A look at ball players aging.
A tip of the cap to Lookout Landing for bring my attention to this PDF. Rather interesting stuff about the rate players production tend to change with age. It has pretty tables and graphs. I am sure the computers and Stats(tm) savvy among us have already seen this link but perhaps a few plodders are like me and have not.
about 2 years ago
daveinexile
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I will glance at this after finals! Read the 1st paragraph. Looks interesting.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 15, 2009 10:59 AM PST reply actions
10 yr 5000+’ers last longer. Duh?
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 11:08 AM PST reply actions
The decline is less fierce. I am skimming it now but not stay very focused, unfortunately. They have some nice sub sets broke down as well.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
Just seems far too obvious.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
To plodder like me the tables realy get my attention. A thumbnail amount to expect a player run production to change between age seasons is going to give a better chance to either got, or hate, the current age fettish the Giants front office is following. The over 1K P.A.’s sub set is intresting because so much of idea of replaceible talent falls into this group.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
It’s a really neat idea and you can tell a lot of work was done. Another obvious point that was made is that the players from 1980-present or whatevs are wearing down slower than the 1950-previous years players are.
Lets look at the players on steroids curves. That would be interesting.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
its not just steroids. Look at improvement in medicine
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 15, 2009 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
And conditioning in general. A guy makes it to the show now days he does not need to find work in the winter months to get by on. He can, should, be doing things like canyon throwing and hill running durring the off season. The isa huge differance.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
gotta be pretty strong to throw a canyon
Les Plack = more chicks
Dingerz.exe League Champs 2009- The Rile Rods...managed by yours truly.
by Headhunter Rollins on Dec 15, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
Not just conditioning, but also investment. It means more to teams to keep players at or near their peak because those players cost so damn much.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
Oh I agree. But a very large population of MLB’s were juicing tough. Enough to definitely skew the curves.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
Meh.
How are you gonna tell when it started and when it stopped?
Confounding factors:
Medicine
Increase Pay (as daveinexile says)
Better Scouting
manymany more
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 15, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
Meh.
The list keeps growing, and growing, and growing, and growing.
But overall sports science is a bigger reason than the roids.
But the roids were there big time.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
but tell me when roids started? Please define a specific year? Even decade?
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 15, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
That’s not the point here. They weren’t around pre 50’s. In MLB.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 1:19 PM PST up reply actions
If you believe Willie Mays.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
Please tell me how you know that? Post 50’s is a large time frame.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 15, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
It’s my impression that the Soviet bloc was doing pioneering work in athletic enhancement in the 60’s and early 70’s.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Dec 15, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions
Remeber roids were not around until Hank Aaron retired!
/not saying he used.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 15, 2009 2:13 PM PST up reply actions
The old Soviet Union was really good at most things, non-political.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions
Dude, that’s the timeframe being referenced. pre-50’s, post 50’s. Don’t know how else to put that.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions
So, the roids don’t factor in the pre-50’s group, and do factor in the post-50’s group.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 15, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions
As far as I’m aware, the earliest evidence for steroids in baseball is around the late ’60’s early ’70’s. Tom House admitted to using them back then.
by Missing Barry on Dec 15, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
You could say that about any of the things you listed
Can you tell me when “improved medicine” started? What about better scouting? Was there a certain day in September of 1972 when all teams fired their scouts and hired better ones?
I don’t see how steroids are any different.
I was promised lasagna.
That’s what I am trying to say. You can set arbitrary dates if you want. But everything has confounding effects.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 16, 2009 6:54 AM PST up reply actions
I didn’t pick the dates, just going off of the authors curves for pre-50’s/post 50’s. It just seems obvious that players post 50’s would last longer, regardless of circumstances involved.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 16, 2009 8:17 AM PST up reply actions
Pre 50’s WWI, WWII, Korean War, White-Angelo Saxon talent pool
Post 50’s Vietnam, larger talent pool.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 16, 2009 8:20 AM PST up reply actions
Interesting, race may come into play here? With the additions of more Negro and Latino players the curves for the post 50’s players became extended?
OT this is why I don’t give Babe as much credit as others.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 16, 2009 8:25 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, there are so many confounding factors in the longecity of a career its really hard to say that one thing caused it.
I also tend to believe that career longevity and steroids go go hand in hand. The peak my be higher and broader but I think careers may be shorter or suffer more of a drop off.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 16, 2009 8:30 AM PST up reply actions
True, unless they start using in the 30’s and continue to use until they’re done. I agree once a player comes off cold turkey the career will follow quickly.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 16, 2009 8:40 AM PST up reply actions
I also tend to believe that career longevity and steroids dont go hand in hand. The peak my be higher and broader but I think careers may be shorter or suffer more of a drop off.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 16, 2009 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
nah, it’s more like 10 yr 5000 players peak later and decline less.
Still not sure if that qualifies as not obvious, though.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
It would seem intutive but then how much in baseball “intutive” stuff have been shown to be faulty in the last 20-30 years? I would say an aweful lot.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
Bottom line. Intuitive =/= fact.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 15, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
thoughts
I haven’t read the whole pdf, but who’s the relevant population when it comes to free agents in their early 30s, late 20s?
I feel like the 10yr 5000 group might actually be more relevant to us when fretting over Brian Sabean’s latest triumphant FA signing.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/mgls_aging_study/
You really should get it from that link instead. Lots of in depth discussion in the comments, including a decent amount from the author of the study.
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