. If Nick Johnson’s power decline continues, and Bond continues putting up those numbers (I realize this isn’t necessarily likely) they’ll actually be pretty similar players, except Bond plays a much tougher position.
he put together a mediocre season without a high ISO, which therefore proves it’s possible, and therefore suggests that Bond can become a successful major leaguer.
No, it doesn’t. One season doesn’t prove anything. And again, Bond can’t actually play 2B. He’s just there.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I would think that if someone does something, it’s therefore established as within the realm of the possible. Johnson hit a grand total of eight home runs last year, didn’t post an otherwise high slugging percentage, and still had a wOBA over .350. That, to me, indicates that a player can be a good hitter without a high ISO. All Bond has to do is keep the OBP up and not get any worse everywhere else to be at least semi-useful.
Realm of possible is completely different from reasonable expectation. It’s in the realm of possible that I win the lotto, but it wouldn’t make sense to actually think I would.
Again, you can’t isolate one season and try to draw broad conclusions from it.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
You’re argument is getting very confused because you’re conflating “become” (what someone’s minor league numbers suggest they’ll develop into) with the major league results of people who have been in the league for years and in some cases are already aging and declining.
I mean you might as well add Willie Mays to your list, after all he only slugged .344 in 1973 at the age of 42, so perhaps he proves you can become a major leaguer with no power as well.
I’m also confused about your statement that Gillespie plays a “less scarce position”. 3B is higher on the defensive spectrum than 2B and I think also qualifies as more scarce (thus the phenomenon of minor league SS and 3B moving over to 2B in the majors because they can’t play the left side positions at the major league level), though in the end they’re probably projected to play the SAME position, as most people think Gillespie will have to move to 2B sooner or later.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I’m pretty sure that 2B is harder than 3B (at least, the positional adjustment on FanGraphs is higher for 2B). SS is harder than 2B, so some SS do move over, but 2B is harder. So if Gillaspie and Bond are basically the same player (high walk rate, not much else), and Bond plays a move valuable position, then RIGHT NOW, Bond>Gillaspie. Gillaspie projects higher than Bond, though, so he’s probably a more valuable prospect, but my point was that pretty much all Gillaspie’s done to this point is walk.
And ML numbers>minor numbers, so players who are putting up the same numbers in the majors as Bond is in the minors are actually better at this point. The age/decline factor, and the fact that Bond is only 23, and therefore has room for improvement, I think suggest that Bond could be a successful ML-er. Right now, he couldn’t be, because despite the similarity in numbers, Bond is putting his up at a much easier level. I don’t think the Mays example is relevant at all for this reason; I’m not picking players that are at a certain point in their career, I just looked through all the players last season with a wOBA greater than .350 (i.e. higher than average) and a low ISO (sort of an arbitrary cutoff, I just picked low numbers).
I think the other thing to consider is that Bond doesn’t have to be a good hitter overall to be a contributor; the managment started Emmauel Freakin’ Burriss at 2nd last year, and pretty much all he’s got is speed and defense. When compared to hitters who are generally good, Bond doesn’t look great. But all he has to do is be higher than replacement level, which I think his OBP will bring him past.
I’m pretty sure that 2B is harder than 3B (at least, the positional adjustment on FanGraphs is higher for 2B).
Nope, same adjustment. Some guys are better suited to one or another (arm strength, reaction time, etc.) though.
I think the other thing to consider is that Bond doesn’t have to be a good hitter overall to be a contributor; the managment started Emmauel Freakin’ Burriss at 2nd last year, and pretty much all he’s got is speed and defense. When compared to hitters who are generally good, Bond doesn’t look great. But all he has to do is be higher than replacement level, which I think his OBP will bring him past.
Yikes. Bond does have to be a good hitter, since he’s awful defensively and his only step down is 1B due to his speed. Who the Giants have started in the past has ZERO to due with who is good or bad in the future. Lastly, the issue with replacement level and OBP, sure, if he can keep his OBP up he’ll be useful. The list of guys who can keep a high OBP with zero power is tiny though. That’s not a bet to take.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Oh, look, they have a glossary. I guess I should have clicked that instead of comparing players…oh well.
Yes, who the Giants have started in the past has zero to do with who will be good, but a lot to do with who they have available and who they will play. If we have zero good 2B, we still have to start someone, so we’ll go to who’s available. Bond has value to the organization if they don’t have anyone else, and probably more value than a better prospect who’s blocked. I don’t like to vote based on organizational need, just like I don’t like drafting based on organizational need, but I can’t help that factor from creeping into my brain.
Well comparing Gillapie to Bond they both play pretty much the same position (Gillaspie may well end up at 2B) and both have questionable defense. The reason i think Gillaspie is the better prospect is that i believe he’s a much better bet to be able to hit at the major league level.
Bond put up better superficial numbers last year (and they were pretty much the same ARL) but if you look beyond those numbers there are reasons to question Bond. One is that he has absolutely no power. As i commented on above his SLG is due to his high batting average, he had an ISO of .075 (compared to .10 for Gillaspie) and only managed 21 doubles (compared to 31 for Gillaspie). It isn’t park related either, as Evan aluded to above his groundball rate was 63% (for reference that’s higher than Burriss or Bocock managed in the minors, Gillaspie managed 39%) so unless he completely changes his swing he’s always going to be completely powerless.
As he’s completely powerless it’s unreasonable to expect his walk rate to do anything else than plummet as he faces major league pitchers who’ll just pound the strike zone without having to worry. None of those comparisons are particularly apt as they’ve all shown more power at the major league level than Bond has in the minors.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
There is one major-league regular who has Bond’s skill set to a T: Skip Schumaker. Extremely high ground-ball rates, no power, speed but not a base-stealer, subpar glove at second. Schumaker has managed a career .356 OBP and thus made himself useful to the Cards.
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